I don't think they'll win this case on the merits, but I don't think the legal argument is particularly far-fetched: if identifiable partisans are prohibited from serving on "independent" redistricting commissions (like the MI law allows), then the government is barring them from participating in what SCOTUS has called a strictly political process on the basis of their association with a political party.
It also bars parents, children, and spouses of those persons (siblings are OK unless you are married to them). It precludes precinct committeemen from serving.
Michigan does not have partisan registration. Voters select a party anonymously on the primary ballot.
It is entirely feasible for someone to declare they are Democrat, Republican, or neither, and have no way of checking. The commission will be chosen by lottery, with legislative leaders limited in their strikes.
Part of the claim of the lawsuit is due process, that the commission is supposed to be bipartisan, where Republicans are presumed to be pro-Republican and Democrats are presumed to be pro-Democratic, yet because Republican officials are excluded from the process there is no way to keep sleeper agents out of the commission.
Plus the criteria are backwards, with partisan "fairness" rating above compactness and integrity of legal subdivisions.
It is a political trainwreck that only the LWV could love.
