French Municipal elections - 2nd round 28 June 2020

[Zinneke]

https://www.france24.com/fr/20191119-airbnb-sponsor-olympique-anne-hidalgo-promet-referendum-apres-municipales

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/griveaux-je-suis-en-train-de-batir-une-relation-charnelle-avec-les-parisiens-20191117

https://www.nouvelobs.com/elections-municipales-2020/20191002.OBS19204/benalla-fait-il-campagne-a-saint-denis-pour-les-municipales.html

Nous y sommes...

[Zinneke]

Griveaux has withdrawn from the Paris race as he had a "sex tape" released by a Russian artist published while running on the family man image. He was tumbling in the polls anyway.

Macron had recently disenfranchised Villani, the dissident Marconiste candidate, from his movement. So poor timing for the President.

[Zinneke]

Hopefully altogether, France rejects EM and that makes the headline of the news. Idc which party wins as long it's not Macron's one. The entire left & right incl. far-right & far-left should unite against Macron under one banner. Macron's the biggest disaster for the country since WW2.

I think the handling of Algerian independence and the coup d'état attempt was a bigger disaster (that was, granted averted), and then you can add a bunch of stuff like Rainbow Warrior, Le Pen 2002, terrorist attacks, j'en passe...

[Zinneke]

Health Minister Agnes Buzyn replaces the disgraced Griveaux. It turns out the Russian artist, who has a history of doing crazy stunts against the Putin regime and, once exiled in Paris, also in the streets (such as stapling his goolies to the ground) leaked this video to show the world that politicians were more shamed for their sex scandals than stealing from the people. He is being defended by Insoumis darling boy, author and anti-Macronista Juan Branco.

How did the Russian artist have the video? It was his significant other who was the recipient!

One of the most Parisian political scandals imaginable. But also a bizarre reversing of the French consensus to leave private lives out of politics. Because although everybody condemned the revenge porn act, there is no denying that these affairs now whey on candidates whereas before a President could have a mistress without so much as a batting of an eyelid.

[Zinneke]

yes, I was shocked when I saw the headline "French politician withdraws from race due to affair" - I thought France was a place where people look down on their politicians if they don't have extra-marital flings?

There's rumours Griveaux just did it to save face in more ways than one. He was polling at something like 15% and Villani (the dissident LREM candidate) was catching him up. Griveaux is a pretty shameless guy, insinuated that Vilani was a virgin, has regularly attacked people off the record similar to Loiseau did at the EP. Dude in the end probably still loves his kids though and doesn't want them to grow up with his dick pics attached to their name.

I honestly think an ounce of puritanism would do the French political class a world of good, but that's just my opinion. I think the general consensus of French public opinion is that Griveaux is the victim and that he, under normal circumstances, should not have to withdraw on moral grounds, but rather from the fact that he is a unique idiot being a public figure sending dick pics with his name attached.

[Zinneke]

At this point it looks like it will be Hidalgo vs Dati imo. Buzyn doesn't seem to be taking off.

Buzyn is at 20% after a week of campaigning, already several points up from the slime ball she replaced, and she can perhaps count on Vilani's 8%. Add to that that the electoral system does not benefit Dati and I think Buzyn would be in a strong position but for the fact that time is running out.

But for sure the media are just dying for this election to be considered "the return of LR" on the French political scene. The reason this election in Paris has descended into a farce especially is because everyone knows that Paris goes beyond the arrondissements and most of the social, urban, logistic and economic problems should really be on Ile-de-France level. Its like packing Bruxelles-Ville with loads of mediatic candidates for an election and then asking them to solve the Belgian-wide congestion problem.

France desperately needs to evaluate its multi-level governance structures and look towards the German federal model (inc. their urban zones), and that also means decentralising certain government institutions from Paris. Unfortunately you will never teach ENArques what it means to be from the Province, they prefer to cite Racine and Gracet in Parisian cocktail saloons...

[Zinneke]

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

Because it creates an extremely dodgy constitutional precedent if you don't under these circumstances, and honestly it should be up to electorates to use their head a bit and plan ahead as to avoid large queues and crowds, wash their hands, and wear a mask. We seem to have an app for everything these days, maybe design one to plan this situation.

[Zinneke]

Given that the idiotic decision to go ahead with these elections has clearly contributed to a further worsening of the crisis, should there not be consequences?

No proof of that really...from a bunch of acquaintances I know on the ground they said the measures taken at the ballot boxes we're far more stringent than say, your local supermarket.

[Zinneke]

At the very least, we might see these results as room for cautious optimism that the French left has arrested its recent vertiginous decline - something that needed to happen before it can move forward.

I'm pessimistic because there is sh**t turnout and the inevitable egos will clash when it comes to the Presidency. Which in turn just puts people off.

[Zinneke]

At the very least, we might see these results as room for cautious optimism that the French left has arrested its recent vertiginous decline - something that needed to happen before it can move forward.

I'm pessimistic because there is sh**t turnout and the inevitable egos will clash when it comes to the Presidency. Which in turn just puts people off.

Faure has already said PS is ready to back an EELV candidate. I'm sure  Mélenchon will still do his thing, but given how much of a failure he's been so far, I could see his support implode as left-wing voters consolidate to stop another FBM-Panzergirl matchup.

It still depends on whether EELV has a decent candidate to run, of course. That hasn't worked out well for them in the past.

PS and EELV will likely not be the only people claiming the space between Mélenchon and Macron though.

[Zinneke]

if the centre-left were smart they'd organize some sort of preliminary primary between EELV, G.S, PS etc to avoid the standard clown-car scuppering their chances off the bat.

The Left have systemically, during the course of the 5th Republic, believed that in a two round presidential system there is no need for a primary, as the first round is the primary for them. Therein lies the issue, and why they are doomed until they effectively dissavow the 5th Republic model. And that doesn't mean Mélenchon's Bolivarian 6th Republic pipe dream that maintains the same stale Jacobine model outdated for the world today.

[Zinneke]

It seems to me that Anne Hidalgo would be the candidate of the French left with the most mass appeal, no?

No.
There is an old adage that being Mayor of Paris is a good stepping stone to being President of France. I imagine Chirac inspired this idea the most. It's becoming as clichéd as the New York or London gig (future PM/President material aaah)
But for one she is still too PS apparatchik so soon after Hollande. She'd be tone deaf to run knowing she'd be seen as an opportunist for running a year into her second term. She is still relatively young and the PS is still too toxic a brand. She's biding her time probably. But more importantly she's a seriously bland politician.

In fact I don't understand why some have cheerleader her on here : what has been her great achievement in the Capital? It's still overpriced, dirty, public spaces are not maintained, most of the public service classes like nurses and firemen and police have to live outside of her juridiction (but still consider themselves Parisian) resulting in the car Vs "real Parisians needed a car-less city " debate being obsolete (unlike Brussels), and she did not have the spunk to run on a demand for institutional change when she has a voice in the matter. Hell the EELV guy was right :  knock down the petite couronne and have one Greater Paris region with competences from the Mayor at the Regional level. This isn't a poor city. It can maintain high quality public services if it wanted to. Hidalgo had the chance to reach out to reform Macron and failed.

[Zinneke]

She is still relatively young.

She's only young relative to the dinosaurs running in the US Presidential election. She's 18 years older than Macron, and 9 years older than Panzergirl. Looking at heads of government around Europe, she's older than Johnson, Sánchez, Rutte, Orbán, Conte, Kurz, Duda, Mitsotakis among others.

She's only 5 years younger than Merkel who's been Chacellor of Germany since most posters on this site were still wearing diapers.

I really fail to see how she is so young that she can sit out 2022 and run in later presidential elections. If she wants to be president, 2022 seems like the ideal time to do it, or she'll be old news.

She still has time to wait until the scars of Hollande 2012-2017 have dissipated is what I mean. Juppé was going to run at 71, Chirac ran in 2002 at a quite grand old age. 
Do you seriously believe someone like Hidalgo can run a successful united left ticket in 2022? Its totally unrealistic.

[Zinneke]

She still has time to wait until the scars of Hollande 2012-2017 have dissipated is what I mean. Juppé was going to run at 71, Chirac ran in 2002 at a quite grand old age.  
Do you seriously believe someone like Hidalgo can run a successful united left ticket in 2022? Its totally unrealistic.

The idea of anyone being a successful unity left-wing candidate is unrealistic. We're talking about the left... in France.

I'm guessing Hidalgo would crash and burn if she ran in 2022, but I really doubt her prospects would be better in 2027, especially considering her age, which already is relatively old compared to most leading politicians in France and Europe already and will be even more so 7 years from now.

Well again, she would have to be tone deaf to run in 2022 after running a mayoral election 2 years before knowing she could fall flat on her face very easily. She is far more likely to run in 2027 if she learnt anything from her mentor Delanoe, who also considered a bid during his protracted term.

She would not be old by French presidential standards. Macron is just exceptionally young. As are the new "fresh faces". There is of course a generational politics aspect behind it (although Macron is more popular with the elderly) - but Hidalgo was always seen as a moderniser.

[Zinneke]

Marseilles is an almighty shambles, with a potential secret, Thuringian style closed ballot alliance between the LR and the RN candidates to secure the mayorality as the "left block" is divided. LR even changed their candidate to soften up the RN stance of "Ni-Ni".