French Municipal elections - 2nd round 28 June 2020

[Tirnam]

As per the new law just passed, if the runoff can't be held before the end of June, both rounds will be redone.

In other words, last Sunday 20 million people went out and exposed themselves to serious health risks to perform their civic duties for nothing. This government is a disgrace.

Once again, how the government is the only responsable? The municipal elections take place in March, it's in the law, therefore the government can not, by its own decision, postponing the elections.
All oppositions parties refuse to postpone the election.

They didn't need opposition parties to pass a law postponing elections. Widespread opposition has never stopped this government from shoving laws down parliament's throat before.

They needed the Senate. The president of the Senate was among the one most furious at the idea of postponing the election.
And do you really think that in a democracy the government should decide to postpone an election without the agreement of the opposition?

I'm not saying that the government handled it well. I'm saying that it's a massive failure of every member of the French political class, from the government and the opposition.
But now everyone should take their responsibilities, in the government and in the opposition. Those who pressured the government to hold the elections cannot blame it for doing so.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, you don't have to tell me the French right sucks. I've been loathing The Republicans since before they called themselves that, for as long as I've been attentive to politics. But in France's hyper-majoritarian government, it's very clear where responsibility lies. The government can, in practice, get its way on almost anything. And so when things go wrong, it's the government's fault. Period.

[Tirnam]

I really can't understand how the government can decide to postpone an election without the Senate's approval.
I guess the only option to do it was to invoke article 16. And clearly that is way too extreme.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really can't understand how the government can decide to postpone an election without the Senate's approval.
I guess the only option to do it was to invoke article 16. And clearly that is way too extreme.

The same way all the governments of the Fifth Republic override the Senate every time it tries to oppose anything. It's a routine procedure.

Would the right have cried bloody murder over it? Sure. That just means they'd end up with an egg on their face when the government is proven right and the epidemic ramps up.

[MaxQue]

I really can't understand how the government can decide to postpone an election without the Senate's approval.
I guess the only option to do it was to invoke article 16. And clearly that is way too extreme.

The same way all the governments of the Fifth Republic override the Senate every time it tries to oppose anything. It's a routine procedure.

Would the right have cried bloody murder over it? Sure. That just means they'd end up with an egg on their face when the government is proven right and the epidemic ramps up.

From what I understand, the President of Senate was ready to refer everything to the Constitionnal Council, through.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really can't understand how the government can decide to postpone an election without the Senate's approval.
I guess the only option to do it was to invoke article 16. And clearly that is way too extreme.

The same way all the governments of the Fifth Republic override the Senate every time it tries to oppose anything. It's a routine procedure.

Would the right have cried bloody murder over it? Sure. That just means they'd end up with an egg on their face when the government is proven right and the epidemic ramps up.

From what I understand, the President of Senate was ready to refer everything to the Constitionnal Council, through.

So what? The Council would have no basis for striking down the law. There is ample precedent for this.

[MaxQue]

I really can't understand how the government can decide to postpone an election without the Senate's approval.
I guess the only option to do it was to invoke article 16. And clearly that is way too extreme.

The same way all the governments of the Fifth Republic override the Senate every time it tries to oppose anything. It's a routine procedure.

Would the right have cried bloody murder over it? Sure. That just means they'd end up with an egg on their face when the government is proven right and the epidemic ramps up.

From what I understand, the President of Senate was ready to refer everything to the Constitionnal Council, through.

So what? The Council would have no basis for striking down the law. There is ample precedent for this.

The issue would be the incertainty caused by the whole process.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever. The government could have at least TRIED to do something to stop this madness, and it didn't even do that. All the excuses and equivocation in the world can't change that.

[parochial boy]

Discussions on when to hold the second round surfacing today. A bunch of notable local elected representatives (inc Anne Hidalgo and Christian Estrosi) have signed an editorial in the Journal du Dimanche asking for the second round to be held by then end of June. The 21st or 28th preferably. On the basis that the current delays are stopping anything happening (budgeting, infrastructure planning and so on).

Any later would require the first round to be held again in the 5'000 odd municipalities in which require a second round. In that case, September/October or spring 2021 have been suggested. Problem with the former is the unfolding economic crisis; and with the latter is, well, there are already regional and departmental elections scheduled for 2021. Which would make for quite a year.

Hopefully the people responsible pay for this at the ballot box.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, at this point June 28th is the best choice we have. Having to redo the first round and wait months and months to elect all the mayors of major cities would be an absolute debacle.

[PSOL]

What is the Trotskyist candidate doing so far? Can someone give me the rundown of what happened in that municipality and it’s theoretical future?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, at this point June 28th is the best choice we have. Having to redo the first round and wait months and months to elect all the mayors of major cities would be an absolute debacle.

Will the conditions then actually be any worse than when the first round went ahead anyway?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, at this point June 28th is the best choice we have. Having to redo the first round and wait months and months to elect all the mayors of major cities would be an absolute debacle.

Will the conditions then actually be any worse than when the first round went ahead anyway?

I honestly have no idea. I hope that the situation has improved enough that, with basic precautions and appropriate distancing, the election can be held without much risk, but I'm not familiar enough with the situation in France to say.

[GlobeSoc]

Sorry for my ignorance but what's the current political situation with these elections?

[Keep Calm and ...]

Second round on 28 June.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1263791610350972929

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that is modestly encouraging on more than one level.

[parochial boy]

What is the Trotskyist candidate doing so far? Can someone give me the rundown of what happened in that municipality and it’s theoretical future?

Assuming you mean Philippe Poutou in Bordeaux? He stood as the head of a joint Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste (his own party, the continuation of Alain Krivine and Olivier Besancenot's Ligue Communiste Révolutionnaire, a Trotskyite but also very soixante-huitard influenced outfit) and France Insoumise stood a joint list which got 12% in the first round, meaning it is qualified for the second round and he should get elected to the municipal council in the second round.

It looks as if there haven't been any alliances for the second round - so him, Thomas Cazenave (LREM), Nicolas Florian (LR) and Pierre Hurmic (PS) are all still standing on their own lists. Florian is the incumbent mayor, having replaced Alain Juppé (who replaced Chaban-Delmas before him), and Bordeaux has been a LR/UMP fief at the municipal level basically for ever. It's by reputation a pretty bourgeois town, traditionally trade (a, um, rather specific kind of trade) and business (and, obviously, viticultural) oriented economically, and has kept on electing right wing mayors, even while becoming reliably left wing in other elections. Hollande got 58% in 2012 and Mélenchongand Hamon still got over 33% combined even in 2017.

Having said that, it was very close between Hurmic and Florian in the first round, so there might be a degree of tactical voting in an attempt to get the left into power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, that is modestly encouraging on more than one level.

Yeah, that was the right thing to do. Hopefully it can be done with maximum safety.

[parochial boy]

Reasonably interesting of the RN vote from the Jean-Jaurès foundation (PS aligned, so watch out). Basically, despite the eye catching scores of a few incumbents, notably Steeve Briois in Hénin-Beaumont, they didn't do all that well. They had a strategy of consolidating resources around towns with better prospects, but despite this, only 136 of 262 lists cleared the 10% hurdle this year - compared to 317 out of 369 in 2014. And some fairly notable drops across the country.

Factor in LREM's poor performances - dissapointing across the big towns, notably including Gérard Collomb's third place in Lyon métropole - and it doesn't look that convincing for the fabled realignment of French politics around the Souverainiste and Progressiste wings. I mean, yeah, municipals are a bit unusual and rely more on local notable figures, of which LREM and RN both have relatively few. But still...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Reasonably interesting of the RN vote from the Jean-Jaurès foundation (PS aligned, so watch out). Basically, despite the eye catching scores of a few incumbents, notably Steeve Briois in Hénin-Beaumont, they didn't do all that well. They had a strategy of consolidating resources around towns with better prospects, but despite this, only 136 of 262 lists cleared the 10% hurdle this year - compared to 317 out of 369 in 2014. And some fairly notable drops across the country.

Factor in LREM's poor performances - dissapointing across the big towns, notably including Gérard Collomb's third place in Lyon métropole - and it doesn't look that convincing for the fabled realignment of French politics around the Souverainiste and Progressiste wings. I mean, yeah, municipals are a bit unusual and rely more on local notable figures, of which LREM and RN both have relatively few. But still...

One thing to consider is the record high abstention. The FN vote tends to be highly turnout-sensitive given its demographics, so it's possible that a lot of their underperformance was a result of that.

[parochial boy]

Reasonably interesting of the RN vote from the Jean-Jaurès foundation (PS aligned, so watch out). Basically, despite the eye catching scores of a few incumbents, notably Steeve Briois in Hénin-Beaumont, they didn't do all that well. They had a strategy of consolidating resources around towns with better prospects, but despite this, only 136 of 262 lists cleared the 10% hurdle this year - compared to 317 out of 369 in 2014. And some fairly notable drops across the country.

Factor in LREM's poor performances - dissapointing across the big towns, notably including Gérard Collomb's third place in Lyon métropole - and it doesn't look that convincing for the fabled realignment of French politics around the Souverainiste and Progressiste wings. I mean, yeah, municipals are a bit unusual and rely more on local notable figures, of which LREM and RN both have relatively few. But still...

One thing to consider is the record high abstention. The FN vote tends to be highly turnout-sensitive given its demographics, so it's possible that a lot of their underperformance was a result of that.

Yeah, although here is a map of the increase in abstention from the same source.


Obviously, you can't make too many inferences from it, as it might have been disproportionately FN voters not turning out across the board. But, it does seem like you have been surges in abstention in both strong (Provence, the Rhône and Garonne valleys) and weak (Brittany and the Inner West) FN areas - and the smaller surges in both strong (Ardennes, Champagne, Bourgogne) and weak (Paris, Pyrenees, Massif Central) areas. It's a pretty unusual looking map, but it would seem to imply that FN voting areas at least weren't abstaining in greater numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating map. It looks like in most of France, higher abstention correlates strongly with population density, but the relationship is reversed in Ile-de-France. So you get a map with Paris and the "empty diagonal" on one side, and everything else on the other side. I guess part of the issue was that abstention was already very high in the Paris area, so there was less room for it to grow.

I'd still ascribe a big share of the FN drop to abstention, but there was definitely more going on, for sure.

[parochial boy]

On another topic, crocodile tears at the ready, but (ex-)Lyon mayor Gérard Collomb (and ex-Socialist) makes an alliance with LR for the second round, whereby he steps down in favour of the LR candidate for the Lyon métropole; and they return the favour for LREM's Yann Cucherat in the municipality. LREM promptly disown the alliance and withdraw their support for Collomb and Cucherat - meaning the end of an era for Collomb's Lyon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On another topic, crocodile tears at the ready, but (ex-)Lyon mayor Gérard Collomb (and ex-Socialist) makes an alliance with LR for the second round, whereby he steps down in favour of the LR candidate for the Lyon métropole; and they return the favour for LREM's Yann Cucherat in the municipality. LREM promptly disown the alliance and withdraw their support for Collomb and Cucherat - meaning the end of an era for Collomb's Lyon.

Do you think that might allow the PS candidate to pull it off?

[parochial boy]

On another topic, crocodile tears at the ready, but (ex-)Lyon mayor Gérard Collomb (and ex-Socialist) makes an alliance with LR for the second round, whereby he steps down in favour of the LR candidate for the Lyon métropole; and they return the favour for LREM's Yann Cucherat in the municipality. LREM promptly disown the alliance and withdraw their support for Collomb and Cucherat - meaning the end of an era for Collomb's Lyon.

Do you think that might allow the PS candidate to pull it off?

EÉLV have the best shot I think, they're trying to sort out a joint left list for the second round, but still to be seen if they pull it off. I'd imagine they should win Lyon Municipalty, but the métropole will be tricker - I think David Kimelfeld as a third wheel will be interesting to watch if he pulls a big chunk of Collomb's support, but don't really know.