French Municipal elections - 2nd round 28 June 2020

[windjammer]

I think Dati can win. Unlikely though

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/sondage-a-paris-rachida-dati-passe-devant-anne-hidalgo-3952511?Echobox=1583016066&fbclid=IwAR2Dq9ovOyazfP1blmpDFU6MhA0jkB_kSzLEBwkWsPNrd5MzZJYFBpnBiNk#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

Rachida Dati is now polling above Anne Hidalgo.

[Lechasseur]

I think Dati can win. Unlikely though

Agreed, she can win and now it's looking possible.

[Lechasseur]

At this point it looks like it will be Hidalgo vs Dati imo. Buzyn doesn't seem to be taking off.

[windjammer]

I think Dati can win. Unlikely though

Agreed, she can win and now it's looking possible.

Indeed,
I suspect th Buzyn voters will hurt more Hidalgo than Dati, that's why I sincerely believe Dati has a chance. She has been cementing her position with the traditional rightwing voters.

[Zinneke]

At this point it looks like it will be Hidalgo vs Dati imo. Buzyn doesn't seem to be taking off.

Buzyn is at 20% after a week of campaigning, already several points up from the slime ball she replaced, and she can perhaps count on Vilani's 8%. Add to that that the electoral system does not benefit Dati and I think Buzyn would be in a strong position but for the fact that time is running out.

But for sure the media are just dying for this election to be considered "the return of LR" on the French political scene. The reason this election in Paris has descended into a farce especially is because everyone knows that Paris goes beyond the arrondissements and most of the social, urban, logistic and economic problems should really be on Ile-de-France level. Its like packing Bruxelles-Ville with loads of mediatic candidates for an election and then asking them to solve the Belgian-wide congestion problem.

France desperately needs to evaluate its multi-level governance structures and look towards the German federal model (inc. their urban zones), and that also means decentralising certain government institutions from Paris. Unfortunately you will never teach ENArques what it means to be from the Province, they prefer to cite Racine and Gracet in Parisian cocktail saloons...

[windjammer]

At this point it looks like it will be Hidalgo vs Dati imo. Buzyn doesn't seem to be taking off.

Buzyn is at 20% after a week of campaigning, already several points up from the slime ball she replaced, and she can perhaps count on Vilani's 8%. Add to that that the electoral system does not benefit Dati and I think Buzyn would be in a strong position but for the fact that time is running out.

But for sure the media are just dying for this election to be considered "the return of LR" on the French political scene. The reason this election in Paris has descended into a farce especially is because everyone knows that Paris goes beyond the arrondissements and most of the social, urban, logistic and economic problems should really be on Ile-de-France level. Its like packing Bruxelles-Ville with loads of mediatic candidates for an election and then asking them to solve the Belgian-wide congestion problem.

France desperately needs to evaluate its multi-level governance structures and look towards the German federal model (inc. their urban zones), and that also means decentralising certain government institutions from Paris. Unfortunately you will never teach ENArques what it means to be from the Province, they prefer to cite Racine and Gracet in Parisian cocktail saloons...

The medias are often garbage but they don't have a bias for Dati. She's simply gaining in the polls.

[parochial boy]

At this point it looks like it will be Hidalgo vs Dati imo. Buzyn doesn't seem to be taking off.

Buzyn is at 20% after a week of campaigning, already several points up from the slime ball she replaced, and she can perhaps count on Vilani's 8%. Add to that that the electoral system does not benefit Dati and I think Buzyn would be in a strong position but for the fact that time is running out.

But for sure the media are just dying for this election to be considered "the return of LR" on the French political scene. The reason this election in Paris has descended into a farce especially is because everyone knows that Paris goes beyond the arrondissements and most of the social, urban, logistic and economic problems should really be on Ile-de-France level. Its like packing Bruxelles-Ville with loads of mediatic candidates for an election and then asking them to solve the Belgian-wide congestion problem.

France desperately needs to evaluate its multi-level governance structures and look towards the German federal model (inc. their urban zones), and that also means decentralising certain government institutions from Paris. Unfortunately you will never teach ENArques what it means to be from the Province, they prefer to cite Racine and Gracet in Parisian cocktail saloons...

Yep, and on that note, Libé actually did a pretty interesting overview of the races in several communes in Seine-Saint-Denis a few weeks ago.

As for decentralisation, yes, absolutely. But I'd be a little bit cautious of just thinking the job would be done by moving a few institutions to Lyon or Strasbourg. Most of the proposed decentralisation projects in France still involve a big concentration of power around the regional metropolises and especially the city cores; which I don't think is necessarily a great idea in a country that has the problems France actually has. Ideally, I think some sort of reinforcement of powers at the departmental level should happen, but the departments aren't exactly fashionable at the moment, so pipe dream heh...

[parochial boy]

Seems like the first round is still taking place, uh, stay tuned for the second one.* Turnout will be dreadful, and old people in particular staying at home out of precaution could have a rather noteworthy effect on results. Not necessarily good for LREM or LR that is.

*it was thought Macron might postpone the elections in his speech last night. He didn't

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is actual madness.

[Umengus]

This is actual madness.

yep, it's madness. Just tonight again, there are discussions to postpone the polling date

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is actual madness.

Clearly French public officials are taking the situation very seriously.

[parochial boy]

To be fair, considering stereotypes about their dietary preferences - the average Breton is probably a walking disinfectant already anyway

[Tirnam]

Turnout at noon: 18.38%, down 4.8 points compared to 2014.
If the trend continues it could be a 50% turnout.

[Mike88]

Turnout at noon: 18.38%, down 4.8 points compared to 2014.
If the trend continues it could be a 50% turnout.

Not bad, considering the current situation. We'll see. The next update will be at 17:00h, right?

[Velasco]

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

[Zinneke]

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

Because it creates an extremely dodgy constitutional precedent if you don't under these circumstances, and honestly it should be up to electorates to use their head a bit and plan ahead as to avoid large queues and crowds, wash their hands, and wear a mask. We seem to have an app for everything these days, maybe design one to plan this situation.

[Tirnam]

Turnout at noon: 18.38%, down 4.8 points compared to 2014.
If the trend continues it could be a 50% turnout.

Not bad, considering the current situation. We'll see. The next update will be at 17:00h, right?

Yes. I was expected a much lower turnout.
That's right, 5pm. We should have the first estimate by the pollsters for the final turnout a few moments after that.

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

Apparently Macron wanted to postpone the elections but LR leaders (Lacher Leader of the Senate, Jacob LR Leader in the National Assembly, Baroin Head of the Association of Mayors) told him that if he do that they will say that it is like a coup.
And it is in the law that these elections take place in March. To change the date you had to change the law. It is hard to do that in just a few days, when Parliament is not in session and when the majority party in the Senate is opposed to the postponement of the elections.

[Mike88]

Turnout at noon: 18.38%, down 4.8 points compared to 2014.
If the trend continues it could be a 50% turnout.

Not bad, considering the current situation. We'll see. The next update will be at 17:00h, right?

Yes. I was expected a much lower turnout.
That's right, 5pm. We should have the first estimate by the pollsters for the final turnout a few moments after that.

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

Apparently Macron wanted to postpone the elections but LR leaders (Lacher Leader of the Senate, Jacob LR Leader in the National Assembly, Baroin Head of the Association of Mayors) told him that if he do that they will say that it is like a coup.
And it is in the law that these elections take place in March. To change the date you had to change the law. It is hard to do that in just a few days, when Parliament is not in session and when the majority party in the Senate is opposed to the postponement of the elections.

And, curiously, there are a few areas where turnout is higher than in 2014, as at 12:00h:
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1239190573862522880

[Tirnam]

Turnout at 5pm: 38.77%, down 16 points compared to 2014

Ifop estimates the final turnout at 44%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, this is a disaster.

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

Because it creates an extremely dodgy constitutional precedent

It really doesn't. Local elections have been postponed by decree before (by one full year in 2008!). It's not particularly novel or controversial.

[parochial boy]

TF1 reporting Édouard Philippe ahead in Le Havre, Nicolar Mayer-Rossignol (PS) ahead of the Greens in Rouen,  Louis Aliot (FN) ahead in Perpignan. And Martine Aubry ahead in Lille.

[Tirnam]

God, this is a disaster.

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

Because it creates an extremely dodgy constitutional precedent

It really doesn't. Local elections have been postponed by decree before (by one full year in 2008!). It's not particularly novel or controversial.

It was by a law.

Some results: two ministers (Riester and Darmanin) are elected in the first round.
At Lille Aubry (29%) is sightly ahead of EELV (24%), LREM (17%).
Besançon EELV is ahead

[Tirnam]

It seems that a consensus is emerging tonight among political leaders for postponing the second round.
I don't know how it can be done (I mean you won't postpone it for one or two weeks but at least 3 months).

[windjammer]

Well,
Coronavirus is terrible but I like this kind of solidary and unity emerging between all French people.