French Municipal elections - 2nd round 28 June 2020

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

On another topic, crocodile tears at the ready, but (ex-)Lyon mayor Gérard Collomb (and ex-Socialist) makes an alliance with LR for the second round, whereby he steps down in favour of the LR candidate for the Lyon métropole; and they return the favour for LREM's Yann Cucherat in the municipality. LREM promptly disown the alliance and withdraw their support for Collomb and Cucherat - meaning the end of an era for Collomb's Lyon.

Do you think that might allow the PS candidate to pull it off?

EÉLV have the best shot I think, they're trying to sort out a joint left list for the second round, but still to be seen if they pull it off. I'd imagine they should win Lyon Municipalty, but the métropole will be tricker - I think David Kimelfeld as a third wheel will be interesting to watch if he pulls a big chunk of Collomb's support, but don't really know.

Did LREM decided who will they support in city and in the metro?

[parochial boy]

On another topic, crocodile tears at the ready, but (ex-)Lyon mayor Gérard Collomb (and ex-Socialist) makes an alliance with LR for the second round, whereby he steps down in favour of the LR candidate for the Lyon métropole; and they return the favour for LREM's Yann Cucherat in the municipality. LREM promptly disown the alliance and withdraw their support for Collomb and Cucherat - meaning the end of an era for Collomb's Lyon.

Do you think that might allow the PS candidate to pull it off?

EÉLV have the best shot I think, they're trying to sort out a joint left list for the second round, but still to be seen if they pull it off. I'd imagine they should win Lyon Municipalty, but the métropole will be tricker - I think David Kimelfeld as a third wheel will be interesting to watch if he pulls a big chunk of Collomb's support, but don't really know.

Did LREM decided who will they support in city and in the metro?

Not that I have seen - although from what I have seen the bigger issue for them seems to be the Laurent Wauquiez link rather than an alliance with the right in principle. There have been LR-LREM alliances elsewhere, eg in Thomas Cazenave has swung behing Nicolas Florian in Bordeaux, and it seems like there will also be alliances in Clermont-Ferrand among others.

[parochial boy]

6 days to go, a couple of last minute updates.

In Lyon municipality, the left formed a joint list around EÉLV candidate Grégory Doucet, and now seem favoured to win it. Not sure what's what with the metro.

In Lille, Martine Aubry looks like she is being seriously threated by EÉLV's Stéphane Baly. Some degree of fatigue with her settling in I think.

Most interesting in Marseille, which is starting to look like a serious possibility of a win for the left. EÉLV, PS, LFI and the PCF have all united around Michèle Rubirola. In recent days, a poll come out showing her edging out LR's (previously hot favourite) Martine Vassal by 36% to 29%. This has been made worse by a split in the right camp, dissident Bruno Gilles staying in the race separately from Vassal; but also, over the last couple of days accusations of members of Vassal's list trying to organise some instances of absentee voting fraud have emerged. Which obviously doesn't look good.

Fwiw, Marseille's municipal council is elected the same way as Lyon and Paris - that is by "secteur " (a secteur is two arrondissements, basically), with the win bonus coming at the Secteur level, not for Marseille as a whole. Would be a surprising and very welcome win for the left if they did get Marseille back, having lost the city back in 1995.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And having, of course, previously controlled most of the time after 1919, and continuously from 1953.

[RodPresident]

Looks that EELV can be heavily favourite to be main left-wing force in 2022 presidential elections...

[parochial boy]

Possibly, but municipal elections hinge a lot around local notables rather than party labels. Michèle Rubirola is an EÉLV member, but there was actually a separate EÉLV standing against her in the first round. That's also why the PS seem to have held on much better than in other post-Hollande elections. LR too, although their scores were rather more disspointing than expected. And if EÉLV did well in a number of larger villes-centres (not sure how to try this into English, but essentially the main town of any metro area), even in the neighbouring suburban communes their scores were much less convincing. For instance, they finished behind other left wing lists in a lot of the towns surrounding Grenoble, which should theoretically be one of their stronger metro areas.

That is before you even start on how weak they are away from the big urban areas, eg the below from the Jean Jaurès foundation showing their score by canton at the Europeans.



I'm also not very convinced by Yannick Jadot either, on that matter.

[Tirnam]

Alliot (RN) has won in Perpignan
PM Philippe elected with 59% in Le Havre
EELV makes several gains already (Besançon, Poitiers)

[Tirnam]

Aubry in danger in Lille
40% EELV
39% Aubry
(TF1 exit poll)

[Andrea]

Mathieu Klein (PS) gain Nancy over the incumbent Laurent Hénart with 55%

In Reunion
Huguette Bello gains St Paul with 60%
Ericka Bareigts (PS) wins in St Denis with 58.7%

[parochial boy]

Olivier Faure having a massive go at Sibeth Ndiaye and talking up the EÉLV-PS-left alliances on France 2. Quite funny to watch to be honest.

Seems to be looking good for the greens (and left) so far, and predictably bad for LREM

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout really is dismal... I was hoping things would be better now that the bulk of the pandemic has passed and the electoral infrastructure is hopefully better organized to deal with it. Can't blame the voters for still being afraid, though.

[Tirnam]

EELV takes Lyon

[Antonio the Sixth]

EELV takes Lyon

Good riddance Collomb, don't let the door hit you

[Andrea]

63.14% for Le Foll in Le Mans

[Antonio the Sixth]

EELV seems to be ahead in Bordeaux and Strasbourg as well

[Antonio the Sixth]

Paris estimate:
Hidalgo 49.3%
Dati 32.7%
Buzyn 13.7%

My Queen Is Alive

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yup, Bordeaux is flipping.

Somehow it looks like Moudenc might survive in Toulouse, though.

[Andrea]

Aubry's entourage says she won in Lille

[Antonio the Sixth]

The left union appears to have won the 6th district of Marseille. If so, it would probably have a plurality in the municipal council.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Marseille estimate:
Rubirola 39.9%
Vassal 29.8%
Ravier 19.8%

VERY big if true.

[parochial boy]

Marseille estimate:
Rubirola 39.9%
Vassal 29.8%
Ravier 19.8%

VERY big if true.

Flipping Marseille and Bordeaux, winning Lyon and keeping Paris pretty much out do anything else that could have happened by themselves. Looks like there's still a spark of life still there in the French left after all.

Also seems to be anyone's guess as to whether Philippe stays on as PM or takes on the reigns in Le Havre. Which could mean a fund reshuffle for Macron in the next few weeks.

[PSOL]

What are the results in Bordeaux?

[Andrea]

What are the results in Bordeaux?

Estimation by Ipsos  one hour ago was

 Pierre Hurmic (EELV-PS-PCF) 46,8 %
 Nicolas Florian (LR-MoDem-LREM) 43,2 %
 Philippe Poutou (NPA-LFI) 10 % 

[parochial boy]

Looks like the EÉLV list has won in Lyon Métropole as well as in Lyon city.

The Greens even winning in Annecy! My God.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like the EÉLV list has won in Lyon Métropole as well as in Lyon city.

Yup. What a humiliation for Collomb. This is the traitor's reward.