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January 16, 2021, 07:32:02 AM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?  (Read 3139 times)
The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
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« on: September 11, 2019, 02:19:13 PM »

What are the chances that either that the next Democratic president is either 1) some famous person not really into politics yet, 2) some low-level party official or local government person, or 3) is just some lawyer, banker, scientist, or bureaucrat somewhere?
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The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 26,116
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2020, 06:48:53 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2020, 07:14:12 AM by 10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill.. »

At this point, it would probably depend on what the prevailing narrative is about why Democrats lost. It would almost certainly be a very ugly primary, with the current divide in the Democratic Party getting more severe and reaching a boiling point.

The three reasons why I see a possible loss in is 2020 is that-

1) Biden wasn't liberal enough and was a very weak candidate. He was too conservative, too old, and had an awkward style that made people uncomfortable the way even more aggressive styles didn't.(Especially if Democrats keeps the house) Depending on how the economy is in 2024, we should probably go with Buttigieg if the economy is "normal" again, or AOC if it is struggling.
 
2) The Democratic Brand is toxic. A lot of people were saying this out of 2004.  (Especially if Democrats lose the house)   That's how a lot of moderates and conservatives got into office. We will be back to Howard Dean saying we need to win voters of people who have confederate flags on their pick up trucks. I would say to double down and wait for people to listen but after this year, I don't know when that would ever be. We could always try someone like Gabbard in 2024. She resonates a lot more with the base than Biden would and is pretty Trumpish (many I don't like) but she is strong on domestic policy. She could be a "Bill Clinton" like character. That is, someone the national democrats would never trust until it was apparent they weren't trusted by the electorate. (A Trumpy narrative) Someone who could run on a "liberalish" platform that would be seen as too liberal and too moderate at the same time by the base but also someone who could wedge enough votes back. It wouldn't necessarily have to be Gabbard and might even be someone much stranger or someone not in politics right now.

It would just have to be someone who

1) Under the age of 50, preferably under the age of 45
2) Someone who is either not a white straight male or an "outsider"
3) Someone who is going to push for substantial Medicare expansion (MMA, Medicare at 50, or an affordable buy in for Medicare or Medicaid)
4) Someone who will aggressively protect or restore the judiciary and if it's already too late, someone who will find a way to "chip away" at the new power of states in question.
5) Most importantly, someone who is still willing to fight the Democratic base on issues that matter to poor and near-poor voters of all backgrounds whether its trade,  or immigration.


3) All the corruption of Trump administration can and does "trickle down" when "they" need it to. The economy quickly recovered making Trump look like this great president on election day. Who knows how to get out of this. Basically, we've reached a point where democracy doesn't function because the banks and large estates are so powerful that they can "shut down" or "open" the economy the bribe, reward, and punish voters.
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The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 26,116
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2020, 02:21:16 PM »

At this point, it would probably depend on what the prevailing narrative is about why Democrats lost. It would almost certainly be a very ugly primary, with the current divide in the Democratic Party getting more severe and reaching a boiling point.
Yeah, it'll be a sh**tshow.  AOC will be polling high even if she ultimately doesn't run.  That's the sort of desperation we'll see.

What do you think the narrative would be?
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The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 26,116
United States


« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2020, 08:39:57 AM »

Since this question was posed, Newsom has seen his stock rise, possibly dramatically.  JPK's stock also seems to be rising.  I don't know if Inslee will ever be viable, but his recent leadership on the public health front would help his cause if he wants to try again.  Bullock is also building a strong record and could easily get more DC attention as a senator in 2024.

Whitmer, the Squad, all of the Northeast Dem governors (nursing home screwups, etc), and the labor left in general have seen their fortunes decline.  Yang could be viable if he gets elected mayor of NYC first and successfully cleans up the current nightmare there.

The problem is that another loss to Trump would be seen as an indictment of giving too much power to the social liberals at the expense of the traditional left. Then again, 2004 was seen the same way and it ended with a lurch only to the center of monetary issues and a lurch to the left on social ones.

Who knew in Febuary 2005 that we would have a black president, a constitutional guarantee of hay marriage, and be very close to a D majority on SCOTUS (that didnt happen but still)?

At that point, even some activists were about to concede that maybe should wait another 20 years on the LGBT thing and maybe we should try to compromise on abortion beyond what Roe would currently allow.
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