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November 28, 2020, 05:32:35 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
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Author Topic: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?  (Read 3066 times)
Mister Mets
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« Reply #25 on: September 08, 2019, 12:00:50 PM »

Interesting question. This does depend a bit on who loses and why.

If Sanders or Warren loses, there might be the sense the party went too far left, and that someone who appears more moderate is needed.

If Biden loses, there might be the sense that someone younger/ more diverse is needed.

I don't think it'll be the people currently running. The second place finisher is likely to pretty damn old, if it's Warren, Sanders or Biden. I don't see much reason Harris, Booker or Klobuchar will do better the next time around.

Of the people who didn't run, Tammy Duckworth may be well positioned. She's a military veteran/ woman of color in Obama's old Senate seat.

The last few years haven't featured that many elections of obvious star Democrats to statewide office. Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum would be top contenders had they won, but they didn't win their races. Gretchen Whitmer looks the best on paper. Krysten Sinema may have a following, and has demonstrated tremendous political skill, although what worked in Arizona might not fit the US.

Some of the 2020 Senate races might also feature new contenders. Hickenlooper probably wouldn't get more buzz as a Senator than he did as a Governor, but Joe Kennedy III would be a star on day one. I could see Sara Gideon getting support.

This is a new environment where members of Congress could plausibly run. AOC would be a progressive favorite, although she likely has a ceiling (it might also be in her interest to challenge Gilibrand in the primary.) Younger African-American members of Congressional leadership Cedric Richmond and Hakeem Jeffries might have openings.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2019, 12:55:41 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2019, 01:05:36 PM by Anarcho-Statism »

My hunch right now is that Warren and Buttigieg barely lose 2020. Gretchen Whitmer positions herself ideologically somewhere between Biden and Warren and picks Cedric Richmond as her running mate. They win 2024 by a decent margin and 2028 by a bigger margin because of division in the GOP.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2019, 02:16:42 PM »

Gretchen Whitmer.

I think there is a great chance she will become president regardless of 2020.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2019, 02:19:13 PM »

What are the chances that either that the next Democratic president is either 1) some famous person not really into politics yet, 2) some low-level party official or local government person, or 3) is just some lawyer, banker, scientist, or bureaucrat somewhere?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2019, 07:08:43 PM »

Interesting question. This does depend a bit on who loses and why.

If Sanders or Warren loses, there might be the sense the party went too far left, and that someone who appears more moderate is needed.

If Biden loses, there might be the sense that someone younger/ more diverse is needed.

I don't think it'll be the people currently running. The second place finisher is likely to pretty damn old, if it's Warren, Sanders or Biden. I don't see much reason Harris, Booker or Klobuchar will do better the next time around.

Of the people who didn't run, Tammy Duckworth may be well positioned. She's a military veteran/ woman of color in Obama's old Senate seat.

The last few years haven't featured that many elections of obvious star Democrats to statewide office. Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum would be top contenders had they won, but they didn't win their races. Gretchen Whitmer looks the best on paper. Krysten Sinema may have a following, and has demonstrated tremendous political skill, although what worked in Arizona might not fit the US.

Some of the 2020 Senate races might also feature new contenders. Hickenlooper probably wouldn't get more buzz as a Senator than he did as a Governor, but Joe Kennedy III would be a star on day one. I could see Sara Gideon getting support.

This is a new environment where members of Congress could plausibly run. AOC would be a progressive favorite, although she likely has a ceiling (it might also be in her interest to challenge Gilibrand in the primary.) Younger African-American members of Congressional leadership Cedric Richmond and Hakeem Jeffries might have openings.

I think the most likely answer is that Dems are going to crush it in the Sunbelt states in 2022 if Trump is reelected and the nominee will probably be someone elected statewide in AZ/NC/GA/TX/maybe FL in 2020/22.  I really like Mark Kelly's chances if he breaks through in AZ.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #30 on: September 11, 2019, 10:12:53 PM »

Interesting question. This does depend a bit on who loses and why.

If Sanders or Warren loses, there might be the sense the party went too far left, and that someone who appears more moderate is needed.

If Biden loses, there might be the sense that someone younger/ more diverse is needed.

I don't think it'll be the people currently running. The second place finisher is likely to pretty damn old, if it's Warren, Sanders or Biden. I don't see much reason Harris, Booker or Klobuchar will do better the next time around.

Of the people who didn't run, Tammy Duckworth may be well positioned. She's a military veteran/ woman of color in Obama's old Senate seat.

The last few years haven't featured that many elections of obvious star Democrats to statewide office. Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum would be top contenders had they won, but they didn't win their races. Gretchen Whitmer looks the best on paper. Krysten Sinema may have a following, and has demonstrated tremendous political skill, although what worked in Arizona might not fit the US.

Some of the 2020 Senate races might also feature new contenders. Hickenlooper probably wouldn't get more buzz as a Senator than he did as a Governor, but Joe Kennedy III would be a star on day one. I could see Sara Gideon getting support.

This is a new environment where members of Congress could plausibly run. AOC would be a progressive favorite, although she likely has a ceiling (it might also be in her interest to challenge Gilibrand in the primary.) Younger African-American members of Congressional leadership Cedric Richmond and Hakeem Jeffries might have openings.

I think the most likely answer is that Dems are going to crush it in the Sunbelt states in 2022 if Trump is reelected and the nominee will probably be someone elected statewide in AZ/NC/GA/TX/maybe FL in 2020/22.  I really like Mark Kelly's chances if he breaks through in AZ.
Do you think someone elected to statewide office in 2022 could be the favorite in 2024? Is there enough time to accomplish anything before the process of running a national campaign kicks off?
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #31 on: September 11, 2019, 10:20:18 PM »

What are the chances that either that the next Democratic president is either 1) some famous person not really into politics yet, 2) some low-level party official or local government person, or 3) is just some lawyer, banker, scientist, or bureaucrat somewhere?
Interesting question.

Technically, this is likeliest to happen if the next Democratic President isn't elected until 2028 or later.

At the moment, we have a sense of who is running for statewide office in 2020, and they would be newcomers seeking office in 2024.

On the flipside, sixteen years ago Obama was a state senator a few months into a primary where he was the underdog to the state comptroller and a multimillionaire securities trader whose domestic violence allegations hadn't come out yet.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #32 on: September 16, 2019, 07:06:58 PM »

The more I think about it, the more Joseph Kennedy III makes sense.

If Warren, Biden or Sanders lose, a takeaway will be that Democrats should nominate someone younger.

He'll probably be in the Senate in the state next to New Hampshire that has produced multiple nominees.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #33 on: September 28, 2019, 06:10:19 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2019, 06:15:00 PM by Chris B »

I'm going against the grain here, but I think it'll be someone ideologically similar to Warren and Sanders even if one of those two wind up the nominee this time around and goes on to lose to Trump. I mean being seen as too far to the right on immigration was seen as one of the reason why Romney lost in '12 but that still didn't prevent Trump from winning the GOP nomination four years later. I'm skeptical that today's Democratic base would attribute being too liberal as the reason for a Warren or Sanders defeat so I'm personally not expecting a renewed love for more moderate candidates. And especially if Biden is nominated and loses, I think that fervor would be stoked even more.

That said, I could see Booker, Harris, and Buttigieg all giving it another try out of the candidates running this time. Maybe Warren as well if she loses to Biden in the primary, but as has been pointed out she'll be 75 by then.

Joe Kennedy III strikes me as real possibility assuming he defeats Markey in that primary.

None of the current Democratic governors strike me as really presidential material with the possible exceptions of Newsom and Whitmer.

This is part wishful thinking and part prognostication, but I could maybe see Sherrod Brown finally giving it a go. The fact that his Senate seat will be up that year could maybe circumvent the problem of DeWine picking his replacement, assuming a Dem isn't elected governor of Ohio in 2022.

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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #34 on: September 30, 2019, 11:35:29 PM »

Gretchen Whitmer
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2019, 09:57:42 PM »

Showdown between AOC and either Harris/Newsom
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Beef
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« Reply #36 on: October 02, 2019, 08:03:31 AM »

It won't matter. 2024 will be a change year, and unless a whole lot goes perfectly for the GOP, the Democrats will win the White House.
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« Reply #37 on: October 02, 2019, 11:15:00 AM »

Roy Cooper
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Beef
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« Reply #38 on: October 04, 2019, 12:58:58 PM »

Possibly someone no one here has heard of unless they are from the same state.
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Tucker/DeSantis 2024
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« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2019, 06:23:03 PM »

Most likely Michelle Obama if she decides to run
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Laki
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2019, 10:56:54 AM »

Brown, Booker, Harris, Yang, Buttigieg will all run again, with some additions like Newsom, Whitmer, Kennedy III, Sinema, AOC or Pressley, and some others. Maybe Howie Hawkins as well.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #41 on: February 29, 2020, 11:41:07 PM »

Nice!
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2020, 05:26:02 AM »

We have Gavin Newsom, but we need to solve the problem with too many poor people now, Rs for Prez gives tax cuts for the wealthy
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #43 on: March 01, 2020, 02:59:06 PM »

If Bernie loses, then Harris or Buttigieg.

If Biden loses, then AOC.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #44 on: May 10, 2020, 08:04:50 PM »

Cuomo
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #45 on: May 10, 2020, 08:46:40 PM »


How come?
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Xing
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« Reply #46 on: May 11, 2020, 01:51:33 AM »

At this point, it would probably depend on what the prevailing narrative is about why Democrats lost. It would almost certainly be a very ugly primary, with the current divide in the Democratic Party getting more severe and reaching a boiling point.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #47 on: May 11, 2020, 06:48:53 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2020, 07:14:12 AM by 10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill.. »

At this point, it would probably depend on what the prevailing narrative is about why Democrats lost. It would almost certainly be a very ugly primary, with the current divide in the Democratic Party getting more severe and reaching a boiling point.

The three reasons why I see a possible loss in is 2020 is that-

1) Biden wasn't liberal enough and was a very weak candidate. He was too conservative, too old, and had an awkward style that made people uncomfortable the way even more aggressive styles didn't.(Especially if Democrats keeps the house) Depending on how the economy is in 2024, we should probably go with Buttigieg if the economy is "normal" again, or AOC if it is struggling.
 
2) The Democratic Brand is toxic. A lot of people were saying this out of 2004.  (Especially if Democrats lose the house)   That's how a lot of moderates and conservatives got into office. We will be back to Howard Dean saying we need to win voters of people who have confederate flags on their pick up trucks. I would say to double down and wait for people to listen but after this year, I don't know when that would ever be. We could always try someone like Gabbard in 2024. She resonates a lot more with the base than Biden would and is pretty Trumpish (many I don't like) but she is strong on domestic policy. She could be a "Bill Clinton" like character. That is, someone the national democrats would never trust until it was apparent they weren't trusted by the electorate. (A Trumpy narrative) Someone who could run on a "liberalish" platform that would be seen as too liberal and too moderate at the same time by the base but also someone who could wedge enough votes back. It wouldn't necessarily have to be Gabbard and might even be someone much stranger or someone not in politics right now.

It would just have to be someone who

1) Under the age of 50, preferably under the age of 45
2) Someone who is either not a white straight male or an "outsider"
3) Someone who is going to push for substantial Medicare expansion (MMA, Medicare at 50, or an affordable buy in for Medicare or Medicaid)
4) Someone who will aggressively protect or restore the judiciary and if it's already too late, someone who will find a way to "chip away" at the new power of states in question.
5) Most importantly, someone who is still willing to fight the Democratic base on issues that matter to poor and near-poor voters of all backgrounds whether its trade,  or immigration.


3) All the corruption of Trump administration can and does "trickle down" when "they" need it to. The economy quickly recovered making Trump look like this great president on election day. Who knows how to get out of this. Basically, we've reached a point where democracy doesn't function because the banks and large estates are so powerful that they can "shut down" or "open" the economy the bribe, reward, and punish voters.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #48 on: May 11, 2020, 09:31:59 AM »

At this point, it would probably depend on what the prevailing narrative is about why Democrats lost. It would almost certainly be a very ugly primary, with the current divide in the Democratic Party getting more severe and reaching a boiling point.
Yeah, it'll be a sh**tshow.  AOC will be polling high even if she ultimately doesn't run.  That's the sort of desperation we'll see.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #49 on: May 11, 2020, 02:21:16 PM »

At this point, it would probably depend on what the prevailing narrative is about why Democrats lost. It would almost certainly be a very ugly primary, with the current divide in the Democratic Party getting more severe and reaching a boiling point.
Yeah, it'll be a sh**tshow.  AOC will be polling high even if she ultimately doesn't run.  That's the sort of desperation we'll see.

What do you think the narrative would be?
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