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March 07, 2021, 06:23:52 PM

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Similarities between SSM referenda and 2016/2020 elections compared with 2012 and earlier elections
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Author Topic: Similarities between SSM referenda and 2016/2020 elections compared with 2012 and earlier elections  (Read 459 times)
nclib
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« on: May 08, 2020, 10:46:19 PM »
« edited: May 09, 2020, 06:49:32 PM by nclib »

This thread inspired my post.

Even though gay marriage is now a dead issue, the county maps/results from the 2000s and early 2010s resemble the 2016 (and probably 2020) presidential election. Even in cases in states in the 2000s that were overwhelmingly anti-gay marriage, there was still a pattern of the highest performance for SSM, those counties are the most Democratic now.

That pattern resembles the 2016 (and likely) 2020 elections far greater than they resemble the 2012, 2008, 2004 or previous elections. The most common exceptions are predominantly black counties particularly the South.

State by state:

first the non-South:

Alaska: don't have access to any data
Arizona: first referendum identical except Maricopa (which may flip in 2020), second referendum had only Pima opposed
California:  NorCal correlated; less for SoCal
Colorado: 13 of the 22 of HRC's counties were pro-gay in 2006 and none the other direction
Hawaii: misleading data
Idaho: identical
Kansas: identical except for Wyandotte
Kentucky: the two best pro-gay counties - Jefferson and Fayette - were the only ones to vote for HRC
Maine: identical to most recent referendum
Maryland: identical except Frederick, Prince George's, and Charles
Michigan: some overlap
Minnesota: Same three counties most pro-gay and HRC; some differences particularly in the NE and the SE
Missouri: top 4 pro-gay counties were the only HRC counties
Montana: somewhat different
Nebraska: Douglas and Lincoln were the two best pro-gay counties and were the only 2 to vote for HRC
Nevada: some overlap
North Dakota: some overlap: Cass and Sioux were among the most pro-gay and HRC counties
Ohio: some overlap
Oklahoma: sweep for both Trump and anti-SSM. Cleveland County was the most pro-gay county and voted to the right of the state in 2004 presidential; was HRC's 3rd best county in OK.
Oregon: significant overlap
South Dakota: not a huge pattern
Utah: identical except for Grand and SLC; 3 most pro-gay counties were 3 most HRC counties
Washington: identical except Pierce and Clark
Wisconsin: some overlap

and then the South where there's  less of a correlation:

Alabama: very different due to the Black Belt
Arkansas: quite different, though NW Arkansas was less anti-gay than the state and used to be clearly to the right of the state, but much less now.
Florida: some overlap
Georgia: quite different due to the Black counties
Louisiana: quite different due to the Black counties
Mississippi: very different due to the Black counties
North Carolina: 10 of the 11 most pro-gay counties swung towards HRC; only 3 of the other 89 counties swung towards HRC
South Carolina: quite different due to the Black counties
Tennessee: Davidson was most pro-gay and 1 of 3 counties carried by HRC. Otherwise map/trend is somewhat different
Texas: not much overlap
Virginia: some overlap
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2020, 12:37:48 AM »

Wisconsin's 2006 was hilarious in that it was kept under 60% just because of Dane county voting by its presidential level margins against it.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2020, 12:39:07 AM »

This thread inspired my post.

Even though gay marriage is now a dead issue, the county maps/results from the 2000s and early 2010s resemble the 2016 (and probably 2020) presidential election. Even in cases in states in the 2000s that were overwhelmingly anti-gay marriage, there was still a pattern of the highest performance for SSM, those counties are the most Democratic now.

That pattern resembles the 2016 (and likely) 2020 elections far greater than they resemble the 2012, 2008, 2004 or previous elections. The most common exceptions are predominantly black counties particularly the South.

State by state:

first the non-South:

Alaska: don't have access to any data
Arizona: first referendum identical except Maricopa (which may flip in 2020), second referendum had only Pima opposed
California:  NorCal correlated; less for SoCal
Colorado: 13 of the 22 of HRC's counties were pro-gay in 2006 and none the other direction
Hawaii: misleading data
Idaho: identical
Kansas: identical except for Wyandotte
Kentucky: missing data but IIRC the two best pro-gay counties - Jefferson and Fayette - were the only ones to vote for HRC
Maine: identical to most recent referendum
Maryland: identical except Frederick, Prince George's, and Charles
Michigan: some overlap
Minnesota: Same three counties most pro-gay and HRC; some differences particularly in the NE and the SE
Missouri: top 4 pro-gay counties were the only HRC counties
Montana: somewhat different
Nebraska: Douglas and Lincoln were the two best pro-gay counties and were the only 2 to vote for HRC
Nevada: some overlap
North Dakota: some overlap: Cass and Sioux were among the most pro-gay and HRC counties
Ohio: some overlap
Oklahoma: sweep for both Trump and anti-SSM. Cleveland County was the most pro-gay county and voted to the right of the state in 2004 presidential; was HRC's 3rd best county in OK.
Oregon: significant overlap
South Dakota: not a huge pattern
Utah: identical except for Grand and SLC; 3 most pro-gay counties were 3 most HRC counties
Washington: identical except Pierce and Clark
Wisconsin: some overlap

and then the South where there's  less of a correlation:

Alabama: very different due to the Black Belt
Arkansas: quite different, though NW Arkansas was less anti-gay than the state and used to be clearly to the right of the state, but much less now.
Florida: some overlap
Georgia: quite different due to the Black counties
Louisiana: quite different due to the Black counties
Mississippi: very different due to the Black counties
North Carolina: 10 of the 11 most pro-gay counties swung towards HRC; only 3 of the other 89 counties swung towards HRC
South Carolina: quite different due to the Black counties
Tennessee: Davidson was most pro-gay and 1 of 3 counties carried by HRC. Otherwise map/trend is somewhat different
Texas: not much overlap
Virginia: some overlap


Orange county was only like 14 points right of the state in 2008 which was very interesting.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2020, 11:02:55 AM »

I wonder why this is.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2020, 11:48:25 AM »


In 2016, the electorate further polarized along socially liberal/socon lines.  Romney/Clinton voters are often exactly the type of Republicans who don’t have a problem with gay marriage (suburban, well-educated, etc.)  Lifelong, rural Democrats who voted for Trump—on the other hand—tend to not be very socially progressive.
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nclib
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2020, 06:56:42 PM »

Kerry did well in many very anti-gay counties. The most anti-gay county in Kentucky - Magoffin - went for Kerry. The most anti-gay county in Virginia - Buchanan - also went for Kerry. Both have since moved far to the right.

I'm trying to figure out South Dakota. Apparently their anti-gay amendment was extremely restrictive and plenty of Bush-McCain-Romney- Trump voters voted against it. But it also doesn't resemble the 2016 map or PVI. TDAS, what's your take on this?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2020, 05:50:05 AM »

Kerry did well in many very anti-gay counties. The most anti-gay county in Kentucky - Magoffin - went for Kerry. The most anti-gay county in Virginia - Buchanan - also went for Kerry. Both have since moved far to the right.

I'm trying to figure out South Dakota. Apparently their anti-gay amendment was extremely restrictive and plenty of Bush-McCain-Romney- Trump voters voted against it. But it also doesn't resemble the 2016 map or PVI. TDAS, what's your take on this?

Well, it was a particularly restrictive amendment.  Still surprising that it was so close.  There was some correlation between votes against it and current Democratic support.  The counties it failed most in were Shannon (now Oglala Lakota) and Clay (home of USD in Vermillion). 

One explanation for overlap would be that in typically more more-conservative Western part of South Dakota, where the amendment had somewhat less support, they are also more libertarian than East of the Missouri (the failed abortion ban on the ballot that same year did worse in the West too).

Also, while the reservations mostly voted against the amendment, it was not overwhelming compared to how they typically vote Democratic.  Opposition to gay marriage among Native American Democrats is not uncommon.  After all, they are minorities.
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Sen. Mark Meadows
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2020, 03:13:59 PM »


In 2016, the electorate further polarized along socially liberal/socon lines.  Romney/Clinton voters are often exactly the type of Republicans who don’t have a problem with gay marriage (suburban, well-educated, etc.)  Lifelong, rural Democrats who voted for Trump—on the other hand—tend to not be very socially progressive.



Perfect example.
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