ManchOUT for WV GOV
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Author Topic: ManchOUT for WV GOV  (Read 4017 times)
Comrade Funk
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« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2019, 09:18:09 AM »

So who exactly will run for the governorship? Not like Justice is an unbeatable titan or anything.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #26 on: September 03, 2019, 09:21:44 AM »

So who exactly will run for the governorship? Not like Justice is an unbeatable titan or anything.

Blakenship is coming...
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2019, 09:28:22 AM »

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin will not run for governor of West Virginia in 2020, a spokesman confirmed.

The senator, who served as governor of West Virginia from 2005 to 2010, stoked speculation in recent months about a possible run against Republican Gov. Jim Justice, saying in April that being governor of West Virginia is the “best job in the world.”


The decision is likely to be a relief to Senate Democrats, who would struggle to hold on to the seat in the future.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #28 on: September 03, 2019, 09:35:50 AM »



Is this person a reputable source? (They only have 22 followers...)

Apparently not.
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BRTD
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« Reply #29 on: September 03, 2019, 09:52:38 AM »

Who's ready for Justice vs Blankenship next year?
Blankenship isn't going to be the nominee. Believe it or not even the more conservative West Virginia Democrats aren't too fond of a guy who's most well known for ignoring safety standards resulting in the deaths of 29 miners.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #30 on: September 03, 2019, 09:56:36 AM »

Who's ready for Justice vs Blankenship next year?
Blankenship isn't going to be the nominee. Believe it or not even the more conservative West Virginia Democrats aren't too fond of a guy who's most well known for ignoring safety standards resulting in the deaths of 29 miners.

Justice (R) v. Ojeda (D) v. Blankenship (C)

But if he runs in the Dem primary, he can't run in the GE due to sore loser law in WV.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #31 on: September 03, 2019, 10:06:42 AM »

Well if Manchin isn't running I hope Ojeda or Blankenship win the D primary for the most popcorn.

Blankenship is well Blankenship and Ojeda would probably tackle Justice for the #populism.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #32 on: September 03, 2019, 10:09:14 AM »

Well if Manchin isn't running I hope Ojeda or Blankenship win the D primary for the most popcorn.

Blankenship is well Blankenship and Ojeda would probably tackle Justice for the #populism.

Ojeda would stomp Blankenship in the primary, but would lose in the general Sad
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20RP12
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« Reply #33 on: September 03, 2019, 10:11:10 AM »

I can't believe I'm actually happy to see Manchin stay in the Senate.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #34 on: September 03, 2019, 10:13:36 AM »

Yes!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: September 03, 2019, 10:23:21 AM »

Dems chances of taking back Senate are improved with Grissom, Franken and Gideon, he would be better off padding the lead, by staying in the Senate
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Skye
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« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2019, 10:34:55 AM »

Yes, the Democrats can now run Blankenship instead.
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Donerail
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« Reply #37 on: September 03, 2019, 10:46:18 AM »

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #38 on: September 03, 2019, 11:09:44 AM »

Blankenship couldn't even get 20% in the Republican Primary. There's no way he's going to even crack double digits in a Dem primary, especially with the electorate being made up mostly of Demosaurs and UMWA stalwarts.
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BRTD
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« Reply #39 on: September 03, 2019, 11:13:15 AM »

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #40 on: September 03, 2019, 11:17:59 AM »

Manchin is such an attention whore.

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
From what I've heard from the folks up there, Blakenship is a lot more complicated than I think any of us understand. The man is personally loathed, but the movement he's vocalizing is stronger in WV than perhaps any other state.
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BRTD
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« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2019, 11:51:53 AM »

Manchin is such an attention whore.

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
From what I've heard from the folks up there, Blakenship is a lot more complicated than I think any of us understand. The man is personally loathed, but the movement he's vocalizing is stronger in WV than perhaps any other state.
Yes he's such a titan with such a powerful movement backing him he got a whole whopping ~20% in a GOP primary.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #42 on: September 03, 2019, 12:14:00 PM »

Manchin is such an attention whore.

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
From what I've heard from the folks up there, Blakenship is a lot more complicated than I think any of us understand. The man is personally loathed, but the movement he's vocalizing is stronger in WV than perhaps any other state.

What movement is he vocalizing?  A bowel movement?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2019, 12:15:10 PM »

Manchin is such an attention whore.

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
From what I've heard from the folks up there, Blakenship is a lot more complicated than I think any of us understand. The man is personally loathed, but the movement he's vocalizing is stronger in WV than perhaps any other state.
Yes he's such a titan with such a powerful movement backing him he got a whole whopping ~20% in a GOP primary.

WV is weird in that the types of voters you need to win the state are all stuck in the Dem primary, even as they vote GOP in the general. The GOP primary is way out of step with the WWC base, the panhandle is still overrepresented in the voteshare. Justice's path is arguably the one that has the best chance of success for state govt contests if you are a populist Republican, like Blakenship.
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BRTD
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« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2019, 12:23:29 PM »

Manchin is such an attention whore.

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
From what I've heard from the folks up there, Blakenship is a lot more complicated than I think any of us understand. The man is personally loathed, but the movement he's vocalizing is stronger in WV than perhaps any other state.
Yes he's such a titan with such a powerful movement backing him he got a whole whopping ~20% in a GOP primary.

WV is weird in that the types of voters you need to win the state are all stuck in the Dem primary, even as they vote GOP in the general. The GOP primary is way out of step with the WWC base, the panhandle is still overrepresented in the voteshare. Justice's path is arguably the one that has the best chance of success for state govt contests if you are a populist Republican, like Blakenship.
Justice's "path" was being the richest guy in the state and flooding the primary with his money.

Now as for your first sentence: Why is a guy who is responsible for the deaths of 29 coal miners going to win over conservative Democrats disproportionately located in coal mining communities in the Democratic primary?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2019, 12:45:02 PM »



Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.


No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV  and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs,  Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.


If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.



You seriously think that the "suburban" counties in the far northeastern part of the state are going to grow that much over the next few decades? I mean, I wouldn't discount it, but I doubt they would have much influence on the state's politics. Demographic trends there overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, and the Democrats' advocacy for climate change policies, to say nothing of their stances on gun control, gay rights, abortion, etc. is definitely not doing them any favors in West Virginia. I will admit that 70 years might be too long, but it's not entirely out of the equation either. I'll remind you that Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator in 86 years-even though that streak could end in 2020 if Kobach becomes the Republican nominee there.

Gotta agree with this post in general. I think that the three far eastern Panhandle counties (Jefferson (this one especially), Berkeley, and Morgan) will grow in size and trend Democratic, but I don’t think that they would be able to swing the state to being anything less than Likely R.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2019, 01:11:15 PM »

Manchin is such an attention whore.

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
From what I've heard from the folks up there, Blakenship is a lot more complicated than I think any of us understand. The man is personally loathed, but the movement he's vocalizing is stronger in WV than perhaps any other state.
Yes he's such a titan with such a powerful movement backing him he got a whole whopping ~20% in a GOP primary.

WV is weird in that the types of voters you need to win the state are all stuck in the Dem primary, even as they vote GOP in the general. The GOP primary is way out of step with the WWC base, the panhandle is still overrepresented in the voteshare. Justice's path is arguably the one that has the best chance of success for state govt contests if you are a populist Republican, like Blakenship.
Justice's "path" was being the richest guy in the state and flooding the primary with his money.

Now as for your first sentence: Why is a guy who is responsible for the deaths of 29 coal miners going to win over conservative Democrats disproportionately located in coal mining communities in the Democratic primary?

Emotions are weird. We all know on this site that people on all sides of the spectrum will vote  against their interests because of emotions or short term fluctuations. Blakenship oozes that emotional appeal, for some fing reason.
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BRTD
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« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2019, 01:34:40 PM »

Manchin is such an attention whore.

Possible Democrat nominees
  • Ojeda
  • Tennant
  • Tomblin
  • Gainer
  • Goodwin (either)
  • Kessler
  • Perdue
  • Any number of other former statewide electeds
  • Any number of current or former state legislators

Any one of these people would comfortably win a primary against Blankenship without lifting a finger

Some random pension collecting former union member coal miner in Logan County would beat Blankenship.
From what I've heard from the folks up there, Blakenship is a lot more complicated than I think any of us understand. The man is personally loathed, but the movement he's vocalizing is stronger in WV than perhaps any other state.
Yes he's such a titan with such a powerful movement backing him he got a whole whopping ~20% in a GOP primary.

WV is weird in that the types of voters you need to win the state are all stuck in the Dem primary, even as they vote GOP in the general. The GOP primary is way out of step with the WWC base, the panhandle is still overrepresented in the voteshare. Justice's path is arguably the one that has the best chance of success for state govt contests if you are a populist Republican, like Blakenship.
Justice's "path" was being the richest guy in the state and flooding the primary with his money.

Now as for your first sentence: Why is a guy who is responsible for the deaths of 29 coal miners going to win over conservative Democrats disproportionately located in coal mining communities in the Democratic primary?

Emotions are weird. We all know on this site that people on all sides of the spectrum will vote  against their interests because of emotions or short term fluctuations. Blakenship oozes that emotional appeal, for some fing reason.

Yes the guy just screams unstoppable charismatic appeal.


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President Johnson
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« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2019, 01:37:46 PM »

I'm glad he isn't running. I don't like him that much as a senator, but Democrats need to keep the seat. I guess he'll still vote for most bills and candidates a Democratic president puts forward in 2021.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2019, 02:43:37 PM »



Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.


No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV  and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs,  Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.


If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.



You seriously think that the "suburban" counties in the far northeastern part of the state are going to grow that much over the next few decades? I mean, I wouldn't discount it, but I doubt they would have much influence on the state's politics. Demographic trends there overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, and the Democrats' advocacy for climate change policies, to say nothing of their stances on gun control, gay rights, abortion, etc. is definitely not doing them any favors in West Virginia. I will admit that 70 years might be too long, but it's not entirely out of the equation either. I'll remind you that Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator in 86 years-even though that streak could end in 2020 if Kobach becomes the Republican nominee there.

Gotta agree with this post in general. I think that the three far eastern Panhandle counties (Jefferson (this one especially), Berkeley, and Morgan) will grow in size and trend Democratic, but I don’t think that they would be able to swing the state to being anything less than Likely R.

Given the way West Virginia is headed, those three counties (and Monongalia) might enable Democrats to at least have a foothold in the state again, and to not be locked out of winning a single county like Obama and Clinton were in 2012 and 2016 respectively. And even then, it is not guaranteed. I expect Trump to sweep the state's counties again in 2020. One other state where demographic trends might give Democrats a foothold is Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma County will begin voting Democratic at the presidential level by the late 2020s to early 2030s, and that would end their drought there; Democrats have not won a single county in the state, at the presidential level, since 2000! Republicans have swept the state's counties in four consecutive elections.
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