Mapping American Four-Quadrant Political Ideology

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

My first goal was to replicate Drutman's methodology and use MRP to project this distribution spatially (his methodology does have some issues, I discovered, but I ignored them to replicate his work). I then matched up the survey response categories with equivalent questions from the 2013-17 ACS PUMS sample, added a few of my own variables, and projected on to Public Use Microdata Areas, a geographic unit which, like congressional districts, tries to maintain rough population equality. This was the only substate geography available for the PUMS data, but I think it works just fine.

Nice job! I'd like to hear more about these variables and how they correspond to policy preferences/ideology. It looks like your Communitarian enclaves within urbanized California correspond to areas with an Asian plurality/majority- specifically East San Jose, the San Gabriel Valley, NW Orange County, and possibly the SE corner of San Francisco.

The biggest variable I included but which the ACS doesn't have is a measure of the distribution of churches of various denominations at the PUMA/zipcode level. This was especially important to getting Mormon areas to reasonable levels.

Yes, Asians see the highest proportion of communitarians of any racial group (except possibly Middle Easterners, who you might classify as Asians regardless). Asians also have the highest share of libertarians of any race and few true conservatives. I suspect there's a large education/income or national-of-origin divide within the Asian population, although I don't have data on the latter.

Middle Easterners are considered White in the US census, and I believe most Muslim Americans are Asian or black. I suspect most ideological differences among Asian ancestry/national origin groups can be explained by differences in household income, educational attainment, religious affiliation, and possibly work industry. This is the most comprehensive and recent report I can find on the Asian electorate: http://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/spring16aavs-crosstabs.pdf

The methodology doesn't work perfectly everywhere, but we do see some interesting patterns: the large divide among rural areas between the conservative west and communitarian east, the eastern conservative suburbs and exurbs, and, of course, liberal cities and college towns.

Here, libertarianism shows up, predominately in suburbs (especially DC, Chicago, the PNW) and in urban cores across the Sunbelt and West. Liberalism is far more constrained to the Acela Corridor, majority black urban PUMAs, and wealthy parts of the West. Communitarianism dominates in the Rust Belt, rural Northeast, and across the lowland rural South (both black and white areas), but conservativism reigns in ancestrally Republican parts of upland Appalachia, southern suburbs, retirement locales in Florida, and beyond the 100th Meridian.

The contrast between Left-Liberal and Libertarian strongholds in the Western US is pretty striking. You'd think areas with higher concentrations of wealthier, highly educated whites would be more receptive to Libertarianism than less well off, less educated, and/or less white urban areas.

Here's who libertarians are in the sample: they're the youngest group, skew wealthy, skew educated, skew urban, skew male, skew less religious, skew single. They work in information, finance, and science/tech. Here's the thing though: most of those are also true for the liberal quadrant, and the liberal quadrant is far larger and far more polarized than the libertarian quadrant (libertarians have remarkably similar demographics to liberals, save for being less black and far more male). That means that the places where libertarianism stands out based on the above categories, liberalism will likely stand out even more. Thus, the areas which area as libertarian in the z-score map are those which are both more libertarian than average and which are above the libertarian average more than they are liberal above average.

I still find it interesting how wealthy/gentrified areas on the West Coast have higher liberal Z-scores than libertarian Z-scores. I wonder what makes places like Capitol Hill-Rainier Beach (Seattle), Bellevue (Seattle), West Portland, and West(ish) Fresno have a relatively low proportion of Libertarians compared to the rest of their respective metro areas.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Can you post the map based on the values issues/size of government version, if that's not a ton of work?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

Was this in dispute?

The problem is that subsequent generations in suburbs aren't "conservatives", or aren't conservative enough to maintain political power at the state or county level.

Lets take a hypothetical state with a break down of 45% suburbs, 35% urban and 20% rural.

Lets say those suburbs vote Democratic 52%, the rurals go 70% Republican and Democrats win 75% of the urban.

Even at those levels, the Republican vote in said state would be overwhelmingly suburban. 45*48 = 21.6%  20*70 = 14%.

This is a point that RinoTom makes a lot, that by necessity Republicans have to get most of their votes in the suburbs, but the problem is they either can no longer command majorities in those suburbs or their majorities are too weak to offset the urban vote even when combined with the rural population.

This is caused by three main factors:
1. Generational Displacement
2. New demographics moving in who feel left out by dominant party
3. Party alienation.

Typically a combination of one and/or two produce a feedback loop with the national party that leads to number three.

[Indy Texas]

Really hammers home just how ludicrously overrepresented libertarianism (or "fiscal conservatism-social liberalism") is in media and politics and, conversely, how underrepresented "communitarianism" is.

[SInNYC]

Very interesting pictures.
If its not too much work, would it be possible to post just the yellow (other voters) in the original scatter plot?

Its not totally surprising that communitarians aren't represented. As said above, they are rural, less educated, and poor. Most of our national politicians, even the ones who relish in sounding stupid, are educated - I seem to recall that something like 25/100 senators went to Ivy/Stanford/Georgetown. They are also rich, and no longer rural though some  may have started out in rural areas.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

interesting that Paul did better than Santorum among the communitarian quadrant.


I generally think of the rural Upper Midwest, esp the Driftless Area, as being one of the most traditionally communitarian regions.   Here, it isn't so much.  Is this a result of the definition & questions used, or if the region no longer as communitarian in character as it once was?

[RI]

Can you post the map based on the values issues/size of government version, if that's not a ton of work?

I'll work on it when I get the chance.

interesting that Paul did better than Santorum among the communitarian quadrant.


I generally think of the rural Upper Midwest, esp the Driftless Area, as being one of the most traditionally communitarian regions.   Here, it isn't so much.  Is this a result of the definition & questions used, or if the region no longer as communitarian in character as it once was?

I suspect that the Driftless Area, like VT, doesn't show up because its defining features which make it so anomalous aren't being captured by the model. Perhaps I can include some sort of ancestry (Scandinavian culture may play a factor in the Upper Midwest), land use, topography, or agricultural data (small vs. large farms, pasture vs. cropland, crop type) in a future iteration. That's a lot of work, though.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Can you post the map based on the values issues/size of government version, if that's not a ton of work?

I'll work on it when I get the chance.

interesting that Paul did better than Santorum among the communitarian quadrant.


I generally think of the rural Upper Midwest, esp the Driftless Area, as being one of the most traditionally communitarian regions.   Here, it isn't so much.  Is this a result of the definition & questions used, or if the region no longer as communitarian in character as it once was?

I suspect that the Driftless Area, like VT, doesn't show up because its defining features which make it so anomalous aren't being captured by the model. Perhaps I can include some sort of ancestry (Scandinavian culture may play a factor in the Upper Midwest), land use, topography, or agricultural data (small vs. large farms, pasture vs. cropland, crop type) in a future iteration. That's a lot of work, though.

And I would think you'd have to verify in some way that those things remain relevant to a communitarian politics that goes along with the other questions/variables.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

You've done fascinating work here, RI, especially in your description of (and answers you've fielded regarding) the communitarians. Two things:

1. It actually doesn't surprise me at all that Vermont shows up with a communitarian streak, especially if, as you say, communitarian outlooks on muh social issues are more particular than just falling in with conservatives on abortion and SSM. People like our own Averroes are much thicker on the ground in Vermont than someone only familiar with the state's voting patterns might expect. And the state swung about as hard towards Trump as the Rust Belt did, even though it was swinging from a beyond-titanium-D baseline.
2. Does the communitarian bastion in central South Dakota have to do with the various reservations there? I notice that eastern Oklahoma and the Navajo Nation are also pretty deep green.

[RI]

Awesome work. Would it be possible to produce a chart showing what % of each state and DC are Liberal, Conservative, Communitarian, Libertarian?

Based on the first model:

State	Liberal	Conservative	Communitarian	Libertarian
Alabama	29.9	29.8	37.9	2.4
Alaska	28.7	37.9	32.2	1.2
Arizona	34.1	32.3	30.5	3.1
Arkansas	25.7	32.8	39.5	1.9
California	38.7	27.7	29.9	3.8
Colorado	35.4	33.6	27.6	3.4
Connecticut	39.5	24.9	33.5	2.1
Delaware	33.3	29.9	33.0	3.7
DC	52.9	18.6	21.7	6.8
Florida	32.9	30.4	33.2	3.5
Georgia	34.8	28.0	33.8	3.4
Hawaii	35.1	27.6	35.1	2.1
Idaho	27.1	37.1	34.1	1.7
Illinois	37.7	23.1	36.0	3.3
Indiana	31.3	25.7	40.9	2.1
Iowa	28.2	32.4	37.8	1.6
Kansas	31.2	29.3	37.8	1.7
Kentucky	26.1	34.2	37.4	2.2
Louisiana	31.5	28.3	37.3	2.8
Maine	29.9	30.1	39.4	0.6
Maryland	39.4	28.6	27.7	4.3
Massachusetts	40.3	24.3	33.0	2.3
Michigan	35.5	24.1	38.0	2.3
Minnesota	31.1	30.9	35.3	2.6
Mississippi	30.6	28.7	38.7	2.0
Missouri	32.3	25.4	40.1	2.2
Montana	24.8	39.7	35.0	0.5
Nebraska	29.0	32.4	36.6	2.0
Nevada	35.1	30.3	32.0	2.6
New Hampshire	33.1	29.8	36.3	0.8
New Jersey	41.3	22.6	33.7	2.4
New Mexico	31.9	33.8	32.6	1.7
New York	42.9	20.8	33.5	2.7
North Carolina	31.6	31.0	34.5	2.9
North Dakota	21.6	39.2	38.0	1.2
Ohio	33.8	24.2	39.5	2.5
Oklahoma	27.3	33.1	37.3	2.3
Oregon	32.3	33.4	31.7	2.6
Pennsylvania	34.7	26.1	37.7	1.4
Rhode Island	37.7	24.2	35.9	2.1
South Carolina	30.9	30.8	35.7	2.6
South Dakota	24.9	35.2	38.9	1.0
Tennessee	29.7	31.2	36.6	2.5
Texas	33.3	31.1	31.8	3.8
Utah	31.8	35.3	29.6	3.3
Vermont	30.7	31.2	37.6	0.5
Virginia	34.5	31.4	30.6	3.5
Washington	34.0	32.7	30.3	3.1
West Virginia	22.4	37.0	38.9	1.7
Wisconsin	30.3	29.9	37.5	2.3
Wyoming	23.8	42.0	34.1	0.2

Map:

State z-score map:

2. Does the communitarian bastion in central South Dakota have to do with the various reservations there? I notice that eastern Oklahoma and the Navajo Nation are also pretty deep green.

Yes, I'm fairly sure that's the case. You can see the reservations of NE AZ and NW NM following the same communitarian pattern. I suspect this pops out not only because of racial patterns but also the high levels of disability and those not in the labor force.

[OneJ]

I find it interesting how Communitarians made up slightly less of a percentage in the 2016 GOP primary than in 2012 considering Trump's strong appeal to them in both the primary and general election by winning many of them over.

Anyways, this is great work. Thank you for sharing with us.

[SInNYC]

Awesome work. Would it be possible to produce a chart showing what % of each state and DC are Liberal, Conservative, Communitarian, Libertarian?

Based on the first model:

State	Liberal	Conservative	Communitarian	Libertarian
Alabama	29.9	29.8	37.9	2.4
Alaska	28.7	37.9	32.2	1.2
Arizona	34.1	32.3	30.5	3.1
Arkansas	25.7	32.8	39.5	1.9
California	38.7	27.7	29.9	3.8
Colorado	35.4	33.6	27.6	3.4
Connecticut	39.5	24.9	33.5	2.1
Delaware	33.3	29.9	33.0	3.7
DC	52.9	18.6	21.7	6.8
Florida	32.9	30.4	33.2	3.5
Georgia	34.8	28.0	33.8	3.4
Hawaii	35.1	27.6	35.1	2.1
Idaho	27.1	37.1	34.1	1.7
Illinois	37.7	23.1	36.0	3.3
Indiana	31.3	25.7	40.9	2.1
Iowa	28.2	32.4	37.8	1.6
Kansas	31.2	29.3	37.8	1.7
Kentucky	26.1	34.2	37.4	2.2
Louisiana	31.5	28.3	37.3	2.8
Maine	29.9	30.1	39.4	0.6
Maryland	39.4	28.6	27.7	4.3
Massachusetts	40.3	24.3	33.0	2.3
Michigan	35.5	24.1	38.0	2.3
Minnesota	31.1	30.9	35.3	2.6
Mississippi	30.6	28.7	38.7	2.0
Missouri	32.3	25.4	40.1	2.2
Montana	24.8	39.7	35.0	0.5
Nebraska	29.0	32.4	36.6	2.0
Nevada	35.1	30.3	32.0	2.6
New Hampshire	33.1	29.8	36.3	0.8
New Jersey	41.3	22.6	33.7	2.4
New Mexico	31.9	33.8	32.6	1.7
New York	42.9	20.8	33.5	2.7
North Carolina	31.6	31.0	34.5	2.9
North Dakota	21.6	39.2	38.0	1.2
Ohio	33.8	24.2	39.5	2.5
Oklahoma	27.3	33.1	37.3	2.3
Oregon	32.3	33.4	31.7	2.6
Pennsylvania	34.7	26.1	37.7	1.4
Rhode Island	37.7	24.2	35.9	2.1
South Carolina	30.9	30.8	35.7	2.6
South Dakota	24.9	35.2	38.9	1.0
Tennessee	29.7	31.2	36.6	2.5
Texas	33.3	31.1	31.8	3.8
Utah	31.8	35.3	29.6	3.3
Vermont	30.7	31.2	37.6	0.5
Virginia	34.5	31.4	30.6	3.5
Washington	34.0	32.7	30.3	3.1
West Virginia	22.4	37.0	38.9	1.7
Wisconsin	30.3	29.9	37.5	2.3
Wyoming	23.8	42.0	34.1	0.2

Map:

State z-score map:

2. Does the communitarian bastion in central South Dakota have to do with the various reservations there? I notice that eastern Oklahoma and the Navajo Nation are also pretty deep green.

Yes, I'm fairly sure that's the case. You can see the reservations of NE AZ and NW NM following the same communitarian pattern. I suspect this pops out not only because of racial patterns but also the high levels of disability and those not in the labor force.

Its interesting how DC is the most libertarian 'state' in the nation. MD/VA also rank highly there, presumably because of DC suburbs. Meanwhile, WY is the least libertarian even though I suspect most WYers would claim to be libertarian. I've always felt that many self-professed Libertarians are just rich kids (and rich kid wannabees) out to get the government off the backs of rich kids, and these numbers support that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think LA might be a mistake in the map above unless I am reading the numbers wrong.


Louisiana   31.5   28.3   37.3   2.8
Texas   33.3   31.1   31.8   3.8

Both are the same color though.


Also that map looks very familiar, matches with the trend maps in many places.

[RI]

I think LA might be a mistake in the map above unless I am reading the numbers wrong.


Louisiana   31.5   28.3   37.3   2.8
Texas   33.3   31.1   31.8   3.8

Both are the same color though.


Also that map looks very familiar, matches with the trend maps in many places.

Sorry, yes, LA should be green. I've fixed it.

[pbrower2a]

I notice the relative scarcity of people more than 0.5 to the Right on the spectrum.



I do not know what this graph says of people on the far right on economic issues are -- extreme libertarians on economics? Neo-confederates who want a distribution of wealth characteristic of a feudal social order?

I notice a bimodal distribution of the population in a pattern that resembles women's  breasts (they are similar in height and in apparent balance, and few natural phenomena fit that pattern). Putting values on the X-axis for economic liberalism and conservatism and the Y-axis on social liberalism and conservatism, I find the peaks around (-0.6, -0.75) for the Left and (0.1, 0.6) on the Right. The most critical part of the American populace in politics for its size is the donor class that funds the political process... and it would seem very far to the Right on economic conservatism while being more ambiguous on social conservatism.  For this group political life is all about money and privilege, and it seems to care little about abortion, homosexuality, theology, and cultural expression (so long as that expression is not the 'specter of Communism').  But it is also a tiny part of the populace, and the people who believe that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as such maximizes the gain, indulgence, and power of those elites are but a tiny fraction of American life. It probably dominates in ownership of property whether real or in corporate ownership -- and bureaucratic power within giant corporations.  Think of the Koch brothers, who seem (or seemed) not to care about abortion, homosexuality, or fundamentalist theology.   

[Idaho Conservative]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

I was largely talking about the sort of ideological "movement conservatism" and the super churchy parts of the religious right.  Even if those groups aren't the majority of the suburbs (maybe with the exception of my suburb of Williamson County), they are disproportionately found in suburbs.

Another example of this that I've talked about is that (per FOX News's 2018 voter analysis), college educated white evangelicals and non-college white evangelicals vote virtually identically.  However, that covers up major differences between the two groups.  The types of super personally socially conservative things are usually found in more upper-middle class demographics (who almost have political views vaguely similar to Mormons, albeit not quite as skeptical of Trump), while more downscale evangelicals tend to have more of a sort of cultural conservatism.  This is probably more apparent in Republican primaries (i.e. Cruz/Rubio vs. Trump, in TN Lee vs. Black and Sethi vs. Hagerty).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

I was largely talking about the sort of ideological "movement conservatism" and the super churchy parts of the religious right.  Even if those groups aren't the majority of the suburbs (maybe with the exception of my suburb of Williamson County), they are disproportionately found in suburbs.

Another example of this that I've talked about is that (per FOX News's 2018 voter analysis), college educated white evangelicals and non-college white evangelicals vote virtually identically.  However, that covers up major differences between the two groups.  The types of super personally socially conservative things are usually found in more upper-middle class demographics (who almost have political views vaguely similar to Mormons, albeit not quite as skeptical of Trump), while more downscale evangelicals tend to have more of a sort of cultural conservatism.  This is probably more apparent in Republican primaries (i.e. Cruz/Rubio vs. Trump, in TN Lee vs. Black and Sethi vs. Hagerty).

Not truly related, but I'd like to ask you if you know personally anyone in the (tiny) minority of college-educated White evangelicals who vote Democratic and if so what is generally their political philosophy or ideology.

[Idaho Conservative]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

I was largely talking about the sort of ideological "movement conservatism" and the super churchy parts of the religious right.  Even if those groups aren't the majority of the suburbs (maybe with the exception of my suburb of Williamson County), they are disproportionately found in suburbs.

Another example of this that I've talked about is that (per FOX News's 2018 voter analysis), college educated white evangelicals and non-college white evangelicals vote virtually identically.  However, that covers up major differences between the two groups.  The types of super personally socially conservative things are usually found in more upper-middle class demographics (who almost have political views vaguely similar to Mormons, albeit not quite as skeptical of Trump), while more downscale evangelicals tend to have more of a sort of cultural conservatism.  This is probably more apparent in Republican primaries (i.e. Cruz/Rubio vs. Trump, in TN Lee vs. Black and Sethi vs. Hagerty).

So college evangelicals are more personally conservative, similar to LDS?  While non college might be more similar to your average american lifestyle wise but still ideologically conservative? 

[Tiger08]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

I was largely talking about the sort of ideological "movement conservatism" and the super churchy parts of the religious right.  Even if those groups aren't the majority of the suburbs (maybe with the exception of my suburb of Williamson County), they are disproportionately found in suburbs.

Another example of this that I've talked about is that (per FOX News's 2018 voter analysis), college educated white evangelicals and non-college white evangelicals vote virtually identically.  However, that covers up major differences between the two groups.  The types of super personally socially conservative things are usually found in more upper-middle class demographics (who almost have political views vaguely similar to Mormons, albeit not quite as skeptical of Trump), while more downscale evangelicals tend to have more of a sort of cultural conservatism.  This is probably more apparent in Republican primaries (i.e. Cruz/Rubio vs. Trump, in TN Lee vs. Black and Sethi vs. Hagerty).

Not truly related, but I'd like to ask you if you know personally anyone in the (tiny) minority of college-educated White evangelicals who vote Democratic and if so what is generally their political philosophy or ideology.

Not sure if Pro-Life Single Issue Voter agrees, but as someone from Greenville, SC (which has areas very similar to Williamson County, TN), here's my analysis...

I don't know any that vote consistently Democratic but I know some (mostly younger) who don't love Trump. In addition to some who are mostly conservative but can't stand Trump as a person, there are plenty of younger evangelicals who take some center-left stances for faith-based reasons and vote based on more than just the typical "evangelical" issues unlike their older, 100% culturally conservative counterparts. They think that Democrats do a better job of helping the poor, support aspects of BLM, and have an at least somewhat liberal view on immigration. Search the "And Campaign" as an example, led by Obama's faith director and a former Democratic strategist. Not all of them would vote consistently Democratic because of abortion and other issues that typically lead Evangelicals to vote Republican, but they aren't down-the-line conservatives.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

I was largely talking about the sort of ideological "movement conservatism" and the super churchy parts of the religious right.  Even if those groups aren't the majority of the suburbs (maybe with the exception of my suburb of Williamson County), they are disproportionately found in suburbs.

Another example of this that I've talked about is that (per FOX News's 2018 voter analysis), college educated white evangelicals and non-college white evangelicals vote virtually identically.  However, that covers up major differences between the two groups.  The types of super personally socially conservative things are usually found in more upper-middle class demographics (who almost have political views vaguely similar to Mormons, albeit not quite as skeptical of Trump), while more downscale evangelicals tend to have more of a sort of cultural conservatism.  This is probably more apparent in Republican primaries (i.e. Cruz/Rubio vs. Trump, in TN Lee vs. Black and Sethi vs. Hagerty).

Not truly related, but I'd like to ask you if you know personally anyone in the (tiny) minority of college-educated White evangelicals who vote Democratic and if so what is generally their political philosophy or ideology.

Not sure if Pro-Life Single Issue Voter agrees, but as someone from Greenville, SC (which has areas very similar to Williamson County, TN), here's my analysis...

I don't know any that vote consistently Democratic but I know some (mostly younger) who don't love Trump. In addition to some who are mostly conservative but can't stand Trump as a person, there are plenty of younger evangelicals who take some center-left stances for faith-based reasons and vote based on more than just the typical "evangelical" issues unlike their older, 100% culturally conservative counterparts. They think that Democrats do a better job of helping the poor, support aspects of BLM, and have an at least somewhat liberal view on immigration. Search the "And Campaign" as an example, led by Obama's faith director and a former Democratic strategist. Not all of them would vote consistently Democratic because of abortion and other issues that typically lead Evangelicals to vote Republican, but they aren't down-the-line conservatives.

That's a fair take.  There is one couple at my church that I know is quite liberal.  They don't ever really talk about abortion, but they often talk about BLM and related causes, masks/social distancing, and general dislike of Trump as a person.  The guy would also talk a lot about left-leaning economic policies on social media.  I suspect that the girl is kind of softly pro-life based on one thing she said, but doesn't prioritize it.  I have no idea what the guy thinks of abortion.  I actually haven't seen them at church in a while.  They might have started going to the simulcast service that requires masks or felt the need to watch from home.  They're in their early 20s.

There are some other people in my church who are probably somewhere in the middle of the two warring camps on the racial unrest, but generally have conservative views.  And, I vaguely recall (from a mixer night between the young adults and the "active adults") one older woman being quite anti-Trump when someone else said something pro-Trump, but I don't remember anything more.

Apart from that one couple I mentioned up front, I generally see a range of views from David French-like politics on one end to vehement Trump support amongst the crowd of younger, mostly college educated, Evangelical Christians that I tend to hang around.  I can't say whether any of my friends from church (other than that one couple) will actually vote for Biden (if any did, they would certainly be in the minority), but there are certainly several who don't care for Trump that much even if they might not actually vote against him due to preferring him on the issues.  These observations are based on two theologically conservative churches that I attend for different things (one being my home church (with an active 20s small group) and the other being a church that has even larger young adult-only services on Friday nights).

I'll also say that the more moderately supportive views of BLM while still being largely conservative are mostly held by women, for whatever reason.  I remember having a discussion with just the small group guys from my church over dinner one night, and I was probably in the "left" half of that discussion (and my views aren't really loved by progressives).  Basically, my position was that very few people are racist, but many black people experience the racism of the few, and I understand the frustration and supported peaceful protests, while calling out the ones that turned into riots.  But, I also said that I wasn't a fan of the BLM organization (but was willing to say "black lives matter" when not referring to the actual organization) or "cancel culture".

[Tiger08]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

I was largely talking about the sort of ideological "movement conservatism" and the super churchy parts of the religious right.  Even if those groups aren't the majority of the suburbs (maybe with the exception of my suburb of Williamson County), they are disproportionately found in suburbs.

Another example of this that I've talked about is that (per FOX News's 2018 voter analysis), college educated white evangelicals and non-college white evangelicals vote virtually identically.  However, that covers up major differences between the two groups.  The types of super personally socially conservative things are usually found in more upper-middle class demographics (who almost have political views vaguely similar to Mormons, albeit not quite as skeptical of Trump), while more downscale evangelicals tend to have more of a sort of cultural conservatism.  This is probably more apparent in Republican primaries (i.e. Cruz/Rubio vs. Trump, in TN Lee vs. Black and Sethi vs. Hagerty).

Not truly related, but I'd like to ask you if you know personally anyone in the (tiny) minority of college-educated White evangelicals who vote Democratic and if so what is generally their political philosophy or ideology.

Not sure if Pro-Life Single Issue Voter agrees, but as someone from Greenville, SC (which has areas very similar to Williamson County, TN), here's my analysis...

I don't know any that vote consistently Democratic but I know some (mostly younger) who don't love Trump. In addition to some who are mostly conservative but can't stand Trump as a person, there are plenty of younger evangelicals who take some center-left stances for faith-based reasons and vote based on more than just the typical "evangelical" issues unlike their older, 100% culturally conservative counterparts. They think that Democrats do a better job of helping the poor, support aspects of BLM, and have an at least somewhat liberal view on immigration. Search the "And Campaign" as an example, led by Obama's faith director and a former Democratic strategist. Not all of them would vote consistently Democratic because of abortion and other issues that typically lead Evangelicals to vote Republican, but they aren't down-the-line conservatives.

That's a fair take.  There is one couple at my church that I know is quite liberal.  They don't ever really talk about abortion, but they often talk about BLM and related causes, masks/social distancing, and general dislike of Trump as a person.  The guy would also talk a lot about left-leaning economic policies on social media.  I suspect that the girl is kind of softly pro-life based on one thing she said, but doesn't prioritize it.  I have no idea what the guy thinks of abortion.  I actually haven't seen them at church in a while.  They might have started going to the simulcast service that requires masks or felt the need to watch from home.  They're in their early 20s.

There are some other people in my church who are probably somewhere in the middle of the two warring camps on the racial unrest, but generally have conservative views.  And, I vaguely recall (from a mixer night between the young adults and the "active adults") one older woman being quite anti-Trump when someone else said something pro-Trump, but I don't remember anything more.

Apart from that one couple I mentioned up front, I generally see a range of views from David French-like politics on one end to vehement Trump support amongst the crowd of younger, mostly college educated, Evangelical Christians that I tend to hang around.  I can't say whether any of my friends from church (other than that one couple) will actually vote for Biden (if any did, they would certainly be in the minority), but there are certainly several who don't care for Trump that much even if they might not actually vote against him due to preferring him on the issues.  These observations are based on two theologically conservative churches that I attend for different things (one being my home church (with an active 20s small group) and the other being a church that has even larger young adult-only services on Friday nights).

I'll also say that the more moderately supportive views of BLM are largely held by women, for whatever reason.  I remember having a discussion with just the small group guys from my church over dinner one night, and I was probably in the "left" half of that discussion (and my views aren't really loved by progressives).  Basically, my position was that very few people are racist, but many black people experience the racism of the few, and I understand the frustration and supported peaceful protests, while calling out the ones that turned into riots.  But, I also said that I wasn't a fan of the BLM organization (but was willing to say "black lives matter" when not referring to the actual organization) or "cancel culture".

We have very similar social circles and pretty similar views on this particular topic. I'd say David French-esque views and people in the middle of the race relations debate are common. Lots of people who supported Rubio in '16 (as I did) and who either will vote third party, write in, or reluctant Trump.  I agree that women tend to be more sympathetic to BLM or some other left-leaning positions than men are.

[RINO Tom]

I’d think Woodford County, IL would be blue.  It’s very ancestrally Republican and has some fairly affluent exurbs of Peoria like Germantown Hills.

[darklordoftech]

the following chart, which depicts the American electorate spread predominately across three of the four quadrants (sorry, libertarians):

This picture doesn’t show up anymore.

[Sol]

Interesting.  Not sure that I totally buy the size of the commutarian group- and I'm not a huge fan of 2 axis charts.  Sometimes they have an agenda (e.g. the political compass trying to say that the Democrats are conservative or libertarian organizations trying to push people into the bottom right), but regardless, they are not super descriptive for an ideology.

The part I really do find interesting is that this suggests that conservatism as an ideology is actually rooted in the suburbs and is not inversly correlated to education at all.  I've been saying that for a long time.  I imagine that the same actually applies for the backbone of religious-based social conservative movements.  Even if it's not everybody in well-off suburbs, movements like these tend to have their most fervent support in suburbs.  For example, I guarantee you that evangelicals who actually don't drink, save themselves for marriage, avoid cursing, and the like come from a lot less rural and "white working class" backgrounds than a lot of people assume.

you think suburbanites tend to be more traditionalist than those in rural areas?

I was largely talking about the sort of ideological "movement conservatism" and the super churchy parts of the religious right.  Even if those groups aren't the majority of the suburbs (maybe with the exception of my suburb of Williamson County), they are disproportionately found in suburbs.

Another example of this that I've talked about is that (per FOX News's 2018 voter analysis), college educated white evangelicals and non-college white evangelicals vote virtually identically.  However, that covers up major differences between the two groups.  The types of super personally socially conservative things are usually found in more upper-middle class demographics (who almost have political views vaguely similar to Mormons, albeit not quite as skeptical of Trump), while more downscale evangelicals tend to have more of a sort of cultural conservatism.  This is probably more apparent in Republican primaries (i.e. Cruz/Rubio vs. Trump, in TN Lee vs. Black and Sethi vs. Hagerty).

Not truly related, but I'd like to ask you if you know personally anyone in the (tiny) minority of college-educated White evangelicals who vote Democratic and if so what is generally their political philosophy or ideology.

The most posting poster is one.