August 2019: Who do you predict will be the Democratic nominee?

[IceSpear]

Would be cool if this was tracked over time in a spreadsheet somewhere.  This and the "opinion of the dropouts" stuff.  Not every candidate had an opinion thread when they got into the race but I'd love to see how sentiment changed between when they entered and when they dropped out.

Here's the reaction to Warren when she announced an exploratory committee back in December. Quite a markedly different reception than she gets these days, lol.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310338.0

Anyway, Biden still has the best odds, but he's a weak frontrunner. It does not take much of an imagination to see him getting upended.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Would be cool if this was tracked over time in a spreadsheet somewhere.  This and the "opinion of the dropouts" stuff.  Not every candidate had an opinion thread when they got into the race but I'd love to see how sentiment changed between when they entered and when they dropped out.

Here's the reaction to Warren when she announced an exploratory committee back in December. Quite a markedly different reception than she gets these days, lol.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310338.0

Anyway, Biden still has the best odds, but he's a weak frontrunner. It does not take much of an imagination to see him getting upended.

Wow, somehow I missed the "Warren's a bad campaigner" #analysis, since I wasn't using Atlas much then. Lots of gems for the well-aged content thread, LOL.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Would be cool if this was tracked over time in a spreadsheet somewhere.  This and the "opinion of the dropouts" stuff.  Not every candidate had an opinion thread when they got into the race but I'd love to see how sentiment changed between when they entered and when they dropped out.

Here's the reaction to Warren when she announced an exploratory committee back in December. Quite a markedly different reception than she gets these days, lol.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310338.0

Anyway, Biden still has the best odds, but he's a weak frontrunner. It does not take much of an imagination to see him getting upended.

That aged well LOL.

[Donerail]

1. Warren
2. Sanders
3. Buttigieg
4. Yang

Don’t think Biden has a shot at all, wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop before Iowa. Sad thing, really.

[Deportarian]

Warren will be the nominee. Biden and Kamala will implode. Warren will bridge the gap between the establishment and progressive wing

[BoJack Horseman]

Still Biden.

[Orser67]

Imo Biden and Warren are now the co-frontrunners. To use Silver's style of tiering:

Tier 1A: Biden and Warren
Tier 1B: Harris
Tier 2A: Sanders
Tier 2B: Buttigieg
Tier 2C: Booker, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Castro
Tier 3A: Yang, Steyer
Tier 3B: Everyone else

How does any objective person have Harris in front of Sanders?

Because I continue to think that Sanders has a much lower ceiling of support than Harris does, among both the general populace and among key early state activists.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Still Joe Biden

[TarHeelDem]

1. Warren
2. Biden

I have a hard time seeing anyone else winning.

[SnowLabrador]

Clearly Biden.

[Sir Mohamed]

Warren, with 70-80% chance. 20% chance it will be Biden, the rest is a longshot at best, including Sanders and Harris.

[Kamala-Tim 2024]

I think at this point it’s either Biden or Warren, and I’m too much of a pessimist to think that Biden’s going to have a magic moment where he suddenly implodes so I voted for him.

[Orser67]

Friendly reminder to everyone that:

-In August 2007, Rudy Giuliani was the clear-cut polling leader for the Republican nomination and Fred Thompson was second. Meanwhile, Clinton had a 15- to 20-point lead over Obama in RealClearPolitics's polling average.
-Between July 2011 and December 2011, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich all led in the RCP polling averages.
-In late September 2015, Trump led polling but most people (hindsight bias aside) thought that he couldn't win the nomination. Carson and Fiorina were at second and third in the RCP polling average.

I think that the nominee will almost certainly be one of the ten candidates who will be at the next debate, but Biden and/or Warren are hardly shoe-ins at this point.

[ShadowRocket]

I went with my gut and voted for Warren, though my head is saying Biden. Though I think Harris still has a shot depending on how she performs over the next couple of months.

[Hermit For Peace]

My logic tells me that it's going to take a female to clean up the mess Trump is leaving in Washington. Females are a natural fit to clean house, we were brought up doing it. Plus, I think the country is starved for a "mother's touch." Like I said, this is my logic and I hope I'm right. Warren seems to be capturing the imagination of the country and I'd like to see her as the next 2-term President.