Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[DavidB.]

That projection seems really wild. All of SNS, Republika and SR out.

[RGM2609]

It would seem that the Putinist side wasn't large enough to sustain 3 parties, and Smer ended up cannibalizing their prospective partners. But ofc, only 300,000 votes in out of the expected over 3 million.

[Storr]

We're getting the first trickle of votes from Bratislava region (4% of polling stations reporting). All other regions are reporting from 16% to 43.8%.

[DavidB.]

How did Republika implode so much? They were at 10% in the polls this summer. I suppose part of the reason is the one RGM2609 alluded to, i.e. potential Republika voters eventually opting for Smer to prevent PS from becoming the biggest party. But did Republika run a bad/invisible campaign?

[Estrella]

28% counted, now with significant numbers from large villages and small towns, but still very little from the cities. Smer 25, Hlas 17, PS 13, OĽANO 9, KDH  7, SNS 6, Szövetség 6, Republika 5, SaS 5, Sme rodina 3, Demokrati 2, ĽSNS 1. Turnout is in the high 50s or low 60s in the Hungarian regions and in the 70s in most of the rest of the country.

[Logical]

That projection has the Hungarians getting in. Somehow I doubt it.

[crals]

Assuming the exit polls were somewhat correct and PS will come 1st or close to it, the difference between how rural and urban areas vote is absolutely massive, wow.

Good news that the far-right might be entirely shut out of parliament. It doesn't look like Fico can easily form a government even if he comes 1st.

[RGM2609]

I think a lot of Republika voters also opted for the SNS (polling at 2-3% until a month ago or something), though I don't exactly know why.

[Logical]

Another projection from aktuality.sk
https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/lAhyw6c/predpoved-vysledkov-pre-volby-2023-republika-je-na-hranici-zvolitelnosti/

Three parties, SNS, Alliance and Republika fighting the threshold.

[Estrella]

How did Republika implode so much? They were at 10% in the polls this summer. I suppose part of the reason is the one RGM2609 alluded to, i.e. potential Republika voters eventually opting for Smer to prevent PS from becoming the biggest party. But did Republika run a bad/invisible campaign?

I have no idea. There was a lot of talk about SNS taking Republika's voters, but they're hardly doing better. Republika's campaign seemed pretty good to me, they had a lot of posters and were very active on social media. In the debates they didn't talk about economic issues or even EU/NATO/Soros, but rather silly proposals about banning the use of foreign languages in ads or banning shops from selling Christmas decorations too long before Christmas (really), so I guess that could be a part of it?

I think a lot of Republika voters also opted for the SNS (polling at 2-3% until a month ago or something), though I don't exactly know why.

SNS was doing a little better than that for longer. This is probably a part of it, but there are much more Republika votes that went elsewhere.

That projection has the Hungarians getting in. Somehow I doubt it.

Yeah, I can buy PS underperforming and Hlas overperforming, but Alliance at 6% is just wtf.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sme rodina, Dems and Alliance out.

Zoroslav Kollár popping champagne rn

[DavidB.]

New projection has Smer 21.7, PS 17.4, Hlas 14.7. Alliance is at 5.4, SNS at 5.3 and Republika at 4.8.

https://dennikn.sk/volby/vysledky/

[Estrella]

The map so far.



Red = Smer, burgundy = Hlas, light blue = PS, dark blue = KDH, green = Alliance, yellow = OĽANO.

[RGM2609]

What's up with that OLANO district lol? What kind of people live there?

[Estrella]

Sme rodina, Dems and Alliance out.

Zoroslav Kollár popping champagne rn

You can probably figure out what it says.

[DavidB.]

What's up with that OLANO district lol? What kind of people live there?

Ordinary people and independent personalities.

(I know this joke was already made but I had to do it anyway.)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the likelihood Smer is heading the government?

[Estrella]

What's up with that OLANO district lol? What kind of people live there?

It's Revúca, a deeply rural postindustrial hellscape where they're currently 26 votes ahead of Smer

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Crap, so what’s the likely government? Is it really likely that much will *actually* change especially foreign policy and lgbt wise?

[RGM2609]

What's up with that OLANO district lol? What kind of people live there?

It's Revúca, a deeply rural postindustrial hellscape where they're currently 26 votes ahead of Smer

Interstingly, they only barely won it in their 2020 romp. Shifting coalitions maybe?

[Estrella]

What is the likelihood Smer is heading the government?

Ask Pellegrini who he'll go with ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Crap, so what’s the likely government? Is it really likely that much will *actually* change especially foreign policy and lgbt wise?

Ask Pellegrini how much he'll allow ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[RGM2609]

But if the fascists, nazis, and Fidesz all get spit out of Parliament, who will even be the third partner in Smer+Hlas? (if you dan't tell, I find this election night highly addictive)

[Logical]

But if the fascists, nazis, and Fidesz all get spit out of Parliament, who will even be the third partner in Smer+Hlas? (if you dan't tell, I find this election night highly addictive)

The Papists

[DavidB.]

Estrella should absolutely correct me if I'm talking nonsense, but when clicking on the map I get the impression Olano is doing relatively well in some of the deprived areas where L'SNS used to do well, while Republika doesn't do that well at all in such areas; a little counterintuitively they do better in the north central part. (Edit: looks like this effect is getting less strong after numbers being updated).

A new projection with 37% of the vote in has Alliance now also below the threshold, at 4.7% - but potential Smer partner SNS still in.

[rob in cal]

Looks like the threshold might mean about 18% of the vote to nationalists plus Hungarians gets wasted if SNS and Republicans miss out.