Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[Estrella]

15% in. Oľano 23, Smer 22, ĽSNS 9, Sme rodina 9, PS Spolu 5, Za ľudí 5, SaS 4, SNS 4, MKÖ 4, DV 3, Vlasť 3, turnout 64.8% (+5 points).

Smer held its press conference, and Fico - still the official party leader - didn't even show up. PM Pellegrini admitted that Smer was "burdened" by what happened in the past years but otherwise kept stonewalling.

[Wikipedia delenda est]

Some quick takeaways:

- Really, horribly, disastrously bad result for Smer: they are set to be halved compared to 2016, which already was an underwhelming number and steep fall from their 44% landslide victory in 2012.

- It's also a catastrophic result for the whole governing coalition: from 49% in 2016, its constituent parties look like they're getting 18-20% tonight. This is a Canada 1993 / Poland 2001 scale of defeat.

- Encouragingly, other nationalists and populists are also having a very meh night: Both Sme rodina and ĽSNS gaining all but crumbs, Vlasť stalling at the start line and SNS falling to an awful 3%.

- At the first glance, Matovič may seem like an acerbic, loudmouthed populist - don't get me wrong, he is one, and I don't really like him as a person, but he's also a policy wonk and ideologically a moderate, mainstream conservative. His victory speech sounded pretty good - like mentioning how he's proud of having Roma and Hungarians on his party's list.

- Three parties are dancing within one point of the threshold: Za ľudí, KDH and MKÖ (the other Hungarian party besides Most). We'll have to wait and see how they end up.

It's a pretty sad reflection on Slovak politics when somebody with a Green Party avatar is cheering on the victory of a "mainstream conservative". Why can't the country just have a normal center-left or social democratic party that isn't completely evil and corrupt?

[rob in cal]

  Assuming PS Spolu ends up around 9% why didn't they get more of vote?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1233946580299984899

[rob in cal]

  Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If this goes the way it looks like its going then this is basically the best result I could have hoped for: Smer crushed, PS/S out, and Sulik with the most bargaining power he realistically could have expected this time around.

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

Unlikely. If it came down to it I'd imagine O'LaNO will make a coalition with SR and SaS or ZL.

[Walmart_shopper]

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

I mean, I assume SaS and ZL will supporr OLANO, and those parties slipping over the threshold should make all the difference. Including those parties an OLANO-led bloc has a 77-71 lead in terms of seat distribution. But, yes, Caputova's Progressive party will likely not make it, but I would imagine they would probably be harder to work with than ZL and SaS, who are closer to the right wing, economically liberal position of OLANO.

A weird result, for sure.

[rob in cal]

  Wow, PS/Spolu now at 6.9% with 98% counted. they go up every vote count.

[Estrella]

Wow. Wow. What an embarassment. 99.9% in, PS Spolu at 6.96%. When Kiska and Matovič started rising, they should have known that their wave of being the main anti-Smer party wouldn't last and that most people consider them too hipster and liberal, but they vaingloriously refused to merge and we ended up with this. I held great hope for them as people who would finally break through the conservative mold of politics-as-usual and move this country in a better direction, but they deserve every last bit of this for their sheer stupidity. </rant>

[Estrella]

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

I mean, I assume SaS and ZL will supporr OLANO, and those parties slipping over the threshold should make all the difference. Including those parties an OLANO-led bloc has a 77-71 lead in terms of seat distribution. But, yes, Caputova's Progressive party will likely not make it, but I would imagine they would probably be harder to work with than ZL and SaS, who are closer to the right wing, economically liberal position of OLANO.

A weird result, for sure.

Matovič (Oľano) and Kollár (Sme rodina) have been getting friendly with each other since the results came out - the latter doing a 180° from populist rants to saying how he wants to join a government where he can help the people who were left behind etc. He's actually pretty lefty on economics, and Matovič and Kiska (Za ľudí) are very different from the libertarian Sulík (SaS). That makes Oľano+Sme rodina+Za ľudí the most compatible coalition ideologically. 82 seats is more than enough for a defection-proof majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

I literally cannot believe how conservative Slovakia is.

[Walmart_shopper]

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

I mean, I assume SaS and ZL will supporr OLANO, and those parties slipping over the threshold should make all the difference. Including those parties an OLANO-led bloc has a 77-71 lead in terms of seat distribution. But, yes, Caputova's Progressive party will likely not make it, but I would imagine they would probably be harder to work with than ZL and SaS, who are closer to the right wing, economically liberal position of OLANO.

A weird result, for sure.

Matovič (Oľano) and Kollár (Sme rodina) have been getting friendly with each other since the results came out - the latter doing a 180° from populist rants to saying how he wants to join a government where he can help the people who were left behind etc. He's actually pretty lefty on economics, and Matovič and Kiska (Za ľudí) are very different from the libertarian Sulík (SaS). That makes Oľano+Sme rodina+Za ľudí the most compatible coalition ideologically. 82 seats is more than enough for a defection-proof majority.

So this would actually be a considerably more right wing government than currently exists right now , correct?

[Estrella]

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

I mean, I assume SaS and ZL will supporr OLANO, and those parties slipping over the threshold should make all the difference. Including those parties an OLANO-led bloc has a 77-71 lead in terms of seat distribution. But, yes, Caputova's Progressive party will likely not make it, but I would imagine they would probably be harder to work with than ZL and SaS, who are closer to the right wing, economically liberal position of OLANO.

A weird result, for sure.

Matovič (Oľano) and Kollár (Sme rodina) have been getting friendly with each other since the results came out - the latter doing a 180° from populist rants to saying how he wants to join a government where he can help the people who were left behind etc. He's actually pretty lefty on economics, and Matovič and Kiska (Za ľudí) are very different from the libertarian Sulík (SaS). That makes Oľano+Sme rodina+Za ľudí the most compatible coalition ideologically. 82 seats is more than enough for a defection-proof majority.

So this would actually be a considerably more right wing government than currently exists right now , correct?

Eh, not really. Probably a bit more economically liberal, especially if SaS joins, but then Matovič has promised not to cut social programs (which are very popular anyway). Socially, they may even be slightly social liberal than their predecessors - SaS are libertarians, OĽANO and Za ľudí are slightly socon, but not in an unhinged SNS-like way and Kollár seems to care more about economic issues.

[Estrella]

Final tallies

Turnout | 65.80% | +5.98 | best since 2002

OĽANO | 25.02% | +13.99 | 53 seats | +34
Smer-SD | 18.29% | -9.99 | 38 seats | -11
Sme rodina | 8.24% | +1.61 | 17 seats | +6
ĽSNS | 7.97% | -0.07 | 17 seats | +3
PS-Spolu | 6.96% | new | 0 seats | n/a
SaS | 6.22% | -5.88 | 13 seats | -8
Za ľudí | 5.77% | new | 12 seats | n/a
KDH | 4.65% | -0.29 | 0 seats | nc
MKÖ | 3.90% | -0.15 | 0 seats | nc
SNS | 3.16% | -5.48 | 0 seats | -15
Dobrá voľba | 3.06% | new | 0 seats | n/a
Vlasť | 2.93% | new | 0 seats | n/a
Most-Híd | 2.05% | -4.45 | 0 seats | -11
Others | 1.78%

Wasted votes | 28.49% | +15.32 | highest number ever

Outgoing coalition | 23.50% | -25.53 | 38 seats | -47

There's a nice clickable results map at volby.sme.sk/parlamentne-volby/2020/vysledky.

All in all, maybe not an amazing, but for sure a pretty good result: fascists actually losing votes, other nationalists treading water, Cosa Nostra falling through the floor, liberals not getting in but conservatives and Matovič are probably the best we could realistically hope for.

In a couple of days, the president is going to invite all the party leaders (except Kotleba, if precedent from last time holds) for talks and Igor Matovič is going to be the first to get the opportunity to form a coalition.

[crals]

PS-Spolu lol... what an embarrassment

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

I mean, I assume SaS and ZL will supporr OLANO, and those parties slipping over the threshold should make all the difference. Including those parties an OLANO-led bloc has a 77-71 lead in terms of seat distribution. But, yes, Caputova's Progressive party will likely not make it, but I would imagine they would probably be harder to work with than ZL and SaS, who are closer to the right wing, economically liberal position of OLANO.

A weird result, for sure.

Matovič (Oľano) and Kollár (Sme rodina) have been getting friendly with each other since the results came out - the latter doing a 180° from populist rants to saying how he wants to join a government where he can help the people who were left behind etc. He's actually pretty lefty on economics, and Matovič and Kiska (Za ľudí) are very different from the libertarian Sulík (SaS). That makes Oľano+Sme rodina+Za ľudí the most compatible coalition ideologically. 82 seats is more than enough for a defection-proof majority.

Don't Kollár and some of his MPs also have links to organised crime?

[Estrella]

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

I mean, I assume SaS and ZL will supporr OLANO, and those parties slipping over the threshold should make all the difference. Including those parties an OLANO-led bloc has a 77-71 lead in terms of seat distribution. But, yes, Caputova's Progressive party will likely not make it, but I would imagine they would probably be harder to work with than ZL and SaS, who are closer to the right wing, economically liberal position of OLANO.

A weird result, for sure.

Matovič (Oľano) and Kollár (Sme rodina) have been getting friendly with each other since the results came out - the latter doing a 180° from populist rants to saying how he wants to join a government where he can help the people who were left behind etc. He's actually pretty lefty on economics, and Matovič and Kiska (Za ľudí) are very different from the libertarian Sulík (SaS). That makes Oľano+Sme rodina+Za ľudí the most compatible coalition ideologically. 82 seats is more than enough for a defection-proof majority.

Don't Kollár and some of his MPs also have links to organised crime?

No idea about his MPs, but Kollár himself likely does - that was overshadowed by other events until now, but it might start coming to the surface.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

 Am I reading this correctly that PS Spolu needs 7% and might not get in? and that Smer, LSNS and SR might have a majority? Would they work together to stop an OLANO government from being formed?

I mean, I assume SaS and ZL will supporr OLANO, and those parties slipping over the threshold should make all the difference. Including those parties an OLANO-led bloc has a 77-71 lead in terms of seat distribution. But, yes, Caputova's Progressive party will likely not make it, but I would imagine they would probably be harder to work with than ZL and SaS, who are closer to the right wing, economically liberal position of OLANO.

A weird result, for sure.

Matovič (Oľano) and Kollár (Sme rodina) have been getting friendly with each other since the results came out - the latter doing a 180° from populist rants to saying how he wants to join a government where he can help the people who were left behind etc. He's actually pretty lefty on economics, and Matovič and Kiska (Za ľudí) are very different from the libertarian Sulík (SaS). That makes Oľano+Sme rodina+Za ľudí the most compatible coalition ideologically. 82 seats is more than enough for a defection-proof majority.

Don't Kollár and some of his MPs also have links to organised crime?

No idea about his MPs, but Kollár himself likely does - that was overshadowed by other events until now, but it might start coming to the surface.

Who better to clean up after Smer than a somehow even more obvious criminal?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

In a fully proportional system:

Slovak Parli 2020:

OL'ANO-NOVA-KU-ZMENA ZDOLA: 37 seats (-16)
SMER-SD: 27 seats (-9)
SME RODINA: 12 seats (-5)
KOTLEBA-LSNS: 12 seats (-5)
PS-SPOLU: 10 seats (+10)
SaS: 9 seats (-4)
ZA L'UDI: 9 seats (-3)
KDH: 7 seats (+7)
SMK-MKP: 6 seats (+6)
SNS: 5 seats (+5)
GOOD CHOICE: 5 seats (+5)
HOMELAND: 5 seats (+5)
Most-hid: 3 seats (+3)
Socialisti.sk: 1 seat (+1)
WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH!: 1 seat (+1)
Andrej Hlinka's Slovak People's Party: 1 seat (+1)

HOMELAND takes the last seat over PS-SPOLU [.346 quotas vs .325 quotas]

some parties aren't translated, and I probably botched some names but you get the point

[Estrella]

Well, that was fast.

Yesterday evening, OĽANO, Sme rodina, SaS and Za ľudí finally agreed on a four-party "cloverleaf" coalition after just 13 days of negotiations - the desire to prevent Pellegrini from getting credit for handling corona played a part for sure. The deal should be finalized in the next week or so and we'll get Prime Minister Matovič and with him a change of guards in every ministry in the middle of a huge crisis :/

Weirdly, while many countries seem to be in a this-is-fine-says-the-dog-in-a-burning-house mode, it's the exact opposite here. The first case was registered last Friday, but supermarket shelves were emptying already a week before that. We're at 32 cases now, the government has declared an "extraordinary situation", closed the borders, airports, schools, shopping centres, cinemas etc etc etc, limited public transport and bragged about how we have the second strictest set of measures in Europe after Italy.

At least they're doing something.

[Estrella]

The PM-elect on a press conference about the negotiations

[Estrella]

Stumbled upon some mighty good news about young voters:



Maaaybeee this country isn't utterly doomed after all?

[Estrella]

Amidst all the chaos, since yesterday we have a new government:

Prime Minister: Igor Matovič (OĽaNO)
Finance: Eduard Heger (OĽaNO)
Interior: Roman Mikulec (OĽaNO)
Foreign and European Affairs: Ivan Korčok (SaS)
Economy: Richard Sulík (SaS)
Health: Marek Krajčí (OĽaNO)
Education: Branislav Gröhling (SaS)
Defence: Jaroslav Naď (OĽaNO)
Labour and Social Affairs: Milan Krajniak (SR)
Justice: Mária Kolíková (ZĽ)
Transport: Andrej Doležal (SR)
Culture: Natália Milanová (OĽaNO)
Agriculture: Ján Mičovský (OĽaNO)
Environment: Ján Budaj (OĽaNO)
Regional Development and Investments: Veronika Remišová (ZĽ)

Coalition (OĽaNO, SR, SaS, ZĽ): 95 seats (a supermajority enabling them to change the Constitution)
Opposition (Smer-SD, Kotleba): 55 seats

In other news, despite the lockdown, the trial of several judges bribed by Marián Kočner is still on *looks at Israel with a frown* It's like a small Tangentopoli and a fitting end to the era of Smer. So what's better than going to the beginning of that era and taking a look at a Smer ad from their first election in 2002?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6A_82-p3tM

What Fico is saying over the weirdly upbeat music that doesn't really fit the content of the ad is this:

Smer was never afraid to call things by their name. [... some stuff about farmers ... ] We also have the courage to talk about the irresponsible growth of Roma population. Even though we're going to be criticised abroad, we're prepared to lead a social policy that will require parents to take responsibility for raising their children. [...] We will do everything to prevent the time bomb of growth of Roma population from exploding and the ethno-tourism [sic] of speculator population groups from discriminating the rest of the country. Stay with us and vote for order.

[Former President tack50]

Given the government has a supermajority, have they announced any sort of constitutional changes they want to make?

[Estrella]

Given the government has a supermajority, have they announced any sort of constitutional changes they want to make?

They haven't mentioned anything, and there isn't talk of any problems that could be solved by changing the constitution. Of course, they might come up with something once this crisis is over.