Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[bigic]

I got Most-Hid (75%), but if were a Slovak I won't even consider voting for the party.

[Former President tack50]

Got Dobrá voľba at 71%. No idea who they are tbh, other than that they seem to be polling below the threshold

[Wikipedia delenda est]

Ew, I got Smer at 68%, how awful. In the quiz I supported socially liberal policies and minority rights, so I'm actually quite surprised. In any case, I don't care what this quiz says, as there's no way I'm supporting Fico and his goons. Go PS-SPOLU!

[Walmart_shopper]

Sme Rodina at 75%.

K.

[Walmart_shopper]

So can someone tell me if my read on the election is correct? Slovak elections are messier and more fragmented than Brazilian elections

A liberal-conservative bloc is likely, though far from guaranteed, to unseat the socially conservative Socialist Smer party. Practically, that would mean a more pro-Europe, liberalized economic and foreign policy and a more socially liberal approach towards migrants and lgbt issues. If somehow Smer pulls it out then they will likely need to ally with actual Nazis to get a majority in parliament.

How accurate is this?

[😥]

Got Dobrá voľba at 78%. What are their ideologies? Is their leader a former member of Smer-SD?

[Estrella]

Sme Rodina at 75%.

K.

what

So can someone tell me if my read on the election is correct? Slovak elections are messier and more fragmented than Brazilian elections

A liberal-conservative bloc is likely, though far from guaranteed, to unseat the socially conservative Socialist Smer party. Practically, that would mean a more pro-Europe, liberalized economic and foreign policy and a more socially liberal approach towards migrants and lgbt issues. If somehow Smer pulls it out then they will likely need to ally with actual Nazis to get a majority in parliament.

How accurate is this?

Nyes...if your head is spinning from the sheer number of parties, you can split them into a 'left-nationalist' and 'liberal-conservative' block, based on actual ideological differences, but when it comes to coalition negotiations, that's beyond useless. After the election four years ago, it took just 18 days (!) to convince the loudest anti-Fico parties (Most-Híd and the late #Sieť) to join Smer, hammer out a coalition agreement and let Fico continue as if nothing happened. Besides, the latter block is definitely more conservative than liberal.

Got Dobrá voľba at 78%. What are their ideologies? Is their leader a former member of Smer-SD?

A party of Tomáš Drucker, ex-Smer Minister of Health, built around Drucker's money, personality and fluffy moderate heroism.

[PSOL]

So wait, there are actual socialists or chavistas in Smer-SD?

[Astatine]

Is there any reason for OL'anos upward trend in the recent polls? They appear to have a good chance for second place (in a bit better position that Kotleba) and only trail Smer by 4-5 points in the last polls before the polling ban.

[Estrella]

So wait, there are actual socialists or chavistas in Smer-SD?

Well, they have one high-profile far-leftist MP, Ľuboš Blaha. I've been calling him a Chavista because he has that air of authoritarian leftism around him, but this intrigued me and as I read up more about him, I found out he's probably closer to a literal tankie. His Facebook (because that is where political debate takes place in Slovakia, not Twitter) is full of rants about (((liberals))), Islam, "Russophobia", capitalism, the evil Ukraine and America, EU, consumerism ("children of hamburgers") and similar stuff that you'd expect from parties like KKE or far-right. The rest of Smer is nothing like him, but I'm guessing that as long as he doesn't threaten the party's top cats, they're willing to tolerate him. If you want less insane hard-left, there's Eduard Chmelár and his party Socialisti.sk. They might get 1-2% if they're lucky, though.

Is there any reason for OL'anos upward trend in the recent polls? They appear to have a good chance for second place (in a bit better position that Kotleba) and only trail Smer by 4-5 points in the last polls before the polling ban.

I've heard that it might be because people see Matovič as more experienced? No idea if that's what it is, though.


Also, he polls are apparently quite bad for the government because - even though the last session ended a couple of weeks ago - they called an emergency session of the parliament to pass several "please vote for us" spending packages. The opposition's response to this was a chaotic attempt at a filibuster, until they gave up and the Speaker rescheduled the session to Tuesday.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

PS with 68%, seems about right. Not a huge fan but the best choice that's available and actually will win seats.

[Vosem]

Go SaS!

[Estrella]

So, today's the day. The polls are open 7:00-22:00, but due to incidents that interrupted voting (death of a voter in one case, death of one of the polling station staff in another), the affected polling stations will not close until 23:00 CET - only then can the exit polls and results be released.

Some super anecdotal data - young people who go to what you probably could call a grammar school vote overwhelmingly OĽANO and PS-Spolu (my school held a mock election and Smer got like 3% lol), I went for the latter of those, my parents both voted Za ľudí (2016: mum #Sieť, dad Most-Híd), my gran (previously a Smer/SNS voter) for Dobrá voľba. tURnoUt RepOrTs, for all their uselessness, say that turnout is high, possibly up from last time around: it was 55-59% in last four parliamentary elections, which isn't bad for these parts of the world, but it's a very steep decline from 84% in 1998 and 94% (!) in the first free election in 1990.

The last poll - illegal, by the way, but you can just publish them in Czechia without all the aubergines/oranges/papal conclaves stuff you get elsewhere - had some very promising numbers: OĽANO 19%, Smer 16%, ĽSNS 10%, PS-Spolu 9%, Sme rodina 7%, SaS 7%, Za ľudí 6%, KDH 5%, everyone else not getting in. Igormentum is real!

The best site to watch the results is volby.sme.sk - in Slovak, but Google Translate does fine.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there a meaningful difference between Smer and PiS in Poland?

[rob in cal]

If OL'ANO gets the most seats, what type of coalition would they try to form?

[Estrella]

Is there a meaningful difference between Smer and PiS in Poland?

There actually is - Smer didn't turn towards Polish/Hungarian soft authoritarianism even when it had a majority by itself, it comes from the opposite side of political spectrum (descending from Communists rather than Catholic/conservative/nationalist movements) and, despite occasional rambling, is much more pro-EU - I can't see a PiS-led government leading Poland into the Eurozone.

If OL'ANO gets the most seats, what type of coalition would they try to form?

Anything that gets rid of Smer and doesn't include Kotleba. Something like OĽANO-PS Spolu-Za ľudí-SaS plus one other partner - perhaps KDH or maaaaybe Sme rodina.

[Estrella]

A TV livestream, if anyone wants to watch: https://www.rtvs.sk/televizia/live-1. No idea if it works abroad, though.

[rob in cal]

  Will the leading party, even if it is only in the high teens, get the first crack at forming a new government?

[Mike88]

A TV livestream, if anyone wants to watch: https://www.rtvs.sk/televizia/live-1. No idea if it works abroad, though.

Thanks! It works, for me at least.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

A TV livestream, if anyone wants to watch: https://www.rtvs.sk/televizia/live-1. No idea if it works abroad, though.

Thanks! It works, for me at least.

Same here, so it also works outside the EU

[Estrella]

Exit poll:

OĽANO 25%
Smer 14%
PS Spolu 9%
ĽSNS 9%
Sme rodina 8%
SaS 7%
Za ľudí 6%
KDH 5%

Everyone else under the threshold

[Estrella]

Some quick takeaways:

- Really, horribly, disastrously bad result for Smer: they are set to be halved compared to 2016, which already was an underwhelming number and steep fall from their 44% landslide victory in 2012.

- It's also a catastrophic result for the whole governing coalition: from 49% in 2016, its constituent parties look like they're getting 18-20% tonight. This is a Canada 1993 / Poland 2001 scale of defeat.

- Encouragingly, other nationalists and populists are also having a very meh night: Both Sme rodina and ĽSNS gaining all but crumbs, Vlasť stalling at the start line and SNS falling to an awful 3%.

- At the first glance, Matovič may seem like an acerbic, loudmouthed populist - don't get me wrong, he is one, and I don't really like him as a person, but he's also a policy wonk and ideologically a moderate, mainstream conservative. His victory speech sounded pretty good - like mentioning how he's proud of having Roma and Hungarians on his party's list.

- Three parties are dancing within one point of the threshold: Za ľudí, KDH and MKÖ (the other Hungarian party besides Most). We'll have to wait and see how they end up.

[rob in cal]

  So a lot of wasted votes, especially if KDH doesnt make it.

[Estrella]

Really emotional and hopeful speech at the OĽANO headquarters by Ján Budaj and Milan Kňažko, two leaders of the 1989 Velvet Revolution, calling this election a "third step" in bringing in freedom after the revolution and the 1998 vote that tossed out Vladimír Mečiar. 

Anyway, what explain this huge defeat? The exit poll tells the story:

Are you satisfied with the current situation in Slovakia?
40% Very dissatisfied
40% Rather dissatisfied
16% Rather satisfied
3% Very satisfied
1% Didn't say

Smer was the ruling party for 12 of the past 14 years, and their neverending list of scandals has come back to bite them - and how!

[Estrella]

  So a lot of wasted votes, especially if KDH doesnt make it.

Nothing new - 10+% wasted votes is completely normal, and in 1992 it was as high as 24%.