Slovak Elections and Politics: presidential runoff on 6 April 🇸🇰
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  Slovak Elections and Politics: presidential runoff on 6 April 🇸🇰
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for? 🇸🇰🗳️
#1
Peter Pellegrini (Hlas-Smer)
 
#2
Ivan Korčok (SaS-PS-KDH)
 
#3
Štefan Harabin (far-right)
 
#4
Patrik Dubovský (conservative)
 
#5
Igor Matovič (Slovensko)
 
#6
Andrej Danko (SNS)
 
#7
Marian Kotleba (ĽSNS)
 
#8
Ján Kubiš (independent)
 
#9
Other
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 36

Author Topic: Slovak Elections and Politics: presidential runoff on 6 April 🇸🇰  (Read 76063 times)
Estrella
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2019, 01:52:53 PM »
« edited: October 17, 2019, 01:56:21 PM by Estrella »

A summary of the past 48 hours:

If you scroll a couple of posts above, you can read about the Gorila case - release of transcripts of conversations about all kinds of shady financial dealings that put the final nail in the coffin of Iveta Radičová's 2010-2012 government. After that, Gorila was generally thought to be dead - until yesterday, when editors' offices of major Slovak media received an anonymous email with a link to the full Gorila tapes.

The main villain in this story is Jaroslav Haščák - entrepreneur, financier and the main partner in Penta Investments Group, a conglomerate that owns, among other things, several privatized public hospitals and a health insurance company. They are widely disliked for their extremely close relationship to Smer in general and Fico in particular. The whole affair is a horribly complicated clusterfck, but the gist of the tapes is that Haščák tried to influence various politicians, including Robert Fico, to push policies favorable to Penta & friends, in exchange for donations to their parties.

This has unleashed a wave of Gorilamania from Slovak media (there's even a Spotify playlist of all the songs playing in the backgroung) and, more seriously, the first political fallout: OĽANO leader Igor Matovič invaded Smer's press conference with a Gorila quote from Fico about financing of Smer's electoral campaigns which, if true, could be used to indict him.

Gorila already killed one PM and she's getting ready for another one.

(Also, woohoo, second page! Cheesy)
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2019, 03:38:00 PM »




Coca Cola decided to use the affair for marketing purposes and they decided to post graphic with inscription which says "Finally you will hear that" obviously referring to the Fico recordings as there were also monkey emoji. Fico for year were stating that he has nothing in common with that affair and now we have proof that he had.
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Estrella
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2019, 04:03:35 PM »




Coca Cola decided to use the affair for marketing purposes and they decided to post graphic with inscription which says "Finally you will hear that" obviously referring to the Fico recordings as there were also monkey emoji. Fico for year were stating that he has nothing in common with that affair and now we have proof that he had.

I'm getting reeeally off topic here, but it's connected to this:
Smer certainly don't celebrate like champagne socialists (and yes, this is where I got the title from, Fico and Cola is kind of a meme here)
which was revived by the fact that the recordings include a conversation where Fico asks Haščák for some Coke, but not diet, because he hates the taste. The ads are really writing themselves Cheesy

And if you had any doubts about us living in a Monty Python sketch, it's worth nothing that the Matovič press conference invasion almost turned into a fistfight:

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Estrella
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« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2019, 01:10:10 PM »

Unsurprisingly, the Awakening of the Gorila (I'm gonna trademark this) has unleashed yet another wave of anti-Fico protests in the big cities. Encouragingly, they seem to be led by young people. Larger protests can be expected over the weekend, perhaps in the tens of thousands.



Keeping Up with the Partyshians episode 547712

Eduard Chmelár, a former member of Slovakia's irrelevant Green Party and a presidential candidate earlier this year (2.8%) decided to found his own political party, Socialisti.sk. He's rather vague on any kind of policies, but he's known to be generally hard left and green, quite populist, Euroskeptic ("EU is a band of losers") and unclear on social issues - I guess you could compare him to Jean-Luc Mélénchon. IMO Slovakia needed this kind of political option (even though there's no way I'd vote for him), but Slovak hard/far-left has tended to be conspirationist Chavista crackpots (eg. Ľuboš Blaha), and he might turn out to be the same thing.

Now, a brand new poll:

Smer-SD        20.1%
PS-Spolu        12.7%
Kotleba-ĽSNS 12.3%
Za ľudí           12.0%
SaS                 6.7%
SNS                 6.4%
Sme rodina      5.9%
OĽANO            5.8%
KDH                5.6%
------------------------
Most-Híd          3.9%
SMK                 3.1%
Dobrá voľba      1.7%
Socialisti.sk      1.3%
Vlasť                1.3%

(Nine parties in parliament, those would be some interesting coalition talks...)



In the politics-as-Wild-West news, we're at last inching closer to a resolution of the murder of journalist Ján Kuciak. The perpetrator has already been convicted earlier this year, and today Marián Kočner's fixer reached an agreement with the prosecutor about a lower sentence in exchange for, most likely, information needed to convict Kočner for having ordered the murder to silence Kuciak's investigation into his financial frauds. More than that, it turns out that the murder was a kind of a last-ditch solution after Kočner's people failed to find any kompromat on Kuciak, and Kočner was plotting an escape from jail with the help of mafia.

An interesting sidenote - the effort to find something on Kuciak was led by Peter Tóth, a liberal anti-Mečiar journalist in the 1990s who was close to the "parallel secret service" - a group of ex-intelligence officers working to undermine Mečiar's misuse of Slovak intelligence services for political purposes. Understandably then, he had the experience and contacts to go after someone like that, but I'm still surprised that he did it. Money talks, I guess.

(For those just tuning in - Marián Kočner is a businessman very close - financially, politically and personally - to Smer and Robert Fico)



If you have any questions or are curious about something, ask away, guys!
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Estrella
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2019, 05:39:09 PM »

Presented without comment because seriously guys

Quote from: TASR
Bratislava, October 28 (TASR) – The ban on publishing relevant public opinion polls before elections in Slovakia has been extended from 14 days to 50 days, Parliament decided on Monday.

The provision will also concern the general election due in four months.

Several parliamentary parties complained about significant differences in results of public opinion polls, even those released in short succession.

“We believe that this law won’t restrict voters’ right to access to information, as it’s in fact been designed to protect voters from disinformation and purpose-built information,” reads a report accompanying the bill.
https://newsnow.tasr.sk/policy/14376/

Good news is that this will likely end up at the Constitutional Court, but still...
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Estrella
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« Reply #30 on: December 05, 2019, 11:40:25 AM »

So, Robert Fico seems to be in hot water - and surprisingly not because of his corruption (yet).

First things first, we have to go back to 2016, when Milan Mazurek, an MP for the neo-Nazi ĽSNS took part in a radio debate, where, among other things, he said:

Quote from: Milan Mazurek
...€150 million is going to be spent on houses for Gypsy communities, that is for people who have never done anything for our nation and our state, decided to live an asocial way of life and suck out our welfare system. We, who live a decent life and work, are snubbed by the state, while those asocials are given everything for free.

After failing to dissociate themselves from the comments, the radio station was fined €15,000 and Mazurek himself was indicted for a hate crime, which resulted in a string of trials and appeals that ended this September, when the Supreme Court ordered Mazurek to pay a €10,000 fine and kicked him out of Parliament.

Fico reacted to the verdict on Facebook thusly:

Quote from: Robert Fico
Milan Mazurek said what almost all of the nation thinks. If you execute someone for speaking the truth, you'll turn them into a national hero [...] Should the Supreme Court verdict be a precedent for what is a crime when talking about Roma, law enforcement could raid any pub in Slovakia and lock up every patron, including the dogs on the floor.

And just today, National Criminal Agency indicted Fico on the counts of defamation of a nation, race or belief, encouragement of racial or ethnic hatred and agreeing with a crime.

Conversely, the PM Peter Pellegrini has condemned Fico and stated that the verdict is "a serious warning not to spread hate", and even the fricking SNS (a party whose previous leader said that "for the Gypsies, we need a big whip and a small yard") said they're "surprised and shocked" and that "any support for extremism is dangerous for the society."

I definitely didn't expect our justice system to show this much teeth dealing with hate, but still, good job!
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Estrella
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« Reply #31 on: December 06, 2019, 10:55:03 AM »

An indictment a day keeps the bribes away

NAKA (the National Criminal Agency) is fast becoming the four-letter word most feared by Slovak politicians, as a former president (2014-2019) and Za Ľudí leader Andrej Kiska was indicted of creative accounting with his 2014 campaign money that resulted in the government being skirted of €155k in taxes.

As for the trial of entrepreneur-cum-thug Marián Kočner, Vladimír Sklenka, a district judge in Bratislava, was forced to resign after news broke that he and Kočner exchanged over 8000 text messages and tried to rig the case selection system so that Sklenka will end up judging Kočner's case. Sklenka also used to be a bodyguard and personal assistant to (notoriously corrupt) Štefan Harabin, so it won't be a huge surprise if it turns out that there are some connections there.


Oh, and let's not forget that Smer has a new logo. They're literally calling themselves New Labour New Smer Cheesy

In the non-political news, a gas explosion in a block of flats in Prešov has resulted in 5 deaths (so far) and 40 injured Sad
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Estrella
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« Reply #32 on: December 13, 2019, 07:28:43 AM »

So, a couple of days ago, Smer released this ad, starring Robert F (despite appearances, he's still the party's líder máximo) as a teacher scolding unruly and lying children playing the leaders of opposition parties:

https://youtu.be/owDQLb-TpCM

Now, take a look at this Likud ad from 2015:

https://youtu.be/YRWFVE2RRq4

If you think that the two ads are pretty similar, you're not the only one, because Shaviv Strategy and Campaigns, the producers of the Bibi ad, are apparently considering suing Smer for copyright infringement Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Estrella
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« Reply #33 on: December 27, 2019, 06:42:04 PM »

The official date of the election is set for Saturday, February 29, 2020, in just over two months. Despite that, there is hardly any campaigning at all except a few billboards - presumably everyone is waiting for Christmas to blow over and people to start paying attention.

(Out of curiosity, I checked when was the last time a country held elections on a leap day: there was the first round of legislatives in France in 1852, and the state election in Hamburg in 2004)

A new poll has been released. Margins of error on polls here are usually quite big, and there tend to be wild swings from one poll to another, but look at this: seven parties within ±2% of the threshold!


I'm afraid there isn't any voting compass or anything to guide those who are interested to which party is the best fit for you (much less one in English), but feel free to take this horrible flowchart I made, featuring all 25 parties standing. Right click for an actually readable version.
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Estrella
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« Reply #34 on: January 21, 2020, 04:30:57 PM »

With less than six weeks left,  the election campaign is ... well, not heating up at all. Quite understandable when you consider that with such a wildly unstable party system, there's no such thing as a 'base' that could raise money for ads.

Something else is happening, though: the saga of the Kuciak murder is kinda sorta getting ahead. The people who actually carried out the murder have been caught long ago, the focus now is on the tangled web of connections behind the conspiracy. The trial has been going on for a week now, and this is what we know (with a short recap for those just tuning in):
- The Smer-connected mafioso-in-chief Marián Kočner has definitely ordered the killing of Kuciak
- Slovakia's second richest man and Kočner's associate Jaroslav Haščák (again close to the Party That Shall Not Be Named) testified against Kočner and so did the ex-secret agent Peter Tóth
- Kočner's personal friend and son of the owner of a big private security company, Norbert Bödör (also connected to a certain political party, no you don't get a point for guessing it's Smer) denied everything.

You know that there are those crazy conspiracy theorists rambling about how all the high-ranking white-collar criminals, pedophiles etc. are connected by the Illuminati or whatever? Hilariously enough, that seems to be somewhat...well, not quite so crazy right now. A couple of years ago, Čistý deň, a drug addiction centre (funnily enough located in my hometown) was embroiled in a teen sexual abuse scandal. And just yesterday, it was discovered that Zuzana Tománková, the centre's director, went to a holiday in Croatia with (drum roll) ... Peter Tóth and Marián Kočner. She informed them about the "situation" in Čistý deň and Kočner, in turn, ranted about how he "just needs to get rid of one journalist and there'll be peace." Anyway, the way things are going now, I won't be surprised if we'll be making memes about how Jeffrey Kočner didn't kill himself in a couple of weeks :/

(Fun fact: for the past couple of months, we've been getting many of this information from Kočner's encrypted text messages, which means that even an 80 years old grandma who doesn't know how to switch on a computer has heard about Threema)

And let's not forget today's special - two top cats in legal trouble for the price of one! Dobroslav Trnka, the former prosecutor-general (2004-2011) is being prosecuted for embezzling money from Tipos, the state lottery monopoly.

(Another fun fact: when Trnka left office in 2011, the Parliament elected his successor, whom the President refused to appoint, resulting in a Slovakia not having a prosecutor-general for the next 28 months.)
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Estrella
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« Reply #35 on: January 21, 2020, 04:47:05 PM »

Oh, and there's also a new poll:

Smer 17%
ĽSNS 11%
PS-Spolu 10%
Za ľudí 10%
OĽaNO 8%
Sme rodina 8%
SaS 7%
SNS 6%
KDH 5%
Most-Híd 4%
Dobrá voľba 3%
MKS 3%
Vlasť 2%

= Liberal-conservatives (PS-S, ZĽ, OĽaNO, SaS, KDH, DV) 43%
= Far-right (ĽSNS, SR, SNS, Vlasť) 27%
= Smer 20%
= Hungarians (Most, MKS) 7%

For the lolz: In case you're worried about Kočner being bored in jail, don't be: he can make use of his masterful cooking skills (when it comes to omelettes, at least), as shown by a teen version of him on a 1982 edition of Young Pioneer's Swallow on the hilariously stilted Czechoslovak state TV.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #36 on: January 21, 2020, 05:32:50 PM »

Are DV positioning themselves as a centre-right party? I assumed they'd go for a sort of 'we're Smer but nice' approach.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #37 on: January 21, 2020, 05:46:28 PM »

Seems very fragmented, so what is the most likely coalition or is this one like Belgium that could take months to find out who forms government.  Or could it be like Israel and Spain where they need second or even third elections to resolved?
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Estrella
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« Reply #38 on: January 21, 2020, 06:22:02 PM »

Are DV positioning themselves as a centre-right party? I assumed they'd go for a sort of 'we're Smer but nice' approach.

When they started I assumed that as well, but they don't seem to have any real policies besides non-ideological fluff (more €s for hospitals, less corruption etc). They are definitely anti-Smer in its current form, so I put them together with other anti-Smer parties.

Seems very fragmented, so what is the most likely coalition or is this one like Belgium that could take months to find out who forms government.  Or could it be like Israel and Spain where they need second or even third elections to resolved?

No idea Ż\_(ツ)_/Ż Keep in mind, this is Eastern Europe and thirst for power will trump everything, so there will be some kind of agreements without needing another election. If the push comes to shove, Smer could very well agree to a minority coalition supported by ĽSNS - they've pondered about that option before.
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« Reply #39 on: January 22, 2020, 01:26:40 PM »

Can you tell me about Dobrá Voľba? There’s no wiki link and I don’t see any time you mentioned them beforehand.
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Paul Weller
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« Reply #40 on: January 24, 2020, 04:05:56 PM »

Pretty dire options for a principled leftist. How do you, Estrella, plan on voting? Also, is there much of a difference between PS-SPOLU and Za Ľudí, and are they likely to be allies or coalition partners?
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bigic
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« Reply #41 on: January 24, 2020, 05:34:49 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2020, 05:38:37 PM by bigic »

As for PS-Spolu and Za L'udi, they signed a non-aggression pact which AFAIK also includes SaS and KDH, so cooperation already exists. The pact also contains a pledge to not co-operate with Smer, SNS and L'SNS.
As for ideological differences between PS-Spolu and Za L'udi, I don't really know, but I don't think there are many of them. Estrella should know more.
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Estrella
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« Reply #42 on: January 25, 2020, 12:02:48 AM »

Can you tell me about Dobrá Voľba? There’s no wiki link and I don’t see any time you mentioned them beforehand.

A splinter off Smer, led by ex-Health Minister Tomáš Drucker. The "platform" on their website says literally nothing (healthcare good! corruption bad! economic growth good! tax evasion bad!), but they don't seem to have inherited any of Smer's nationalist/socon nastiness.

Pretty dire options for a principled leftist. How do you, Estrella, plan on voting? Also, is there much of a difference between PS-SPOLU and Za Ľudí, and are they likely to be allies or coalition partners?

If Greens or Socialists had any chance of getting over the threshold, I could consider voting for them, but right now it looks like I'll go PS-Spolu.

The clearest difference between the two is on social issues, where PS-Spolu is rather progressive (secular, pro-LGBT etc.) while Za ľudí doesn't want to talk about them. Also, PS-Spolu has many big personalities but Za ľudí is bankrolled by Kiska who unquestionably runs the show (though he's not the only public face of the party).



Anyway, the Minister of Environment, László Sólymos, resigned yesterday after this happened: he and his brother got drunk as hell, went to a Chinese restaurant to go to the toilet, the owner told them to go away, the brother got angry and smashed the restaurant's glass door, the two refused to pay for the damage and started yelling at the owner and his son, telling them to "go back to China."

Despite this, Sólymos is staying on as no. 3 on the Most-Híd list, which I am sure will dramatically improve the party's image. [something something joke country]
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rob in cal
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« Reply #43 on: January 25, 2020, 02:21:06 PM »

  Closer to the election will there be some of the electorate deserting their first choice party if they think they don't have a good chance passing the 5% threshold? Right now it looks like alot of parties are right near it.  Would a Vlast voter go to LNS, a DV voter go back to Smer or the left parties, and what about the Hungarian party supporters, who might end up dividing themselves out of parliament altogether?
Also, what is the big difference between LSNS and SNS? Do they share the same electorate base?
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Estrella
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« Reply #44 on: January 28, 2020, 07:19:58 PM »

  Closer to the election will there be some of the electorate deserting their first choice party if they think they don't have a good chance passing the 5% threshold? Right now it looks like alot of parties are right near it.  Would a Vlast voter go to LNS, a DV voter go back to Smer or the left parties, and what about the Hungarian party supporters, who might end up dividing themselves out of parliament altogether?
Also, what is the big difference between LSNS and SNS? Do they share the same electorate base?

No one knows, because:
1. The polls universally suck
2. Maybe it's just a consequence of 1., but there isn't such thing as tactical voting. Case in point, in 2016 it looked like #Sieť ends up as the leading opposition party and SaS might fall under the threshold. Yet, on election day SaS came second and #Sieť just barely squeaked in.

There's not much data on this, but ĽSNS does the best among young people, while SNS is just Smer on steroids these days (they're surprisingly left wing economically), so they probably share Smer's older, rural base.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #45 on: January 29, 2020, 05:42:08 AM »

Wait there have been talls of Smer-L'SNS cooperation? Aren't they literal nazis?

How and why?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #46 on: January 29, 2020, 07:51:56 AM »

Wait there have been talls of Smer-L'SNS cooperation? Aren't they literal nazis?

How and why?


I am amazed that people are actually shocked with that.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #47 on: February 05, 2020, 02:49:04 PM »

Wait there have been talls of Smer-L'SNS cooperation? Aren't they literal nazis?

How and why?
They are two sns the sns in government is ur typical national populist party L sns are the nazis it.
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Estrella
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« Reply #48 on: February 06, 2020, 01:14:19 AM »

Wait there have been talls of Smer-L'SNS cooperation? Aren't they literal nazis?

How and why?
They are two sns the sns in government is ur typical national populist party L sns are the nazis it.

Indeed there are, but Fico is seemingly open to cooperation with ĽSNS (the nazis), maybe even a confidence and supply deal to get a majority...

...which is understandable, but also completely surreal because, as I found out just this morning, Fico is really angry about prosecution of Ľuboš Blaha (a Chavista Smer hack) for this photo.

Toss a coin: cry or laugh about this? Cheesy
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Estrella
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« Reply #49 on: February 09, 2020, 04:11:42 PM »

If any of you feel the pressing need to declare your endorsement for political parties in foreign countries, you can take a quiz at volbydoparlamentu.sk.  It's Slovak only, but Google Translate does decently. Some questions that might need clarification:

Do you agree with the imposition of penalties on producers if double quality food is shown? - There have been some scandals about revelations that multinationals often sell goods of the same brand and with same packaging in both Western and Eastern Europe, but the goods sold in the East are lower quality than the ones in the West. This is a pet issue especially for Smer, who have tried to push through European legislation to ban this practice.

Do you agree with the cancellation of meal cards (gastro cards)? - By law, employers are obliged to pay for their employees' lunches, either by providing food in the company canteen, or by giving them special coupons to buy it elsewhere.

Do you agree with the abolition of pension ceilings? - Do you want to lift the cap on retirement age?

Are you in favor of the public election of public officials elected by MEPs? - This has nothing to do with MEPs, it's asking if you think positions elected by the parliament (Constitutional Court judges, prosecutor general, ...) should be elected directly.

Do you agree to the abolition of one constituency for parliamentary elections? - Currently, the parliament is elected in a single nationwide constituency, like in Netherlands or Israel.

Do you agree that judges should undergo security screening? - Do you want judges to take a background check to uncover any ties with criminals, mafia, etc.?

Do you agree that the Ministry of the Interior should filter out and misinform on the Internet? - *filter out misinformation

Do you agree to order the exact time for a fee from outpatient doctors? - Should patients be able to pay to see a doctor at a particular date and time, instead of coming to the hospital and waiting for their turn?

Do you agree with the nationalization (privatization) of hospitals? - *denationalization

Do you agree with the labeling of municipalities in the languages ​​of national minorities (the labeling currently applies to municipalities where the proportion of national minorities exceeds 20%)? - Should places with a >20% ethnic minority have bilingual place name signs, like this?

Do you agree with the current version of the Dual Citizenship Act? - After Hungary promised to give out passports to Hungarians abroad, Slovakia banned dual citizenship.

Do you agree with strengthening the autonomy of the regions of southern Slovakia? - ie. regions with a Hungarian majority.



Here's a graph of all opinion polls since just before the last election, from politico.eu. Zoom in and you'll see an OĽANO surge in the past couple of weeks, to 10% and third place.



(Not that it's amazingly useful, because we have, what, four parties with some shade of green as their color. That's as bad as Ireland, and we don't even have green in our flag!)
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