Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[Former President tack50]

* I'm still impressed by the absurdity of the Fico III cabinet. Coalition negotiations took all of 18 days and it consisted of:
- Smer
- SNS, a party whose ex-leader (until 2013) was fond of drunk rants about how Hungarians are "a tumor on the body of Slovak nation"
- Most-Híd, a party that whose voter base consited of some anti-Fico urbanites, but mostly ethnic Hungarians
- #Sieť, a party led by a guy who proclaimed himself the leader of anti-Fico opposition

I definitely wonder how a party led by an anti-Hungarian leader in the near past; was able to join a government with the ethnic Hungarian party lol

[Estrella]

* I'm still impressed by the absurdity of the Fico III cabinet. Coalition negotiations took all of 18 days and it consisted of:
- Smer
- SNS, a party whose ex-leader (until 2013) was fond of drunk rants about how Hungarians are "a tumor on the body of Slovak nation"
- Most-Híd, a party that whose voter base consited of some anti-Fico urbanites, but mostly ethnic Hungarians
- #Sieť, a party led by a guy who proclaimed himself the leader of anti-Fico opposition

I definitely wonder how a party led by an anti-Hungarian leader in the near past; was able to join a government with the ethnic Hungarian party lol

It's the globalization of populism. The schtick of Hungarian far-right used to be irredentism and reversing Trianon; similarly, the schtick of Slovak far-right used to be yelling about getting in tanks and destroying Budapest.

And then, things changed. The first time I noticed the new SNS leader Andrej Danko was a press conference his party (then out of parliament) held like a week after Charlie Hebdo, where he gave a very impassioned speech about how the Slovak Association of Muslims bought a lot somewhere in Bratislava and they allegedly want to build a mosque there and THIS MUST BE PREVENTED AT ALL COSTS!1!!1! Similarly, Viktor became less interested in Felvidék and more in building border fences to stop the scary browns.

Danko, 2012: "I'd send Slovak supporters of Orbán to jail!"
Danko, 2019: "I envy Viktor Orbán's political power."
 
Those changes laid the ground for that coalition. Most-Híd are basically normal conservatives, but they still governed together because
1. this was the least impractical coalition and
2. power wears out those who do not have it.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

* I'm still impressed by the absurdity of the Fico III cabinet. Coalition negotiations took all of 18 days and it consisted of:
- Smer
- SNS, a party whose ex-leader (until 2013) was fond of drunk rants about how Hungarians are "a tumor on the body of Slovak nation"
- Most-Híd, a party that whose voter base consited of some anti-Fico urbanites, but mostly ethnic Hungarians
- #Sieť, a party led by a guy who proclaimed himself the leader of anti-Fico opposition

I definitely wonder how a party led by an anti-Hungarian leader in the near past; was able to join a government with the ethnic Hungarian party lol

It's the globalization of populism. The schtick of Hungarian far-right used to be irredentism and reversing Trianon; similarly, the schtick of Slovak far-right used to be yelling about getting in tanks and destroying Budapest.

And then, things changed. The first time I noticed the new SNS leader Andrej Danko was a press conference his party (then out of parliament) held like a week after Charlie Hebdo, where he gave a very impassioned speech about how the Slovak Association of Muslims bought a lot somewhere in Bratislava and they allegedly want to build a mosque there and THIS MUST BE PREVENTED AT ALL COSTS!1!!1! Similarly, Viktor became less interested in Felvidék and more in building border fences to stop the scary browns.

Danko, 2012: "I'd send Slovak supporters of Orbán to jail!"
Danko, 2019: "I envy Viktor Orbán's political power."

Sad!

[Estrella]

In reaction to ĽSNS leader Marian Kotleba forcing through a change to party statutes that entrenched his position and made him basically unremovable, five MPs and one MEP left the party. Last year, several MPs left ĽSNS after breaking off KDH due to being insufficiently theocratic, running on ĽSNS lists in 2020 and discovering that Nazism might not be compatible with Christian values. This means that ĽSNS lost almost half their caucus - they're down to 9 MPs from 17 at the start of the legislature.

Because only parties that received representation in the last election can create parliamentary groups, these defectors joined the growing group of non-inscrits that now numbers 20 of 150 MPs. And there are going to be more of them - when the previous parliament dissolved, 36 (!) MPs were non-inscrits - one quarter of legislators switched parties during the term, which must be some kind of record.

[Astatine]

In reaction to ĽSNS leader Marian Kotleba forcing through a change to party statutes that entrenched his position and made him basically unremovable, five MPs and one MEP left the party. Last year, several MPs left ĽSNS after breaking off KDH due to being insufficiently theocratic, running on ĽSNS lists in 2020 and discovering that Nazism might not be compatible with Christian values. This means that ĽSNS lost almost half their caucus - they're down to 9 MPs from 17 at the start of the legislature.

Because only parties that received representation in the last election can create parliamentary groups, these defectors joined the growing group of non-inscrits that now numbers 20 of 150 MPs. And there are going to be more of them - when the previous parliament dissolved, 36 (!) MPs were non-inscrits - one quarter of legislators switched parties during the term, which must be some kind of record.

Didn't all 11 members of SDKÚ-DS leave their party eventually post 2012, and same with #siet following the 2016 elections?
I thought the self-destruction of the Austrian BZÖ was something, but Slovakia tops its Southwestern neighbor once again.

[Estrella]

In reaction to ĽSNS leader Marian Kotleba forcing through a change to party statutes that entrenched his position and made him basically unremovable, five MPs and one MEP left the party. Last year, several MPs left ĽSNS after breaking off KDH due to being insufficiently theocratic, running on ĽSNS lists in 2020 and discovering that Nazism might not be compatible with Christian values. This means that ĽSNS lost almost half their caucus - they're down to 9 MPs from 17 at the start of the legislature.

Because only parties that received representation in the last election can create parliamentary groups, these defectors joined the growing group of non-inscrits that now numbers 20 of 150 MPs. And there are going to be more of them - when the previous parliament dissolved, 36 (!) MPs were non-inscrits - one quarter of legislators switched parties during the term, which must be some kind of record.

Didn't all 11 members of SDKÚ-DS leave their party eventually post 2012, and same with #siet following the 2016 elections?
I thought the self-destruction of the Austrian BZÖ was something, but Slovakia tops its Southwestern neighbor once again.

Not all members - "only" 10 out of 11 left, the leader Pavol Frešo stayed on until the bitter lolworthy end (0.27%). As for Sieť, 3 out of 10 MPs left immediately after they entered that coalition. Half a year later, all but one of the remaining MPs defected to Most-Híd* and even the last of the Mohicans soon left to become an independent, citing "lethargy within the party". Some members then formed the STUNNINGLY SUCCESFUL Slovak Conservative Party (EP 2019: 603 votes).

* Who then went on to win 2.1%, so great job guys!

[Estrella]

That Instagram account I linked to with the Danko 2012/2019 stuff does God's work in curating all the wondrous bullshxt our politicians say. It's all in Slovak, obviously, which is a downer if you guys want to understand it.

One, however, does not need to speak the language to appreciate the beauty of the resignation press conference of Miroslav Jureňa, a HZDS politician and briefly Minister of Agriculture in Fico's first government:

_mooooooo

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In reaction to ĽSNS leader Marian Kotleba forcing through a change to party statutes that entrenched his position and made him basically unremovable, five MPs and one MEP left the party. Last year, several MPs left ĽSNS after breaking off KDH due to being insufficiently theocratic, running on ĽSNS lists in 2020 and discovering that Nazism might not be compatible with Christian values. This means that ĽSNS lost almost half their caucus - they're down to 9 MPs from 17 at the start of the legislature.

Because only parties that received representation in the last election can create parliamentary groups, these defectors joined the growing group of non-inscrits that now numbers 20 of 150 MPs. And there are going to be more of them - when the previous parliament dissolved, 36 (!) MPs were non-inscrits - one quarter of legislators switched parties during the term, which must be some kind of record.

Have Hlas still not managed to register as a party then?

[Estrella]

In reaction to ĽSNS leader Marian Kotleba forcing through a change to party statutes that entrenched his position and made him basically unremovable, five MPs and one MEP left the party. Last year, several MPs left ĽSNS after breaking off KDH due to being insufficiently theocratic, running on ĽSNS lists in 2020 and discovering that Nazism might not be compatible with Christian values. This means that ĽSNS lost almost half their caucus - they're down to 9 MPs from 17 at the start of the legislature.

Because only parties that received representation in the last election can create parliamentary groups, these defectors joined the growing group of non-inscrits that now numbers 20 of 150 MPs. And there are going to be more of them - when the previous parliament dissolved, 36 (!) MPs were non-inscrits - one quarter of legislators switched parties during the term, which must be some kind of record.

Have Hlas still not managed to register as a party then?

They have. It's just that the way it works is: in the last election, OĽaNO, Smer, Sme Rodina, ĽSNS, SaS and Za ľudí won seats, and only these parties have the right to create a parliamentary group (literally a poslanecký klub, club of MPs). If an MP wants to switch parties, they can join another group; if they don't want to be a member of an existing group (either because they want to be an indy or create a new party), they're officially a non-inscrit. Wikipedia will still say that Hlas has 11 MPs because, well, 11 MPs are members of Hlas. I think it originated as a half-assed attempt at a system like they have in Colombia or South Africa, where MPs can't switch parties.

This is what the National Council website says, translated:

MPs can create clubs according to the political party they were elected for. [...] If during the term of legislature an electoral coalition splits or political parties merge, their clubs will split or merge too.

So the only way a new group can be created is
1. two existing parties that already have groups merge
2. multiple parties that contested the election as a coalition part ways. Had PS-Spolu gotten a couple thousand more votes and entered parliament, they could, in theory, split into a PS group and a Spolu group.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

They have.

On that note, dare I ask how they are funding themselves?

[PSOL]

Wait, the Nazis are pagans or what?

[Estrella]

They have.

On that note, dare I ask how they are funding themselves?

Good question, and one I haven't been able to find an answer to. I'll be honest, I have no clue how party financing works here because it's a complete non-issue - I've never heard anybody talk about it. I guess it's because campaigns are so cheap, basically just some bilboards, youtube ads and that's it._{Also corruption for your party's benefit isn't worth it if it can fall apart at any moment and your colleagues grab the money and flee.}

[Estrella]

Wait, the Nazis are pagans or what?

I bet some of the particularly committed ones are, but I was just joking. Kotleba likes to talk about "Christian values" too, but he's concerned about, well, your typical Nazi issues. Štefan Kuffa, the guy who led the group that left the party, is a single-issue politician (muh abortion muh gays muh churches closing during lockdown).

[Estrella]

1. František Imrecze, former head of Financial Administration (= people in charge of collecting taxes) was arrested. He left his position in 2018 after a customs fraud scandal in which the state lost €300 million. Eight other people were also arrested, including Fin Admin's head of IT.

2. Arrest warrant was issued for Jozef Brhel, currently in hiding somewhere in the Carribean. He's an IT and energy businessman, and a former MP for Mečiar's HZDS. I'll let his (very well-sourced) Wikipedia article speak for itself:

In October 2005, the then-HZDS MP Jaroslav Jaduš stated that: "For people like [omitted for brevity] and Jozef Brhel, Smer was a backup investment in case HZDS didn't get into government. [...] Bohumil Hanzel, a co-founder of Smer said that he saw an agreement, verified by a notary, between Fico and a group of five businessmen that guaranteed them the first 25 places on Smer's list in the 2006 election.

3. SWAT raided a hotel in Bratislava where Brhel has his office. The hotel is owned by oligarch Juraj Široký, one of richest people in Slovakia, previously implicated but never convicted in several corruption cases.

4. Arrest warrant was also issued for Michal Suchoba, the owner of IT company Allexis. The company, mentioned in Paradise Papers, had contracts worth €33 million with the Financial Administration. Suchoba is currently in Abu Dhabi.

5. I'm not gonna go into details, this newspaper headline tells the whole story:

During an investigation of mafia within police, more than €1 million in cash was seized.

Did I mention that all of this came out today and it's only 1 pm?

[Wikipedia delenda est]

* I'm still impressed by the absurdity of the Fico III cabinet. Coalition negotiations took all of 18 days and it consisted of:
- Smer
- SNS, a party whose ex-leader (until 2013) was fond of drunk rants about how Hungarians are "a tumor on the body of Slovak nation"
- Most-Híd, a party that whose voter base consited of some anti-Fico urbanites, but mostly ethnic Hungarians
- #Sieť, a party led by a guy who proclaimed himself the leader of anti-Fico opposition

I definitely wonder how a party led by an anti-Hungarian leader in the near past; was able to join a government with the ethnic Hungarian party lol

It's the globalization of populism. The schtick of Hungarian far-right used to be irredentism and reversing Trianon; similarly, the schtick of Slovak far-right used to be yelling about getting in tanks and destroying Budapest.

And then, things changed. The first time I noticed the new SNS leader Andrej Danko was a press conference his party (then out of parliament) held like a week after Charlie Hebdo, where he gave a very impassioned speech about how the Slovak Association of Muslims bought a lot somewhere in Bratislava and they allegedly want to build a mosque there and THIS MUST BE PREVENTED AT ALL COSTS!1!!1! Similarly, Viktor became less interested in Felvidék and more in building border fences to stop the scary browns.

Danko, 2012: "I'd send Slovak supporters of Orbán to jail!"
Danko, 2019: "I envy Viktor Orbán's political power."
 
Those changes laid the ground for that coalition. Most-Híd are basically normal conservatives, but they still governed together because
1. this was the least impractical coalition and
2. power wears out those who do not have it.

In a way I'd say this change in the nature of European populism is a good thing. What tore Europe apart in the 20th century was nationalism that pitted Europeans against other Europeans, but with this sort of "pan-European nationalism" or "globalized populism" (what great oxymorons) there isn't really much risk of that happening again. As I see it, the possibility of another Great War is that great fear which underlays it all, the true raison d'être for the EU. Although it may suck for the temporary stability of the EU and the immigrant populations that that populist anger is now being directed at them, I can't see the great fear being realized anytime soon with this newfound populist unity.

I know you might say that the warmongering language used by Slota or whomever is just for show and the events he describes would never happen in "modern happy peaceful Europe ", but people were saying the exact same thing a hundred years ago. When language like that becomes normalized those ideas can filter into the mainstream; even if Slota himself didn't believe what he was saying I'm sure there were people and politicians who did.

[Estrella]

* I'm still impressed by the absurdity of the Fico III cabinet. Coalition negotiations took all of 18 days and it consisted of:
- Smer
- SNS, a party whose ex-leader (until 2013) was fond of drunk rants about how Hungarians are "a tumor on the body of Slovak nation"
- Most-Híd, a party that whose voter base consited of some anti-Fico urbanites, but mostly ethnic Hungarians
- #Sieť, a party led by a guy who proclaimed himself the leader of anti-Fico opposition

I definitely wonder how a party led by an anti-Hungarian leader in the near past; was able to join a government with the ethnic Hungarian party lol

It's the globalization of populism. The schtick of Hungarian far-right used to be irredentism and reversing Trianon; similarly, the schtick of Slovak far-right used to be yelling about getting in tanks and destroying Budapest.

And then, things changed. The first time I noticed the new SNS leader Andrej Danko was a press conference his party (then out of parliament) held like a week after Charlie Hebdo, where he gave a very impassioned speech about how the Slovak Association of Muslims bought a lot somewhere in Bratislava and they allegedly want to build a mosque there and THIS MUST BE PREVENTED AT ALL COSTS!1!!1! Similarly, Viktor became less interested in Felvidék and more in building border fences to stop the scary browns.

Danko, 2012: "I'd send Slovak supporters of Orbán to jail!"
Danko, 2019: "I envy Viktor Orbán's political power."
 
Those changes laid the ground for that coalition. Most-Híd are basically normal conservatives, but they still governed together because
1. this was the least impractical coalition and
2. power wears out those who do not have it.

In a way I'd say this change in the nature of European populism is a good thing. What tore Europe apart in the 20th century was nationalism that pitted Europeans against other Europeans, but with this sort of "pan-European nationalism" or "globalized populism" (what great oxymorons) there isn't really much risk of that happening again. As I see it, the possibility of another Great War is that great fear which underlays it all, the true raison d'être for the EU. Although it may suck for the temporary stability of the EU and the immigrant populations that that populist anger is now being directed at them, I can't see the great fear being realized anytime soon with this newfound populist unity.

I know you might say that the warmongering language used by Slota or whomever is just for show and the events he describes would never happen in "modern happy peaceful Europe ", but people were saying the exact same thing a hundred years ago. When language like that becomes normalized those ideas can filter into the mainstream; even if Slota himself didn't believe what he was saying I'm sure there were people and politicians who did.

The problem here is that the ideas of European unity as imagined by "liberals" and EU, versus those imagined by this new "globalized nationalism" have next to nothing in common. Remember, almost all of these parties are euroskeptic - and not in a "oh gee, if only Salvini/Panzergirl/Kaczyński was in charge, EU would be so great" way. They want to reduce EU's powers because they believe that each country should manage its own affairs. If, somehow, those people were in charge, things wouldn't change all that much - people elected on a radical, fundamentally-change-the-continent's-geopolitics radical platform almost always moderate when in power, and that applies to right-wingers too. But then we're back to how Slota wouldn't actually parade a tank division round Heroes' Square.

Of course, it's not like Poland and Hungary will actually leave EU on their own accord (and they won't be kicked out either). That would be a decision so moronic that even the densest nationalist wouldn't do it, not least because turning your country into a Venezuela even though it has an actual civil society is bad for your health. They're going to stay, but they're going to scream and yell about TAKING BACK CONTROL. It's irrelevant if they actually do take back control - it's going to weaken the EU anyway.

Fundamentally, nationalist populism in any form is incompatible with the idea of close European cooperation, random cranks notwithstanding. If you wanted that, your potential voters would need to consider themselves Europeans first and [nationality] second, and if there were any people like that - currently, there are none, none - they'd be liberal, metropolitan, Eurofederalist types, not retired steelworkers from Pas-de-Calais or small businessmen from Murcia.

Still, I agree that different nationalist movements in Europe have never agreed with each other as much as now. That's not as absurd as it seems, and it's perfectly compatible with Euroskepticism. Plenty of divorces happen because both partners agree that they're better off apart.

[Former President tack50]

Fundamentally, nationalist populism in any form is incompatible with the idea of close European cooperation, random cranks notwithstanding.

Fun fact: Those random cranks are one of the routine contenders for third place in Malta's EU elections

They even got a whopping 3.2% of the vote in 2019, which sounds like little but by Maltese standards is massive!

[Estrella]

Slovak Politics: Insanely Criminal, Criminally Insane - Episode 185454112

- Jaroslav Haščák, the richest man in Slovakia, currently in jail due to his role in the Gorilla scandal (tl;dr turns out basically everyone who served in Dzurinda I, Dzurinda II and Fico I governments is a criminal) offered to give his prison a "sponsorship gift" of up to €100k. The matter was, unsurprisingly, referred to prosecutors. _{For someone so utterly corrupt, he's pletty clueless about how to bribe properly}

- National Criminal Agency raided the HQ of a company belonging to former Smer (now Hlas) Minister of Economy, Peter Žiga.

- Monika Jankovská, a Smer politician and former Secretary of State at Ministry of Justice, in jail since last July, attempted to commit suicide by overdosing on sleeping pills. Unlike with Milan Lučanský, the attempt was unsuccesful.

[Estrella]

1. František Imrecze, former head of Financial Administration (= people in charge of collecting taxes) was arrested. He left his position in 2018 after a customs fraud scandal in which the state lost €300 million. Eight other people were also arrested, including Fin Admin's head of IT.

Well, looks like we know more about communication between Marian Kočner and Norbert Bödör. They talked about blackmailing Imrecze to get him to provide them with kompromat on the Prime Minister. I've read some of the transcripts and... I mean, it's honestly entertaining to read a convo that looks like straight outta a Bond villain's lair, but also Jesus Christ, it's not a great feeling to find out that a cabal of literal mafiosos tried to take control of your country's government and they almost succeeded. Read for yourself:

Kočner We have to finish Lipstein¹ this year
Bödör Yeah, 100%
Kočner Lipstein and the ski lift guy². The ski lift guy can't be let into the next election!
Kočner I'm gonna deal with Pčolinský³
Kočner And Matovič is almost done, we need to finish him
Kočner But it's starting to be late, that c*nt of his Remišová⁴ has grown up
Kočner No idea why it's taking so long with Matovič
Bödör I'm gonna tell you personally.
Kočner Ok. Hope you'll tell me something that will soothe my soul.
Bödör Don't think so. It's hard to work with FS⁵
Bödör We don't have the papers we need and I don't know what next.
Kočner So what if we grabbed Feri⁶ by the balls. For that money he's taking from there through a front.

1 Soon-to-be special prosecutor Daniel Lipšic
2 Presumably Boris Kollár
3 Former head of SIS Vladimír Pčolinský, currently in jail
4 Minister of Justice Veronika Remišová
5 Financial Administration
6 František Imrecze


This thing reminds me of a 90s scandal related to investigation of kidnapping of President's son. Context: when the intelligence agency came under control of Mečiar loyalist Ivan Lexa who started using them as his personal goon squad, a group of, let's say, morally principled agents created a so-called parallel secret service. Thanks to these whistleblowers, in 1996 the whole country could listen to a recording of a phone call between Lexa and Minister of Interior, talking about the lead investigator of the kidnapping. Today it's still remembered for Lexa's famous "keď ho kopneš do gúľ, dám ti pusu na čelo" - "if you kick him in the balls, I'll give you a kiss on the forehead".

Great to see that my country is as amazingly democratic as it was 25 years ago! -_-

[Estrella]

Oh, and as if that wasn't enough: Dobroslav Trnka (Prosecutor General, 2004-2011) is now being prosecuted himself. The reason is the Glance House* case - basically, a company that built a block of flats went bankrupt, an Trnka illegally enabled the building to be transferred to Kočner.

* Presumably to clean their name from that scandal, they renamed the place to Holubí dom ("House of Pigeons", after this incredibly annoying song)

[Estrella]

František Böhm, a former SIS secret agent, a pentito and key witness whose testimony led to the prosecution of police president Milan Lučanský, has committed suicide. Murder-suicide, actually; he shot his wife in the chest and them himself in the head. There's a small possibility - but a possibility nevertheless - that it might not be what it seems like at first sight, in which case... yikes

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Apparently a poll came out with L'SNS below the threshold. Are they having problems or is it just a blip?

[Estrella]

Apparently a poll came out with L'SNS below the threshold. Are they having problems or is it just a blip?

They are indeed having problems, it's the thing I mentioned upthread about how Kotleba's fascist (ha!) leadership style made half of their caucus leave. This is IIRC the first poll in years where they're under the threshold, but they've been polling pretty poorly lately anyway, and there are rumors that the defectors might create a new party. The ideal (and I'd say likely as well) outcome would be both parties failing to get in.

[Astatine]

Might be a random and dumb question, but considering that the Hungarian minority has no "formal" representation in Parliament - Generally speaking, is there any chance that the electoral law could be amended or so?

In Germany, Poland and Denmark, minority parties (for Sorbians and Danish in Germany, Germans in Poland and Germans in Denmark), are excepted from the 5 % threshold. In Croatia and Slovenia, minority representatives have a fixed number of MPs and in Hungary, there is an extra "parallel election" for minority representatives without a threshold (although the minority parties would still need to take the "natural" threshold).

[Estrella]

Might be a random and dumb question, but considering that the Hungarian minority has no "formal" representation in Parliament - Generally speaking, is there any chance that the electoral law could be amended or so?

In Germany, Poland and Denmark, minority parties (for Sorbians and Danish in Germany, Germans in Poland and Germans in Denmark), are excepted from the 5 % threshold. In Croatia and Slovenia, minority representatives have a fixed number of MPs and in Hungary, there is an extra "parallel election" for minority representatives without a threshold (although the minority parties would still need to take the "natural" threshold).

Not dumb at all But it's very unlikely. There's very little appetite for this kind of institutional minority representation. The reason why my region has such a bizarre shape, grouping together places that have next to nothing in common, is that it's a gerrymander so that no region has a Hungarian majority. Besides, it wasn't needed until now; this is the first time a Hungarian party hasn't been represented in parliament, and even then SMK and Most won 6% together, enough to get in, theoretically. There has been a decline in voting for ethnic parties from a peak of almost 12% for SMK in 2006, probably explained by a corresponding decline in anti-Hungarian bigotry among Slovaks.