Most likely Republican nominee (August 2019)

[Orser67]

I made a poll in 2017 that has seen some recent activity, but I think now would be an interesting time to re-evaluate, and I like having that poll/thread as an historical artifact of what we thought in late 2017/early 2018.

So:

a)Who is most likely to win the 2024 Republican nomination?
b)Whose stock has most improved since January 2018?
c)Who should be in the poll that I didn't list?

[lfromnj]

How can a poll as of August 2019 not include Hawley?

[Brother Jonathan]

a) it's too early to tell at all what the party will even look like in 2024. So much depends on what happens with Trump. That being said Hawley seems like he may be best able to unite the old establishment while holding onto some of the Trump voters.
b) he's overrated, but DeSantis is probably the person who has seen the most improvement since 2018.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Dan Crenshaw should probably be on the list.

[Grassroots]

Add Crenshaw and Hawley.

I voted DeSantis.

[S019]

Tom Cotton

[LiberalDem19]

I voted someone else because I just don't know where they decide to go post-Trump. If they go all in on winning back Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, etc. they'll go with Haley or Rubio. Moderate on immigration, focus more on national security and the economy. The danger there is they're both socially conservative which might turn off non-religious Western voters. If they chart their current path, it'll be Pence. The danger there is union voters in the Upper Midwest honestly wouldn't like Pence's evangelical side.

So we don't really know, and probably won't until closer to 2024.

[RINO Tom]

How can a poll as of August 2019 not include Hawley?

Is he like polling super well?  Haven’t been following for my own sanity.

[Grassroots]

How can a poll as of August 2019 not include Hawley?

Is he like polling super well?  Haven’t been following for my own sanity.

He's a rising star in the party and has been gaining a lot of attention for being a big fighter for the populist wing of the party.

[RINO Tom]

How can a poll as of August 2019 not include Hawley?

Is he like polling super well?  Haven’t been following for my own sanity.

He's a rising star in the party and has been gaining a lot of attention for being a big fighter for the populist wing of the party.

Gotcha, hope he crashes and burns.

[Grassroots]

How can a poll as of August 2019 not include Hawley?

Is he like polling super well?  Haven’t been following for my own sanity.

He's a rising star in the party and has been gaining a lot of attention for being a big fighter for the populist wing of the party.

Gotcha, hope he crashes and burns.

I hope he succeeds victoriously.

[SuperCow]

Dan Crenshaw should probably be on the list.

Crenshaw might be thinking of running for senate or governor by that point, but not president.

[Gracile]

DeSantis or Hawley.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Pence if Trump is popular, otherwise probably DeSantis. It will be a close election.

[Kevinstat]

Pence if Trump is popular, otherwise probably DeSantis. It will be a close election.

What about Trump himself, if he loses in 2016 in a close race but still has his base?  We're due for another Grover Cleveland attempt (note the emphasis on the word "attempt").

[Orser67]

Added Crenshaw and Hawley by request

[Grassroots]

Ander Crenshaw?

You think we are talking about Ander Crenshaw?

Maybe you shouldn't be doing these polls.

[Orser67]

Ander Crenshaw?

You think we are talking about Ander Crenshaw?

Maybe you shouldn't be doing these polls.

Obviously I got the name confused. Given that the two "someone else" options have a collective four votes, I would say I'm doing ok with this poll.

And frankly, I don't see either Hawley or Crenshaw being worthy of being on this list yet. Both were almost completely unknown at the national level prior to about a year ago. Let's see them rack up some real accomplishments, or at least show some enduring popularity, before speaking of them as 2024 presidential candidates. I would easily take e.g. DeSantis, who won a very tough race in a major swing state, over either of them.

[Suburbia]

Probably Hawley

DeSantis has a Quayle comparison

[Person Man]

Probably Hawley

DeSantis has a Quayle comparison

I don't know. He has proven he's very conservative but can "tone it down a little". If Pence doesn't get it, he probably does but he will probably  it up the way Rubio did.

If Trump wins, Pence probably gets it unless it goes the way it did with Bush and after everybody got what they can from him and the entire Trump machine is left DOA after the 2022 election.

If the Trump machine is live and kickin' in 2024, Pence gets it. It's as easy as that. Pence doesn't have family or health issues (yet) that would stop him. If Pence doesn't want it, I can see DeSantis, Scott, and Hawley being in the top 3. My money would be on DeSantis.

If Trump get's W'd and all the sudden all of the problems that the "Trump charm" has kept at bay finally show up and he's in the 20s. I think they will be looking at the "next in line" between Rubio and Cruz.

Same if Trump loses. Maybe it would also be open between Haley, Cotton, Cruz, and Rubio.

[President Johnson]

I have a feeling it's someone completely off the radar yet.

[Skunk]

Couldn't tell you. All I know is that they'll either be a racist, dumbass, and/or a criminal. Most likely some combination of the three.

[MarkD]

I think the GOP will go with an appearance of political correctness and nominate Nikki Haley.

[Grassroots]

Couldn't tell you. All I know is that they'll either be a racist, dumbass, and/or a criminal. Most likely some combination of the three.

Could say the same about any given D primary field.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pence, probably.