KY-Clarity Campaign Labs (D): Beshear +9, Dems up in other races

[DrScholl]

I don't know why people still think the 50% rule is relevant, because time and time again candidates who have not hit 50% in polling have gone on to win.

Either you don't know (or don't care) about polling history in Kentucky. In some other regions/states, not the case, but here you'd have to be in denial to ignore the obvious bias. Conway was stuck getting between  42 and 45% in most polls of the race, and what did he end up with? 44% The fact that this is a Democratic internal and he's at 48% should tell us 1) this has the potential to be somewhat of a close race, maybe closer than last time... but 2) we definitely cannot say he is 'favored to win' yet based on the numbers.

Oh good grief, I did not say he was guaranteed to win, but if that's what you saw God bless your wonderful imagination. Bevin isn't exactly popular right now so despite the state's partisan lean he could lose. If I was a candidate I would prefer to to be Beshear rather than Bevin.

[Politician]

I don't know why people still think the 50% rule is relevant, because time and time again candidates who have not hit 50% in polling have gone on to win.

Either you don't know (or don't care) about polling history in Kentucky. In some other regions/states, not the case, but here you'd have to be in denial to ignore the obvious bias. Conway was stuck getting between  42 and 45% in most polls of the race, and what did he end up with? 44% The fact that this is a Democratic internal and he's at 48% should tell us 1) this has the potential to be somewhat of a close race, maybe closer than last time... but 2) we definitely cannot say he is 'favored to win' yet based on the numbers.

Except there's a Libertarian in the race, who is taking 5% in the poll, so Beshear can win with a plurality.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don't know why people still think the 50% rule is relevant, because time and time again candidates who have not hit 50% in polling have gone on to win.

Either you don't know (or don't care) about polling history in Kentucky. In some other regions/states, not the case, but here you'd have to be in denial to ignore the obvious bias. Conway was stuck getting between  42 and 45% in most polls of the race, and what did he end up with? 44% The fact that this is a Democratic internal and he's at 48% should tell us 1) this has the potential to be somewhat of a close race, maybe closer than last time... but 2) we definitely cannot say he is 'favored to win' yet based on the numbers.

Except there's a Libertarian in the race, who is taking 5% in the poll, so Beshear can win with a plurality.

I think we’d all be ecstatic if Beshear pulled off a miracle win. But after getting burned so many times in Kentucky over the past decade, it’s kind of hard not to be extremely skeptical of rosy polls when it seems to happen every cycle

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In almost every other country, polls are used to ensure accuracy of the election results. If the results are far off from the polls, it brings the election system under scrutiny. Why is it that the opposite holds true here?

What's the point of having polls if we just throw them out if the election results go the other way?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

In almost every other country, polls are used to ensure accuracy of the election results. If the results are far off from the polls, it brings the election system under scrutiny. Why is it that the opposite holds true here?

What's the point of having polls if we just throw them out if the election results go the other way?

Are you seriously implying that elections in KY are stolen when Democrats control the elections office?

[Farmlands]

In almost every other country, polls are used to ensure accuracy of the election results. If the results are far off from the polls, it brings the election system under scrutiny. Why is it that the opposite holds true here?

What's the point of having polls if we just throw them out if the election results go the other way?

If there is no evidence of voter fraud found by professionals and unbiased observers, then obviously it was the polls that were wrong, oversampling perhaps... This is how it happens in other countries as well (am European). Assuming there was rigging because you don't see how the result could have happened is very Trumpian.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If there is no evidence of voter fraud found by professionals and unbiased observers, then obviously it was the polls that were wrong, oversampling perhaps... This is how it happens in other countries as well (am European). Assuming there was rigging because you don't see how the result could have happened is very Trumpian.

So pointing out that the "election" was 15 points off from every single poll is "Trumpian." Stupendous!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll and LA polls aren't accurate, JBE will likely face a runoff and Beshear has pulled even with Bevin, but I rather be Beshear in this race

[Farmlands]

If there is no evidence of voter fraud found by professionals and unbiased observers, then obviously it was the polls that were wrong, oversampling perhaps... This is how it happens in other countries as well (am European). Assuming there was rigging because you don't see how the result could have happened is very Trumpian.

So pointing out that the "election" was 15 points off from every single poll is "Trumpian." Stupendous!

Putting a fair election in quotation marks certainly is. And sure then, I pronounce that Sanders stole the Michigan primary from Hillary Clinton, poll basis, no proof needed. IceSpear was right about D-KY avatars.

[Alben Barkley]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

Besher can win in November  and atlas will still find a way to declare Bevin the winner.

This is about all I have left to say on the issue. So many people here who THINK they aren’t ignorant about Kentucky politics and polling because they circlejerk about Conway — who was never up by this much — are just proving how ignorant they really are.

[IceSpear]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

Besher can win in November  and atlas will still find a way to declare Bevin the winner.

This is about all I have left to say on the issue. So many people here who THINK they aren’t ignorant about Kentucky politics and polling because they circlejerk about Conway — who was never up by this much — are just proving how ignorant they really are.

Whoops.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We should relax and wait til Emerson or Gravis polls the three races: which showed Biden, correctly only 51/49 ahead of Trump