Maricopa County numbers are devastating....
"The poll shows a dangerous trend for McSally, who now trails Kelly by 9 percentage points in Maricopa County, home to about 3 in 5 Arizona voters. In the group's last poll, McSally trailed Kelly in Maricopa by 5 points."Although we started to observe interesting patterns in Independent / Republican Voter realignment in Metro-Phoenix in '16 for Federal Elections, there weren't really enough data points to run off of for historical context in a fast growing Metro Area, where historically the 'Pub suburbs (Including significantly Republican Upper-Income Anglo regions of the City of Phoenix
We first observed this phenomenon in the Trump era in the 4/24/18 GE in AZ CD-08.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6177883#msg6177883Initially the argument could have been made (As it was) that this was simply an aberration because DEM and Leaners TO % was Higher than expected....
Factually, the swings we saw in heavily 'PUB Upper-Income Anglo and Sheriff Joe districts was much higher than anyone may have anticipated.
The '18 AZ-DEM results reinforced the trend, excepting the AZ-GOV numbers....
This reminds me of trends we have seen before in various Metro areas in the US over the decades, where essentially the voting patterns of the 'burbs start to align more closely with the voting patterns of the major Cities within the Metro areas....
We can look for example at the collapse of 'PUB PRES voting support in the NorCal Bay area in '88, that foreshadowed a massive shift in the 2nd largest Metro area in California....
We can look for example at the collapse of 'PUB PRES voting support in Metro-Portland Oregon in '08, which foreshadowed a massive shift in a Metro area of 45% of State Voters.
We can look at recent changes in voting patterns in places such as Columbus, Ohio and Atlanta, Georgia.
We can look at the massive collapse of the 'PUB brand in NJ and VA.
To go back to Metro Phoenix....
We have seen previous patterns where large Metro areas shift dramatically, not because of shifts in support and voter turnout among Minority Voting blocs, but perhaps more significantly, a massive collapse of "White/Anglo suburban voters" that identify more with the politics and the communities of their Metro areas than Party Affiliation or social self-identification....
As I have mentioned on other threads regarding Metro Phoenix, most of the major movements towards the Democratic Party have occurred not because of increased Latino Population and RV/LV turnout, but rather massive swings among traditionally Republican constituencies, combined with a shift of the retiree population to Arizona....
Arizona will be a "Ground Zero" target for both political parties for the US-SEN seat....
We will hear both candidates address issues that are hot topics for DEMs /PUBs alike where Medical Insurance for All, Immigration Policy, along with other issues such as Climate Change, Criminal Justice Reform (Legalize/Decrim Herb), Resource Management, Transportation Issues, Educational Issues, etc.... will likely be front and center of the AZ-SEN campaign.
Foreign Policy & Free Trade aren't likely to be the major topics of debate in AZ.
Gun Policy is an interesting question, but it raises both risks and opportunities for both Political Party candidates....
In AZ there isn't really that much in the way of Hunting, so most Gun Owners tend to do target shooting on ranges, and maybe have a handgun like a 9 mm for self-protection (Which is one of the largest market categories for the Gun Industry).....
Still, even many DEM leaning voters like shooting some mortar style fireworks even during fire season, some gun totting gals might have a handgun in the car or purse, fearing personal assault, plus you got a ton of Anglo Macho dudes with ex-military experience that believe they will be the Hero's to protect us from the next mass murder....
Politics of Guns are tricky, but an AZ-DEM Candidate should mainly focus on common sense Gun Policy....
"Universal Background Checks for all firearm financial transactions excepting immediate Family".
Recognizing that let's say I want to sell my AR-15 to my Son-in-Law, since I bought it 15 Years ago and spent some $$$ here and there to shoot some bullets on the rifle range, but don't need this toy around my house anymore, and additionally the price of "Lead" is increasing, unless you want to spend the time "building bullets" after you get off of your 12 Hour shift structure....
"Banning Semi-Autos" becomes much more controversial in Az....
Boys like their toys, and many of them are ex-military and police, and tons of folks that somehow think it makes you a man to own a giant big rod, just like you are playing Doom.
There are many ways for a DEM to do common sense Gun reform.... "Close down the Gun Show Loophole" (AKA FED Universal Background Checks).
The framing of Gun Control political debate within AZ:
1.) should focus most heavily on how the Mexican Cartels are purchasing weapons from AZ at Gun Shows, shipping them across the border to fuel what has essentially been a 10+ Year Civil War between Non-State actors, combined with various period of repression from the Mexican State that have been ineffective.
2.) Domestic violence murders at the hands of estranges spouses, who might be ex-cons but can still buy a gun and murder their wife (Usually these tend to be Male > Female Murders).
3.) Shopping it as why should any "Ex-Cons banned from owning Guns be allowed to own a Gun because of the loopholes"
4.) "Red Flag Laws"---- immediate friends/family can report to the authorities that someone has been talking about stuff like committing suicide, committing a massive White Supremacist Mass Murder, talking about taking out a relative or a politician....
Why shouldn't their be an immediate "FREEZE" movement to legally buy a weapon after friends and family members are saying WAIT!!!
5.) I believe a (72 Hr) waiting period should be the bare minimum, although likely FED checks might take longer.... my son in law might lend me a fun toy that I can take out to the rifle range, but I shouldn't be allowed to own it without going through a comprehensive vetting, even though in this hypothetical scenario we are all family....
So regardless of my "Gun Rant"..... DEMs need to be careful about how they approach these issues....
Large majorities of Americans are in favor of "Common Sense", but once people start looking it like a "takeaway" you have an entirely different situation....
