Wipeout!

[NyIndy]

Chapter 1 Part 1: NOVEMBER 4th, 2020

TRUMP HOLDS ON TO WHITE HOUSE ON BACK OF THE STRONG ECONOMY

Joesph R. Biden/Kamala D. Harris - 268 EV 48.8%
Donald J. Trump/Michael R. Pence - 270EV 47.1%

SENATE STAYS RED WITH VP PENCE


KAMALA
November 4th - 2:15

'Unbelievable', Kamala stared at the Television as they called Wisconsin and Arizona for the President.
She'd gone upstairs to get away from the crowd, and if she was being honest, to get away from Joe. Following his disastrous debate performances, Kamala had been barely able to get through campaign events she had to do together with him. He always seemed unable to accept his shortcomings as a candidate and his stubbornness angered her.
 After the convention shot them into an even more seemingly unassailable lead, "Uncle Joe's" campaigning became even more sluggish, while Trump's grew more and more vigorous. She could blame so many different things for their loss. Bernie's fans who refused to vote for a ticket without a 'real progressive' on it. Wisconsin and Arizona had been lost by less than a percent each, after all. But Kamala knew none of it would have mattered without Joe dropping the ball.
'Well, maybe this loss would be good for me, I'll probably be in a good position for 2024.' She sighed and picked up her buzzing phone. It was time to concede.
 

[Elcaspar]

Already looking forward to more of this TL.

[libertpaulian]

...and the House?  Governors?

[Politician]

McSally winning while Perdue loses? Hard to believe.

[NyIndy]

...and the House?  Governors?

GOP takes out Cunningham and Brindisi while the Dems flip TX-23, Chip Roy’s district, and GA-07. On the Gov side MT-GOV is the only flip, and Cox is the new gov of Utah.

[NyIndy]

Chapter 1 Part 2: January 7th, 2022

Chinese crackdown on resurgent Hong Kong protesters

DOW DOWN ANOTHER 2% TODAY, 20% THIS MONTH

KIRSTEN
January 7th, 2022 3:20 p.m.

'Oh my god.'
Kirsten sat in her office, staring at the report from the cybersecurity committee in front of her. Congress had promised to work on gun control following the short winter recess they got for the holidays following the shootings in Little Rock and her native Albany, all of this coming off of last month's shooting in Scranton on Black Friday. She looked forward to hopefully having the momentum to implement significant and meaningful gun control. But when this got out, there was going to be no air in the news cycle for the planned gun control bill to breath.
There had been claims of voters being taken off the rolls across the country. But now, there was definitive proof that some group, the report believed them to be Russian, had targeted minorities to be removed from voter registration rolls and prevent them from voting. Whoever did it was able to target swing states effectively. In fact, in both Wisconsin and Arizona, there were slightly more deregistered voters than the President's margin of victory. She knew that all of her colleagues on the subcommittee would be reading this too. The report could not establish a link between the Trump campaign and those behind the breach. She wondered how the Republicans would react. She could only hope they would act in America's best interests.

AN: Does this seem realistic? I tried to make everything believable, and would it be realistic for this to be released immediately?

[Morgan Kingsley]

Trump should have probably won one extra state to prevent faithless electors throwing it to the house or even to biden

[libertpaulian]

I could definitely see the Russians playing dirty again, especially with the Dems taking a meaner tone on Russia.

[NyIndy]

Chapter 1 Part 3: January 29th, 2022

MARTHA
January 29th 8:45 p.m.

Martha walked fast out of her campaign event, passing the throngs of press pushing forward to ask her questions.
"Senator! Is the president still legitimate?"
"Senator McSally, are YOU a legitimate Senator?"
Martha stopped. She won by more votes than were purged off the voter rolls, narrowly, but it was true. She wanted to turn around and lecture the reporter who asked, but knew they wanted a reaction. Her chief of staff was trying to guide her through the press swarm, but she stayed put. The press surrounded her and kept shouting questions, but she drowned them out. All of the Democrats in the Senate had acknowledged the breach of voter registration. Many had called for the president to resign, others hadn't gone that far, but called for there to be a serious inquiry into the legitimacy of the election. However, some Republicans had done the same. Murkowski, Portman, Sasse, Romney, Fischer, Ernst, Rubio, Rounds, and even Capito, from staunchly Republican West Virginia, had somewhat questioned the President's legitimacy. If her colleagues could do the right thing, she told herself, so can she.
"There are serious concerns about the legitimacy of the President of the United States." She began to tell the Press.
The questions stopped, as the reporters around her listened intently, and her chief of staff stared in shock. They had explicitly dodged questions about this in her campaign event and had planned to get away from the press without any problems.
"We need an investigation into what exactly went on, if they determined the outcome of the election, who knew what, and who was behind this. No matter who it was or if the outcome would have been unchanged, they need to be punished. When we all get back to Washington, I hope Mitch will bring the election security bills that have been put forward up for a vote. Thank you, and excuse me." McSally walked through the crowd as more questions were shouted. She ignored them and got into her car.

Potential Republican Revolt in Senate
Febuary 1st, 2022
Martha McSally and Jerry Moran have become the two latest Senators to call for an investigation into the discrepancies in voter registration rolls that prevented many minority voters from voting. The President is still pushing back through tweets, claiming that many of the Republican Senators who called for an investigation are caving under pressure...

Stock Market Tumbles During Uncertainty over Legitimacy of Presidential Election

CHUCK
Febuary 2nd, 2022

Chuck wanted to be in Washington. He really did. Instead, he was in Albany, trying to head off a primary challenge from the left. He had just gotten off the stage with Governor Cuomo, both dealing with challengers from their left. Cuomo will likely be able to crush Nomiki Konst in his primary, but Schumer was facing Progressive golden child Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. Chuck saw her as a vulture. As soon as polls saw his approval decline after he was seen as unable to halt the President's agenda as effectively as Nancy could in the House, she swept in. Polls show Cuomo beating Konst 60 - 20. But the same polls have him with a narrow lead in 42 - 37. The money going into his campaign is being offset by grassroots progressives fundraising for her from places like Our Revolution and the Young Turks endorsing or asking for donors for her. Chuck knew he'd have to be in Washington, dealing with the economy and election interference, and leave his opponent able to campaign unopposed against him.

[Elcaspar]

CHUCK OUT THE CHUCK!

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I honestly don’t see R senators having enough spine to revolt.

[RedPrometheus]

I like this timeline and am looking forward to an update!

[NyIndy]

I like this timeline and am looking forward to an update!

Thanks! Here you go

Chapter 1 Part 4: February 1st, 2022


ALEXANDRIA

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could feel the energy on the ground for her campaign. Stops across New York were met with "Chuck out Chuck" signs and large, young, energetic crowds. Sure, Chuck got the machine, but she had the people. Not counting the money she raised in her 4 years in congress, she'd raised 5 million dollars in her first week and her fundraising seemed to actually be keeping pace with Schumer and his corporate donors. As she looked out behind the curtain to the crowd in front of her she smiled.
"I'm really gonna do it." She said to herself. She was gonna take down Chuck Schumer. The New York politicos rallied around Chuck after she'd jumped in the primary. "Progressives" like Kirsten Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo, and Bill deBlasio had all swept in to save Schumer. The same people who eliminated her district were now scrambling after she went after one of their own. That was fine. She had her own backup to call on.
"I'd now like to introduce the person you've all been waiting for, she's a fighter, and she'll take on the fights Chuck has been to scared too... Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez!"
She walked on stage, waving to the cheering crowd as she grabbed the microphone.
"Thank you Tulsi..."

Republicans Try to Deal with Retirements in House and Senate as Economy Worsens
Feb. 2nd, 2022

Many Republican incumbents have decided to leave office rather than fight for another term as their economic and political forecasts worsen. Ann Wagner and Roy Blunt have both announced retirements in Missouri this week alone. Other retirements include Johnny Issakson of Georgia, and Ron Johnson on the Senate side. Other Incumbent Senators rumored to be likely to retire are Jerry Moran of Kansas, Richard Burr of North Carolina, Chuck Grassley in Iowa and Rob Portman of Ohio.

AMY

Everyone was gearing up for 2024. Amy knew she was. Many who, like Amy had failed to break through had been getting ready to do so since Arizona was called for Trump.
Kirsten was in New York, trying to shore up the New York delegation (and donors) to fully back her next run, while also trying to get behind certain candidates in races they'd hope to flip in '22. She knew she was talking extensively to Galloway and Lamb on the Senatorial side, and Molly Kelly, Whitmer, and Hoffman on the Gubernatorial side. Others like Chris Murphy were trying to make a name for themselves for the first time nationally by making the media rounds regularly. Murphy seemed to bank on the MSNBC, Maddow and Joe in particular.
Meanwhile, while some 2020 heavyweights like Harris and Warren were keeping options open, Biden and Sanders had all but ruled out running, both having ruined reputations by the time the dust settled on 2020. Other candidates like Pete and Beto had their eyes on the Senate seats and governorships up in their home states.
Amy herself knew she was a good surrogate to those wishing to indicate bipartisanship. She made herself highly visible in the Midwestern swing states, which was what she was doing in Iowa tonight.
She stepped up to the podium and began.
"Thank you all for coming here tonight. I know it's a bit chilly, but we midwesterners are used to that right?" She waited for the applause to pass. "I'm here to tell you about Cindy Axne..."

[NyIndy]

Chapter 1: Part 5: February 8th, 2022

NOTE: This will be the last part of chapter 1. This is gonna give you a glimpse into the midterm, Trump and the Democratic primary. Leave a comment with any suggestions or criticism you may have! I'm dying to hear!
Chris

"This Presiden..."
"Thank you Senator Murph..."
"This is not us, Rachel, its just..."
"Senator, th..."
"Rachel, this is so wrong this is just not the America that we know and lo..."
"OK, that was Senator Murphy from Connecticut. I'm Rachel Maddow and you're watching MSNBC"
"Erm, Hello?" Chris asked, only then realized his mic had been cut off.
Chris had been making the rounds on CNN and MSNBC in the past months, whenever President Trump announced a new policy proposal, Chris had been sure to be the first Democrat to attack it on Cable news. This particular one was Trump floating the possibility of banning immigrants from entering the country if they were believed to be less wealthy than the average American. How would that work? Who knew. Was it constitutional? Almost certainly not. But it didn't matter, almost anything the President said, Murphy was chomping at the bit for airtime.
Everyone knew what he was planning, and he didn't care. While others like Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown were getting out there by campaigning with candidates across the country in preparation for the upcoming midterms, Chris had been quite clear in his intentions since 2021. He had made multiple trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. Not to support J.D. Scholten or Molly Kelly, but by himself to speak directly to voters in the crucial early states. As he looked at early polling, he knew he needed exposure.

HarrisX polling of National Democratic Primary Jan. 2022
Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 18%
Sen. Kamala Harris - 14%
Sen. Cory Booker - 6%
Gov. Gavin Newsom - 4%
Rep. Andrew Yang - 4%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - 4%
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand - 4%
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer - 4%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar - 3%
Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro - 3%
Sen. Sherrod Brown - 3%
Gov. Jared Polis - 3%
Sen. Tammy Duckworth - 3%
Sen. Tim Kaine - 2%
Sen. Joe Kennedy - 2%
Sen. Jeff Merkley - 2%
Gov. Andrew Cuomo - 2%
Sen. Tammy Baldwin - 2%
Gov. Laura Kelly - 2%
Sen. Mark Warner - 1%
Sen. Martin Heinrich - 1%
Tom Steyer - 1%
Sen. Michael Bennet - 1%
Sen. Chris Murphy - 1%
Others - 0% (inc. Rep. Eric Swalwell, Fmr. Rep. Seth Moulton, Fmr. Rep. John Delaney, Sen. Hickenlooper, and Gov. Jay Inlsee)


Midterms look nasty for the Republican Party

Current Senate Map

Donald

The President Looked at the horrible Senate map before him. He knew that many of these ratings hinged on Republican incumbents fighting out their races. He also knew many of those incumbents are not planning on running and the news was going to drop soon.
The house was losing incumbents too. He just spoke to Rep. Stefanik, who was thinking of retiring. Many former rising stars were thinking of leaving congress behind, if they already hadn't. Dan Crenshaw was currently locked in a fight with Dan Patrick for the Governorship of Texas, at least the Nomination. Meanwhile Marco Rubio was apparently considering making a last minute exit from his Senate race, likely to avoid the possibility of a loss harming his chances in 2024. Meanwhile, Charlie Baker had decided against running for reelection. Spending a suspiciously large amount of time in New Hampshire despite "denying" considering a run in 24.
Trump sighed. Some of those mentioned were people who were loyal to him, at least publicly. Meanwhile, others running for reelection had just stabbed him in the back. Calling for an investigation into the alleged hacking that occurred in 2020.
He picked up his most recent internal polling.

Trump Approval
Disapprove: 55%
Approve: 39%

Congressional Generic Ballot 2022
Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 40%
Other: 3%

2024 Presidential Ballot
Democratic Presidential Candidate: 48%
Republican Presidential Candidate: 43%
Other: 4%


He scoffed. His polls looked much worse at this point and he won reelection.
"Legitimately", he reminded himself.
The President thought to himself. What was the point of having control in the Senate if so many Senators were just wolves in sheeps clothing? What was the point of going to Arizona, and Florida, and Ohio to campaign for these people if they were going to stab him in the back in their quest to replace him? He decided he was going to give them an ultimatum.
He rolled himself over and picked up his phone.

Republican Presidential Primary
VP Mike Pence - 15%
Fmr. UN. Ambassador Nikki Haley - 11%
Gov. Ron DeSantis - 11%
Sen. Ted Cruz - 9%
Sen. Marco Rubio - 7%
Gov. Gregg Abbot - 5%
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich - 4%
Gov. Kristi Noem - 4%
Sen. Lisa Murkowski - 4%
Gov. Charlie Baker - 4%
Sen. Martha McSally - 3%
Fmr. Rep. Michelle Bachmann - 3%
Sen. Liz Cheney - 3%
Fmr. AG Pam Bondi - 3%
Sen. Tim Scott - 3%
Gov. Phil Scott - 3%
Rep. Elise Stefanik - 2%
Fmr. Rep. Will Hurd - 2%
Carly Fiorina - 1%
Others - 0% (inc. Bobby Jindal, Jim Jordan, James Lankford)

[NyIndy]

Chapter 2 Part 1: February 9th, 2022

Marco
February 9th, 12:51 a.m.

Marco was awoken by the buzzing phone on his dresser. As he picked it up he saw it was his chief of staff.
"Hello?" Marco asked, still trying to wake himself up.
"Marco, have you seen what the President tweeted?"
"Let me check, I'll talk to you later."
"Hurry."
As usual, Marco had no clue what exactly the President was saying, but he truly couldn't have been less prepared for what he saw.



"Jesus Christ", Marco thought.
Was Trump trying to force their hands into retiring? He and Rob were entrenched incumbents, and Martha hadn't even finished a full term in the Senate. If he was trying to strong arm them out of the Senate, then  by extension forcing his party out of controlling the body.
He redialed his Chief of Staff.
"We need to talk to Martha and Rob."


Ronna
Feb. 9th, 5:45

Ronna looked up from her phone, hoping this was a joke.
"What the hell is he doing?"
She was in DC today meeting with Iowa's Lieutenant Governor Adam Gregg, who was going to jump into the race to replace Chuck Grassley just days after the aging Senator announced his retirement next week. Now she seemed to have to talk the President down from threatening the party by dangling vulnerable Senators over the abyss. Getting no support from the President could doom the three.
"The same could be said of getting too much."
At least before they had the economy to try and focus on in 2018, even if Donald barely did. This time, growth of jobs had seemingly ground to a halt. The first negative month for job creation since the recession had been in 2021. Since then it had been shedding jobs most of the time. If Ronna was being honest, the map looked like a disaster, and if incumbents weren't a factor, Ronna would be positive the Senate was gone. She'd been trying to get in touch with the Senators in question and hadn't heard much back yet.
"Ms. McDaniel! They're doing a press conference!"
She exited her office and looked at the TV. Senators McSally, Portman and Rubio were on the screen.
A press conference at 6 am?
"We love our country and our Party Mr. President, and we would respect you as well. When we ask for an investigation into the hacking of the 2020 election it is not an attack on you. We believe national security is an utmost priority of this nation. And to that end, we ask you to cooperate with the investigation so it may not occur again. However, also important to us is the economy, and everyday American's prosperity. We need you to lead on this, Mr. President. Please, we cannot risk being any more divided than we already are during a time we are being so tested at home and abroad. Any questions?" Portman said.
Reporters hands shot up.
"President Trump said he would not be in your states 'unless something changes', what do you think that means? Your retirement? Taking back the talk of investigations?" A reporter asked.
Rubio stepped up to the mic, "Thanks for the question. I can't tell you what the president meant last night. I personally believe that my state needs a new face in the Senate. I will not be a candidate for the 2022 Florida Senate election."
"Motherf..."

[libertpaulian]

Great so far.  I can see every facet of this happening in real life.

Only one complaint, though: I don't see a Senate map?

[NyIndy]

Great so far.  I can see every facet of this happening in real life.

Only one complaint, though: I don't see a Senate map?

Should be fixed

[Illini Moderate]

This is great so far!

[NyIndy]

This is great so far!

Thanks! I'm pretty busy right now but I'm gonna try to get an update out soon.

[NyIndy]

CHAPTER 2 Part 2: February 12th, 2022

Anderson
Feburary 12th, 8:43

"Welcome back, here I have with me Harry Enten, CNN Election analyst."
"Thanks for Having me, Anderson."
"What effect do you believe the recent Washington drama has had on the Battle For the Senate?"
"Oh well there's certainly been a tremendous effect on the Senate, Both Chuck Grassley and Marco Rubio's retirements have blown races wide open. Democrats have had great success recruiting in both seats with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Cindy Axne jumping into these races. Now, we've moved some seats from our prior ratings. Florida has been moved from Tossup to Lean D after the field has mostly stood aside for Mucarsel Powell while the GOP still has a primary to get through in the form of Matt Gaetz facing off against Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nunez, and Indiana and Missouri are being moved to Lean R after the Democrats got clear fields in the form of Pete Buttigieg and Nicole Galloway. Another Race to watch will be Georgia where Lucy McBath and former Candidate Theresa Tomlinson both seem to be mulling runs."
"Thanks Harry."
"Anytime, Anderson."

This was just a small chapter to hold you guys over since I'm so busy. I hope everyone likes this story, I'd love some feedback!

[NyIndy]

Chapter 2 Part 3: February 20th, 2022

Mike
February 20th, 10:39 p.m.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had been on the phone with his friend Jerry Moran, the Senator from Kansas. Moran had been looking at a competitive primary if Kris Kobach jumped in, still seething from his primary defeat by Susan Wagle. The race had gone on to be closer than expected between her and Nancy Boyda, but Wagle pulled out a 7 point win in the end while the President managed a 12 point win. Kobach had continued on his warpath with the KSGOP, claiming they didn't want a true conservative in the Senate. Once that was over, he'd have to potentially face Gov. Laura Kelly. Moran's searching for an out from Congress coincided with Pompeo's attempt to escape the White House. They had decided that the Senator would retire and Mike would take his spot.
He couldn't stand the diplomatic blunders he'd been forced to oversee here at the State Department. Chief among them being the ongoing crisis in Hong Kong, where the extradition bill that had caused so much unrest years ago had been quietly brought back. Protests began again and this time, China cracked down after one protest got violent, following the accidental killing of a teenage girl by Hong Kong Police. The Chinese government used the chaotic protest as an excuse to violently crack down on the demonstrators. The President had remained mostly silent on the issue. He had sent out a single tweet hoping, "it all ends well." Mike and the State Department also released a mild statement criticizing the Chinese, but the President prevented them from doing much else, as he was trying to negotiate the reversal of some tariffs following the worsening of the economy. He began prepare himself to tell the President.

Mike (Pence)
February 21st, 10:21

The President had mostly calmed down by the time it came to talking about potential replacements for Pompeo.
"After all I did for him..." The President fumed.
"Mr. President, we know this has been sudden, but we need to make the best of a bad situation. When Mike goes public we need to act like everything is normal, and that this was expected. We're going to have to put someone up now right after." Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said.
The President had begun to understand the midterms would be bad. He had understood he needed to stop criticizing Republicans in public. And had also been talked out of endorsing Kris Kobach after being told he could possibly lose the seat to Gov. Kelly.
"Look, we need to think about who we want to succeed Mike." Mulvaney continued, "I've been thinking of a few options."
"Why don't we keep Sullivan on full time?" Asked the VP, knowing where Mick was going, and trying to cut him off.
"We can, but I was talking to Nikki, she says she'd do it. She'd be a solid pick. Making her a more active part of the midterms and our administration might help unify our Party."
Damn Pence thought brining Haley back into the Administration just in time for 2024.
The President thought for a moment.
"She'd be good." He murmured.
Pence knew he'd likely lost the President on this one. He sighed, 2024 just got a whole lot harder for him.

[NyIndy]

Chapter 2 Part 4: March 2nd, 2022

Kamala
March 2nd, 4:24 p.m.

Kamala surveyed the crowd at her Los Angeles event. She was supposed to be laying the groundwork for her Presidential run, not fending off four opponents. First it was Kevin de Leon, the man who almost took out Diane Feinstein in 2018, next was Ashley Swearingen, the Moderate Republican who used to be Mayor of Fresno. In a surprise twist, Tom Steyer leapt into the field as well. Kamala knew that her performance as the VP nominee in 2020 was far from desirable, and her tack to the left had been quite sloppy, alienating both sides of the party, but she didn't know the resentment had been deep enough for her seat to actually be in danger.
"Joe lost the election", she reminded herself "he's just not here to take the blame."
She knew if Swearingen was the nominee, she could breath a sigh of relief. There was very little chance of Dems voting for a Republican over her, especially in this year no matter how moderate. She couldn't be sure against the other two, de Leon kept Feinstein within 10 points despite having raised less than a tenth of what she did. Steyer did not inspire the same progressive grassroots, but could obviously match her in-terms of money raised. She could feel the nomination slipping from her hands as she fought to hold on to her seat.

2024 Power Rankings

DEMOCRATS

The Front-Runners

1. Elizabeth Warren

The runner-up of 2020's nomination fight, Warren still has much of the loyalty of the Party's progressive wing. The obvious exception being some supporters of Sanders, who believe their candidate was shafted in favor of Warren, who was in turn felled by Biden. If someone can consolidate the Anti-Warren progressives, they could pose a significant threat to Warren's nomination.

2. Kamala Harris

The California Senator has seen some setbacks in recent months, first from her issues in her home state of California, and on the national stage with some awkward attempts to court the progressive wing of the Party. However, she does seem to be able of consolidating the the support of the establishment, however, Warren was able to get some establishment support as well. If Warren is able to siphon some of the support of the Establishment wing, and the Progressives, who Harris is very unpopular with, she likely wins. However, if Harris can keep voter blocks such as black and hispanic voters with her, she has a very strong shot at victory.

The Second Tier

3. Cory Booker

New Jersey's Senator is the first, but not the last, on this list to have a less than impressive showing in the previous Democratic primary. His campaign spent a lot of time in South Carolina, only for him to drop out after a very disappointing 4% showing in the state. If Booker is able to appeal to black voters and win them over, he will have a very strong performance in the primaries. However, this involves stepping out of Kamala Harris' shadow, as she will be competing for the same lanes in the primary as he is.

4. Gretchen Whitmer

The new Michigan Governor is the first member of the "Class of 2018" to make this list. She had a turbulent first year as Governor, but the public has viewed her favorably throughout. She seems likely to face a no name opponent and could use what is looking like a major victory in November and she could use two impressive wins in a key state as an electability argument.

5. Kirsten Gillibrand

New York's Junior Senator has made many strides to improve her potential performance when compared to her frankly disastrous 2020 run. She has improved her connections to the donors and political establishment of her state, while also increasing her name recognition. She still has a quite a bit of work to do, including getting over her terrible 2020 showing. Her movement up in Senate leadership will help her with the Parties establishment, and her progressive credentials have been strengthened as well.

6. Eric Garcetti

The California Governor could make gains with the Hispanic vote in particular, as well as an entrenched donor base in California, like Booker his problem is quite clear, Kamala Harris. They both come from the same state too, only furthering the problem for Garcetti.

7. Amy Klobuchar

The Minnesota Senator used her better than expected result in Iowa to continue her campaign until Super Tuesday, where she came pitifully close to carrying her home state, prompting her to drop out. She could see herself become a player with Blue Dog support, but she has done little in the past few years to make her position improve compared to 2020.

Dark Horses

8. Andrew Yang

After Andrew Yang withdrew from the Nomination contest following strong showings in the first 4 states, many wondered what his intentions were. It was shortly afterwards that Yang primaried controversial Representative Carolyn Maloney, sweeping her out of office in a convincing win. Yang has been a Representative who has spent a lot of time continuing to shift the Overton Window on his main issue, Universal Basic Income. He has legitimized himself with his showings in 2020 as well as his time as a Representative. Time will tell if he can grow his support beyond the "Yang Gang"

9. Tulsi Gabbard

Rep. Gabbard has been Seen as a potential courter of Bernie's disgruntled supporters. However, the Hawaiian congresswoman is also known for her past controversial views as well as her virulent anti-establishment views, endorsing Kevin De Leon and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez against Senators Harris and Schumer. It's hard to see her being able to piece together a winning coalition.

2020 Primary map

Republicans

Front-Runners

1. Nikki Haley

While new Sec. of State Haley and VP Pence are tied in national polling, Haley takes top spot due to having improved her position the most recently. Her new appointment has grown her standing amongst MAGA types as well as giving her added foreign policy credentials. She can also reach to multiple groups within the GOP, Trump supporters, moderates, among others. In addition, many in the party see her as the stronger candidate in the General, hoping she can win back over the Suburbanites, Minorities and women the party has bled in recent years. The only question is whether or not she will be able to exit the Trump administration as unscathed as she did in 2018.

2. Mike Pence

Mike Pence has been a loyal VP to the President for better and for worse. While this is true, he and the President are two very different people. The biggest threat to his nomination is someone usurping his title as heir to the President, something Haley is getting quite close to doing. If that is done, Pence's only remaining appeal is to Evangelicals, who's influence is waning, meaning it may be Iowa or bust for the VP. Unfortunately, he's not the only one who is courting Evangelicals.

3. Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz was 2016's runner-up. He was able to make a close race against the President, and now would like to return to the nomination fight he came so close to winning 8 years ago. He will likely look to Iowa to give him a win like it did in 2016. Will he be able to recapture the magic that made him so popular amongst social conservatives, or has Trump changed the Party too much? That is the question for Cruz.

The Second Tier

4. Marco Rubio

Rubio would have been in the Front Runner section of this list a month ago, but his shocking clash with the President has certainly knocked the Senator down a few pegs. The President has significantly hurt the Senator's chances of getting the nomination. However the Senator is already making his intentions to continue forth with multiple stops in early states being made by him.

5. Martha McSally

While she has also clashed with the President, Senator McSally has been able to turn the situation to her advantage. She still has a difficult road ahead with reelection in Arizona, but she and the President have made some amends, while also making her seem like a "Maverick" to steal a term from her beloved predecessor.

6. Greg Abbot

Abbot is from a rapidly diversifying state and being able to keep the state red is a good selling point for the Governor. While he is retiring after this turn, he is also not as well known as Senator Cruz, who can potentially make the same argument, although he is admittedly far less popular. If the Governor can make the rest of the nation see him as the superior alternative to Cruz he could be a strong contender.

Dark Horses

7. Kristi Noem

The Governor of a small red state, Noem has kept a somewhat low profile, but has been talked up as a potential rising star in the Party. She is a woman with a strong life story behind her who could potentially do well in a setting like Iowa. She has taken some risks by criticizing the ill effects of the Trump tariffs on farmers in her state, a potentially strong message in Iowa.

8. Elise Stefanik

Another Young rising star, Stefanik is from an upstate district in New York, where Fort Drum is located. She has a strong independent streak recently, but has stood close enough to Trump to avoid the ire of die hard Trump fans, the only question is if she could win enough of them over with a strong showing in nearby New Hampshire to propel her to victory.

9. John Kasich

The former Governor of Ohio is obviously angling towards a run, making frequent visits to New Hampshire, however he seems to have shot himself in the foot with his explicit anti-Trump messaging. After the failures of the 2020 primary challengers to the Donald, it is clear there isn't enough anti-Trump Sentiment in the party to get someone to the nomination. Republicans who would support the Governor have moved to support candidates like Stefanik, McSally and Rubio, who are different to Trump, but not toxic to his supporters to attempt to shift the party back to the way it was pre-2016.

[NyIndy]

Interlude

As Kennedy Surprisingly Eyes Prez. Bid, He's Haunted by Ghosts of Races Past
March 16th, 2022

After a surprising leak revealing that Senator Joe Kennedy III is eyeing a bid at the Presidency, many have called the Senator too ambitious for his own good. Senator Kennedy is sitting quite low in polls and yet has shockingly high unfavorables, following a bitter and widely publicized primary against Incumbent Senator Ed Markey. Kennedy is disliked by many in the progressive wing of the party for his unseating of the respected incumbent. Kennedy cut it much closer than a member of the esteemed Kennedy family probably should have, only beating out Markey 51.2% to 47.8%. While Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was criticized after being caught calling Kennedy, "the epitome of white privilege" backstage at an event for Markey in Boston in 2020, many still use the attack to hit the Senator.
"If you look at it, he'd be a first term Senator running on no major accomplishments but rather name recognition and charisma." Said one Democratic Strategist, who refused to be identified for this piece, "It would be much like the road taken by President Obama to the nomination.", however, Obama was quite popular amongst all Democrats in 2008, Kennedy has already engendered quite a bit of bad blood with the left. It remains unknown how the Senator would intend to mend those bridges if he were to be the nominee.

[NyIndy]

Interlude Part 2

Will Republicans Search for New Direction Following Trump?
March 20th, 2022

The President has been on the warpath, mostly against his opponents but to an extent against parts of his own party as well. While President Trump's spat with Marco Rubio has seemingly mortally wounded a candidate who was clearly positioning himself to become the next nominee for the party in 2024. Since the President will be term limited in 2024, it is worth wondering what direction Republicans think their party should go following the Presidents retirement.
"The Republican Party is looking to expand outreach to women and minorities." A Republican source who wished to remain anonymous stated. The party establishment clearly hopes that the party can veer to the center and attempt to reclaim the suburbs and staunch the rapid bleeding of what little minority support the GOP enjoyed. At the same time, the current base of the part has rapidly trended to areas where populations are declining, such as rural and white working class areas. Many believe that to expand their appeal, the party should consider putting someone who can grow the party's appeal to women and minorities. The obvious choice is Nikki Haley, an Indian-American woman, the party clearly have high hopes Haley can bring Suburban Women back into the fold and keep the margins of loss among minority voters closer than under the divisive President. However, her current status as Secretary of State in the Trump administration, while a very smart move to grow support within the party, could negate whatever previously described advantages she may have had.
Meanwhile what few other female and minority candidates have begun to drop, speculated candidate Will Hurd has already taken his hat out of the ring, throwing his support behind his friend Rep. Elise Stefanik. The only other female candidates believed to be strongly considering running at this point would be Governor Noem and Senator McSally.

[NyIndy]

TL WRAP UP

I don't really have the time to work on this TL anymore, so I thought I'd let ya'll in on how I was was gonna end this. I am, however planning on putting out a Game Change style book about an alternate 2016 at some point soon. Ive been drafting quite a bit so when I get the time to flesh it out more expect that.

2022 Senate Races:



(And Yes AOC wins the primary against Schumer)


Dems expand Gov and House control as well.


2024 Rep. Primary:

McSally
Stefanik
Noem

The three most shocking results of the Republican primary were that the early front runners flamed out, that three women were theist three standing, or that the winner was Martha McSally, who had just lost her Senate seat, and who many assumed was just running for Sec Def. or some other military related cabinet post.

2024 Democratic Primary Map:

Gretchen Whitmer
Kirsten Gillibrand
Cory Booker

Both major candidates in 2024, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris decided against running again, and the field became chaos. It quickly cleared after the first few contests and the Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker and Gretchen Whitmer were the final 3 standing. Gillibrand appealed best to educated whites, while Booker banked on minority support and Sen. Whitmer claimed the electability argument, being the popular gov. of a diverse swing state. She was ultimately nominated.

2024 General:

I'll go into more detail if asked, but never the less it does not go well for McSally.