Which Democratic governor is more likely to win re-election?

[Xing]

Cooper easily.

[Pericles]

Cooper, while both are strong candidates and Bel Edwards is probably a stronger candidate, NC being so much less Republican than LA makes Cooper the obvious choice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both will win

[😥]

Cooper, but:

Both will win

[Suburbia]

Both will win reelection and will be a part of the Democratic Party's future in connecting with white working class voters.

[SnowLabrador]

Cooper and it's not even close. I actually think Bel Edwards loses.

[Politician]

Cooper and it's not even close. I actually think Bel Edwards loses.

>Double digit lead in the polls
>Still thinks he will lose

[Gracile]

Cooper.

[lfromnj]

The one with similar approvals in a Trump +4 state compared to the Trump +20 state.

[S019]

Cooper easily.

[libertpaulian]

Cooper.

[Mr. Smith]

Counterpoint: Edwards can slide through via low turnout, Cooper could end up attached to how the Democratic nominee does against Trump...and he barely got through on +2R Swing from 2012...if Trump manages even a point improvement in NC, Cooper probably goes out just because of all the straight-ticket voting and high turnout.

[MT Treasurer]

Unpopular opinion: JBE, who is benefiting from off-year turnout dynamics, a fairly weak challenger, and relatively good approval numbers. This doesn’t mean that Cooper isn’t favored, but he could definitely lose in a Republican wave year since he doesn’t have nearly as much crossover appeal as JBE (which is to a large extent offset by NC's status as a swing state, of course).

There isn’t any reason to believe that JBE is in much trouble unless you buy the usual "muh polarization"/"muh inelastic Deep South" talking points.

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

Both will win

[Lechasseur]

Unpopular opinion: JBE, who is benefiting from off-year turnout dynamics, a fairly weak challenger, and relatively good approval numbers. This doesn’t mean that Cooper isn’t favored, but he could definitely lose in a Republican wave year since he doesn’t have nearly as much crossover appeal as JBE (which is to a large extent offset by NC's status as a swing state, of course).

There isn’t any reason to believe that JBE is in much trouble unless you buy the usual "muh polarization"/"muh inelastic Deep South" talking points.

Agreed, I think JBE is more likely to be reelected than Cooper too, for the reasons you gave; but both are favored to be reelected imo

[Fuzzy Bear]

Unpopular opinion: JBE, who is benefiting from off-year turnout dynamics, a fairly weak challenger, and relatively good approval numbers. This doesn’t mean that Cooper isn’t favored, but he could definitely lose in a Republican wave year since he doesn’t have nearly as much crossover appeal as JBE (which is to a large extent offset by NC's status as a swing state, of course).

There isn’t any reason to believe that JBE is in much trouble unless you buy the usual "muh polarization"/"muh inelastic Deep South" talking points.

Agreed, I think JBE is more likely to be reelected than Cooper too, for the reasons you gave; but both are favored to be reelected imo

I voted Cooper.  The above arguments hold some weight, but JBE hasn't polled over 50%. and that ought to be disconcerting.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe JBE smdh

[Xing]

Well, I suppose we’ll have to see if Cooper does better than a 2.6% win. My guess is that he will.

[jbrian]

JOE