It's looking increasingly likely that, given no real errors and a continued slow climb, Warren will be the nominee.
Anyone who thinks Trump is capable of pulling off anything close to that, against anyone, is off their rocker. He’s not Reagan. He’s not even Nixon. Hell, he’s not even a Bush. All these Republican fantasy maps about Trump sweeping Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, etc. are ridiculous. Never mind the even crazier ones with things like him winning New Mexico and Oregon. It’s just not gonna happen. The nation is too polarized in general, and Trump is even more polarizing than other politicians. We’re talking about a guy who can barely hold a 40% approval rating with 3% unemployment. If the economy tanks, he’s doomed. George McGovern’s corpse could beat him.
As it is he’s still highly vulnerable, yes even to Warren. She is a very good fit for the upper Midwest — there’s a reason she is leading primary polls in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin comfortably. Against her, Trump’s economic populism about trade and factory jobs and stuff would fall flat, unlike against Hillary, and the fact that his tariffs and trade wars are already screwing farmers over even without a recession won’t help. I can easily see Warren sweeping the Midwest/Rust Belt, yes including your own Michigan.
So what other states could Trump win then to make up for that? It’s not gonna be Nevada or New Mexico or any other Western state he already lost — Latinos hate him too much for that. It’s not gonna be New England states like Maine or New Hampshire — that’s Warren’s backyard. I think the electoral math genuinely is in her favor and those who dismiss her as a threat to Trump because “something something leftist, something something Pocahontas” are being foolish and arrogant. Much like some of us were about Trump’s chances...
On another note, an ex-Republican from Oklahoma beating an ex-Democrat from New York sure would be something.
