Bellwether counties by state

[jimrtex]

New Hampshire -
Belknap, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham - Rep 2004
Cheshire, Grafton, Merrimack, Strafford - Dem 2000
Coos - Dem 1976.

That leaves Sullivan, which has been a bellwether for the state since at least 1956.

Sullivan missed in 1936, the first election FDR carried the state.

[jimrtex]

Before 1964 Aroostook hadn't voted Democratic in any election that Dave has data for.

But neither had Maine (except 1912)

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And Aroostook, which also went Bull Moose.

[jimrtex]

Mississippi -

That leaves Carroll, Covington, George, Greene, Pearl River, Perry, Stone, Wayne, Webster, bellwethers since at least 1960.

George, Pearl River, and Stone were the only 3 counties carried by Hoover.

Dave doesn't have county maps for 1936 and 1916, but considering the 94% and 92% Dem statewide margins, these were probably statewide sweeps.

Leaving   Carroll, Covington, Greene, Perry, Wayne, Webster since at least 1912.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Before 1964 Aroostook hadn't voted Democratic in any election that Dave has data for.

But neither had Maine (except 1912)

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And Aroostook, which also went Bull Moose.

True; I typed before I looked again... odd that Aroostook is a bellwether as for most of the period it was even more Republican than the state as a whole.

[jimrtex]

Missouri -

Lincoln - state bellwether since at least 1960

Not surprising since Lincoln is also one of the bellwether counties for the country, and Missouri has not missed missed the winner since 1956 (and had it not switched from Ike to Stevenson then, it would have a streak of 26 from 1904).   Given the Missouri record, it is remarkable that Kerry abandoned the state in 2004.

Lincoln voted for Stevenson in 1956, making its record as a state bellwether one election more than its record as a national bellwether.  Lincoln also voted for Stevenson in 1952, when the state voted for Eisenhower.

Lincoln is on the southern edge of the Dem-leaning Little Dixie area with with just a tad of St.Louis suburban influence to vote with Republican winners.  Nowadays it is becoming exurban St.Louis.  In 1860 and 1960 the county had 14K+ with a 1900 peak just over 18K.  Another 14K was added between 1960 and 1990. and a 3rd 14K between 1990 and 2000.

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Maybe, but not too different from the 1956 result with the exception of one area.

There were 4 counties, 3 in the north and 1 in the Kansas City area that voted Ike -> Stevenson -> Nixon, so were Republican in 1952 and 1960.

Nixon picked up two counties on the edge of the boothill area (reducing the Democrat counties from 6 to 4).

Kennedy picked up 4 counties in the St.Louis area that had voted for Ike both times, including St Louis County and St Charles, and two slightly further afield.

Where the big difference was, was in an area in SC Missouri on the eastern fringe of the Ozarks, where 8 Stevenson counties switched to Nixon.   This area continued to vote Democratic (see 1996, but with the area shifted a bit towards St.Louis.  In 1956, there was a distinct Republican gap between St. Louis and the are in the question.  In 1996 a few more counties on the west had gone solidly Republican, but on the east the area had merged with the St.Louis area).

[they don't love you like i love you]

Hmmm, I forgot about this. I guess since now I have all the free time in the world I should finish. I'll do a few more now.

[minionofmidas]

It's actually complete, I did all the states that hadn't been done yet.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What's the list then?

[minionofmidas]

AL - Madison, DeKalb, Cleburne, Calhoun, St.Clair, Tuscaloosa, Autauga, Elmore, Pike, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Covington, Escambia, Monroe. (at least 1940)
AK - no data
AZ - La Paz, Navajo, Gila, Pinal, Greenlee (1996)
AR - Miller, Franklin, Cleburne, Lonoke (1940)
CA - Monterey, San Benito, Santa Barbara, Imperial (1952)
CO - Larimer, Garfield (1952)
CT - Middlesex (1948)
DE - New Castle (1952)
FL - Osceola (1980 if Gore won FL in 2000); Citrus (1956 if Bush won FL in 2000)
GA - Haralson, Franklin, Monroe, Jones, Dodge, Laurens, Candler, Worth, Jeff Davis, Bacon, Brantley (1932)
HI - Kauai, Kalawao, Maui, Hawaii (1964)
ID - Boise, Kootenai (1924)
IL - Peoria, Champaign (1964, or 1952 if you think Nixon won Illinois in 1960)
IN - Noble, Benton, White, Grant, Henry, Fountain, Montgomery, Parke (1900)
IA - Winnebago (1932)
KS - Bourbon, Lyon, Ottawa, Saline (at least 1892)
KY - Lawrence (1956)
LA - Natchitoches (1912)
ME - Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford (1916)
MD - Baltimore County, Howard (1984)
MA - Essex (1936)
MI - Muskegon, Isabella, Kalamazoo, Ingham (1972)
MN - Pine (1960)
MS - Carroll, Covington, Greene, Pine, Wayne, Webster (at least 1912)
MO - Lincoln (1956)
MT - Sanders (1928)
NE - Logan, Boone, Nemahah, Lancaster, Seward, Fillmore, Clay, Nuckolls, Webster (1900)
NV - Mineral (1996)
NH - Sullivan (1940)
NJ - Union (1964)
NM - Colfax (1992)
NY - Niagara, Broome, Albany (1980)
NC -New Hanover, Carteret (1912)
ND - Stutsman, Barnes, Cass (1908)
OH - Hocking (1912)
OK - Custer, Oklahoma, Cleveland (1924)
OR - Hood River, Washington, Benton (1948)
PA - Luzerne (1936)
RI - Bristol (1916)
SC - Laurens (1900)
SD - Clark, Brookings (1892)
TN - Anderson (1936)
TX - Lampasas, Parker, Young (1856)
UT - Wayne (1896)
VT - Washington, Rutland, Bennington (1900)
VA - Loudoun (1940)
WA - King (1892)
WV - Monogalia, Tucker, Raleigh (1916)
WI - Jackson, Adams (1916)
WY - Platte (1912)

[jimrtex]

CO - Alamosa (1944)

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The following have voted for the Texas winner since the county's creation.

Shackelford   1876
Aransas        1872 (1856 for Refugio)
Brown           1860
Lampasas     1856
Parker           1856
Young           1856