Bellwether counties by state

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These are counties that serve as bellwethers for how the state votes, not the national one. We had a way old thread on this so I thought I'd bring it back and see if we can complete it. If you can do any of the blank states, go ahead. The year in parantheses is the year when it started its streak of voting for the state's winner, although in some cases that's only as far back as the maps go:

AL
AK
AZ - La Paz, Navajo, Gila, Pinal, Greenlee (1996)
AR - Miller, Franklin, Cleburne, Lonoke (1940)
CA - Monterey, San Benito, Santa Barbara, Imperial (1952)
CO - Alamosa (1944)
CT - Middlesex (1948)
DE - New Castle (1952)
FL - Osceola (1980 if Gore won FL in 2000); Citrus (1956 if Bush won FL in 2000)
GA - Haralson, Franklin, Monroe, Jones, Dodge, Laurens, Candler, Worth, Jeff Davis, Bacon, Brantley (1932)
HI - Kauai, Kalawao, Maui, Hawaii (1964)
ID - Boise, Kootenai (1924)
IL - Peoria, Champaign (1964, or 1952 if you think Nixon won Illinois in 1952)
IN - Noble, Benton, White, Grant, Henry, Fountain, Montgomery, Parke (1900)
IA - Winnebago (1932)
KS
KY - Lawrence (1956)
LA - Natchitoches (1912)
ME
MD - Baltimore County, Howard (1984)
MA - Essex (1936)
MI - Muskegon, Isabella, Kalamazoo, Ingham (1972)
MN - Pine (1960)
MS
MO - Lincoln (1956)
MT - Sanders (1928)
NE - Logan, Boone, Nemahah, Lancaster, Seward, Fillmore, Clay, Nuckolls, Webster (1900)
NV - Mineral (1996)
NH
NJ - Union (1964)
NM - Colfax (1992)
NY - Niagara, Broome, Albany (1980)
NC -New Hanover, Carteret (1912)
ND - Stutsman, Barnes, Cass (1908)
OH - Hocking (1912)
OK - Custer, Oklahoma, Cleveland (1924)
OR - Hood River, Washington, Benton (1948)
PA - Luzerne (1936)
RI - Bristol (1916)
SC - Laurens (1900)
SD - Clark, Brookings (1892)
TN - Anderson (1936)
TX - Jeff Davis, Kinney, Aransas, Calhoun, Lavaca, Wharton, Jackson, Mills, Brown, Shackleford, Young, Parker, Hunt (1940)
UT - Wayne (1896)
VT - Washington, Rutland, Bennington (1900)
VA - Loudoun (1940)
WA - King (1892)
WV - Monogalia, Tucker, Raleigh (1916)
WI - Jackson, Adams (1916)
WY - Platte (1912)

[jimrtex]

CO - Alamosa (1944)

Clinton carried Alamosa in 1996.

Dems have only carried CO in 92 64 48 36 32 16 and 12.

I think the correct answer is Garfield (Glenwood Springs) and Larimer (Fort Collins-Loveland) from 1952 (they voted for Dewey in 1948.  La Plata (Durango) was a 3rd county but voted for Kerry in 2000.  These were the only 3 counties (other than the 2 Perot counties) to switch between 1992 and 1996, even though the state switched.

[minionofmidas]

AZ - all the counties carried by Bill Clinton in 96 but by Bush in 2000, all since 1996. (The state voted Republican in 1992, but no counties went from Rep 92 to Dem 96 - I think one of the smaller ones even went the other way round.) Without checking.

[bgwah]

King has been a bellwether for Washington for every single election since we've been a state.

[jimrtex]

Map updated to show election of last contrary vote.

TX - Jeff Davis, Kinney, Aransas, Calhoun, Lavaca, Wharton, Jackson, Mills, Brown, Shackleford, Young, Parker, Hunt (1940)

Calhoun voted for Dukakis in 1988.  Shackelford is spelled el rather than le

And it appears that Lampasas and Mills are mixed up.  Mills voted for Clinton in 1992, Carter in 1980, and Nixon in 1960.  Lampasas voted with the state every year since 1940.

This gives us 12 counties since 1940.

Jeff Davis, Kinney, Aransas, Lavaca, Wharton, Jackson, Lampasas, Brown, Shackelford, Young, Parker, Hunt (1940)

Before then, the only Republican to carry Texas was Hoover in 1928.   Hunt, Kinney, Lavaca, and Wharton were carried by Smith, leaving us 8 counties.

Jeff Davis, Aransas, Jackson, Lampasas, Brown, Shackelford, Young, Parker  (1928)

Jeff Davis voted for McKinley in 1900 (and every GOP candidate since its first vote in 1888).  Jackson voted for McKinley in 1896, but only because Bryan was on the ballot as a Populist and a Democrat.  In any case Jackson voted for Harrison in 1892.

This leaves us 6 counties that have been bellwether for the past 29 elections.

Aransas, Lampasas, Brown, Shackelford, Young, Parker  (1892)

Shackelford was formed in 1874 from Jack.  It has been a bellwether since 1876.  I don't think Shackelford can really be considered a successor to Jack, since it was in a frontier area where new counties were being organized (Shackelford is a knight's move away from modern Jack).  In any case, Jack voted for Grant in 1872.

Aransas was split off from Refugio in 1871 (the county seat of Refugio had been moved to Rockport (in present Aransas) and the legislature then split the county, with the inland area becoming Refugio with the county seat in Refugio, and the coastal area becoming Aransas with the recently new county seat of Rockport  Refugio voted Democrat in every election since at least 1856.  Refugio was one of the original Texas counties, but my source does not have results for 1852 or 1848.

Brown County was organized in 1858 and voted for Breckinridge in 1860.  It was a frontier area, so it can't be considered a succesor to any county.

Parker County was organized in 1855 and voted for Buchanan in 1856.  It was in a frontier area.

Young County was organized in 1856 and voted for Buchanan in 1856.  It was in a frontier area.  My source has no results for 1872 (and Grant carried Jack, its neighbor to the east)

Lampasas County was organized in 1856 and voted for Buchanan in 1856.

So you have 6 counties that have been bellwether's since their organization.

Shackelford   1876
Aransas        1872 (1856 for Refugio)
Brown           1860
Lampasas     1856
Parker           1856
Young           1856

A reasonable argument could be made that they have always voted with the state, since Taylor only carried 2 counties in 1848 and Scott carried none in 1852.  On the other hand some of the areas didn't have any voters at all in those early years.

This map shows the party each county voted for the last time they missed.  The 6 bellwether counties are in Yellow.  There are 4 Perot (1992) counties in light green, and two Wallace (1968) counties in dark green.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For elections in general (not just Presidential) recently, San Benito has been a bellwether for California.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Updated (for Vermont)

I'll try to finish all of these by the end of the week but I'm too busy with finals now.

[Alcon]

Very nice project.  Mind putting "at least" or "since creation" for states where maps are not available to the start and the year indicated was the first year voting, respectively?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Very nice project.  Mind putting "at least" or "since creation" for states where maps are not available to the start and the year indicated was the first year voting, respectively?

maybe when I'm done with every state.

btw jim, it was you that provided that list in the old thread for Texas. So what would the updated list be?

[jimrtex]

btw jim, it was you that provided that list in the old thread for Texas. So what would the updated list be?

Did I?

I didn't remember.  What I did was take an outline map and color the counties that voted contrary to the state, and compared my list with the one you had provided and checked the differences.  This time, I missed one that I had before, and had got one that I missed before.  And I would be more likely to mix up Lampasas and Mills since I would have looked at an outline map, rather than actually checking.  I've double checked the twelve that date back to 1940, so the only possible error is if I missed some both times.

For elections before 1940, I used 'The Texas Almanac's Political History of Texas' which has tabular data by county for all presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, including primaries.

Texas had only voted GOP once before 1952, and that was for Hoover in 1928.  4 of the 12 voted for Smith.  Two others voted GOP around the turn of the century.  And the other 6 have voted with the state since they were founded (none date back to 1848).  So my list is:


Shackelford   1876
Aransas        1872 (1856 for Refugio)
Brown           1860
Lampasas     1856
Parker           1856
Young           1856

 
Whether it is all 6, or not just the last 3, I guess depends on your rules.
 
Did you get my changes for Colorado?  It was fairly easy since so few counties tracked the switch from Dem to Rep between 1992 and 1996.

[Bacon King]

It would probably be very easy for someone to find out the bellwether counties for Deleware and Rhode Island..

Edit- Hawaii Bellwethers: Kauai, Kalawao, Maui, Hawaii (1964)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It would probably be very easy for someone to find out the bellwether counties for Deleware and Rhode Island..

Edit- Hawaii Bellwethers: Kauai, Kalawao, Maui, Hawaii (1964)

I did Rhode Island. Interestingly, the bellwether is the smallest county in the state and really is rather unimportant in terms of vote totals in terms of winning the state.

[jimrtex]

AL - Madison, DeKalb, Cleburne, Calhoun, St.Clair, Tuscaloosa, Autauga, Elmore, Pike, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Covington, Escambia, Monroe.

These are 25 the counties that voted for Reagan in 1980, minus Montgomery which switched to Dems since, minus 6 counties carried by Ford in 1976, minus 2 counties carried by Nixon in 1960, and one by Eisenhower in 1956.  Total of 15 (1940).  Since these are Republican-leaning counties, a few may have voted for Hoover in 1928 (who lost by 2.8% statewide).  Otherwise, most may have voted as part of a near Democrat sweep since at least 1900, and perhaps since Reconstruction.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Guilford county been a bellwether state for a while.. until 2004 when Kerry took it.

[WalterMitty]

Guilford county been a bellwether state for a while.. until 2004 when Kerry took it.

im pretty sure clinton won guilford at least once.

[jimrtex]

KS - Bourbon, Lyon, Ottawa, Saline (1892, edge of Atlas)

[minionofmidas]

Maine -
Piscataquis, Washington Rep 2004
Lincoln, Penobscot, Waldo Rep 2000
Somerset Ind 1992
Androscoggin, Cumberland Dem 1980
Kennebec, York Dem 1976
Hancock, Knox Rep 1968
That leaves Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Sagadahoc all going back to at least 1952. For any paying member to continue.

[minionofmidas]

Guilford county been a bellwether state for a while.. until 2004 when Kerry took it.

im pretty sure clinton won guilford at least once.

Twice. Guilford had been a federal bellwether since 1964 before 2004 (or 2000, depending how you count. And if you think Nixon won the popular vote in 1960, then I don't know quite how long it's been a bellwether.)

[minionofmidas]

New Hampshire -
Belknap, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham - Rep 2004
Cheshire, Grafton, Merrimack, Strafford - Dem 2000
Coos - Dem 1976.

That leaves Sullivan, which has been a bellwether for the state since at least 1956.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Before 1964 Aroostook hadn't voted Democratic in any election that Dave has data for.
Sagadahoc voted for FDR in '44 and '40.
Oxford voted for TR in '12.
Franklin '' ''

So a tie between Oxford and Franklin

[minionofmidas]

Mississippi -
Adams, Benton, Bolivar, Claiborne, Clay, Coahoma, Hinds, Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Jasper, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Leflore, Marshall, Noxubee, Quitman, Sharkey, Sunflower, Tallahatchie, Tunica, Washington, Wilkinson - Dem 2004
Panola, Yalobusha - Dem 2000
Alcorn, Amite, Chickasaw, Copiah, Lawrence, Montgomery, Pike, Walthall (by one vote ), Yazoo - Dem 1996
Tishomingo - Dem 1992
Attala, Calhoun, Franklin, Grenada, Itawamba, Lafayette, Leake, Lee, Madison, Marion, Monroe, Pontotoc, Prentiss, Tate, Tippah, Union, Winston - Dem 1980 (Clarke a tie)
Choctaw, Clarke, Forrest, Grenada, Harrison, Jackson, Jones,  Lamar, Lauderdale,  Lincoln, Lowndes, Newton, Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Warren - Rep 1976
DeSoto, Hancock, Neshoba - national Dem 1960
That leaves Carroll, Covington, George, Greene, Pearl River, Perry, Stone, Wayne, Webster, bellwethers since at least 1960.

[minionofmidas]

Before 1964 Aroostook hadn't voted Democratic in any election that Dave has data for.
Sagadahoc voted for FDR in '44 and '40.
Oxford voted for TR in '12.
Franklin '' ''

So a tie between Oxford and Franklin

Neighboring counties.

Missouri - Jackson, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Louis, Saint Louis City, Dem 2004
Boone, Buchanan, Clay (by one vote), Jefferson, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Ray, Saline, Washington, Dem 2000
Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Barry, Barton, Bollinger, Butler, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Cass, Cedar, Christian, Cole, Cooper, Dade, Dallas, Dent, Douglas, Gasconade, Greene, Harrison, Holt, Howell, Jasper, Johnson, Laclede, Lawrence, McDonald, Maries,  Miller, Moniteau, Morgan, Newton, Osage, Ozark, Perry, Pettis, Phelps, Platte, Polk, Pulaski, Putnam, Saint Charles, Stoddard, Stone, Taney, Texas, Warren, Webster, Wright - Rep 1996
Audrain, Chariton, Clark, Clinton, DeKalb, Dunklin, Gentry, Howard, Iron, Knox, Lewis, Linn, Marion, Mercer, Monroe, Nodaway, Oregon, Pike, Ralls, Randolph, Reynolds, Saint Francois, Shannon, Shelby, Worth - Dem 1988
Benton, Callaway, Franklin, Grundy, Hickory, Lafayette, Montgomery - Rep 1976
Scott, Dem 1968
Bates, Kramer, Carroll,  Crawford, Daviess, Henry, Livingston, Macon, Madison,  Ripley, Saint Clair, Schuyler, Scotland, Sullivan, Vernon, Wayne - Rep 1960.
Lincoln - state bellwether since at least 1960
1960 election was very close, and Nixon won far more counties than Kennedy. I think the election was polarized on basis of religion in the state. Still, this is an odd result.

[WalterMitty]

Guilford county been a bellwether state for a while.. until 2004 when Kerry took it.

im pretty sure clinton won guilford at least once.

Twice. Guilford had been a federal bellwether since 1964 before 2004 (or 2000, depending how you count. And if you think Nixon won the popular vote in 1960, then I don't know quite how long it's been a bellwether.)

oh wait, im confused.  i thought this thread was about state bellwethers.

[minionofmidas]

Guilford county been a bellwether state for a while.. until 2004 when Kerry took it.

im pretty sure clinton won guilford at least once.

Twice. Guilford had been a federal bellwether since 1964 before 2004 (or 2000, depending how you count. And if you think Nixon won the popular vote in 1960, then I don't know quite how long it's been a bellwether.)

oh wait, im confused.  i thought this thread was about state bellwethers.

It is. Josh was confused, or maybe he just threw out an only-remotely-related comment about his home county.

[Kevinstat]

Maine -
Piscataquis, Washington Rep 2004
Lincoln, Penobscot, Waldo Rep 2000
Somerset Ind 1992
Androscoggin, Cumberland Dem 1980
Kennebec, York Dem 1976
Hancock, Knox Rep 1968
That leaves Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Sagadahoc all going back to at least 1952. For any paying member to continue.

I'll gladly oblige.

Following the same notation as Lewis (County name, party and year of the last Presidential election when the county went for a different party's candidate than the state as a whole)...

Sagadahoc Dem 1944
Aroostook, Franklin and Oxford Prog. (T.R.) 1912

So Aroostook, Franklin and Oxford Counties have all been carried by the same Presidential candidate as the state from 1916 on.  So in Maine, these three counties share bellweather status not because they have an unblemished record of supporting the statewide winner in Presidential elections, but because their last blemishes occured at the same time.