Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)
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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in the Parliamentary election?
#1
PNL
#2
PSD
#3
USR
#4
PRO-ALDE
#5
PMP
#6
UDMR
#7
AUR
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Author Topic: Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)  (Read 75191 times)
RGM2609
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« Reply #525 on: September 06, 2021, 01:53:13 PM »

USR Ministers have finally resigned from the government. This forces Citu to come around October 20th to Parliament to request its confidence again, unless a motion of no confidence passes until then.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #526 on: September 06, 2021, 02:14:56 PM »

As amply demonstrated by the Bulgarian parties, to expect rationality in politics is somewhat irrational. However, as hard as I try, I fail to see what's in it for PSD to prop up an ailing Citu government. Surely even if they were to revive USL (and I can't see this being popular with the PSD rank-and-file), they will demand the prime ministership, maybe not for Ciolacu, but for somebody associated with the party - especially with the EU recovery plan funds coming round soon-ish.

You mentioned a potential Dragnea comeback - is it realistic?
Their main reason for existing. Money. PSD Mayors, County Chairmans, and businessmen would make good use out of the 50 billion about to be distributed completely arbitrarily by the Ministry of Development (this is the thing for which USR left). Also, PSD would have some control over the government, sabotaging it at every move while filling the lower ranks of the bureaucratic apparatus with cronies. The alternative would be either PNL governing by itself indefinitely or Citu going away and being replaced by someone better (that is a given because anyone would be better), meaning the government may start recovering. However, the electoral costs of such a move and the boost it would give AUR and other splinters (would it not be hilarious if both Dragnea and Ponta come back?) is too risky for them. Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money. But this may be too rational, as you have said.

There are a lot of rumors that Dragnea, together with one of the political stars of our country, former Senate Chairman Teodor Melescanu, will create a party called ApR (Alliance for Romania), reviving the old party of Melescanu from 2000. Even Ciolacu warned PSDers in some meetings about this possibility. I do not know whether it will be in this form or this year, but knowing him, I expect him to get active again soon.

What would that party be like?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #527 on: September 06, 2021, 05:29:37 PM »

As amply demonstrated by the Bulgarian parties, to expect rationality in politics is somewhat irrational. However, as hard as I try, I fail to see what's in it for PSD to prop up an ailing Citu government. Surely even if they were to revive USL (and I can't see this being popular with the PSD rank-and-file), they will demand the prime ministership, maybe not for Ciolacu, but for somebody associated with the party - especially with the EU recovery plan funds coming round soon-ish.

You mentioned a potential Dragnea comeback - is it realistic?
Their main reason for existing. Money. PSD Mayors, County Chairmans, and businessmen would make good use out of the 50 billion about to be distributed completely arbitrarily by the Ministry of Development (this is the thing for which USR left). Also, PSD would have some control over the government, sabotaging it at every move while filling the lower ranks of the bureaucratic apparatus with cronies. The alternative would be either PNL governing by itself indefinitely or Citu going away and being replaced by someone better (that is a given because anyone would be better), meaning the government may start recovering. However, the electoral costs of such a move and the boost it would give AUR and other splinters (would it not be hilarious if both Dragnea and Ponta come back?) is too risky for them. Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money. But this may be too rational, as you have said.

There are a lot of rumors that Dragnea, together with one of the political stars of our country, former Senate Chairman Teodor Melescanu, will create a party called ApR (Alliance for Romania), reviving the old party of Melescanu from 2000. Even Ciolacu warned PSDers in some meetings about this possibility. I do not know whether it will be in this form or this year, but knowing him, I expect him to get active again soon.

What would that party be like?
The original ApR was an attempt by Melescanu to jump on the high horse, as the numbers showed him to be respected by the people, and save Romania. In the process, he took a lot of ex-PSDers and various politicians with no ideology in his party, as they thought it would get them far. Until it flopped. In its attempt to please everyone, it convinced no one, and the high popularity of Melescanu was just a mirage and no one actually trusted him. After missing the threshold, this party with no ideology got absorbed by PNL and from then it became a footnote in history.

I doubt the new Dragnea party will be like that. Knowing him, he would try to create a more paranoid, more gone-off-the-deep-end version of his former party PSD. It would try to hide its corruption and imposture with cheap nationalism and conspiracy theories. With PSD so openly willing to make deals with the enemies, it has an opening among the PSD voters (mostly old people) who are not enthused by Ciolacu and view the current leadership as weaklings but AUR as too unstable and groundbreaking.

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RGM2609
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« Reply #528 on: September 07, 2021, 05:14:43 AM »

So, after PSD and PNL, obviously in no connection with each other, have skipped the meeting to send the motion to the floor yet again, Orban has announced that blocking it in the Bureau for longer is unconstitutional and he will unilateraly send it to the floor. PNL is likely to contest the decision of its own president at the pro-PSD Constitutional Court. However, PSD activists and supporters are getting very angry already, and PSD may have to reconsider its decisions soon enough.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #529 on: September 07, 2021, 05:28:24 AM »

So today the unofficial fight for the leadership of PNL is now public. Prime Minister Citu has declared that he will run against current leader Ludovic Orban during the Congress, which will occur in September.

It is for now a toss-up. Ludovic Orban may be a slight favorite due to how long he has been in the party leadership (meaning by now the local structures are stacked with proteges and loyalists), an advantage expressed by the fact that out of 42 county leaders, 36 had endorsed him at the beginning of the year. However, that seemingly huge advantage is very vulnerable. Many of those county leaders are only acting and could be replaced at any time, their support may not translate into actual votes from the county delegates or they themselves may change their mind under the prospect of more funding from the government.

The PM has support from the anti-Orban wing of the party, Ministers, various power brokers in the party, and the influential Mayor of Cluj Emil Boc. To that one may add the unofficial support from President Iohannis, who despises Orban. If necessary, Iohannis could always make his will known to everyone before Congress, and it is unlikely PNL would disobey him.

In the first months of the year, this race appeared to be a coronation for Orban - the discontent for the Government was high even within the party. But now that the third wave of the pandemic is over, the country is re-opening, the economy is recovering and the coalition is stable - the gap between the two candidates is starting to close quickly. All bets are off for now, but contested Congresses are rare in Romania (the last one - in 2013, killed PDL). There will probably be a clear favorite by September.

September is also the month when USR is having a Congress which is also, as of right now, very contested. This will be a crucial month for the governing parties.

Why does President Iohannis hate Orban?
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Beagle
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« Reply #530 on: September 07, 2021, 06:00:51 AM »

The alternative would be either [b]PNL governing by itself indefinitely[/b] or Citu going away and being replaced by someone better (that is a given because anyone would be better), meaning the government may start recovering. However, the electoral costs of such a move and the boost it would give AUR and other splinters (would it not be hilarious if both Dragnea and Ponta come back?) is too risky for them. Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money. But this may be too rational, as you have said.

That what I don't understand, though - once the motion of no confidence passes, PNL can govern indefinitely in the way that you pictured quite vividly here:
Citu and the PNL Ministers flailing around the Victoria Palace, unable to do anything while getting blamed by the people for the mounting crises

PSD have every reason to demand that they are the ones to determine how the 50 billion are to be distributed - they are the largest party, they can also call on AUR* in ways that PNL presumably can't (at least in order to keep up appearances), they are also apparently better than USR in the eyes of Iohannis.

* btw, is it conceivable at present that AUR and UDMR both support a government in some way?

Somehow I doubt that there is actual clamoring for octogenarian Melescanu's comeback and Dragnea will presumably attract only those PSD-ers who for one reason or another are out of the more lucrative positions, on the fringes of the party and/or are generally undesirable for the current leadership. And history shows that a party of, for and by the 'losers' in a struggle for party control generally flops miserably - unless, of course, Ciolacu gifts them a zombie USL to attack.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #531 on: September 07, 2021, 06:35:23 AM »

The alternative would be either [b]PNL governing by itself indefinitely[/b] or Citu going away and being replaced by someone better (that is a given because anyone would be better), meaning the government may start recovering. However, the electoral costs of such a move and the boost it would give AUR and other splinters (would it not be hilarious if both Dragnea and Ponta come back?) is too risky for them. Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money. But this may be too rational, as you have said.

That what I don't understand, though - once the motion of no confidence passes, PNL can govern indefinitely in the way that you pictured quite vividly here:
Citu and the PNL Ministers flailing around the Victoria Palace, unable to do anything while getting blamed by the people for the mounting crises

PSD have every reason to demand that they are the ones to determine how the 50 billion are to be distributed - they are the largest party, they can also call on AUR* in ways that PNL presumably can't (at least in order to keep up appearances), they are also apparently better than USR in the eyes of Iohannis.

* btw, is it conceivable at present that AUR and UDMR both support a government in some way?

Somehow I doubt that there is actual clamoring for octogenarian Melescanu's comeback and Dragnea will presumably attract only those PSD-ers who for one reason or another are out of the more lucrative positions, on the fringes of the party and/or are generally undesirable for the current leadership. And history shows that a party of, for and by the 'losers' in a struggle for party control generally flops miserably - unless, of course, Ciolacu gifts them a zombie USL to attack.
So, the thing about the 50 billion is this - the proposal has already been passed through an Emergency Ordinance, bypassing Parliament, and will be applied unilaterally by the Development Ministry. PNL will have absolutely no reason to give PSD anything out of that money unless PSD helps them stay in power at least until after the PNL Congress. I agree that any further cooperation after that is unlikely. But honestly, do you think PNLers in government will care that PSD is the largest party when they award that money? I have my doubts. PSD needs to offer something to PNL in exchange for that.

What I think Iohannis is going for here is - keep Citu in power at all costs until he defeats Orban in the leadership contest and then sack Citu too and rebuild the coalition with someone else as Prime Minister. Thus, Iohannis will have gotten rid of Orban and created a semi-stable government again. And while Citu could pose resistance as a PNL leader, I doubt that many people would take his side over Iohannis. However, if Citu is kicked out before the Congress, then Orban will likely win and then demand to be Prime Minister again, which would be hard for Iohannis to refuse given how much momentum Orban will have after such an upset victory.

UDMR would be willing to work with anyone and everyone, and that includes AUR. However, they realize that for as long as Iohannis is President, PNL will be in power, which is why they have attached themselves to them.

Yes, Dragnea faces some long odds with his prospective new party (though I think that Ciolacu basically leaking the plans to the press has delayed its launch and perhaps caused brand modifications). And I do not think many PSDers will defect. As Nastase, Geoana, Ponta, and Dancila have proven before, PSD loves its leader until he or she is not the leader anymore. It depends on the next actions of the PSD leadership, but seeing the current situation, it could only be a 5% party like PMP, PRO and ALDE used to be.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #532 on: September 07, 2021, 06:44:18 AM »

So today the unofficial fight for the leadership of PNL is now public. Prime Minister Citu has declared that he will run against current leader Ludovic Orban during the Congress, which will occur in September.

It is for now a toss-up. Ludovic Orban may be a slight favorite due to how long he has been in the party leadership (meaning by now the local structures are stacked with proteges and loyalists), an advantage expressed by the fact that out of 42 county leaders, 36 had endorsed him at the beginning of the year. However, that seemingly huge advantage is very vulnerable. Many of those county leaders are only acting and could be replaced at any time, their support may not translate into actual votes from the county delegates or they themselves may change their mind under the prospect of more funding from the government.

The PM has support from the anti-Orban wing of the party, Ministers, various power brokers in the party, and the influential Mayor of Cluj Emil Boc. To that one may add the unofficial support from President Iohannis, who despises Orban. If necessary, Iohannis could always make his will known to everyone before Congress, and it is unlikely PNL would disobey him.

In the first months of the year, this race appeared to be a coronation for Orban - the discontent for the Government was high even within the party. But now that the third wave of the pandemic is over, the country is re-opening, the economy is recovering and the coalition is stable - the gap between the two candidates is starting to close quickly. All bets are off for now, but contested Congresses are rare in Romania (the last one - in 2013, killed PDL). There will probably be a clear favorite by September.

September is also the month when USR is having a Congress which is also, as of right now, very contested. This will be a crucial month for the governing parties.

Why does President Iohannis hate Orban?
Orban is the main intra-party rival of Iohannis and the presidential loyalists and the only one who has been able to form an alternative power base in PNL. In fact, conflicts between Orban and Iohannis date from as far back as 2014, when, after winning the presidential election, Iohannis tried to impose his protege Alina Gorghiu as the leader of PNL and was opposed by Orban. Then, in 2017, Orban won by defeating the presidential lackey Busoi. The two had put their fight aside for a while, but after Orban became PM, he proved uncontrollable and did whatever he wanted with no regard for Iohannis. Citu proved himself to be much more submissive and any new Prime Minister, other than Orban, would lack the authority inside the party to disobey Iohannis.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #533 on: September 07, 2021, 06:56:59 AM »

So today the unofficial fight for the leadership of PNL is now public. Prime Minister Citu has declared that he will run against current leader Ludovic Orban during the Congress, which will occur in September.

It is for now a toss-up. Ludovic Orban may be a slight favorite due to how long he has been in the party leadership (meaning by now the local structures are stacked with proteges and loyalists), an advantage expressed by the fact that out of 42 county leaders, 36 had endorsed him at the beginning of the year. However, that seemingly huge advantage is very vulnerable. Many of those county leaders are only acting and could be replaced at any time, their support may not translate into actual votes from the county delegates or they themselves may change their mind under the prospect of more funding from the government.

The PM has support from the anti-Orban wing of the party, Ministers, various power brokers in the party, and the influential Mayor of Cluj Emil Boc. To that one may add the unofficial support from President Iohannis, who despises Orban. If necessary, Iohannis could always make his will known to everyone before Congress, and it is unlikely PNL would disobey him.

In the first months of the year, this race appeared to be a coronation for Orban - the discontent for the Government was high even within the party. But now that the third wave of the pandemic is over, the country is re-opening, the economy is recovering and the coalition is stable - the gap between the two candidates is starting to close quickly. All bets are off for now, but contested Congresses are rare in Romania (the last one - in 2013, killed PDL). There will probably be a clear favorite by September.

September is also the month when USR is having a Congress which is also, as of right now, very contested. This will be a crucial month for the governing parties.

Why does President Iohannis hate Orban?
Orban is the main intra-party rival of Iohannis and the presidential loyalists and the only one who has been able to form an alternative power base in PNL. In fact, conflicts between Orban and Iohannis date from as far back as 2014, when, after winning the presidential election, Iohannis tried to impose his protege Alina Gorghiu as the leader of PNL and was opposed by Orban. Then, in 2017, Orban won by defeating the presidential lackey Busoi. The two had put their fight aside for a while, but after Orban became PM, he proved uncontrollable and did whatever he wanted with no regard for Iohannis. Citu proved himself to be much more submissive and any new Prime Minister, other than Orban, would lack the authority inside the party to disobey Iohannis.

Who do you prefer between Iohannis and Orban yourself?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #534 on: September 07, 2021, 07:52:39 AM »

So today the unofficial fight for the leadership of PNL is now public. Prime Minister Citu has declared that he will run against current leader Ludovic Orban during the Congress, which will occur in September.

It is for now a toss-up. Ludovic Orban may be a slight favorite due to how long he has been in the party leadership (meaning by now the local structures are stacked with proteges and loyalists), an advantage expressed by the fact that out of 42 county leaders, 36 had endorsed him at the beginning of the year. However, that seemingly huge advantage is very vulnerable. Many of those county leaders are only acting and could be replaced at any time, their support may not translate into actual votes from the county delegates or they themselves may change their mind under the prospect of more funding from the government.

The PM has support from the anti-Orban wing of the party, Ministers, various power brokers in the party, and the influential Mayor of Cluj Emil Boc. To that one may add the unofficial support from President Iohannis, who despises Orban. If necessary, Iohannis could always make his will known to everyone before Congress, and it is unlikely PNL would disobey him.

In the first months of the year, this race appeared to be a coronation for Orban - the discontent for the Government was high even within the party. But now that the third wave of the pandemic is over, the country is re-opening, the economy is recovering and the coalition is stable - the gap between the two candidates is starting to close quickly. All bets are off for now, but contested Congresses are rare in Romania (the last one - in 2013, killed PDL). There will probably be a clear favorite by September.

September is also the month when USR is having a Congress which is also, as of right now, very contested. This will be a crucial month for the governing parties.

Why does President Iohannis hate Orban?
Orban is the main intra-party rival of Iohannis and the presidential loyalists and the only one who has been able to form an alternative power base in PNL. In fact, conflicts between Orban and Iohannis date from as far back as 2014, when, after winning the presidential election, Iohannis tried to impose his protege Alina Gorghiu as the leader of PNL and was opposed by Orban. Then, in 2017, Orban won by defeating the presidential lackey Busoi. The two had put their fight aside for a while, but after Orban became PM, he proved uncontrollable and did whatever he wanted with no regard for Iohannis. Citu proved himself to be much more submissive and any new Prime Minister, other than Orban, would lack the authority inside the party to disobey Iohannis.

Who do you prefer between Iohannis and Orban yourself?
Eh. As a person, Iohannis. He has proven himself to be relatively competent in the offices he occupied and is actually qualified to be a high-ranking politician, unlike Orban who has been a politician with little to no accomplishments, moving around from office to office and running for the PNL leadership at every Congress. Considering the current political situation, however, I think Orban would be a far better choice because he is a better bet at holding the coalition together than Iohannis through a puppet Prime Minister would be. After all, it is probable that Iohannis is behind all of the Ministerial sackings which caused USR to leave. 
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RGM2609
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« Reply #535 on: September 08, 2021, 10:52:45 AM »

So, after PSD and PNL, obviously in no connection with each other, have skipped the meeting to send the motion to the floor yet again, Orban has announced that blocking it in the Bureau for longer is unconstitutional and he will unilaterally send it to the floor. PNL is likely to contest the decision of its own president at the pro-PSD Constitutional Court. However, PSD activists and supporters are getting very angry already, and PSD may have to reconsider its decisions soon enough.
So this has actually happened, and Orban has bypassed the Permanent Bureau together with the Senate Chairwoman Anca Dragu (USR). The motion of no confidence is now going to be read on the floor tomorrow and be voted on next week. Citu has contested this decision by Orban to the pro-PSD Constitutional Court and it is entirely possible that the Court nullifies the motion after it is approved. So far, the Court has not announced when exactly will it decide whether Orban has acted constitutionally.

Expectedly, the first response Citu had towards these actions by Orban was, according to political sources, trying to revoke him as Speaker of the Chamber only to find out that Orban is not one of his Ministers and he can not just dismiss him. Lol.

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RGM2609
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« Reply #536 on: September 08, 2021, 04:44:53 PM »

A bit of a less important post but just to understand the sheer level of psychopathy we are dealing with from our beloved Prime Minister, here is how he justified his decision to sack USR officials on every level of the government to open the places up for PNLers (this is a direct quote, just to be clear)-

”What if AUR has negotiated with USR+ for this vaccination campaign to be slowed down? AUR is an anti-vaxxer party. I can not take the risk for this vaccination campaign to be sabotaged. I will never risk the health of Romanians.”
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Beagle
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« Reply #537 on: September 09, 2021, 03:11:09 AM »


So, the thing about the 50 billion is this - the proposal has already been passed through an Emergency Ordinance, bypassing Parliament, and will be applied unilaterally by the Development Ministry.

... well, that's one way to distribute 50 billion, I guess.

I see no compelling reason for the parties who want to prolong the government's life to take part in the sitting. Is there a quorum requirement for the vote of no confidence?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #538 on: September 09, 2021, 04:25:01 AM »


So, the thing about the 50 billion is this - the proposal has already been passed through an Emergency Ordinance, bypassing Parliament, and will be applied unilaterally by the Development Ministry.

... well, that's one way to distribute 50 billion, I guess.

I see no compelling reason for the parties who want to prolong the government's life to take part in the sitting. Is there a quorum requirement for the vote of no confidence?
No. But the vote has been delayed today, as the new USL has finally decided to come to the Permanent Bureau, and they delayed the vote until after the Court makes a decision. So it will only be read on the floor today and then they'll wait for the Court. They would do literally anything to vote after September 25th.

With that being said, PSD would completely deligitimise itself if they skipped the vote and would cause a total revolt from their rank-and-file
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RGM2609
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« Reply #539 on: September 09, 2021, 08:56:23 AM »

The motion of no confidence has been read on the floor today and a proposal to vote on it in 3 days has been rejected with the votes of the new USL. Nothing extraordinary here, but something interesting did happen. A whole circus erupted after the lieutenant of the Prime Minister Florin Roman, holding the place for Speaker Ludovic Orban who was absent, has literally tried to confiscate the floor, and refused to the Senate President speak or lead the procedures. Members of Parliament literally had to come and pull the chair from under him, while he continued to try to lead the session and literally held the microphone tight. Eventually, they managed to kick him out of the Presidium and he left the Chamber in frustration. Jesus.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #540 on: September 16, 2021, 11:12:45 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2021, 11:20:23 AM by RGM2609 »

First of all sorry for the inactivity, I have been very busy, but I will try to post semi-regular updates from now on.

Anyway, Citu has won. The Constitutional Court, controlled by Ciyu's ally PSD, has delayed a decision on the motion of no confidence until after the PNL Congress. Meaning Citu will be a sitting Prime Minister when he is on the ballot against Orban. It would seem as if Citu's high-ranking supporters, who were bribed into joining his cause in the first place, are sticking with him even as they realised he is a liability, worried that Orban will purge them from PNL if he wins. Meanwhile, PNL members mostly support Orban, but the delegates are constantly purged and reportedly forced to send a photo of their ballots. So democratic.

The next steps are unclear. If Citu wins the Congress, it is possible that Iohannis will purge him too now that he doesn't need him anymore and just nominate another Prime Minister and rebuild the coalition (through if Citu's wing keeps threatening USR to take away important Ministers from them even if they return, eh...). But if Citu stays on and isn't pushed aside, a minority government is the only way forward.

Also, Dragnea is making his first public appearance this Sunday on the fittingly-named show, the Backrooms of the Deep State, where it is possible that he will announce his new party. This is the worst possible time for PSD, given that they have been functioning in a revived USL for the past two weeks.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #541 on: September 19, 2021, 04:18:30 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2021, 04:27:20 PM by RGM2609 »

So the highly anticipated interview with Dragnea has finally taken place - he did (sort of) announce a new party, called the Alliance for the Motherland. He used the two hours of the interview to campaign for it, being let by his former chief of staff Anca Alexandrescu, now a TV host interviewing her former boss because of course, to rant and express his paranoid delusions freely. I still think he has a real opening given how weak PSD has been at keeping in touch with their own base. Just to get a sense of what we are dealing with here, he claimed that Romania is led by Iohannis as a dictator, that his goal is to sell off the Romanian economy to unidentified foreign actors, that said unidentified foreign actors have been behind all investigations into corrupt politicians like himself, that PSD is infiltrated by the Deep State and its agents and that PSD has been begging around the Embassies, promising to help Europeans steal Romanian resources. Jesus.

Also, it is worth keeping in mind that legally Dragnea can't get involved in the new party, at least in any official capacity, through if judging by tonight, that won't stop him that much.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #542 on: September 23, 2021, 07:24:19 AM »

Online vote of all members for USR+ leader:

Dacian Ciolos - 46%
Dan Barna - 43,9%
Irinel Darau - 10,1%

This is highly unexpected, as it seems like Ciolos has been able to make major inroads among former USR members. There will now be a second round between Ciolos and Barna.
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« Reply #543 on: September 24, 2021, 03:06:19 PM »

Tomorrow is the day that paralyzed the country, left it unprepared in the face of the new COVID surge, created a political crisis that will be very difficult to solve, and brought PNL back to 20%. Tomorrow, as 5000 PNL members, possibly in violation of coronavirus restrictions, will flock to Bucharest to cast their ballots, Romanians will finally find whether Florin Citu has succeeded in ousting Ludovic Orban or whether he will forever go down as a one-time embarrassment.

Citu is the favorite. As if the backing of over 30 PNL county chairpersons, bought over with a lot of government funding and promises of higher offices, was not enough, now President Iohannis has reportedly started to actively campaign for the Prime Minister and will come to the PNL Congress to, his own words, encourage Citu to continue to govern. With Orban being more and more unhinged in his speeches, out-right telling that PNL does not owe Iohannis sht, on the contrary (which is true but still), the content of the big Iohannis speech from tomorrow is a mystery for no one.

If PNL members were to vote as USR members do, Orban would have probably won over 70%. That fact is the only thing that keeps the Orban campaign going - the hope that the delegates, within the privacy of the voting booth, will vote for who they want and not who their bosses want.

Anyway, factionalism has grown so much that a party split is not impossible, though still unlikely. If Citu wins and continues to govern in a more or less openly reunified USL, Orban would have all reasons to just leave and there are reportedly 50 MPs willing to follow suit. If Orban wins, the intra-party purges could get so bad that a lot of people which now support Citu would have to leave to save their own political careers. It all depends on the wisdom of the winner and what stance President Iohannis will take. Right now, advantage Citu. But if Orban wins it would be the funniest thing I have witnessed in my whole life so I am still hoping.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #544 on: September 25, 2021, 07:24:21 AM »

This huge national embarrassment is coming now to a close as the 5000 PNLers who shamelessly violated pandemic restrictions in the center of Bucharest while the economy is suffering because of their absurd rules are now finally casting their ballots. The whole Congress was a mess, as the delegates shouted loudly at one another and some of them got bored of the speeches and went outside to eat steak. Anyway, the speech by Prime Minister Citu was heckled by some loud opponents who demanded his resignation. Orban basically had to intervene and tell delegates to STFU so that Citu could go on with his speech. The reaction in the hall seems to point out to stronger support for Orban than expected, but that does not mean much given how many delegates will be forced to vote for whoever their bosses tell them to and then photograph or show the ballots in order to prove it.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #545 on: September 25, 2021, 10:31:50 AM »

The counting still goes on, but the outcome is already clear - Florin Citu has managed to oust Ludovic Orban and will now become the new PNL leader. It was to be expected, though it is also absolutely the wrong decision for the future of PNL and I am sure they will end up regretting it - already after only 9 months of being governed by the genius in office, PNL is at 20%, their members are booed by the population and they got stuck in a political crisis. But I suppose the short-term benefits were more important to the leaders of PNL.

Now we go back to square one. USR refuses to come back to the government if Citu does not leave the Prime Ministership and PSD is still hedging its bets, especially now that Dragnea is looming at large. I will update you on that front in a few days once the political scene has been rearranged following this result.

On the actual PNL leadership, I would bet my house that by the end of 2022, Citu will not be PNL leader anymore and a Congress has already been organized to replace him. Once he loses the Prime Ministership (and he will), the PNL leaders and Iohannis will get rid of him as quickly as possible.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #546 on: September 25, 2021, 10:37:45 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2021, 10:43:15 AM by RGM2609 »

Just as I was posting this, the final results were published -

Florin Citu - 2878 votes, 60.2%
Ludovic Orban - 1898 votes, 39.8%

This is not a bad result for Orban, who if judging by the endorsements and the resource disadvantage, should have gotten 25% at best. His career lives to see another day and there are reasonable scenarios in which he comes back. I would say that he probably will not split from PNL and form a new party as the result is too low for that and he will just regroup his ranks and wait for the next opportunity to run for the PNL leadership. After all, he lost 3 times before winning it in the first place.

Also, Orban in his concession speech - from now on, between me and Klaus Iohannis there will be no partnership. And he is resigning from the Speakership of the Chamber, so the political crisis is only deepening as there is probably no majority to elect his replacement.
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Mike88
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« Reply #547 on: September 25, 2021, 10:49:37 AM »

Quite chaotic, indeed. Although, it's normal for party congresses to be a bit chaotic if the parties have several wings and so on.

What's the likelihood of a snap election?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #548 on: September 25, 2021, 11:01:11 AM »

Quite chaotic, indeed. Although, it's normal for party congresses to be a bit chaotic if the parties have several wings and so on.

What's the likelihood of a snap election?
A snap election is very unlikely to happen because, as discussed earlier in the thread, it is impossible to call one without a cooperative President. Iohannis would do anything to prevent a snap election. The only way in which a snap election could be called is if the Parliament recalled him.
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Mike88
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« Reply #549 on: September 25, 2021, 11:03:58 AM »

Quite chaotic, indeed. Although, it's normal for party congresses to be a bit chaotic if the parties have several wings and so on.

What's the likelihood of a snap election?
A snap election is very unlikely to happen because, as discussed earlier in the thread, it is impossible to call one without a cooperative President. Iohannis would do anything to prevent a snap election. The only way in which a snap election could be called is if the Parliament recalled him.

Right. So if USR continues to refuse to cooperate with PNL, do you think the PSD will likely comeback? That would be quite a turnaround of things.
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