Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)
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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in the Parliamentary election?
#1
PNL
#2
PSD
#3
USR
#4
PRO-ALDE
#5
PMP
#6
UDMR
#7
AUR
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)  (Read 75187 times)
RGM2609
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« Reply #625 on: November 15, 2021, 01:08:50 PM »

It seems like PSD and PNL have agreed to have Prime Ministers by rotation and that the Ministry of Finances will go to the party who doesn't have the PM. The only obstacle towards this plan moving forward is, of course, Citu. PSD has clearly stated that they won't accept Citu as Prime Minister so PNL has to propose someone else. In that case, Iohannis would likely impose his lackey Nicolae Ciuca. Desperate to preserve his power inside the party, Citu is trying to have Ciolacu take over the Prime Ministership first just so he doesn't share Orban's fate (gets his authority stripped away by another PNL Prime Minister). However given that his approval is under 10% and most other politicians detest him, it is hard to see Citu's manuevers going far.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #626 on: November 18, 2021, 12:09:26 PM »

Well, as expected Iohannis has forced out Citu following a few days of PNL infighting, and now Ciuca is the PNL proposal for Prime Minister. The negotiations still face an obstacle in PSD, who demand that they are the first to nominate a Prime Minister and might get Citu's covert support in negotiations. However, if nothing major changes, a PSD-PNL government should be invested in the next few weeks.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #627 on: November 20, 2021, 05:50:20 AM »

My life has been a mess lately, but I finally have time for a more throughout update -

PNL is once again the greatest loser of the ongoing negotiations, mostly because of the incompetence of its current leadership, which has backed itself into a corner. In exchange for granting PNL the Prime Ministership (*granting it to a guy who has little to no connection to PNL and only got selected because he is a lackey of Klaus Iohannis), PSD is demanding all the important, big-budget Ministries (i.e. the Ministries which could be stolen from). Because Iohannis ordered them to keep the Justice Ministry to allow him to name whatever prosecutors he wants, PNL has almost certainly lost the Ministry of Public Finances and the ability to control the budgetary process. PSD is also demanding the Transportation Ministry and the European Funds (both of which are huge piggybanks). The Regional Development Ministry, which controls grants to local authorities, is demanded by UDMR, who threatens not to join the coalition otherwise. So basically PNL will be left with nothing to steal and will only control Ministries in which Klaus Iohannis has a direct interest. Predictably, this made PNLers greatly upset, and the party, already on its toes following the Congress, the recreation of USL, and the whole mess involving Ludovic Orban is now in flames. If PNL does not manage to negotiate its way into at least one of the four piggybanks it could cause a collapse, with unpredictable consequences. So we are all keeping an eye on these negotiations as they are the last hurdle before the formation of the new government.
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PetrSokol
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« Reply #628 on: November 20, 2021, 06:36:53 AM »

Is there any realistic reason why is Iohannis doing all these steps?
Was the coalition with USR rally so bad for PNL?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #629 on: November 20, 2021, 06:59:54 AM »

Is there any realistic reason why is Iohannis doing all these steps?
Was the coalition with USR rally so bad for PNL?
It was in the sense that USR was a (mild) threat to the established order of things in government (i.e. governing is used primarily for personal benefit, irrespective of party label, the huge bureaucracy is to be protected and the officials are named on anything other than competence). USR was obviously too weak to change this system which was cemented since the Revolution and maybe even before that, but it still managed to annoy it and irritate it, so they decided to end them before they became a threat. Even more so, USR actually wants to end politician-advantageous policies, like the Special Section or the Mayors being elected in one round, while PNL only wants to posture against them when convenient. PNL really has much more in common with PSD when it comes to interests and priorities.

As far as Iohannis personally is concerned, rumors abound that he wants to be the Prime Minister of a renewed USL government after his term expires in 2024. It is a bit risky to assume that PSD and PNL will continue governing together until then, that they will have a majority in 2024 or that PNL will even get over the threshold, but after this crisis, it is not like Iohannis has any prospective career in the EU structures to like forward to. This is his only chance to continue his political career. Additionally, he finally gets a complete puppet as Prime Minister, PNL will control all of the Ministries he cares about, and ironically, a weak PNL is better for him at least in the short term, because it will be easier to control.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #630 on: November 23, 2021, 07:16:09 AM »

The new Cabinet got announced, and it is just awful, through that is what one would expect from such a corrupt alliance. PSD hot the most out of it, as expected, with the only piggybank going to PNL was the Ministry of European Funds from which, ironically, it is hard to steal. The party is in disarray, with the new leadership rolling over for PSD after rising to power through criticism of Orban's negotiations in 2020. The Ministers were mostly chosen by Iohannis personally, leaving PNL with no say in any of this. Thus, the entrance to government was only approved 27-25 with 17 people boycotting.

Ciolacu was immediately elected to lead the Chamber of Deputies, which has been leaderless since Orban resigned in late September. Senate President Anca Dragu was unconstitutionally replaced with the lawn gnome Florin Citu, which, fittingly for the broader context, could have his appointment nullified unless the Constitutional Court, controlled by PSD, ignores the laws of the nation yet again.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #631 on: January 24, 2022, 01:45:35 AM »

Soo, I think it is about time for an update for all interested if there are any lol.

The PSD-PNL-UDMR government led by Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) was sworn in, and as expected, it has done virtually nothing to stop the rising inflation or to solve the energy crisis, instead focusing on enriching themselves with public funds. Notably, there has been bickering, but not nearly on the same level as with the PNL-USR coalition, probably helped by the fact that the new Prime Minister is not a deranged gnome.

However, he is a plagiarist. Only a few weeks after the then-Minister of Research Florin Roman was revealed to have lied about writing a book that does not exist and studying at a university that has no record of him ever attending, Ciuca himself was revealed to have copied almost a third of his doctorate thesis. He will probably not resign, and no one will ask him to go if only for the sake of not entering a political crisis again, but his credibility, similarly to Ponta, might never recover.

PNL is boiling meanwhile. Stuck in government by Iohannis in a time in which all they need is to spend a long time sorting out their internal affairs, they have a lot of power but no clue on what to do with it. They are getting taken out of the spotlight by PSD, who is seen as leading the government despite PNL having the Prime Minister, and Citu, with his approval rating in single digits, is sinking them into an electoral abyss. They still have not found a way to explain their betrayal of everything they claimed to stand for and Iohannis has disappeared from the spotlight. Any dreams of forcing Citu out were destroyed for now by Ciuca being revealed as a plagiarist, and the PNL high ranks can not decide on a clear candidate to replace their despised leader with. What is clear is that Iohannis will not have as much of a say whenever they decide to elect a new leader, as he is widely perceived as responsible for the disaster PNL is in.

For some reason, PNL thought that taking over ALDE, the party of Tariceanu, would help, so they are merging. A similar attempt to merge with PMP ended up in a brutal fight between factions inside it.

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RGM2609
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« Reply #632 on: February 08, 2022, 11:19:24 AM »

Following a brief, but very intense, tenure as USR leader, Dacian Ciolos has resigned from this position. He was most likely forced out by the former Barna-team, which had a majority in the National Bureau and could stifle anything he wanted to do, but he was also not very effective at communicating, as he let AUR steal the spotlight in opposition. Now Acting Leader is the former Transporation Minister Catalin Drula, who will likely also seek a full term. He is popular in the party and has proved his competence as Minister (kind of the only USR Minister to have done that), as well as beloved by the party's electorate, but the way he came into power, by his faction forcing out the previous leader, is sure to damage his leadership, especially as Ciolos is questioning the fusion between his former party PLUS and USR. There might be a party split eventually.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #633 on: February 08, 2022, 11:45:40 AM »

Is it a purely personal grudge or are there genuine ideological disagreements between them? Seems like the focus should be getting then PSD-PNL crew out and nothing else.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #634 on: February 08, 2022, 12:08:00 PM »

Is it a purely personal grudge or are there genuine ideological disagreements between them? Seems like the focus should be getting then PSD-PNL crew out and nothing else.
No ideological differences, just grudges and the desire to be in charge. Althrough the next election is 3 years away so there is hardly a better time to settle internal disputes. It would probably be better for USR if somebody, anybody finally came out on top and the party could finally focus on winning votes.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #635 on: April 03, 2022, 04:56:11 AM »

Blink and you might have missed it, but in a swift intra-party coup, PNL bosses, with the blessing of President Iohannis, forced Citu to resign from the leadership of the party. The political destiny of Citu, a mere puppet used by Iohannis to oust Orban and then swiftly beheaded once he started growing ambitions of his own, is tragic. With an approval rating of 6% and him being the face of PNL's betrayal of its voters, there is no path forward for him. He will probably lose the Senate Chairmanship and be sent off to some sinecure in exchange for silence. What this means obviously is another Congress. Luckily, this one will be quick. It will take place on April 10th, in a sign PNL has learned from the dragged-out contest of 2021.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #636 on: May 15, 2022, 02:04:56 AM »

A bit of a belated update, but after what feels like an eternity, we are going to have an election! The Mayor of District 5 of Bucharest, Cristian Popescu Piedone, the same one who presided over the Colectiv tragedy, was finally imprisoned, and jow elections will take place in order to replace him. This will finally be a test of how the public feels, as I highly doubt the polls are anywhere near the situation on the ground. District 5 is the poorest, most pro-PSD area of Bucharest, so in a neutral environment, PSD should win this position as they have in every election since 2000 (ok, they technically lost in 2020, but they lost it to their ally Piedone, so I wouldn't really count that), but thwre is a high risk of a split as both Piedone's son and the former Mayor who lost to Piedone in 2020 desperately want to run.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #637 on: May 20, 2022, 04:44:26 AM »

Your forgot a post about this cracking corruption case

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/02/romania-s-former-tourism-minister-sentenced-for-corruption-and-money-laundering

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RGM2609
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« Reply #638 on: May 21, 2022, 09:28:51 AM »

Oh right right. Udrea is not politically relevant anymore and has been dealing with legal messes and arrests since early 2015, but it still is glaring to see someone who used to be so powerful be arrested. Basescu is probably not having a fun time, given that he was also recently declared to have been a collaborator of the communist political police Securitate and got kicked out of his official residence. With all of these scandals and his party lanquishing at 2-3%, he doesn't have a path back to relevancy and will probably just retire in 2024 after his term as MEP ends. What is extremely sad through is that even considering all of this, he is probably the best President we ever had.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #639 on: May 28, 2022, 10:18:21 AM »

Dacian Ciolos seems to be preparing to resign from USR and form a new party following the intra-party conflicts which left him forced to resign as party leader earlier this year. However, he is having trouble attracting people to join his ranks. Apparently, out of 20 MPs affiliated with PLUS before the merger, at best 10 are willing to resign and join Ciolos in a new political project. Obviously, all this does is prevent the emergence of solid opposition to the PSD-PNL coalition. It is hard to be optimistic about the prospects of the new party given the situation on the ground, but I guess we will see.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #640 on: June 01, 2022, 02:03:32 AM »

Dacian Ciolos seems to be preparing to resign from USR and form a new party following the intra-party conflicts which left him forced to resign as party leader earlier this year. However, he is having trouble attracting people to join his ranks. Apparently, out of 20 MPs affiliated with PLUS before the merger, at best 10 are willing to resign and join Ciolos in a new political project. Obviously, all this does is prevent the emergence of solid opposition to the PSD-PNL coalition. It is hard to be optimistic about the prospects of the new party given the situation on the ground, but I guess we will see.
This happened yesterday. Ciolos formed a new party called REPER (roughly translated as STANDARD), together with 4 other MEPs. It is hard to overstate how rough the past few months have been for Ciolos. He lost his high-ranking position in Bruxelles to serve as the leader of USR for a measly few months. He accomplished nothing and now has to restart his political project from scratch in an infinitely worse position than in 2018 when he founded his first party.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #641 on: June 10, 2022, 11:31:59 AM »

Dacian Ciolos seems to be preparing to resign from USR and form a new party following the intra-party conflicts which left him forced to resign as party leader earlier this year. However, he is having trouble attracting people to join his ranks. Apparently, out of 20 MPs affiliated with PLUS before the merger, at best 10 are willing to resign and join Ciolos in a new political project. Obviously, all this does is prevent the emergence of solid opposition to the PSD-PNL coalition. It is hard to be optimistic about the prospects of the new party given the situation on the ground, but I guess we will see.
This happened yesterday. Ciolos formed a new party called REPER (roughly translated as STANDARD), together with 4 other MEPs. It is hard to overstate how rough the past few months have been for Ciolos. He lost his high-ranking position in Bruxelles to serve as the leader of USR for a measly few months. He accomplished nothing and now has to restart his political project from scratch in an infinitely worse position than in 2018 when he founded his first party.
new parties is a Romanian politican tradation is it?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #642 on: June 11, 2022, 03:42:30 AM »

Dacian Ciolos seems to be preparing to resign from USR and form a new party following the intra-party conflicts which left him forced to resign as party leader earlier this year. However, he is having trouble attracting people to join his ranks. Apparently, out of 20 MPs affiliated with PLUS before the merger, at best 10 are willing to resign and join Ciolos in a new political project. Obviously, all this does is prevent the emergence of solid opposition to the PSD-PNL coalition. It is hard to be optimistic about the prospects of the new party given the situation on the ground, but I guess we will see.
This happened yesterday. Ciolos formed a new party called REPER (roughly translated as STANDARD), together with 4 other MEPs. It is hard to overstate how rough the past few months have been for Ciolos. He lost his high-ranking position in Bruxelles to serve as the leader of USR for a measly few months. He accomplished nothing and now has to restart his political project from scratch in an infinitely worse position than in 2018 when he founded his first party.
new parties is a Romanian politican tradation is it?
Yeah, as soon as a faction loses an intra-party battle, the default response seems to be forming a new party. Same for as soon as a random person gains notoriety and thinks they are the knight on a white horse coming to save the country. Most of them end up nowhere.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #643 on: June 21, 2022, 09:50:34 AM »

PSD and PNL are currently having their first public conflict after a few remarkably quiet months (Citu tried to seed some discord from time to time while he was still the leader of PNL, but everybody just ignored him). And they are arguing about...tax reform and price control! At least that is what they want us to believe. PSD is trying to eliminate the flat tax and reimpose the progressive taxation system which was abolished by the Tariceanu Government in 2005. They are also trying to create new taxes on high wages and pensions as well as impose fuel price caps similar to what Hungary is doing. Those are the main priorities, but they are seeking to rewrite the entire tax code if given the chance and make it more focused on the wealthy and businesses. PNL opposes most of these fiscal proposals created by PSD to gain more votes from poor people given that in private polling their numbers are decreasing under the strain of governing. The government overall has been a complete failure, maintaining and even increasing the lavish spending which has defined our budgets ever since Dragnea came to power in 2017. I shudder to think about when austerity will come knocking on our door again given the irresponsibility of PSD governments. Understandably, after both main parties betrayed their electorates with this coalition and with USR consumed by internal issues and AUR without a post-pandemic core message, voters are tuning out of politics. The disinterest is at unprecedented levels, and it will take a lot of things going right (or wrong) for voters to start paying attention again.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #644 on: June 21, 2022, 11:59:21 AM »

One day they'll hold an election in Romania and no one will turn up. The Romanian political class will then stand up as one and declare victory.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #645 on: June 21, 2022, 02:11:15 PM »

One day they'll hold an election in Romania and no one will turn up. The Romanian political class will then stand up as one and declare victory.
I fully intend to always turn up just to spite them, so we can rule that out xd
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RGM2609
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« Reply #646 on: June 24, 2022, 09:04:41 AM »

It is that time of the year...a party leadership election is on the way! Between July 6th and 10th, USR members all over the country will elect their new leader after Dacian Ciolos, who won the party leadership in September, resigned and left to form a new party. The overwhelming favorite is Catalin Drula, a member of the Barna-wing who has been the acting leader ever since Ciolos resigned. A lot of the opposition has left the party with Ciolos and Drula has a much better public image than Barna, having had an outstanding tenure as Transporation Minister, during which he also managed to get a bunch of PNLers who proposed illegal schemes to him indicted. The main opposition to Drula and the one candidate who might stage an upset is Brasov Mayor Allen Coliban. A mayor of one of the biggest cities in Romania, Coliban has formed an alternative power center to the Barna-Drula crew. However, while his political talents were proven when he, in a huge upset, managed to defeat longtime incumbent George Scripcaru, who was first elected in 2004, his ability to persuade fellow party members has left to be desired after his endorsed candidate got only 10% in September. So do not hold your breath for it. It is very possible that Coliban will also try to form a new party after losing, through his task will be complicated by the fact that he will not be able to join it at least officially, as leaving the party under which he got elected as Mayor would result in his term being canceled.

Btw anyone still interested in this?
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #647 on: June 24, 2022, 11:09:33 AM »

It is that time of the year...a party leadership election is on the way! Between July 6th and 10th, USR members all over the country will elect their new leader after Dacian Ciolos, who won the party leadership in September, resigned and left to form a new party. The overwhelming favorite is Catalin Drula, a member of the Barna-wing who has been the acting leader ever since Ciolos resigned. A lot of the opposition has left the party with Ciolos and Drula has a much better public image than Barna, having had an outstanding tenure as Transporation Minister, during which he also managed to get a bunch of PNLers who proposed illegal schemes to him indicted. The main opposition to Drula and the one candidate who might stage an upset is Brasov Mayor Allen Coliban. A mayor of one of the biggest cities in Romania, Coliban has formed an alternative power center to the Barna-Drula crew. However, while his political talents were proven when he, in a huge upset, managed to defeat longtime incumbent George Scripcaru, who was first elected in 2004, his ability to persuade fellow party members has left to be desired after his endorsed candidate got only 10% in September. So do not hold your breath for it. It is very possible that Coliban will also try to form a new party after losing, through his task will be complicated by the fact that he will not be able to join it at least officially, as leaving the party under which he got elected as Mayor would result in his term being canceled.

Btw anyone still interested in this?

Yep I certainly read this thread, not knowing whether to laugh or cry.


Thank you for your updates
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kaoras
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« Reply #648 on: June 24, 2022, 11:13:45 AM »

Yeah, even if we don't comment I think most of the regulars here read all the active threads.
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Babeuf
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« Reply #649 on: June 25, 2022, 05:26:41 PM »

Yeah, even if we don't comment I think most of the regulars here read all the active threads.
Agreed. And this is a fascinating thread, love reading the updates RGM.
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