Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

Apparently, both PNL and PSD are in full disarray at the moment as they try to form a government together, and the whole thing may actually fall apart. For starters, PNL can not even reach an understanding with UDMR, as the Hungarians got greedy and are demanding important piggybank Ministries such as Transportation and European Funds in the next government. Citu is unwilling to hand them over to UDMR as he would repeat the mistake made by Orban, who in December ceded them to USR and caused a full intra-party rebellion against himself.

Furthermore, even with the Orban wing getting ready to leave the party, what remains of PNL is not united, with Iohannis and Citu already at odds with each other. Citu is angry at the President for not nominating him as Prime Minister again and Nicolae Ciuca is not exactly...respecting his leadership, already demanding that he choose his Ministers on his own. Meanwhile, a lot of PNL leaders are trying to persuade Iohannis to invite USR back to the government as that would be the only thing that could stop Orban from gaining momentum with his new party, which is being considered as an option by an unexpectedly high number of PNLers. Some are worried that the split could leave the main PNL with fewer MPs than USR. Anyway, Citu is reportedly rooting for Ciuca to fail and is not helping him at all.

PSD is by far the most affected party by the recent developments. Ciolacu has clearly positioned himself in favor of backing a PNL minority government, however, PSDers across the country have revolted against him and he faces a real possibility of losing his leadership over the party shall he proceed. Thus, he demanded from PNL to only give the government some sort of limited mandate until February 2022, to implement some PSD priorities, and to have him give his rubberstamp to Ministers. Citu, who as mentioned earlier wants Ciuca to fail, rejected all of the above, and PSD left the negotiations.

This could only be a temporary blockage and any other solution is unlikely as PNL will not invite USR back to power, USR will not support a minority government and Iohannis will not call snap elections. But still, the political crisis continues.

[RGM2609]

Ciuca and the other PNLers went to USR and basically begged them to vote for their government, despite being unwilling to give them any positions in it. The ex-PSD General Secretary of the party made a ridiculous proposal, basically saying vote for us now and we will let you back in in a couple of months. Yeah, good luck with that. USR did not fall for that, rejected to vote for Ciuca without Ministries and the situation is right back to where it started, with PNL saying it would go back to PSD.

Meanwhile, PSD is not exactly...stable, Ciolacu being all in favor of voting for Ciuca but not willing to try and impose his authority over the opponents out of fear of being deposed. A lot of the national leaders are opposed to voting for Ciuca, being more concerned about the electoral score of the party, which would take a hit, but many in the countryside support Ciolacu, because they want the money that supporting the government would grant PSD. They would even support going in the government with Ministers to have better access to resources, not that PNL would allow that. So a complicated situation in PSD, but one of the two camps has to emerge victorious and soon because next week at the latest the vote for the Ciuca government will be held.

[RGM2609]

According to political sources, during a meeting held today at the Presidency, Iohannis has brutally and swiftly told Citu off, who hoped that by sabotaging Ciuca he could be renominated as Prime Minister (who would be supposed to confirm him in such a case seems not to have crossed his mind). Ciuca was reportedly close to handing back his mandate because of his failure to secure either PSD or USR support, but Iohannis reasserted his power over Citu during the said meeting and took away any responsibility Citu may have in negotiations, allowing Ciuca to give PSD and USR anything, including Ministries, in exchange for their support. Of course, this is rather unfair to the official PNL leader, but I do not see what Citu could do about it. So negotiations are back on. Of course, PSD has a lot of internal issues and is opposed by PNL voters, carrying the risk of boosting the next Orban party, while USR is vehemently opposed by Iohannis, Citu, and by a lot of PNL members so the path forward is not easy at all.

[Zinneke]

It really makes House of Cards look like a Quakers meeting.

[RGM2609]

Citu could do something about it - after listening to Iohannis berating him and agreeing to his orders last night, the acting Prime Minister has now switched and said he will not follow what Iohannis told him, i.e. offer Ministries to the other parties. Instead, he now wants to start negotiations with individual MPs. Needless to say, this is just a ploy to make Ciuca fall as while MPs are easy to buy, they are also wary of losing their seats, which they would surely do in 2024 if they tie themselves to the sinking ship PNL is. Meanwhile, Iohannis is furious and is pondering making Ciuca a national unity PM with only politically non-affiliated Ministers, kicking PNL-Citu out of the government completely. Also, Orban left the parliamentary group of PNL, but he is still in the party...for now. Probably waiting to be given a good reason to leave it. In the speech announcing his departure, he said things like - the current leadership of PNL has created an artificial crisis which has destroyed the party and the government during a pandemic and an economic crisis, the current leadership, which has lost touch with reality because of a cloud of dust, needs to go home and best of all, the country has lost its way because the one supposed to lead it is fishing or skiing. PNL needs to turn towards the citizens and away from the tenant from the Presidency. In response, Iohannis fired his brother, who has been his advisor on European matters.

[RGM2609]

PSD and PNL have once again tried today to give birth to the new USL, a weak sequel to the extremely successful original. Sadly for our country which desperately needs guidance from such competent parties, they could not do it. Ciolacu has decided that if he is to risk his leadership over backing PNL, at least PSD should get as much as possible out of it. They demanded an official USL - 7 out of 18 Ministries to be given to PSD, who would officially join the government, with its leaders in the spotlight. Iohannis would have probably agreed to that just to see this mess over and return to skiing assured that he has a loyal Prime Minister in place, but Citu did not. As mentioned earlier, he only cares about Ciuca not becoming PM, but honestly, PNL would face a tough fight with the electoral threshold after such an open alliance with PSD (assuming they do not want to run as USL in elections too lol). Anyway, PSD did not get any Ministries and walked out. Discussions will resume tomorrow because of course, Romanians were so shocked and devastated that USL is not coming back that the parties decided to give it another try in the name of the popular desire.

[Zinneke]

This may have been asked earlier in the thread, but why did the original USL come to be?

And another : I was talking to a Slovak the other day and they said in Romania pretty much every minority is respected (save the Romanii/gypsies), that even the Czech-speaking minority have 1 reserved seat. Is this true?

[RGM2609]

This may have been asked earlier in the thread, but why did the original USL come to be?

And another: I was talking to a Slovak the other day and they said in Romania pretty much every minority is respected (save the Romanii/gypsies), that even the Czech-speaking minority have 1 reserved seat. Is this true?

Because of then-President Traian Basescu and his party PDL, through which he tried to control the entire political spectrum, PSD and PNL were increasingly drawn together to survive. After Basescu managed to defeat in 2009 an alliance of literally everyone else against him and after he imposed PDL as the sole governing party despite it winning 30% of the vote, they saw no other way. It is a very simplified version of what happened, but I think you get the point.

Yeah, there are 19 minorities entitled to a seat in Parliament (through the Hungarians do not benefit from theirs because UDMR passes the threshold on its own). And the Democratic Union of Slovaks and Czechs in Romania does have one of the seats. But I think it all comes down to the fact that Romania is a very ethnically homogenous country, with over 90% of the population being ethnically Romanian and the minorities, with the exception of Hungarians and Gypsies, being a few tens of thousands of people living in very narrow areas of the country, so it is rather easy to accept them. I am not sure how tolerant the people would be if Romania was actually ethnically diverse.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This may have been asked earlier in the thread, but why did the original USL come to be?

And another: I was talking to a Slovak the other day and they said in Romania pretty much every minority is respected (save the Romanii/gypsies), that even the Czech-speaking minority have 1 reserved seat. Is this true?

Because of then-President Traian Basescu and his party PDL, through which he tried to control the entire political spectrum, PSD and PNL were increasingly drawn together to survive. After Basescu managed to defeat in 2009 an alliance of literally everyone else against him and after he imposed PDL as the sole governing party despite it winning 30% of the vote, they saw no other way. It is a very simplified version of what happened, but I think you get the point.

Yeah, there are 19 minorities entitled to a seat in Parliament (through the Hungarians do not benefit from theirs because UDMR passes the threshold on its own). And the Democratic Union of Slovaks and Czechs in Romania does have one of the seats. But I think it all comes down to the fact that Romania is a very ethnically homogenous country, with over 90% of the population being ethnically Romanian and the minorities, with the exception of Hungarians and Gypsies, being a few tens of thousands of people living in very narrow areas of the country, so it is rather easy to accept them. I am not sure how tolerant the people would be if Romania was actually ethnically diverse.  

Have the Hungarians ever swung a Romanian general election?

[RGM2609]

This may have been asked earlier in the thread, but why did the original USL come to be?

And another: I was talking to a Slovak the other day and they said in Romania pretty much every minority is respected (save the Romanii/gypsies), that even the Czech-speaking minority have 1 reserved seat. Is this true?

Because of then-President Traian Basescu and his party PDL, through which he tried to control the entire political spectrum, PSD and PNL were increasingly drawn together to survive. After Basescu managed to defeat in 2009 an alliance of literally everyone else against him and after he imposed PDL as the sole governing party despite it winning 30% of the vote, they saw no other way. It is a very simplified version of what happened, but I think you get the point.

Yeah, there are 19 minorities entitled to a seat in Parliament (through the Hungarians do not benefit from theirs because UDMR passes the threshold on its own). And the Democratic Union of Slovaks and Czechs in Romania does have one of the seats. But I think it all comes down to the fact that Romania is a very ethnically homogenous country, with over 90% of the population being ethnically Romanian and the minorities, with the exception of Hungarians and Gypsies, being a few tens of thousands of people living in very narrow areas of the country, so it is rather easy to accept them. I am not sure how tolerant the people would be if Romania was actually ethnically diverse.  

Have the Hungarians ever swung a Romanian general election?

When talking about Parliament, they mostly vote for UDMR, and UDMR is a part of most governments, serving as easy majority fodder. They would join a government with anyone who wants them, regardless of what their electorate wants, so I am not sure if it would be accurate to say that Hungarians swung anything when it comes to governments.

When it comes to the presidential elections, I could not find any clear example, but 2009 is a possibility given that they narrowly went for Basescu and the difference was so small. I can not say for sure through.

[Zinneke]

Didn't Hungarians technically "swing" the presidential vote to block Vadim Tudor? Or was it just notable because its the only time Hungarians voted PSD?

Also, can you explain why nominal Hungarians in the Banat are low whilst in Transylvania there is still a big presence of them. Did Hungarians in Banat simply have more intermarriage with Romanians?

Lastly, as a football fan, I wonder, do Hungarian-speaking players play for the Romanian national team? And do Hungarian-speakers tend to support Hungary when they play Romania? I see some in Brussels who just say that they support both sides and we had a coach in Beglium, Lazlo Boloni, who was like that but is this common?

[RGM2609]

Didn't Hungarians technically "swing" the presidential vote to block Vadim Tudor? Or was it just notable because its the only time Hungarians voted PSD?

Also, can you explain why nominal Hungarians in the Banat are low whilst in Transylvania there is still a big presence of them. Did Hungarians in Banat simply have more intermarriage with Romanians?

Lastly, as a football fan, I wonder, do Hungarian-speaking players play for the Romanian national team? And do Hungarian-speakers tend to support Hungary when they play Romania? I see some in Brussels who just say that they support both sides and we had a coach in Beglium, Lazlo Boloni, who was like that but is this common?

Iliescu won in 2000 with 67%, it is not mathematically possible for Hungarians to have swung it. It was notable because it was the first time since the Revolution that Hungarians voted for PSD (they did so in 2004 too).

I think Hungarians never settled that far south - they mostly settled in the north. The southern Translyvania (thus Banat) was mostly subjected to Saxons settling.

So I am a young guy who has never had a male friend in his life and whose main hobby, outside of politics, is watching a thing called Bravo Ai Stil, where female contestants are supposed to present outfits but end up mostly bickering with each other and when they do not, the members of the jury bicker between them to make up for it. How much do you think I know about football? But from the little information I have, there has not been a Hungarian football player in a long time, and Wikipedia lets me know there has never been a Hungarian coach since at least 1922. So yeah... Hungarians in Romania mainly root for Hungary in games, I think. It is the case that Hungarians here ofter think of Hungary as their real home rather than Romania because...well, Hungary is a much more well-developed country, and many live in communities where the majority is formed by other Hungarians, so little contact with ethnic Romanians. Of course, Budapest just loves to stoke these nationalistic feelings, though I think the younger generations do not think like that as much as their older counterparts.

[Zinneke]

Thank you for your answer. Banat used to be kingdom of Hungary and Timisoara/Temesvar a Hungarian city governed by Austrians () so that's why i thought it was Hungarian...I guess given its history was mostly as a military outpost switching between empires it maybe didn't have as many people coming from Hungary as Saxons, Austrians, Serbs, Romanians, etc.

Actually knowing someone from the Banat they would very much object to you calling them ''southern Transylvanian'' hahaha...

[RGM2609]

Thank you for your answer. Banat used to be kingdom of Hungary and Timisoara/Temesvar a Hungarian city governed by Austrians () so that's why i thought it was Hungarian...I guess given its history was mostly as a military outpost switching between empires it maybe didn't have as many people coming from Hungary as Saxons, Austrians, Serbs, Romanians, etc.

Actually knowing someone from the Banat they would very much object to you calling them ''southern Transylvanian'' hahaha...

I was having in mind how many Saxons there are in other counties east of Banat, like Sibiu, which is where President Iohannis, also a Saxon, comes from. Hence the "southern Transylvania" hahah. But in all honesty most people here would say Banat is a sub-division of Transylvania rather than an independent region, through they probably wouldn't say that to someone from there lol.

[Хahar 🤔]

Lastly, as a football fan, I wonder, do Hungarian-speaking players play for the Romanian national team? And do Hungarian-speakers tend to support Hungary when they play Romania? I see some in Brussels who just say that they support both sides and we had a coach in Beglium, Lazlo Boloni, who was like that but is this common?

I do not follow soccer, but in a sport I do follow, women's artistic gymnastics, the influence of Hungarians on the formerly dominant Romanian program has always been noteworthy. The program came to prominence under the leadership of Béla and Márta Károlyi and has featured stars like Ecaterina Szabó and half-Hungarian Emilia Eberle. (There were also strong competitors of other ethnicities, such as Lavinia Miloșovici and Melita Rühn.) Romanian gymnastics was headquartered at the Transylvanian city of Deva, which is overwhelmingly Romanian now but has had a large Hungarian population in the past.

[Alcibiades]

Didn't Hungarians technically "swing" the presidential vote to block Vadim Tudor? Or was it just notable because its the only time Hungarians voted PSD?

Also, can you explain why nominal Hungarians in the Banat are low whilst in Transylvania there is still a big presence of them. Did Hungarians in Banat simply have more intermarriage with Romanians?

Lastly, as a football fan, I wonder, do Hungarian-speaking players play for the Romanian national team? And do Hungarian-speakers tend to support Hungary when they play Romania? I see some in Brussels who just say that they support both sides and we had a coach in Beglium, Lazlo Boloni, who was like that but is this common?

There is one ethnically Hungarian Romanian player I know of - George Puscas.

[RGM2609]

How do you all know more about Romanian sports than me? Lol, this is so embarrassiiiiiing.

Anyway, our great President Klaus Iohannis was too busy to do anything about the political crisis because he was vacationing in Egypt, but today he has returned and did...nothing. PNL has clearly failed to convince either PSD or USR to back them, and the President just told them to propose a minority government. Now, he will probably try to persuade Ciolacu to back this PNL government but given how unexpectedly difficult the formation of the new USL proved to be, I would not rate the chances of this as too high.

[RGM2609]

So the Ciuca government got presented, and the Ministers are all PNL or UDMR. UDMR got the European Funds Ministry in addition to the 3 it already had and PNL has everything else. The proposals are very disappointing, to say the least, I started writing an effort post with details about the incompetence of each proposed Minister but I got bored along the way. The good thing is that it is very unlikely for this Cabinet to be invested given that both PSD and USR vehemently rejected voting for it. Citu and Ciuca were asked at a joint press conference whether or not the government has any chance of being invested. Citu said yes, spurring laughter from the reporters there. Ciuca then basically said that it does not, contradicting the PNL leader. At least he is not delusional. PNL-UDMR-Minorities have around 170 MPs, with the number getting lower and lower due to 2-3 people leaving PNL every day in solidarity with Orban. Where we go from now is unclear. After both Ciolos and Ciuca got rejected, Iohannis could call snap elections, but he obviously will not. However, it is hard to see another government getting invested, especially since Citu demands to be nominated as PM again after Ciuca fails. The blockage continues. It is possible the Constitutional Court, controlled by PSD, is going to mandate snap elections eventually if no government is being invested, through Iohannis will go to great lengths to avoid that. Another possibility is for Iohannis to get suspended so that now-Senate Chairwoman Anca Dragu (USR) becomes Acting President and calls snap elections.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - Two days before the Parliament could vote on his government, Ciuca has withdrawn from contention, probably because of orders by Iohannis, who did not want to risk the Constitutional Court calling snap elections over his head after Ciuca got rejected. PNL is clearly going to have to form a coalition, through neither USR nor PSD will accept Citu, who wants to be nominated desperately. The crisis continues.

[RGM2609]

Alright so PNL has had a meeting of its National Bureau after Ciuca has given up on his mandate and it has decided that it is impossible to form a minority government and thus will open negotiations with both PSD and USR to form a coalition. PNL is in turmoil over which option should be chosen, as both have a few positives and a lot of negatives at the moment. USL 2.1 is the option preferred by President Iohannis, who has tried to impose it on the entire party, and by various powerbrokers and is the more stable option for the next years. However, it also means huge concessions to PSD and dooming the party in 2024. Rebuilding the coalition with USR would allow PNL to preserve its electorate and is backed by most party members and local leaders, however, the two parties+UDMR do not have a majority anymore given the ongoing defection of the Orban wing, and would require the blessing of Orban to be invested. With regards to who the next Prime Minister is going to be, Nicolae Ciuca is still the frontrunner as he is the candidate backed by Iohannis regardless of which coalition PNL forms. Iohannis wants USL badly and has even pressured PNLers to make Sorin Grindeanu, the guy who tried to legalize corruption in 2017, Acting Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies. So far for liberalism, huh?

[RGM2609]

So USL might actually be happening this time, for real. Following the first failed attempt, PNL has agreed to cede half of the Ministries to PSD. The problem now is the Prime Ministership, as both Ciolacu and Citu want it for themselves. The likely result is some kind of rotation agreement or an "independent" PM. Of course, it is possible for the deal to collapse again, but seeing how unwilling PNL is to work with USR, the outlook seems favorable for such a coalition to be formed.

[RGM2609]

After declaring PSD as a mortal enemy for years, Citu and Iohannis seem ready to befriend them, in the name of stability of course. Citu has accepted that he will not be Prime Minister and is now trying to cut his losses by either becoming Senate President or resuming his old job during the Orban Government as Minister of Public Finances. Meanwhile, Ciolacu will likely have to content himself with the Speakership as Iohannis is insisting on the so-called independent Nicolae Ciuca. Likely to become Minister in this government of national embarrassment is Sorin Grindeanu, the figurehead Prime Minister who tried to legalize corruption, got thrown out by his party and now pretends to be the Einstein of governance. Another example would be Gabriela Firea, former TV anchor and then Mayor of Bucharest who had such a disastrous tenure that by the end of it people had no hot water. Rares Bogdan (PNL), another TV anchor who is on top of that psychically unstable and who was ordering PNLers in 2019 to lock up the doors of the party for any PSDers wanting to join, now wants to take over the Development Ministry, key in spreading government funds to local authorities. And the examples are many. I will write an analysis when the list is official, I hope.

17 MPs have so far left the PNL group together with Orban, and at least another 10 are planning to do so if PNL joins PSD in government. Meanwhile, the party members are furious, but so far ignored by the party leadership. I think PNL under 5% may not be such an unthinkable possibility anymore.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A new movie is coming to Romania, courtesy of PNL. It's called "Coalition or: How I Learned to Stop Hating and Love the PSD"
Coming soon to a parliament near you!

[RGM2609]

Today the meeting of the great National Bureau of PNL has decided 48 to 22 to begin the official negotiations with PSD to form a government, and I believe kept the USR option on the table. PSD has also unanimously decided to negotiate with PNL. While the score inside PNL's Bureau is somewhat overwhelming, the meeting was tense, with Orban once again threatening to form another party and numerous key figures opposing the move. The President was unusually involved, with a lot of mid-tier PNL randos reportedly being shocked by Iohannis personally calling them to order them to support a government with PSD under Ciuca. The negotiations themselves however are likely to be contentious and may last until January.

On a humorous note, while Citu's Facebook posts are disliked by Romanians who mostly give negative feedback, they started going viral in various other countries. Russians, Argentianians and Nigerians are really stating their support for the sociopath. Especially the Vietnamese seem to be in awe with the Romanian PM, with over 70% of his likes being given by them.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING: PNL has just excluded Ludovic Orban from its ranks as it is getting ready to wrap up negotiations with PSD. The main sticking points right now are the Prime Ministership, where the obvious solution of Ciuca as a rotation Prime Minister is getting blocked by Citu, who demands to be PM as he is worried he will repeat Orban's fate, and the key Ministries of Finances and Justice, of which PSD wants at least one but PNL refuses to hand them over.

Now back to Orban, he has 18 MPs in his corner with more to follow once the government of national embarrassment gets voted in. He is probably pleased that Citu, in a last-ditch attempt to prove his power, kicked him out instead of having to leave himself, and already announced that he will form a new party. Right now the potential of Orban's party is huge as Citu and Iohannis have managed to unite all segments of society in unanimous disapproval towards them. Honestly, I doubt PNL will exist for much longer.