Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Astatine]

Given that Iohannis won the presidential elections overwhelmingly back then, are there any polls about his current approval? Was he ever really popular, and how is he being seen now?

[RGM2609]

Given that Iohannis won the presidential elections overwhelmingly back then, are there any polls about his current approval? Was he ever really popular, and how is he being seen now?

Polls in Romania are not reliable, but most of them show him in the high 20s/low 30s which is sort of the baseline in Romania given how disapproved of are Romanian politicians. Basically he is only approved of by people already voting for PNL and UDMR and can not expand his party's electorate like he used to.

He was never really popular, he only won in 2014 because the only alternative was Victor Ponta and the results in 2016 show how beloved he was at first. He then rose back only because he used his office to seem the main opoosition to PSD/Dragnea and the 2019 results proves that. Since PNL is in government and Iohannis got more active in their support, he was seen as the actual one in charge and is playing the bill in popular support. The large majority disapproving of him either views it as a foreign puppet or a corrupt fake refornist, depending on their political leanings.

[RGM2609]

Leaked PMP internal poll:

PSD - 28%
USR - 18% (!)
AUR - 18% (!!)
PNL - 17% (!!!)
PMP - 6%
UDMR - 5%


I think I will let these numbers speak for themselves.

[Flyersfan232]

Leaked PMP internal poll:

PSD - 28%
USR - 18% (!)
AUR - 18% (!!)
PNL - 17% (!!!)
PMP - 6%
UDMR - 5%


I think I will let these numbers speak for themselves.

as much as i want this to be true i would throw right into the trash

[RGM2609]

So, the political crisis still is not solved, but it is clear that PNL and Iohannis are fighting by themselves against the will of both the Parliament and the people, and they do so without any hesitations. In such a context, many people are noticing the similarities between PNL right now and PDL in the 2010-2012 period. An unpopular government carried on the back of an arrogant, unemphatic president against the thoughts of over 80% of the population, which is a broad coalition formed of loyal PSDers and anti-establishment hipsters, all bonded together by their disapproval of the current regime. History repeats itself, I guess.

What many find fascinating is that PNL right now is in a much worse position than even PDL back then (and PDL, right now, is dead). First of all, PNL lacks a parliamentary majority, which PDL had provided for itself by buying lots of party switchers (and still it did not last for an entire term in power). It also lacks a coherent narrative about why it needs to govern and it is obvious for literally everyone that all Iohannis cares about is his control over the party and the country. PDL at least pretended to have some goals beyond that. PDL also had a bigger ceiling to fall from (the high 30s). PNL got 25% in 2020 and was already perceived as the moral loser. Florin Citu is also an unhinged and toxic politician who can not communicate calmly even with his own supporters. And Iohannis will be history after the next election, while Basescu still had 2 years left. So yeah, PNL is in an even worse situation than PDL was.

It does have an advantage that it needs to fructify - it is not irremediably tied to Citu, it can still get rid of him. Similar to Udrea back in the day, Citu is mobilizing entire electoral segments against PNL with every public appearance. Maybe if he goes away, PNL can try to exit the corner it placed itself in before it is too late. Regardless, overall PNL is in a worse situation than PDL and, unless something radically changes, is headed to its political demise.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Iohannis has just nominated Ciolos for PM.

[RGM2609]

Iohannis has just nominated Ciolos for PM.

Sorry for not writing a post on this, got sidetracked by personal stuff.

The bottomline is - this is not a serious proposal. Ciolos will only be voted by USR and maybe the Orban faction of PNL. Iohannis is just stalling for time so that PNL can find a solution to continue governing especially as, according to a decision by the Constitutional Court, the first nominee could not be the overthrowed PM (i.e. Citu).

[RGM2609]

Ludovic Orban has finally resigned today from the Speakership of the Chamber of Deputies. This leaves PNL in a very delicate situation as it would be a blow to lose this key office in the legislative process however it is obvious that the frontrunner is Marcel Ciolacu, the PSD leader who has been Speaker in the past legislature too given that he will likely be voted by AUR and the national minorities while the PNL candidate can not even rely on all of the MPs of his own party, a lot of whom might split together with Orban and form a new party, much less on any help from USR. Regardless, the lack of a Speaker and the likely installation of Ciolacu is only going to deepen the political crisis.

[Colbert]

A PSD-AUR will probably be the next governement. A slovakian situation.

[RGM2609]

A PSD-AUR will probably be the next governement. A slovakian situation.

Hmm. If you mean after 2024, maybe. But as discussed earlier in the thread, Iohannis will not allow PNL to leave government for as long as he is President.

[Flyersfan232]

A PSD-AUR will probably be the next governement. A slovakian situation.

I mean Czechia will have a ecr party in government with a egp party

[RGM2609]

As expected, PNL and UDMR have refused to join the Ciolos Cabinet, and he will now go to Parliament with an exclusively USR government proposal. While the list of ministers is, in many ways, my dream one, and one in which 90% of the candidates have a lot of experience in the field they want to manage, it is also clearly not going to pass. USR has one possible (but still uncertain) ally in PNL-Orban, but even with them on their side, they barely reach 100 MPs out of the 466 members of the oversized, both literally and figuratively, institution. 

What follows next is going to be far more interesting. As discussed earlier in the thread, the Constitution states that if Parliament rejects 2 Prime Minister candidates, the President can dissolve Parliament. What this means is that the current crisis could go on forever however I do not think Iohannis is going to risk the pro-PSD Constitutional Court possibly issuing another creative reinterpretation turning can dissolve into has to dissolve. So he will probably try to actually gather a majority around PNL this time, but USR refuses to join another Citu Cabinet and PSD...it seems to have gotten cold feet. After the month of September in which they have functioned as allies of PNL, they probably got scared of the popular anger and both AUR and Dragnea taking away their voters and flip-flopped. As a result, Citu has refused to grant them any money and has given additional funding exclusively to PNLers. Unless PSD switches again, Iohannis may have to drop Citu in order to prevent snap elections.

[RGM2609]

The Ciolos government was rejected today, getting only 88 out of the 234 votes necessary to be sworn in. Now, it is back to President Iohannis, who is said to have come to the conclusion that Citu must be gotten rid of in order to save PNL, as both PSD and USR refuse to tie themselves to that sinking ship of a Prime Minister. However, Citu is also refusing to step down and wants to continue in charge.

[Beagle]

The 8+ votes that were not USR PLUS came from minorities or from the Orban wing?

[RGM2609]

The 8+ votes that were not USR PLUS came from minorities or from the Orban wing?

It appears as if Ciolos got 78 votes from USR (2 were absent) and 10 from the Orban wing. Ludovic Orban did not vote, so it was not a coordonated decision, but some MPs on his side still chose open defiance.

[RGM2609]

So Citu is officially history - as mentioned earlier because USR and PSD both refuse to work with him, Iohannis wanted to depose him. He succeeded today and imposed his protege and first choice, Defense Minister Nicolae Ciuca as Prime Ministerial proposal. Iohannis and Citu have seemingly both agreed to not rebuild the coalition with USR and instead try to get PSD support for Ciuca as Prime Minister. PNLers have already started to ask for a 6-month crisis mandate from PSD. We will see if Ciolacu will take the bait and reform USL or reject Ciuca and try to force snap elections.

[RGM2609]

It appears as if Iohannis is the big winner of this political crisis, as he is on the verge of winning total control over PNL and the government. The end game has always been making Ciuca the Prime Minister as he seems to be the only one Iohannis really trusts. An episode already forgotten was that Iohannis already tried once to make Ciuca the Prime Minister after the election last year, and it was Orban (!) who forced the nomination of Citu for the job. While Citu has become loyal to him and was used as a trojan horse to defeat Orban for good, he was seemingly deemed too much of a liability as a borderline insane and definitely unstable politician compared to the experienced and predictable Ciuca. It is possible that Iohannis has intentionally sabotaged Citu by ordering him to kick USR out just before the fourth wave. By imposing Ciuca over the head of the party, he has reassessed his power, and with Orban removed and Citu an unpopular figurehead, he has the pathway to full party control already laid out. If PSD accepts to vote for Ciuca, he will also have full governmental control with a loyal Prime Minister, no uncomfortable coalition partners, and PSD bribed out of the game. 

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - It would seem as if President Iohannis imposing PNL to nominate Nicolae Ciuca as Prime Minister over the head of literally everyone in the party (as Ciuca has no intra-party faction or support) and the presidential plan (or more likely more than just a plan) to revive USL has been the last straw for Ludovic Orban, who has announced that he is resigning from the PNL parliamentary group. This comes after a month during which Orban has gotten more and more aggressive in statements, even saying that it would be a good idea to recall Iohannis. With him, there will likely be at least 15, probably more MPs leaving, which will weaken PNL even more and make it entirely reliant on PSD support while being propped up by Iohannis to govern during these complicated times on its own.

[PSOL]

Yeah, it’s clear that only PSD, and the nominally centre-left in general here in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, can competently run the country and that the centre-right is incapable of that.

[Astatine]

Yeah, it’s clear that only PSD, and the nominally centre-left in general here in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, can competently run the country and that the centre-right is incapable of that.

Did you eradicate the Dragnea years in Romania (PSD), the Fico years in Slovakia (Smer) and the Plahotniuc (PDM) years in Moldova from your memories? Or the current situation with Ivanishvili and his puppets in Georgia (GD)? All of those parties are members or observers of the PES, counting as "nominally center-left" in your definition.

[RGM2609]

Yeah, it’s clear that only PSD, and the nominally centre-left in general here in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, can competently run the country and that the centre-right is incapable of that.

Viorica Dancila would like a word with you.

Seriously now, PSD is by any defintion not competent. I would say that, looking at Romanian history, all of their governments except the Nastase one were messes. I can go into detail if you want. What PSD does have, and the center right lacks, is a natural sense of when to get in power and when to leave and let someone else be in charge. Sort of like how farmers sense storms approaching. The Romanian center right severely lacks that and does not care how or when it comes to power, a trait which constantly blows up in its face. What PSD also lacks is competition in its electoral segment (through that might be changing now), meaning that when it governs, it governs alone or with tool parties, while when an anti-PSD govt is formed, it is an unstable mess of competiting parties desperate to kill off each other.

[RGM2609]

Apparently Ciolacu's decision to strike a deal with Iohannis has been...quite unpopular amongst the PSDers in the country as well as some central figures of the party, and he now had to impose an arbitrary time limit until February 2022 for PSD supporting a minority government. I am not sure he can walk back on this, especially given Dragnea waiting in the wings. So 2922 will be once again a fun year in Romania. 

[Beagle]

Apparently Ciolacu's decision to strike a deal with Iohannis has been...quite unpopular amongst the PSDers in the country as well as some central figures of the party, and he now had to impose an arbitrary time limit until February 2022 for PSD supporting a minority government. I am not sure he can walk back on this, especially given Dragnea waiting in the wings. So 2922 will be once again a fun year in Romania. 

USL revival is a done deal then? Huh, I would have expected PSD to at least let Iohannis squirm for longer.

Obviously a single poll is next to worthless, but does the eye-popping one with the Orban-wing-PNL at 11.5% and Cîțu-wing-PNL at 3% have any basis in the situation on the ground in your opinion?

[RGM2609]

Apparently Ciolacu's decision to strike a deal with Iohannis has been...quite unpopular amongst the PSDers in the country as well as some central figures of the party, and he now had to impose an arbitrary time limit until February 2022 for PSD supporting a minority government. I am not sure he can walk back on this, especially given Dragnea waiting in the wings. So 2922 will be once again a fun year in Romania. 

USL revival is a done deal then? Huh, I would have expected PSD to at least let Iohannis squirm for longer.

Obviously a single poll is next to worthless, but does the eye-popping one with the Orban-wing-PNL at 11.5% and Cîțu-wing-PNL at 3% have any basis in the situation on the ground in your opinion?

Yeah. Even as leaders continue to hedge thinking everyone is stupid, social liberal values are already being spread across the government, for example at the Consumer Protection agency, where the son of a PSD baron got appointed in a key position, or at the Equality between Genders agency, where by pure coincidence, of course, the husband of an influent PSD MP is set to take over a very well-paid position.

I don't think PNL-Citu would get 3%, because even if only their party members and voters easy to moblize in the rural areas by their mayors voted, they would be over 5%. But there are very few people still supporting PNL on their own initiative, without standing to gain something from it. This is anectodal, but my grandparents who live in a (former) PNL stronghold in Translyvania and voted for PNL at every election since PDL died are now calling Iohannis "that f- powerhungry idiot". If the election was today, I think both PNLs would get 6-8% each.

[Estrella]

Apparently Ciolacu's decision to strike a deal with Iohannis has been...quite unpopular amongst the PSDers in the country as well as some central figures of the party, and he now had to impose an arbitrary time limit until February 2022 for PSD supporting a minority government. I am not sure he can walk back on this, especially given Dragnea waiting in the wings. So 2922 will be once again a fun year in Romania. 

USL revival is a done deal then? Huh, I would have expected PSD to at least let Iohannis squirm for longer.

Obviously a single poll is next to worthless, but does the eye-popping one with the Orban-wing-PNL at 11.5% and Cîțu-wing-PNL at 3% have any basis in the situation on the ground in your opinion?

Yeah. Even as leaders continue to hedge thinking everyone is stupid, social liberal values are already being spread across the government, for example at the Consumer Protection agency, where the son of a PSD baron got appointed in a key position, or at the Equality between Genders agency, where by pure coincidence, of course, the husband of an influent PSD MP is set to take over a very well-paid position.

I don't think PNL-Citu would get 3%, because even if only their party members and voters easy to moblize in the rural areas by their mayors voted, they would be over 5%. But there are very few people still supporting PNL on their own initiative, without standing to gain something from it. This is anectodal, but my grandparents who live in a (former) PNL stronghold in Translyvania and voted for PNL at every election since PDL died are now calling Iohannis "that f- powerhungry idiot". If the election was today, I think both PNLs would get 6-8% each.

I'd just like to say I love the huge contrast between how "wow nice progressive FF " this sounds at first sight and what it actually means. Not that this is the only case of that:

The Conservative Party was founded as the Romanian Humanist Party (PUR) on 18 December 1991 and was for a time a member of the Humanist International. [...] The party was founded by former well known Securitate collaborator and informer Dan Voiculescu, a post-1989 wealthy businessman who formally gave control of his companies to relatives.

The Humanist Power Party (Social-Liberal) is a centre-left [citation needed] political party in Romania. It was founded in 2015 by members of the Conservative Party (PC) [...] In 2018, former Sector 4 mayor, Cristian Popescu Piedone join PPU and reentered politics, having previously been prosecuted for the Colectiv nightclub fire back in 2015. He was accounted responsible and in 2019 sentenced to 8 years in prison, but the sentence was not decisive and was attacked by the Bucharest Court of Appeal. With all the legal problems and controversy surrounding Piedone, PPU still endorsed him as candidate in the 2016 Romanian local elections for mayor of Sector 4 as well as in the 2020 Romanian local elections for mayor of Sector 5, winning the latter.