Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

The dumbest political crisis is now over: Citu stays as Prime Minister, USR will replace the Health Minister and some amendments to the original coalition deal will be signed (probably involving the sacking procedure being reformed and some USR policy priorities underlined). Life goes on.

[RGM2609]

So today the unofficial fight for the leadership of PNL is now public. Prime Minister Citu has declared that he will run against current leader Ludovic Orban during the Congress, which will occur in September.

It is for now a toss-up. Ludovic Orban may be a slight favorite due to how long he has been in the party leadership (meaning by now the local structures are stacked with proteges and loyalists), an advantage expressed by the fact that out of 42 county leaders, 36 had endorsed him at the beginning of the year. However, that seemingly huge advantage is very vulnerable. Many of those county leaders are only acting and could be replaced at any time, their support may not translate into actual votes from the county delegates or they themselves may change their mind under the prospect of more funding from the government.

The PM has support from the anti-Orban wing of the party, Ministers, various power brokers in the party, and the influential Mayor of Cluj Emil Boc. To that one may add the unofficial support from President Iohannis, who despises Orban. If necessary, Iohannis could always make his will known to everyone before Congress, and it is unlikely PNL would disobey him.

In the first months of the year, this race appeared to be a coronation for Orban - the discontent for the Government was high even within the party. But now that the third wave of the pandemic is over, the country is re-opening, the economy is recovering and the coalition is stable - the gap between the two candidates is starting to close quickly. All bets are off for now, but contested Congresses are rare in Romania (the last one - in 2013, killed PDL). There will probably be a clear favorite by September.

September is also the month when USR is having a Congress which is also, as of right now, very contested. This will be a crucial month for the governing parties.

[RGM2609]

Now, on to the USR Congress -

The main contenders, USR leader Dan Barna and former PM Dacian Ciolos, are both very vulnerable. Barna is widely viewed as a failure for the poor results from the Parliamentary, as well as because he lost the first round of the presidential to Viorica Dancila of all people. However, Ciolos has a much smaller base of support in his former small party PLUS and would have to convince many outside his own organization to switch sides. Recent events have also not been kind to them - Barna is having judicial troubles, and, if he starts getting indictments, he would have to resign as USR leader, while Ciolos is caught up with Brussels and has largely been absent from the Romanian political scene.

According to sources in the party, Ciolos proposed that both he and Barna not stand during the Congress in September and let a fresh face take over the party. However, Barna refused his offer and still wants to run (unless he gets indicted).

What happens next in this race seems to depend on the outcome of the judicial case Barna is facing. Should he get away from an indictment until September, he will run and Ciolos would probably feel forced to run himself in order to defeat him. However, if Barna has to resign, Ciolos would probably not run and the race will be wide-open (the frontrunner would probably be Transportation Minister Catalin Drula, who is popular in the party)

[Beagle]

What did Barna allegedly do?

[RGM2609]

What did Barna allegedly do?

He used to be consult firms who wished to get European funding. He is accused of manuevering the system from his position so he could get more money (tldr: stealing European funds)

[RGM2609]

The first election since the parliamentary has had some unexpected results. Mayors got arrested or died in 6 cities and 29 villages and by-elections had to be held for the now-vacant positions. In 24 of these places, the Mayors were aligned with PSD, in 9 with PNL, in 1 with UDMR, and in 1 with PMP. The surprise is that PNL actually made gains in these places, flipping 7 Mayorships from PSD to them, when everyone expected a loss for the government. Obviously barely anyone even knew that these elections were taking place so it will not affect public support, but it does signal some issues for PSD in rural areas. It is possible that AUR, which was a non-factor in September 2020, is taking crucial votes away from PSD and allows PNL to win, but that is just a theory I can not prove without actual results, which seem hard to find.

[RGM2609]

The second Minister who is gone from the Cabinet is Alexandru Nazare, the PNL Finance Minister. He is one of the few Ministers who did not endorse the bid of Prime Minister Citu to oust Ludovic Orban from his position as PNL Leader. According to political sources, Nazare did not approve of the plans by Citu to give a lot of money from the budget to PNL Mayors in order to buy their support in the internal campaign. He will probably be replaced by a PNL County Chairman who is still undecided or some other official whose support would be valuable for the PM.

In other news, the Congresses of both PNL and USR, which will happen in late September or early October, are both already the focus of most politicians. In USR, Barna has still not been indicted and starts as the favorite against former Prime Minister Ciolos. However, that could easily change if another challenger from the former USR emerges. In PNL, the fake reformist Florin Citu is gaining on the arrogant mediocrity Ludovic Orban, but it is still too early to say who has the better odds.

[RGM2609]

It would seem that the AUR myth that many people subscribed to that the party is a mysterious, dynamic, unbeatable force that will eventually take over power has been irrevocably shattered by the hilarious result they obtained in Moldova. Following a lot of foreshadowing of a great result, many opportunists jumping into the AUR Moldova train and so much noise from them - they got 0,49%. Not even half of a percentage point. This great flop has been the source of unabated joy from liberals in Romania but most importantly - it completely ended the momentum AUR had, which was already slowing down as the COVID restrictions are lifted. It may well be the beginning of the end for this disgusting, vile party.

[Beagle]

Dragnea getting released from jail by a Giurgiu court doesn't seem right to me; if allowed to venue shop, why wouldn't all convicted PSD politicians apply for early release to Giurgiu and Slatina courts, while their PNL counterparts - to Alba Iulia and Arad?

[RGM2609]

Dragnea getting released from jail by a Giurgiu court doesn't seem right to me; if allowed to venue shop, why wouldn't all convicted PSD politicians apply for early release to Giurgiu and Slatina courts, while their PNL counterparts - to Alba Iulia and Arad?

Actually, Giurgiu has been shifting away from PSD for years, culminating with a big defeat in 2020. Since last year, PNL controls both the city and the county at large. And in the 2020 parliamentary, PNL won in Giurgiu the highest percentage it won in any county. While the decision is still very questionable, I doubt the political allegiance of the place had anything to do with it.

[Beagle]

Actually, Giurgiu has been shifting away from PSD for years, culminating with a big defeat in 2020. Since last year, PNL controls both the city and the county at large. And in the 2020 parliamentary, PNL won in Giurgiu the highest percentage it won in any county. While the decision is still very questionable, I doubt the political allegiance of the place had anything to do with it.

Ha, I have it ingrained that Giurgiu = PSD stronghold, that's an interesting development. But I'm still curious as to why the hearing took place in Giurgiu, if the crime didn't take place there. Under our legal system, this would have been heard in the court with jurisdiction where Dragnea is jailed (afaik, it's Rahova prison, so Bucharest something).

[RGM2609]

Actually, Giurgiu has been shifting away from PSD for years, culminating with a big defeat in 2020. Since last year, PNL controls both the city and the county at large. And in the 2020 parliamentary, PNL won in Giurgiu the highest percentage it won in any county. While the decision is still very questionable, I doubt the political allegiance of the place had anything to do with it.

Ha, I have it ingrained that Giurgiu = PSD stronghold, that's an interesting development. But I'm still curious as to why the hearing took place in Giurgiu, if the crime didn't take place there. Under our legal system, this would have been heard in the court with jurisdiction where Dragnea is jailed (afaik, it's Rahova prison, so Bucharest something).

Well, hearings did start in Bucharest, and at the end of May the Courts there rejected Dragnea's request. However, he made an appeal claiming that the judges were biased against him because they had signed a petition against his judicial changes when he was in power and demanded for his request to be judged again somewhere else. The appeal was accepted

[RGM2609]

The PNL saga continues - I can not believe there are still two months until its Congress. It would seem as if Florin Citu is gaining a decisive advantage within the power brokers inside the party, who often decide the direction of their respective organizations. Many people who got elected as PNL County Chairmen promising to back Orban have now flip-flopped - the rats are leaving the sinking ship. Of course, the unrestrained usage of government resources by Citu to help his campaign does not hurt either - it would seem as if the country has stopped being governed since this battle to the death started.

There are still two things that stand in the way for Citu - the support for Orban (unrelated but I have noticed with deep disgust that I started to root for him) among the grassroots is not to be underestimated, and while usually, the powerbrokers have their way in PNL, surprises happen. And also, influential circles within PNL are discussing running a unity candidate - they are worried that two more months of this unending duel will leave the party badly damaged.

Anyway, today, the crucial election for PNL Bucharest Chairmanship was won by District 6 Mayor Ciprian Ciucu, who signed a support agreement with Orban and then broke it the next day. He defeated Orban's protege and incumbent Violeta Alexandru, who is actually a reformer. This is a big defeat for the Speaker, as he lost yet another crucial organization.

On news related to governing - UDMR is blocking the most needed reforms and PNL is unwilling to do anything about it. PMP not entering Parliament was probably the worst electoral outcome for this country since 1992.

[RGM2609]

I like to keep my coverage focused on the big picture and often miss on the (mostly unintended) humor that fills Romanian politics. But today I will try to delve deeper so that everyone can understand the absolute nightmare the people here are living because of the PNL leadership election, because of which the country is not governed and the world stopped spinning.

So PNL, fortunately, or not, is the party that leads the country and will continue to do so as it has control over the Presidency, the Prime Ministership, the Speakership, half of the Ministries, almost half of the Mayorships and Country Chairmanships. So, in other words, it is the strongest party. And yet this election has shown what it is really about - betrayal, incompetence, power abuses, conflicts that forced the Police to get involved, scandals, and threats.

Perhaps the most telling incident happened at the elections for the PNL organization in Spain, where the incumbent president won reelection by prohibiting the delegates supporting other candidates from getting inside the convention hall. The Spanish Police had to get involved to prevent him from being beaten up by the furious liberals he kept outside. Other incidents include but do not resume to Citu supporters changing the key to prevent Orban supporters from getting in the party HQ, an election being canceled because delegates could not help it but try to beat up each other, bodyguards ordered by someone supporting the PM to push over Orban, delegates being bribed, candidates giving more ballots to their supporters, etc. This is the biggest party in Romania.

On the slightly bigger picture, I feel bad for Orban. Do not get me wrong, he is absolutely despicable, but the sheer amount of betrayals he has faced in these few months is a few too many. Ministers he appointed, politicians he supported, people he found in the middle of nowhere and made them high-ranking officials - all of them are very excited to support Citu. But perhaps the biggest LOL of this season was when people who ran and won offices in the party with his endorsement and promising to back him - only to announce after they got elected that they want Citu as party leader. Ouch.

However, the incumbent is not without backers. It seems as if Orban has great success with PNLers who have judicial issues - he is backed by the County Chairman of Iasi and its Mayor, both of whom had to self-suspend from PNL because of corruption accusations, as well as most other known-to-be-corrupt liberals. To counter that, Citu self-appointed himself as acting Finance Minister and started spreading around money to PNL Mayors - having them literally standing in line in front of the Ministry to get their promised cash.

I would love to details some of the other ridiculous moments - an internal government memo calling for people to leak dirt on Orban to the media, Citu engineering a humiliating moment in which he left Orban alone on the front row, and Orban comparing himself to Ronaldo. But I probably wrote too much for the level of interest.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I would love to details some of the other ridiculous moments - an internal government memo calling for people to leak dirt on Orban to the media, Citu engineering a humiliating moment in which he left Orban alone on the front row, and Orban comparing himself to Ronaldo. But I probably wrote too much for the level of interest.

No, I for one would love to read more about this if you're willing to write about it.

[RGM2609]

I would love to details some of the other ridiculous moments - an internal government memo calling for people to leak dirt on Orban to the media, Citu engineering a humiliating moment in which he left Orban alone on the front row, and Orban comparing himself to Ronaldo. But I probably wrote too much for the level of interest.

No, I for one would love to read more about this if you're willing to write about it.

Oh, good to hear and unexpected that there is any interest. I will keep you all updated as the sh**tshow continues!

[RGM2609]

The now infamous PNL organization from the city of Timisoara (one of the largest in the country), has made a mockery out of itself again. After last month the delegates beat the hell out of each other, the pro-Orban faction stole the stamp of the party and the Citu team locked its rivals out of the party headquarters, today was supposed to be the big day. And the pro-Citu team (which currently controls the organization) decided to screw it and rig the election outright, removing its opponents from the attendance list and canceling candidacies. Obviously, it did not go over well - the Orbanists forced their way into the convention hall and once again started fighting, both verbally and physically, with their opponents who were already assembled there. Eventually, the rigged roll calls ensured a victory for the pro-Citu candidate, but Orban said he will file a motion to dismiss the result. I am looking forward to the third time!

Also the vaccination target set by the Prime Minister for June 1st was achieved...today. Who is to blame? According to Citu, either anyone else or nobody at all, depending on his mood at that time

[Continential]

Thank you for your updates RGM!

[RGM2609]

The PNL county elections are over and the picture is stark - 32 country chairmen support Florin Citu, 12 support Ludovic Orban and 5 are undecided. This is not exactly an accurate picture, as in many of the 37 organizations not supporting Orban right now, there is still a significant pro-Orban vote from the party members, and many people won elections as Orban supporters before switching to Citu. With that being said, Orban needs at least 10 chairmen to support him to even be on the ballot, so it is unlikely, but not impossible that he will fail to qualify given how fast the rats are leaving the sinking ship.

With that being said, the government is also boiling. PNL and USR tensions are higher than ever, and President Iohannis really wants Justice Minister Stelian Ion (USR) out while the Prime Minister has his sights set on the Transporation Minister Catalin Drula (also USR). It is unknown whether PNL will have the courage to remove the two, given that it would collapse the government, especially after what happened with Voiculescu in April. Also, speaking of USR, the contest there is silent compared to the PNL one. Deputy PM Dan Barna is unpopular in the party, but many people from the original USR (who are the majority) will hold their nose and vote for him rather than give the party over to the former PLUSers and their leader Dacian Ciolos. Of course, a government reset until Congress will change the dynamics of the race

[Beagle]

Could you expand a bit on the way USR+ congress delegates are selected? I assume former USR and PLUS members are automatically enrolled, but do they allow membership in the alliance as such? Also, was the congress pushed back or was it always 2 October (I assume that USR+ deliberately want to know what happens at the PNL congress before taking their decision?

[RGM2609]

Could you expand a bit on the way USR+ congress delegates are selected? I assume former USR and PLUS members are automatically enrolled, but do they allow membership in the alliance as such? Also, was the congress pushed back or was it always 2 October (I assume that USR+ deliberately want to know what happens at the PNL congress before taking their decision?

It is fairly straightforward. All county organizations get a number of delegates that is proportional to the number of votes USR got in that county in the parliamentary election. Then, when the organization has its leadership election, they also elect the delegates. And no, officially there is no factionalism in the Alliance, with all members being only a member of it, but unofficially, well that is another topic... Anyway, now all the delegates have been chosen, and only a bit over 400 out of the 1200 delegates are former PLUSers.

And yes, it was pushed back. Originally, it was unofficially supposed to take place on September 5th. And the PNL leadership election was absolutely the reason. However, it is hard to say how either outcome would impact the election. I suppose a Citu victory would be good for Barna and an Orban one for Ciolos? But the logical connections are pretty weak.

[RGM2609]

So, a huge scandal has erupted right now - Citu was arrested in the US for driving under the influence while he was a student there. Of course, the information is not such a bombshell itself, as he only stayed there for two days, but rather the fact that he kept it hidden for the past 20 years as he rose through the ranks of politics. Orban claims he did not know and probably Iohannis did not either. Citu, with the hubris that he is now well-known for, refuses to take any responsibility, and he is trying to blame it on whoever leaked it to the press. It is unclear how this will affect the PNL leadership race, which is heating up now more than ever. This gives Orban a bit of a break and an opportunity to go on the offensive after a year of getting abandoned by most of his high-ranking supporters, but whether he will manage to put a dent in the advantage Citu has is unknown. Meanwhile, USR is exploding. Tired of the contempt with which Citu treats them, they had a very tense meeting in which they came close to demanding his resignation, with only the memory of what happened in April stopping them.

In other news, PSD, apparently with help from whatever remains of the PMP, is starting a recall effort against controversial USR Mayor of District 1 Clotilde Armand. To have the recall referendum organized, they need a pretty big number of signatures and the odds are against them. I will update you on what could happen next and the impact of this if PSD manages to get enough people to sign.

[Beagle]

So, a huge scandal has erupted right now - Citu was arrested in the US for driving under the influence while he was a student there. Of course, the information is not such a bombshell itself, as he only stayed there for two days, but rather the fact that he kept it hidden for the past 20 years as he rose through the ranks of politics. Orban claims he did not know and probably Iohannis did not either. Citu, with the hubris that he is now well-known for, refuses to take any responsibility, and he is trying to blame it on whoever leaked it to the press. It is unclear how this will affect the PNL leadership race, which is heating up now more than ever. This gives Orban a bit of a break and an opportunity to go on the offensive after a year of getting abandoned by most of his high-ranking supporters, but whether he will manage to put a dent in the advantage Citu has is unknown. Meanwhile, USR is exploding. Tired of the contempt with which Citu treats them, they had a very tense meeting in which they came close to demanding his resignation, with only the memory of what happened in April stopping them.

In other news, PSD, apparently with help from whatever remains of the PMP, is starting a recall effort against controversial USR Mayor of District 1 Clotilde Armand. To have the recall referendum organized, they need a pretty big number of signatures and the odds are against them. I will update you on what could happen next and the impact of this if PSD manages to get enough people to sign.

Couple of questions: when you say Citu stayed 'there' for 2 days, do you mean jail? I don't imagine this is going to dissuade enough of his supporters to make a difference in the leadership race - the people who would be most turned off probably aren't PNL voters anyway. Also, is the recall procedure/threshold changed in any significant way since the 2012 Băsescu vote? From what you write, it seems that the real hurdle is in collecting signatures, not in getting enough people to turn out to vote. I'd appreciate it if you can elaborate on how Tudorache managed to keep the margin nailbitingly close in the 2020 battle with Armand - Sector 1 should be pretty hostile territory for PSD, especially in 2020.

[RGM2609]

So, a huge scandal has erupted right now - Citu was arrested in the US for driving under the influence while he was a student there. Of course, the information is not such a bombshell itself, as he only stayed there for two days, but rather the fact that he kept it hidden for the past 20 years as he rose through the ranks of politics. Orban claims he did not know and probably Iohannis did not either. Citu, with the hubris that he is now well-known for, refuses to take any responsibility, and he is trying to blame it on whoever leaked it to the press. It is unclear how this will affect the PNL leadership race, which is heating up now more than ever. This gives Orban a bit of a break and an opportunity to go on the offensive after a year of getting abandoned by most of his high-ranking supporters, but whether he will manage to put a dent in the advantage Citu has is unknown. Meanwhile, USR is exploding. Tired of the contempt with which Citu treats them, they had a very tense meeting in which they came close to demanding his resignation, with only the memory of what happened in April stopping them.

In other news, PSD, apparently with help from whatever remains of the PMP, is starting a recall effort against controversial USR Mayor of District 1 Clotilde Armand. To have the recall referendum organized, they need a pretty big number of signatures and the odds are against them. I will update you on what could happen next and the impact of this if PSD manages to get enough people to sign.

Couple of questions: when you say Citu stayed 'there' for 2 days, do you mean jail? I don't imagine this is going to dissuade enough of his supporters to make a difference in the leadership race - the people who would be most turned off probably aren't PNL voters anyway. Also, is the recall procedure/threshold changed in any significant way since the 2012 Băsescu vote? From what you write, it seems that the real hurdle is in collecting signatures, not in getting enough people to turn out to vote. I'd appreciate it if you can elaborate on how Tudorache managed to keep the margin nailbitingly close in the 2019 battle with Armand - Sector 1 should be pretty hostile territory for PSD, especially in 2019.

1. I think he actually stayed at the police station in custody, but that is not very relevant. Now, I do not think that this information is going to change a lot by itself, but it could possibly be the last straw. The support Citu has in the party is a house of cards. He simply does not have enough jobs to give to all of his high-ranking supporters. Some of them may even have to lose their current positions because they were promised to someone else. Meanwhile, Orban has a lot of jobs to give around if he wins, as he has a strong base in the lower ranks of the party but few high-ranking supporters. This news might be the reason they need to switch sides. For example, I do not imagine that Labour Minister Raluca Turcan, who backed Citu from the start, is pleased that she is likely to lose both her Ministry and her vice-presidency of PNL because the Prime Minister promised all of them to someone else if he wins. This of course is merely hypothetical and it could be that indeed the news has no impact.

2. Compared to the Basescu 2012 referendum, the key difference is that only 30% of voters need to turn out instead of 50%. And they need the signatures of 25% of the people living in the district, so if they get the signatures, I do not think the turnout threshold is going to be so hard to reach.

3. This is a very complicated topic that would merit a post of its own, but keeping things simple - District 1 is the piggy bank of crooks and thieves and a place where huge economic interests lie. Tudorache was deeply corrupt, not only did he rig the 2016 election and tried to rig the 2020 election too, but he was also willing to let the mob do whatever it wants. After leaving office, DNA found out that he bought, among other things, diamonds from the huge bribes he received. So it is easy to see why many powerful oligarchs, including media owners, desperately wanted Tudorache to hang on instead of having Armand fighting their schemes. So the main focus of news channels during the campaign was the smearing of Armand (worth noting - the so-called debate in which the moderator bickered with Armand for most of the debate while Tudorache was sitting there watching). Fraud, of course, also played a part, though not as much as if Tudorache had his way. And most importantly, for the aforementioned reasons, I really, really doubt PNL did not help Tudorache more than they helped Armand. The recall effort is happening for the same reason - economic interests under threat.

Sorry for this long, long post and hopefully you are not more confused than before you read it lol

[Beagle]

Thanks! I realized that I actually don't know which offices are subject to recall - president and mayors, presumably also county presidents, but what about legislators/municipal/county councilors?

While fiddling around with the results site, it struck me that this Nicolae Valeriu-Ciolan person  came awfully close to winning a seat as an independent. Why? Have there been actually successful independent campaigns for the lower chamber in recent years?