Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

The so-called Constitutional Court continues to give unjustifiable rulings that come in direct contradiction with the letter of the Constitution. The 6-to-3 PSD majority has now allowed the Parliament to delay the elections until March, despite the Constitution explicitly stating a timeline for elections that make it necessary for them to be held in December. These unbelievable decisions are without a doubt made with the purpose to improve the electoral prospects of PSD and probably to ensure more years on the bench for themselves. Prime Minister Orban has lashed out against the kangaroo court, called it filled with low-level political activists and that it needs to be reformed drastically. Of course, PSD Chairman Marcel Ciolacu has attacked him for it and defended the minions of his party, deeming the statement of the PM as an attack towards the rule of law (which is very ironic even by itself).

The internal war of USR between Dan Barna, its president, and his opponents that are now largely without eligible seats continues, and is likely killing off any momentum gained from the local elections. The capacity of this party to spontaneously implode in the worst possible times continues to shock the nation, and it shows that ultimately egos are bigger than visions.

[RGM2609]

The future of Gabriela Firea, the former Bucharest Mayor, is bright, despite her loss.

The electoral cycle 2019-2020, as well as the years before it, have left a single biggest loser politically - Firea. Her ambitions to become the first woman President are the worst-kept secret in Romanian politics. And she was the only PSD candidate able to give Iohannis a run for his money according to all opinion polls from that year. However, she failed in her goal. Because she never ran. It is possible for her to have thought that winning the Presidency in 2019 would be too difficult given how utterly crushed the party brand was, and thus decided to focus her resources into holding her then-current job. A goal she has also failed to accomplish.

Her main problem, at least in my view, was how closely she associated herself with PSD. Other Mayors with more intuition distanced themselves from PSD exactly when the party started collapsing under Dragnea and his leadership. Do you want to guess if they were re-elected? Anyway, her strategy was bad. She waited and waited and waited inside a hated party for Dragnea to collapse so she can run for the Presidency, only to end up not running after all. Instead, she got associated with the attempts to legalize corruption, the violent crackdown on protests in August 2018 and so much more. The other obvious advantage, the help from party structures, was cancelled by herself when she filled the lists for City Council with all kinds of dubious personalities instead of hard working party men who have been waiting for years.

Distancing from PSD and Dragnea early on would have helped her massively, allowing her to put the blame for all problems facing Bucharest on his Governments and paint herself as an anti-establishment fighter for the people, a narrative that might have been the right one for Bucharest.

Anyway, these mistakes have now been erased by the stupidity of the PSD leadership, which has so kindly decided to send her into Parliament as the head of the list, granting her tremendous coverage and power. They have granted this rising force inside their party an opportunity to continue, despite having the ability to end her political career for good. The current leader, Marcel Ciolacu, has allowed his biggest rival an opportunity to take over the party eventually and maybe even run for Presidency in 2024 like she has long dreamed of. In a massive irony, a deeply conservative party relying on the Patriarchy may end up taking orders from a dynamic, talkative woman, who is above all convinced, to Trump-like levels, of her own value. But maybe she will ruin this chance she has too.

[RGM2609]

In yet another move meant to clearly defy the nation, PSD has given another very high ranking job to Florin Iordache, the man who led Dragnea's assault on the judicial system. While they removed him from their lists for Parliament, they have given him another job as the President of the Legislative Council, a little known institution which maintains the order in the process of proposing bills. This appointment is for life, so PSD may be gone before this horryfing figure leaves his job for which he gets paid a monthly wage of tens of thousands.

Also the merger between ALDE and ProRomania is not yet finished, so Tariceanu and the high ranking members of the party had to resign and join Ponta's party to be able to run. I have discussed this alliance between PSD's biggets satellites before, as it brings Tariceanu and his cronies into the next legislature, but I will continue to keep you updated.

[RGM2609]

In a very significant development for the composition of the next government, the parties which were most likely to govern together are now in a very bitter conflict, doing nothing all day but accusing each other of voting for Iordache.

PNL and USR are in an unprecedented conflict, the reason being that Iordache's vote total was so high that one of these parties had to vote for him, but given that the vote was secret, there is no way to say which one. This escalated so much that now the parties are openly stating they will not, under any circumstances, form a government together. Given how much value Romanian politicians put on their promises, it wouldn't be a surprise for them to ultimately proceed with an coalition anyway, however this does not make things easy, even moreso as there is a high possibility for a PNL-USR government to be the only politically viable coalition to be formed after December.

[RGM2609]

PNL and USR are both still in a conflict that was first about who voted for Florin Iordache and is has long passed that. USR is pledging to not enter a government which is not led by themselves, and PNL keeps attacking the party for supposedly betraying its principles. Alliances at local levels are already breaking down following their national parties starting to go to war and it will be interesting to see who manages to form a government after the elections, if PNL-PMP-UDMR does not have a majority, as the polls taken before the scandal show that is more likely.

Gabriela Firea has basically locked herself in her office and refuses to leave it following the election. Meanwhile, PSD has started 86 trials contesting the local elections, preventing the newly elected Mayor Nicusor Dan from taking office for at least a period of time. Sore losers.

[RGM2609]

Who is, after all, Florin Iordache, and why Romania can not get rid of him

Florin Iordache, the person that started the war between PNL and USR following his election as the head of the Legislative Council, is an engineer. He has a degree in Mechanics, taken in 1985, and the Communist Party has sent him to work in Caracal, his home town, at a furniture factory. After the Revolution, he entered politics, namely in the Socialist Party of Labour.

The Socialist Party of Labour was founded in 1990 by a former communist, Ilie Verdet, and was formed by former diehard activists of PCR, who have refused to enter FSN. Somehow, Iliescu and Roman were too democratic for them. So, after communism was taken down, Iordache has begun his career in a diehard neo-communist party. The party rewarded him with a Deputy Mayor job in 1996. However, in 2000, he realized that the Socialist Party was going straight into the dustbin of history, he joined PDSR, the predecessor of PSD. From there, his rise would be unstoppable.

In a very good year for PDSR, he managed to get elected into Parliament. There, he became part of the Culture Commission. However, his main focus during that term was improving his CV, and got a law degree from an university with ties to PSD. At the end of his first term, he got promoted to Secretary of the Judicial Commission, thanks to his new studies. Meritocracy.

He gets an eligible place on the list in 2004 as well, and during that campaign he gives a lackluster speech in front of an empty room that becomes viral years afterwards. He gets elected again, and becomes Vice President of the Judicial Commission. He continues his studies. He takes postgraduate studies at the National Institute of Administration, sort-of a PSD party school, formed by Nastase to improve the competences of high ranking public officials. Soon, it got involved in a huge corruption scandal.

In 2006, the hard-working Florin Iordache works his hardest. He gets a master in a not-specified field at the private Nicolae Titulescu college, another institution close to his party. And he takes postgraduate studies at the National College of Defense, a fabric of degrees used by most members of Parliament who had empty CVs. Studies at this College are the first sign of imposture in a politician.

This was not enough for Iordache, who then goes to the Free International University in Moldova to take a doctorate in international economics relationships, even as he did not have any prior preparations in the field and dealt mainly with judicial issues in the Parliament. And it was seemingly not a problem to be an MP in Bucharest and study for a doctorate in Chisinau. Years apart, the press discovered the doctorate thesis was plagiarized. This was happening in 2017, when Iordache became  Justice Minister in the first Dragnea Government.

Besides his doctorate in economics, Iordache also likes diplomacy. He is taking postgraduate studies at the Romanian Institute of Diplomacy in 2008, and then stops collecting degrees. He is re-elected in 2008 and 2012 and becomes one of the top legal experts of PSD, orchestrating from behind the scenes most important law proposals written by the party, especially those involving the judicial system.

In 2013, in the middle of the PSD-PNL coalition government, Iordache achieves national notoriety as the author of a proposal to butcher the judicial system and protect corrupt politicians that PSD tried to hiddenly pass in a day that remained known as Dark Tuesday. Eventually, they caved, but Iordache was rising through the party ranks. Eventually, in 2015, after Dragnea takes over the party,  he makes Iordache the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies.

Following PSD taking over power in 2016, Iordache becomes the Minister of Justice, with a clear mission - save Dragnea from going to jail. And he tries to pass, as quickly as possible, an Emergency Order doing just that. However, the backlash from the public, with hundreds of thousands protesting, was so heavy that he had to back down and resign.

His vendetta to save Dragnea from going to jail continues in Parliament, where he leads a Special Committee created to butcher the judicial system. His work there was criticized by the public, the opposition and foreign institutions. In 2020, he is not on the lists again because he sided with Dragnea when he was still roaming free over the people that now lead PSD. But the party had to send him somewhere...

[RGM2609]

The Orban Government still has not presented a budget for the fiscal year 2021, despite it being obligated to do so by 15th October. While virtually no governments, including PSD ones, have followed that guideline, that has not stopped the Social Democrats from loudly fear-mongering about what Orban plans to do to the budget. Their leader, Marcel Ciolacu, has claimed that PNL seeks to not publish a budget until after the election, because they are planning to end the deficit by raising the VAT. The Prime Minister has denied that such plans exist, but many people, especially those owning businesses, are very worried that the government is actually planning to do that. This controversy, but most likely the multiple fiascos regarding the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic from the PNL government during the last two months, have led to two polls being published showing PSD and PNL virtually tied for the first time in two years.

[RGM2609]

PSD is attempting to block the appointment of the new Mayor of District 1 Clotidle Armand, in a similar way to the Mayor of Bucharest, or at least delay it as much as possible.

After their infamous attempt to rig the election a month ago, PSD and their incumbent Mayor have started hundreds of lawsuits demanding the recounting of ballots or for the election results to be cancelled. The stakes here are clear - District 1 of Bucharest is the place with the biggest budget in Romania, and PSD would really like to keep it or at least buy some more time to hide what they have been doing there for the last 4 years. A final ruling may come tomorrow.

[RGM2609]

The courts have finally ruled in the very contested election in the District 1 of Bucharest, the richest Administration in the entire country, in favor of the USR candidate, who will soon be sworn in. The fight in District 1 is always very contentious as all parties are obviously interested in controlling this treasure of public funds, and PSD threw a huge fight both to rig the election 4 years ago and to keep control now. Many hope that the new Mayor will end the string of Mayoral corruption that has been haunting District 1 for a long time, especially as the former Mayor has given hundreds of millions out of the budget to various companies during his lame duck period.

[RGM2609]

IMAS poll for the 6th December legislative election -

PNL - 33% (-2% since last month)
PSD - 22% (+2% since last month)
USR - 20% (+3%)
PRO-ALDE - 12% (-1%)
PMP - 5%
UDMR - 5%

This poll and an USR internal both show USR on the rise, coming close to PSD. While there are yet not enough polls to say that this is a clear trend, it is still worth analyzing - it is possible that the failure of PNL to contain the COVID-19 spread and many others errors in governing will cause some its voters to switch to USR, as well as, now, the popularity of its incumbent Mayors, something it did not have working for it before. So, this is not a certain trend, but it is not hard to see the causes of it if it exists.

Anyway, if this poll is accurate, it is clear that PNL and USR will have to form an alliance. For now, PNL still probably hopes for a PNL-UDMR-PMP-Minorities coalition government, and while it is possible, so far no polls have shown it gaining a majority. A majority not involving USR would probably have to involve Ponta and his ProRomania, something that the PNL electorate may find as too much to swallow. However, the relationship between PNL and USR is going from bad to worse, following the Iordache scandal and many disputes at the local level. So such an coalition will be uneasy.

[Lord Halifax]

However, the relationship between PNL and USR is going from bad to worse, following the Iordache scandal and many disputes at the local level. So such an coalition will be uneasy.

Why do they dislike each other?

[RGM2609]

However, the relationship between PNL and USR is going from bad to worse, following the Iordache scandal and many disputes at the local level. So such an coalition will be uneasy.

Why do they dislike each other?

Well they are competing for the same electorate so, especially during electoral campaign, it is rough for them to co-exist peacefully. They have to draw a contrast between each other. There were always conflicts to some degree but the whole thing exploded last week, after PSD proposed the face of Dragneas attempts to place the judicial system under his control to a lifetime appointment, and the math of the secret vote shows that either PNL or USR voted for him. PNL quickly seized on the opportunity to accuse USR of being the party which voted in favor and USR reciprocated. Both parties could not risk for them to be viewed as the responsible ones so they loudly defended themselves and accused the other, and eventually it reached the point where USR promised not to join another Orban Government. There are a lot of conflicts at the local level as well, after the local elections PNL and USR have struggled to negotiate coalitions in many places, the most visible one being Timisoara. It is very clear that PNL is worried about the right-wing electorate abandoning it following its rough year in government and so it will probably intensify its attacks even more as the election comes closer. 

[RGM2609]

This period is critical for Romania, a de facto parliamentary republic, as the country will decide its future on December 6th. Right now a Romanian can not scroll through their Facebook pages without seeing at least 10 ads from political parties threatening that the country will face death and destruction if they lose.

The PNL Government chose the worst of both worlds and put in place a night-time lockdown, closed schools and tried to weirdly close down small markets of rural producers, drawing quick backlash. These measures leave no side satisfied as hospitals collapse under the overwhelming number of cases. By this point, PSD has started openly advocating for the Swedish model, filled its list with conspirationists and threatens with more lockdowns if PNL wins.

The partisan divides came to light at a Parliamentary hearing called by PSD to address their made-up claims of an incoming massive raise of taxes. During it, the Prime Minister hysterically shouted at PSD Representatives, accusing them of ruining the country. These are not fun days around here.

[RGM2609]

With the election only less than a month away, coalitions are a hot topic right now. And PNL, through the voice of some of its major figures, expresses its desire for a government with PMP and UDMR rather than with USR. The similarities between PNL and the two small right-wing parties are bigger than the ones between the governing party and the centrist-reformist USR..

A majority formed only with the rightist conservatives of PMP and the non-ideological UDMR would ensure the status quo or even, the dominance of PNL by its nationalist right wing rather than the liberal faction embodied by President Iohannis. The main obstacles to this scenario are the President himself, who may pressure his party against such a scenario and the voters, as most recent polls show PNL's prefered coalition falling short of a majority.

[RGM2609]

Tragedy stroke a few days ago when a hospital in Piatra Neamt dedicated to treating people with COVID-19 has partially burnt and caused the death of 10 people. PSD is already demanding for Orban to resign, claiming this is similar to what happened at Colectiv. Meanwhile Iohannis has accused PSD and its local government there of being responsible.

[RGM2609]

The newest xenophobic attack by PSD against President Iohannis has come today and it was a shock to many because of its violence, despite previous accusations of Iohannis being a Nazi and child trafficker being made in 2014.

Aurelian Badulescu, the former Deputy Mayor of Bucharest under Firea, has posted a photoshopped picture of Iohannis wearing the Nazi uniform and put the following text next to it -

Iohannism is the doctrine of destruction of national identity and revival of international marxism. Through its political measures, the doctrine seeks to give up the national sovereignty and hand over the human and natural resources of Romania to Merkel and Macron. Iohannis wants us to give up on our country. He wants for Romanians to be the servants of Europe, and for foreign corporations to make a fortune on our national land while giving us misery wages.

This is only a part of the mind blowing rant which probably shocks those who believe PSD is actually a social democratic party but no one else.

[Estrella]

Who even votes for PMP at this point? What would make someone choose them instead of PNL?

[RGM2609]

Who even votes for PMP at this point? What would make someone choose them instead of PNL?

Probably conservatives unhappy with PNL and its awful government, combined with the few remaining Basescu loyalists and the votes its pretty good ground game can mobilize in rural areas. All 3 are barely enough for 5-6%.

[crals]

PSD complaining about marxism is pretty rich

[PSOL]

Almost like an admittance that Marxism to these reactionary doofuses is good governance

[RGM2609]

Thousands of people are dying, but the biggest concern of the Orthodox Church is fighting against a ban on pilgrimages. After the Government imposed various limits and bans on the mass gatherings organised by the Church, it has fully turned against PNL and not a day passes without more bellicose statements from high ranking priests. One of them even threatened with some kind of a revolution against Iohannis and Orban. How, why and with whom, still unclear.

This has been great for PSD, as now the Church will for sure boost turnout in their favor in rural areas. They promised to remove the ban on pilgrimages shall they win the electiom.

[Mike88]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

[RGM2609]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

This is a poll made public by Victor Ponta, the leader of PRO-ALDE. However, he did not bother to state who conducted this poll, it could as well be made up.

Anyway, PNL-PRO-ALDE was not a coalition option, as PRO-ALDE is a group former by ex-PSDers with similar views as their former party. PNL-UDMR-PMP was the only other option, excluding PNL-USR.

[Mike88]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

This is a poll made public by Victor Ponta, the leader of PRO-ALDE. However, he did not bother to state who conducted this poll, it could as well be made up.

Anyway, PNL-PRO-ALDE was not a coalition option, as PRO-ALDE is a group former by ex-PSDers with similar views as their former party. PNL-UDMR-PMP was the only other option, excluding PNL-USR.

Oh right, wasn't aware of that. It's more an internal polling that an actual poll, and it could, like you said, made up. Is any more polling expected during the week, or is there some kind of polling ban?

[RGM2609]

Latest poll:

31.3% PNL
22.0% PSD
17.0% USR+PLUS
  9.3% PRO+ADLE
  5.4% UDMR
  4.8% PMP
10.2% Others

It seems that PNL and USR are condemned to get along. PNL+PRO+ADLE doesn't seem enough to have a majority. The relations between PNL and USR haven't improved, right?.

This is a poll made public by Victor Ponta, the leader of PRO-ALDE. However, he did not bother to state who conducted this poll, it could as well be made up.

Anyway, PNL-PRO-ALDE was not a coalition option, as PRO-ALDE is a group former by ex-PSDers with similar views as their former party. PNL-UDMR-PMP was the only other option, excluding PNL-USR.

Oh right, wasn't aware of that. It's more an internal polling that an actual poll, and it could, like you said, made up. Is any more polling expected during the week, or is there some kind of polling ban?

I would say that some polls will come out during the final week, I am particularly waiting for the IMAS monthly poll, but the lack of polls during this campaign has been surprising and it probably reflects a lack of interest for this campaign, despite it being the only one which actually matters.