Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

Dancila - new weird statements

While the rest of the political scene seems to be rather quiet during this hot days around here, Viorica Dancila seems desperate to shock by saying falsehoods. In the context of President Iohannis's visit to Donald Trump come August 20th, she claimed the President somehow needed her approval to go, as well as the one of the PSD-controlled Parliament's. That is a shocking statement given the fact that the President actually leads Romania's foreign policy. The gaffe-loving Prime Minister also claims that Iohannis is going there just to make photos with Trump, and she should make him an agenda on which he should report to the people. The diplomacy of "making photos" was risen to the rank of art by no other then Liviu Dragnea, Dancila's former political master, who in an attempt to gain prestige, dictated on live TV that Romania should move its Embassy to Jerusalem, without even announcing the President, who leads the foreign policy as I said. Iohannis opposed this power grab, and this escalated to an embarassing circus lasting for a few months, with Benjamin Netanyahu canceling his visit twice. At the end, Dragnea-Dancila got their way, but the prestige expected to be gained didn't materialise for them. So pretty rich of Dancila to accuse others of using diplomacy to make photos. Also, she said that the underdogs won the last 3 presidential elections so she isn't worried about the polls that show her far, far behing. While this is technically true, none of the above-mentioned underdogs start at such a low level as her, and also, the PSD candidates were the ones in the last 3 elections who were upset by them, soo...not a good comparison there.

[RGM2609]

Thank you for having you on the forum. Do you have an idea who i would vote for in Romania if i vote PVDA-PTB in Belgium (a bit to the left than Sanders, BE (Portugal), Podemos, Corbyn's Labour and similar to PCF and PaP in Italy. Or are the social dems really the best option. Are they truly left-wing?

Definetly not. There are American billionares, fascist movements and authentic conservatives that are to the left of PSD economically, socially or both. About the vote - hmm. If you are integrated in the Romanian current debate (details in the thread), you'd most likely vote for USR-PLUS, because I doubt you like Neo-Feudalism. If you continue to vote based on Western ideologies tho, I think you'd vote for a small activist party named Demos.

It depends on whether USR-PLUS is more like M5S or En Marche. I dislike EM, but like M5S. I like an anti-corruption platform but i am skeptical of other policies.

Yeah, I think they are more like En Marche, altho they aren't in government, so an opposition En Marche idk. So not USR PLUS. My best bet is Demos.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Thank you for having you on the forum. Do you have an idea who i would vote for in Romania if i vote PVDA-PTB in Belgium (a bit to the left than Sanders, BE (Portugal), Podemos, Corbyn's Labour and similar to PCF and PaP in Italy. Or are the social dems really the best option. Are they truly left-wing?

Definetly not. There are American billionares, fascist movements and authentic conservatives that are to the left of PSD economically, socially or both. About the vote - hmm. If you are integrated in the Romanian current debate (details in the thread), you'd most likely vote for USR-PLUS, because I doubt you like Neo-Feudalism. If you continue to vote based on Western ideologies tho, I think you'd vote for a small activist party named Demos.

It depends on whether USR-PLUS is more like M5S or En Marche. I dislike EM, but like M5S. I like an anti-corruption platform but i am skeptical of other policies.

Yeah, I think they are more like En Marche, altho they aren't in government, so an opposition En Marche idk. So not USR PLUS. My best bet is Demos.

I think Demos as well. Have seen their website, and it looks great. Unfortunately it doesn't have a lot of electoral support yet.

[RGM2609]

Thank you for having you on the forum. Do you have an idea who i would vote for in Romania if i vote PVDA-PTB in Belgium (a bit to the left than Sanders, BE (Portugal), Podemos, Corbyn's Labour and similar to PCF and PaP in Italy. Or are the social dems really the best option. Are they truly left-wing?

Definetly not. There are American billionares, fascist movements and authentic conservatives that are to the left of PSD economically, socially or both. About the vote - hmm. If you are integrated in the Romanian current debate (details in the thread), you'd most likely vote for USR-PLUS, because I doubt you like Neo-Feudalism. If you continue to vote based on Western ideologies tho, I think you'd vote for a small activist party named Demos.

It depends on whether USR-PLUS is more like M5S or En Marche. I dislike EM, but like M5S. I like an anti-corruption platform but i am skeptical of other policies.

Yeah, I think they are more like En Marche, altho they aren't in government, so an opposition En Marche idk. So not USR PLUS. My best bet is Demos.

I think Demos as well. Have seen their website, and it looks great. Unfortunately it doesn't have a lot of electoral support yet.

That just shows how NOT left vs right the society is. When all parties except USR-PLUS (who is actually a mixture of progressives, centrists and conservatives under a centrist platform, a banner of modernisation and representing basically the political way for the supporters of Western models to fight PSD) could easily be described as Rightist Conservatives, in any other country to the West of Romania, a leftist party like Demos would rise immediately.

[RGM2609]

The coalition drama reaches its ending point

The expiring date of the ultimatum that ALDE placed on Dancila and PSD is today - and the PM has not followed its terms, which involve a new govt platform and the dismissal of some Secretaries. Not only that but she seemed to... ignore Tariceanu and his demands, not attending the Coalition meeting of today despite not having any reasons for doing so. Also today, Dancila will leave the country and meet with Ursula von der Leyern, likely to lobby for her awful Commissar candidates. This attitude seems strange, especially as if ALDE leaves, she is out of coalition partner options. UDMR vocally said they will not join any government headed by PSD, despite them being loyal partners of the same PSD in the Dragnea Era, likely because they fear the electoral consequences if they join the government. And the ProRomania option is now clearly off the table too, as Ponta revealed on Facebook that he had a meeting with Dancila, where he went with 5 conditions to join the govt. Dancila, probably not understanding them, quickly agreed with the 4 conditions on policies, but rejected the 5th demanding her to back down from running for President. Then, she called on a vote in the PSD Council, claiming that the party rejected a coalition with Pro Romania. This started a Facebook war in which Dancila called Ponta a "liar", a "double-faced", a "attention seeker" and a " backroom dealer" while Ponta called Dancila "illiterate", "the puppet of oligarchs" and accused her the speeches of Liviu Dragnea. Both are correct about the other. We'll see what happens today, but one thing is clear: if ALDE leaves, a new government is improbable to form, leading to snap elections likely in the same day with the presidential one, in November.

[RGM2609]

Big day in foreign policy

Today Klaus Iohannis met with US President Trump at the White House. They discussed the visas for Romanians and the security of the country against any attacks. At the end of the meeting President Trump had kind words for Romania and Iohannis, honouring the progress my country has made, saying Iohannis is very respected and does a great job, as well as mentioning the ever improving Romanian-American relationship.
Viorica Dancila also went to an important meeting today with Ursula von der Leyern, however any details failed to reach Bucharest. The fact that Plumb and Nica never went to a hearing with der Leyern however shows that their appointment was likely rejected.

[RGM2609]

ALDE doesn't leave the government for now

Despite Dancila's refusal to respect ALDE's ultimatum which expired 2 days ago, the party isn't leaving the coalition and said they will "discuss what to do in the next month". After a meeting between Tariceanu and PM Dancila, they said they will discuss "results, perspectives and options" in September inside the party. This stumble just adds to ALDE's failures this years: the failed attempt to convince Dragnea to accept Tariceanu as PSD's candidate for Presidency, the epic failure from the EU election, when they did not reach the threshold and got 4% despite targeting 10%, the failure to dominate the coalition after Dragnea went down, the failure to get Ponta's party in the coalition and now this. At the same meeting, the 2 corrupts have decided that PSD-ALDE will participate in the extraordinary session of Parliament the opposition asked for and reject some stuck bills backed by Dragnea when he was rulling the nation (one written by the corrupt politicians 's most proeminent backer, Florin Iordache, and meant to bail them out of jail).
The EU Commissar drama however goes on. Dancila said she asked Von der Leyern for an important position like Transportation, Energy or the Environment, however no one knows who will occupy the position Romania will get. Dancila seems to drop Nica and stick with Plumb. We'll see

[crals]

PSD seem to be a complete trainwreck of a party. Why were they reelected with such a big margin in 2016?

[Estrella]

What kind of people vote for ALDE? The same embarassed ex-PSD crowd that supports Ponta?

[RGM2609]

PSD seem to be a complete trainwreck of a party. Why were they reelected with such a big margin in 2016?

In terms of raw votes they didn't perform that well: 3.2 million votes from their natural electorate of about 4. However, their main opponent, PNL, was caught in a really bad spot: huge internal division, no clue on what message to promote, the ousting of Ponta and no PSD govt for the last year left the society apathic, just came from a huge defeat at the local elections, USR took away the votes of many well-educated people. That, together with PSD carefully avoiding to anger anyone during the campaign, led to a massive crash: 1.4 million votes for PNL, and left PSD the winner of a very low turnout election

[RGM2609]

What kind of people vote for ALDE? The same embarassed ex-PSD crowd that supports Ponta?

It is a mystery to me too lol. I used to think that the embarrassed crowd is equally split between ALDE and Ponta, but the EU election made me think that 80-90% of those voters are Ponta's not ALDE's. As of right now, I think a few hundreds of thousands of voters are supporting ALDE and they are a combo of party members, voters from rural areas that are brought to vote by ALDE's few local officials, ex-PNL voters who left with Tariceanu in 2014, retirees who watch Antena 3/RTV a lot and bureaucrats who remember how good they were payed when Tariceanu was PM and now that he is in power, uniting the dots.

[RGM2609]

Sadly nothing of note happened today, however tommorow Viorica Dancila will have her launching rally, that could be fun. Also following the crimes from Caracal, PSD is preparing in a publicity stunt an Emergency Order to raise punishments for criminals, rapists and other violent offenders, after they themselfes lowered said punsihments across the board in an effort to save Dragnea from going to jail.

[RGM2609]

Dancila changes Cabinet, new nominees face backlash, ALDE continues to humiliate itself

Today, Viorica Dancila announced a few changes to the Cabinet positions. The Education Secretary position would be taken by Serban Valeca, a nationalist in the 1990s who got into social-democracy after Adrian Nastase made him the Secretary of Research in 2000-2004, a position he also occupied for 6 months in 2017, and lacks any accomplishments to justify his appointment. This naming was necessary due to Dancila finally removing Ecaterina Andronescu, the one who buried the educational system in her 4 terms as Secretary, but not due to her sheer incompetence but due to her opposing Dancila within the party and refusing to postpone the start of school by a week to satisfy the hotel owners. However, the acting Secretary also refused to postpone, so he was not kept. The Homeland Security Secretary would be Mihai Fifor, this appointment being the least controversial. The one which started a lot of controversies was the one at Justice, where Ana Birchall was shockingly removed from her position to become the Deputy PM on Strategic Partenerships. This removal was because Birchall refused to appoint PSD members to jobs in the Department and wanted to disband Dragnea's Special Direction for Investigating Justices and Prosecuters. The one to replace her would be Dana Girbovan, the President of the Judge's Union, and a known supporter of Dragnea's attempts to shut down the judicial system. This appointment got a lot of heat, PNL and USR-PLUS attacking Girbovan's loud endorsement of all Executive Orders, Judicial Commissions, Special Directions and Legislative Modifications started by Dragnea, to some of which her organisation, which is contested by many judges, took an active part in. She also is an fierce opponent of the anti-corruption crusade started by the National Direction Against Corruption and a supporter of corrupt politicians. Some even compared her with the hated Florin Iordache. Another nominee taking some heat was Iulian Iancu, the new Deputy PM for Economical Matters, who is known as the voice of Russia's gas interests in Romania, blocking for many years the exploitation of gas in the Black Sea, forcing from the Industry Committee many modifications on the matter that advantaged Russia.
ALDE still hasn't waken up from its defeats and still threatens to ally with ProRomania and leave the government. After Dancila won the coalition game, they know they can't reasonably leave after all of this, but still threaten to. It is sad how low this party has gotten. I am 80% sure ALDE will not leave the government, because Tariceanu would likely care more for his parliamentary immunity and Senate Chairman position then for Ponta or his (Tariceanu's) failed from the beginning quest for the Presidency. But he has done surprising things before.

[RGM2609]

Would you like me to use pictures from now on?

[RGM2609]

PSD Congress validates Viorica Dancila as party's presidential nominee

After almost 3 years of PSD-ALDE governing, the Romanians might not have too much bread. But they definetly didn't lack circus today. 1.000 people all around the country were brought up to clap when asked and listen more or less carefully to the slogans shouted today from the stage. The Prime Minister went into the room and was overwhelmed by people giving her flowers and trying to kiss her hand. She came together with Serghei Stanisev, who proudly announced that the relationships between PSD and PES returned to normalcy thanks to Viorica Dancila (Am really disappointed by PES allowing this corrupt right-wing party in their ranks). Then the Homeland Security Secreatry and Treasury Secretary went on to give speeches praising their new boss, once again showing how spineless some people from this party can be, and with this came the rousing speech of the PSD nominee for President. She said she grew up in a small town in a working class family and started getting involved with PSD 23 years ago, by putting up posters on walls and conducting door-to-door campaigning. The PM also said the country can't be run from Cotroceni or Parliament, but from between people. She also goes on about safety for people and the rule of law, when her own government made a laughing stock out of those notions by freeing serial killers and rapists to allow some corrupt politicians to leave too, saying she started a fight against criminality and the abuse against children - good goals, but given her track record, I doubt anything will come out of this fights -, promised reforms in the disastreous healthcare and education system, praised the growth in wages which bankrupted the budget and other on-paper accomplishments of the Dragnea Cabinets, attacked Iohannis by saying "a President isn't going to EU to answer, but to represent", Barna with "he builds up hatred in people's souls", and them both by "they are not close to Romanians, nor do they love them". Also in a weird rant towards PNL and USR-PLUS halfway through her speech she said: "they are walking over dead bodies", "they are cynical, cruel and hateful towards the Romanian people" and "they don't get what the people want". After this "extraordinary" speech, she went back to her only weapon - appeals to Christianity and Feminism. Classy! Somehow the people in the room still clapped.
Obviously after this, PNL and USR-PLUS responded forcefully, with Barna saying that he is so out-of-touch that he is going to small towns in Moldova by truck while Dancila visits party HQs by helicopter, and the PNL leader claiming Dancila should first try to win in her small town where she lost the Mayoral election in a landslide, before running for President. It is highely unlikely Dancila will get anywhere close to the Presidency. She is polling at historical lows for PSD and its candidates and even entering the 2nd round seems out-of-reach for her, which would be a humiliation for thia giant party but a much needed gift for Romania.

[RGM2609]

Presidential stage taking shape

Besides President Iohannis and Prime Minister Dancila, a lot of parties also need to decide who they want to support. USR-PLUS seems decided to run with Barna, however USR will have its Congress in a few days and Barna is challenged by Cosette Chirchirau. In the unlikely event in which his chanlenger wins, it will create an weird situation and also doom his run for the Presidency. PMP, the party of Traian Basescu, decided to run with Theodor Paleologu, a rather surprising, unexpected choice. He is a right-wing intelectual, very appreciated by urban educated people. This, combined with the choice of Mihail Neamtu, another right-wing, very conservative intelectual, which left PNL for PMP, as the campaign's spokesmen, makes it clear to what type of people they are trying to appeal to. I doubt Paleologu will crack more then 5%, as Basescu is still massively unpopular with just a few loyal fans, and it will be impossible for PMP candidate not to be associated with him, even as the fmr. President largely stayed out of the national politics after he was elected to serve in Bruxelles. Besides, the candidate is not the only one appealing to urban residents, educated people - Iohannis and Barna are both popular amongst them, even more so then Paleologu. Pro Romania seems inclined to support another unexpected candidate, after Victor Ponta declined to run and likely lose again to Iohannis. That is Mircea Diaconu, a former actor and European MP, very popular amongst open PSD and PSD-embarassed fans and a protege of Antena 3, the TV channel which serves as propaganda for PSD together with Romania TV and watched by many, many retirees. This is a very good choice for Pro Romania, and adds another huge burden to Dancila's struggling candidacy. Ponta said he is open to support him and unless they came up with a better choice, it is safe to assume Diaconu will run for them. The only mystery now is ALDE. According to sources, Ponta has convinced his fellow party members to accept an alliance with ALDE, to which some of them were deeply opposed previously, by conditioning it with tough demands - Tariceanu to drop his candidacy for President and support Diaconu, resign from the Senate Chairmanship and basically let Ponta run the alliance, and ALDE to leave the government. The next 3 days will be crucial in this matter, and I mentain my doubts that Tariceanu will accept such conditions and leave the government, but we will see.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING: ALDE leaves government, will vote for the motion of no confidence PNL prepared.     

Seems like I was wrong. Oops. Update on the official announcment in a few hours.

[RGM2609]

ALDE leaves coalition, creating massive uncertainty

ALDE, PSD's coalition partner and former puppet party, rebelled today and left the PSD-ALDE governing coalition, leaving Romania without a majority. Weirdly, the thing happened exactly as the leaked Ponta conditions said - Tariceanu resigned from his office at the Senate, backed down from the coalition, supported Mircea Diaconu and is likely to take a back seat. An electoral alliance with Pro Romania will be made, and the 2 parties will support Diaconu in the presidential race, as well as run together in the local and parliamentary elections next year. So the presidential race will be: Iohannis (PNL) vs Barna (USR-PLUS) vs Dancila (PSD) vs Diaconu (ALDE-ProRO) vs Paleologu (PMP), with only 3 of those having a shot at the 2nd round.
The entire political scene is shocked by this. PNL will put forward an motion of no confidence, and USR-PLUS, UDMR, PMP, ALDE and Pro Romania all announced they will vote for it, so unless a wave of MPs deflect to PSD (unlikely as the wave of defections seems to be from PSD to Pro Romania and ALDE) or 1-2 of the parties change their mind (unlikely - they all hate PSD), the Dancila Cabinet will be over. Despite this, the PM pledged to fight until the end and try by all means to stay in power - one of ALDE Secretaries refused to resign, Dancila might hope she is followed by more members, which is unlikely as well. So she is 90% ed up. If/when she gets removed from power - snap elections will take place or Iohannis names another technocratic government as USR-PLUS would never collab with ALDE for example and that alone kills any possible majority. Where does that leave the pres. race - it remains to be seen. But PSD is the biggest loser of this events - and might lose everything.

[RGM2609]

Nothing of note happened today, everyone reaffirming the stances I mentioned yesterday. Iohannis said he will comment tomorrow on the crisis, very interesting what he will say, and Iar ma launched his campaign today at a rally, reaffirming USR-PLUS's key messages

[RGM2609]

Iohannis sends the Cabinet to be reconfirmed by Parliament

President Klaus Iohannis (PNL) said in a press statement today that he will not accept the changes in the structure of the Cabinet, thus sending the Viorica Dancila Government back to the Parliament to be reconfirmed. There, PSD lacks about 30 votes, which they have been desperately trying to win with defectors from ALDE. Their efforts, despite many statements and negociations, have been so far fruitless, and even if they achieved a breakthrough in Tariceanu's party, it is doubtful there are going to be enough MPs to change the tides.
Meanwhile, the opposition is not decided on what to do if the govt fails. UDMR said they are willing to support a new political government, PNL said they want to push for snap elections, USR-PLUS said they'd support a technocratic government but not join a political one and ALDE+ProRomania were unclear, Ponta even seeming to leave a door open to a PSD colaboration. So complete chaos there. Iohannis's decission will be most likely the decisive one.
And a fun element, the actor and former MP with no accomplishments other then supporting Dragnea, Mircea Diaconu, said that, if elected, he will never step foot in the Cotroceni Palace (Romanian equivalent for the White House). WTF.

[RGM2609]

Not much happened today, except for Dancila making weird statements that even if her Cabinet does not get the confidence from the Parliament, she is gonna stay PM, and USR-PLUS changing its stance and saying they are willing to enter a political government.

[RGM2609]

PSD Leaders reunited at Constanta in a Council and attacked Iohannis - threating to reach to the Constitutional Court to force him to appoint their Deputies and sue him because he called their government "incompetent and corrupt", all the while all parties are gathering up votes to take them down from government.

[RGM2609]

The motion of no confidence - where do the main parties stand?

It is very unlikely for PM Dancila to gather up the 29 votes she misses for having a majority, assuming Ponta doesn't take a few more MPs from PSD. She may gather on her side the national minorities - and those are only 18 MPs, which is not enough. Never was PSD more isolated on the political scene.
Paradoxally, the attacks from all sides and the threatened position may advantage Dancila at the presidentials, because the perspective of losing the government is the only thing that can mobilise a disappointed and more and more ineffective PSD aparatus, especially the Mayors.
Exluding the victim card that she wanted to do a lot but can't anymore, Dancila can also send said aparatus a very clear message: either we get a decent enough score to somehow stay in power or I lose in a disaster - but you too lose the government.
On the other side, there is no clear coalition to take the government.
PNL and USR-PLUS have candidates for the presidential election as the 2 frontrunners, in such a situation they won't be able to form a coalition, but even if they do - the situation in which the incompetence and corruption of Dragnea and Dancila brought the country in is going to be payed by their new coalition.
Victor Ponta managed to break the coalition apart, but doesn't want to make enemies in PSD by sending it in opposition and join a PNL-USR-PLUS coalition. Victor Ponta wants to take over PSD once Dancila makes a fool out of herself at the polls and this new PSD to take the government.
Neither ALDE, with its 4%, can't make any demands, but the presidentials can make its position stronger.
That is the part Mircea Diaconu has to play - no one thinks he will actually win, but a good percentage could be helpful for Pro Romania and ALDE.
From where would Diaconu take votes? From the PSD electorate, and massively so, because he appeals to the nationalist electorate and communists nostalgics combined.
With Diaconu, ALDE would try to erase the 4% from the EU elections, and Pro Romania to finish off Viorica Dancila, offering an alternative to PSD, which they seek to take over. They especially target the local aparatus, which is the hardest to build for a new party.
So all actors are intersted in keeping Viorica Dancila as acting PM until the presidential elections, especially President Iohannis, which risks remaining without a clear opponent and face tough decissions in the middle of the elections, shall she leave.

[RGM2609]

Shocking proposal by PSD for Senate Chairmanship

The proposal PSD made for the job of Senate Chairman left everyone surprised. Even tho many party bosses wanted the comfortable position, Viorica Dancila decided to nominate Former Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodor Melescanu of ALDE for the job. Melescanu remarked himself as Secretary for his failures: he twice managed to botch the diaspora voting process, forcing the people to sit hours in line - and some didn't even get to vote after all this times, he also allowed Dragnea to move the Embassy to Jerusalem without any comments, and supported Vladimir Plahotniuc against Maia Sandu in Moldova. This nomination shows how desperate Dancila is to take a part of ALDE on her side - it remains to be seen wether it will work.

[RGM2609]

Sorry for no update during the last 2 days - I was very busy, but I am getting back on track today