Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Lechasseur]

By the way, is Orban still the PM?

[Lechasseur]

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Despite the (doubtless superficial) ideological differences, PSD sound very like the UK Tories

Well when you get down to it, both of the main parties in Romania are basically conservative at this point if I'm not wrong.

[RGM2609]

By the way, is Orban still the PM?

Yes, the Parliament was forced by the coronavirus crisis to give him full power again, even as they were the ones to take them away from him in the first place.

[RGM2609]

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Despite the (doubtless superficial) ideological differences, PSD sound very like the UK Tories

Well when you get down to it, both of the main parties in Romania are basically conservative at this point if I'm not wrong.

Given that most of what parties do is either for personal or electoral gain, it is very hard to categorize them ideologically, however based on the few ideologically coherent actions I would say that PNL is a classic liberal/mainstream conservative party while the PSD is a nationalist/Trumpist conservative party (sometimes openly like when Dragnea was in charge, sometimes more quietly like right now). Given that USR is centrist at best and other parties are also rightist (again, based on the very few ideologically coherent actions), the political scene in Romania now is very heavily tilted towards the right (if or when the main debate will become left vs right, that will quickly change).

Now, related to the UK Tories. You are right, they are quite similar. As a fun fact, on all demographic categories (except social class, but the same social class in Romania is very different from what it is in the UK), the categories likely to vote for Tories in the UK are safe PSD or at least friendly to that god awful party here.

[Lechasseur]

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Despite the (doubtless superficial) ideological differences, PSD sound very like the UK Tories

Well when you get down to it, both of the main parties in Romania are basically conservative at this point if I'm not wrong.

Given that most of what parties do is either for personal or electoral gain, it is very hard to categorize them ideologically, however based on the few ideologically coherent actions I would say that PNL is a classic liberal/mainstream conservative party while the PSD is a nationalist/Trumpist conservative party (sometimes openly like when Dragnea was in charge, sometimes more quietly like right now). Given that USR is centrist at best and other parties are also rightist (again, based on the very few ideologically coherent actions), the political scene in Romania now is very heavily tilted towards the right (if or when the main debate will become left vs right, that will quickly change).

Now, related to the UK Tories. You are right, they are quite similar. As a fun fact, on all demographic categories (except social class, but the same social class in Romania is very different from what it is in the UK), the categories likely to vote for Tories in the UK are safe PSD or at least friendly to that god awful party here.

What do you mean about the social classes being different? In which way?

[RGM2609]

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Despite the (doubtless superficial) ideological differences, PSD sound very like the UK Tories

Well when you get down to it, both of the main parties in Romania are basically conservative at this point if I'm not wrong.

Given that most of what parties do is either for personal or electoral gain, it is very hard to categorize them ideologically, however based on the few ideologically coherent actions I would say that PNL is a classic liberal/mainstream conservative party while the PSD is a nationalist/Trumpist conservative party (sometimes openly like when Dragnea was in charge, sometimes more quietly like right now). Given that USR is centrist at best and other parties are also rightist (again, based on the very few ideologically coherent actions), the political scene in Romania now is very heavily tilted towards the right (if or when the main debate will become left vs right, that will quickly change).

Now, related to the UK Tories. You are right, they are quite similar. As a fun fact, on all demographic categories (except social class, but the same social class in Romania is very different from what it is in the UK), the categories likely to vote for Tories in the UK are safe PSD or at least friendly to that god awful party here.

What do you mean about the social classes being different? In which way?

In the way of voting. In the UK, the choice is between the socialist Labour and the more and more Trumpist Conservative Party. The poor will choose Labour while the rich will choose the Conservatives for obvious reasons. However, in Romania, the choice is between the neo-conservative PNL and the still conservative but more likely to favor spending PSD. The poor will vote for PSD because in theory it gives them the chance to live a more prosperous life, while the middle class and rich people will prefer the approach of PNL compared to the one of PSD which always causes crisis in the economy. On all other demographic categories, the categories voting for PSD in Romania are more likely to vote for Tories in the UK (retirees, people with no degree, males etc.)

[RGM2609]

Today was the first day of complete lockdown in Romania. The army went out on the streets with guns and other weapons used in combat, and together with the police, checked any person who was outside their house if they were there for any justified reason. More restrictions were applied to people over 65 years old, who are allowed to leave their house for any justified reason only between 11 am and 1 pm. Meanwhile, the authorities are planning to test all residents of Bucharest for COVID-19. 3 more people die today and over 100 new cases were registered, adding to a total of 17 deaths and 906 cases (of which about 100 have been healed). Meanwhile, there is a severe lack of medical protection equipment, which is causing doctors to get coronavirus. In Suceava, a city in the North East near the border with Ukraine, over 100 doctors and nurses went sick due to this.

[Estrella]

I've just watched the movie Colectiv (it's on HBO Go, if anyone is interested) about the fire in the nightclub of the same name which killed 64 people and led to the fall of Ponta government. I can only recommend watching it - it puts a whole lot of things that are happening in Romanian politics and society into perspective. Now I understand the outrage this tragedy sparked - I apologize to the good ones, but, frankly, a large part of Romanian healthcare administrators, contractors and yes, doctors and nurses, make Marcelo Odebrecht or Gaetano Badalamenti look like paragons of moral probity or at least doing their f-ing job and not killing people - and when they do, the mafia at least does it for a purpose, not out of laziness.

Seriously, I think I've never been made so angry and emotional by a movie before. Let's hope that things have improved at least a little since then, because somehow I don't think that 100x diluted disinfectant is going to be very effective against coronavirus.

Sorry for the rant.

[RGM2609]

I've just watched the movie Colectiv (it's on HBO Go, if anyone is interested) about the fire in the nightclub of the same name which killed 64 people and led to the fall of Ponta government. I can only recommend watching it - it puts a whole lot of things that are happening in Romanian politics and society into perspective. Now I understand the outrage this tragedy sparked - I apologize to the good ones, but, frankly, a large part of Romanian healthcare administrators, contractors and yes, doctors and nurses, make Marcelo Odebrecht or Gaetano Badalamenti look like paragons of moral probity or at least doing their f-ing job and not killing people - and when they do, the mafia at least does it for a purpose, not out of laziness.

Seriously, I think I've never been made so angry and emotional by a movie before. Let's hope that things have improved at least a little since then, because somehow I don't think that 100x diluted disinfectant is going to be very effective against coronavirus.

Sorry for the rant.

You are absolutely right. Romanian schools certainly produce very good doctors, but the problem is that the rotten corruption of the system here made most of them go to Germany, Italy, Spain or other countries to practice their jobs, allowing hospitals here at home to be filled with political hacks and incompetent people. No party has been willing to actually do any real reform related to healthcare, preferring instead the more easy solution of throwing money at the problem (95% of which is either stolen or used for wage hikes which while necessary, do not do anything to return our doctors home from overseas, because of the miserable conditions the state provides). As such, our hospitals are miserable, full of viruses and germs, overfilled with spiders and bugs and other such things, and a lot of the people there have no clue what they are doing (as they were appointed either because of their contacts or the lack of qualified people). Because of all of this, horror movies were literally filmed in a hospital. It would be funny if it would not be so sad, and the sad truth is that a lot of people leave more sick than they came. Perhaps not that surprisingly, I think PSD is the party guilty of this for the most part, because they governed for most years after the revolution, governed through stable periods with good economy and had all opportunity to do something. Instead, they created this horrible system. However, the other parties are certainly not martyrs of healthcare reform, basically doing nothing to fix the mess PSD created either because they had other, more urgent priorities or they simply did not care enough. Because of all of this, the Romanian healthcare system is on the brink of collapse even in peaceful times, which is why there was such a high accent on prevention measures, as the government knew that if this is allowed to get bad early, the system will collapse. However, it seemed like this was not enough and our beloved, money-taking, illness-spreading healthcare system will be put to a test. And while the media tries to show the success stories in the times of crisis, and the government largely sent patients were it knew they could get appropriate care, this will not be possible if the number of cases skyrockets. Sorry for this long post, I just wanted to express my views on this crucial issue.

New IMAS poll
PNL - 37% (47% in January)
PSD - 24% (21% in January)
USR-PLUS - 19% (15% in January)
Pro Romania - 6% (4% in January)
UDMR - 5% (5% in January)
PMP - 4% (2% in January)
ALDE - 4% (3% in January)

The percentage needed to get seats in the Parliament is 5%. I chose to show you the results from January, not mid-February, in order to get a sense of the larger trend/

[RGM2609]

Some INSCOP polls related to the new Coronavirus and how the crisis is seen by the population

92% think it is important for the government to support companies facing economical difficulties due to COVID-19 (64% say it is extremely important), while 5% think this has little importance.

94% think it is important to support public and private projects to stimulate the economy and create jobs (72% say it is extremely important), while 3% think this has little importance.

87% approve of giving loans with low interest to companies which make investments and create jobs, while 10% disapprove.

79% approve of the government paying its debt to private companies, while 14% disapprove.

The main source of information regarding Coronavirus is, for 71%, Television, while 9% say online press, 8% say the web pages of authorities, 7% say social media and 2% say radio stations.

51% think there is a high or moderate risk for them to contact the virus, while 44% say the risk is low or non-existent.

94% approve of the declaration of the state of emergency, 91% think the economy is going to be affected and 97% think the government should help the people affected economically by the virus.

Some popular measures for the government to take, according to this poll, would be the delay of all payments of loans to banks and the government paying some share of wages if the employer does not fire anyone.

[Estrella]

Thanks to Colectiv and corona-induced boredom, I've decided to turn my interest in Romanian politics into something creative.

Here it goes — the diagram of all Romanian legislative elections since 1990!

Some notes before we get to it, though:
1) Romania is a bicameral country
2) That in itself wouldn't be a problem, if it wasn't constantly trying to beat Italy in the competition to create world's most demented electoral system
3) As a consequence of 2), both chambers have a similar composition, but a wildly varying number of members from election to election
4) Hence I decided to add the parties' seats in both houses together and display them as a share of the whole legislature, whatever its size is. The numbers show the parties' total number of seats in Chamber+Senate.

^{Right click for a bigger version}

Ugh.

As you can see, Romania suffers from the typical Eastern European problem of having way too many parties and not much in the way of "block politics". To help you make sense of the above piece of abstract art, I decided to put most of the parties in one of two "families", each named after their founding party: National Salvation Front and National Liberal Party. Note that these blocks don't really exist, I just came up with them to make this less of a mess.

THE‌ FRONT FAMILY — parties descended, in one way or another, from the elite that got into power after Ceaușescu's overthrow, including past iterations of PSD and their official or unofficial allies.

FSN | Frontul Salvării Naționale | National Salvation Front — a big-tent alliance of anti-Ceaușescu ("reformist" would be too strong a word) Communist forces, led by Ion Iliescu and Petre Roman.

FDSN‌ | Frontul Democrat al Salvării Nationale | Democratic National Salvation Front — an authoritarian split-off from FSN led by Iliescu.

MER‌ | Mișcarea Ecologistă din România | Romanian Ecologist Movement — a pseudo-green front for FSN (think Mexican PVEM).

PSM | Partidul Socialist al Muncii | Socialist Party of Labor — self-explanatory

PDSR / UN | Partidul Democrației Sociale in România / Polul Democrat-Social din România / Uniunea Națională PSD+PUR | Party of Social Democracy in Romania / Social Democratic Pole of Romania / National Union PSD+PUR — For all intents and purposes, the predecessors of today's PSD, either as a standalone party or a coalition with small satellite parties.

USL | Uniunea Social Liberală | Social Liberal Union — a short-lived alliance of PSD and PNL against PD-L and Traian Băsescu.

PSD‌ | Partidul Social Democrat | Social Democratic Party — the winner of 2016 elections, until recently Romania's governing criminal organization old Securitate boys' club "party"

ALDE | Alianța Liberalilor și Democraților | Alliance of Liberals and Democrats — No, no, no, we definitely aren't the people who helped get Dragnea into power and supported PSD until it became inconvenient...


THE‌‌ LIBERAL‌ FAMILY — Of course, "liberal" here is the opposite of "authoritarian" more than anything else Westerners will imagine associated with liberalism — indeed, these parties are mostly conservative.

PNL | Partidul National Liberal | National Liberal Party — a continuation of the interwar party of the same name, excluding the Băsescu era the main opposition to the Front family, pretty much standard conservatives. Party of current PM Ludovic Orban and President Klaus Iohannis.

PNȚCD | Partidul Național Țărănesc Creștin Democrat | Christian Democratic National Peasants' Party — essentially PNL for rural folks, at least in theory, in reality probably indistinguishable from them.

CDR | Convenţia Democrată Română | Romanian Democratic Convention — an alliance between PNL and PNȚCD to consolidate their forces against Iliescu.

USD / PD | Uniunea Social Democrata / Partidul Democrat | Social Democratic Union / Democratic Party — created from the democratic and pro-European rump of FSN, at first left-leaning under Roman, later swung hard to the populist right under Traian Băsescu, merged with PNL dissidents and became PD-L.

PD-L | Partidul Democrat-Liberal | Democratic Liberal Party — Băsescu's personal machine, after his departure merged into PNL.

DA | Alianţa Dreptate şi Adevăr | Justice and Truth Alliance — a coalition of PNL and PD-L against PSD that elected Băsescu to presidency in 2004.

ARD | Alianţa România Dreaptă | Right Romania Alliance — a front for PD-L + some satellite parties in the 2012 elections, created in an unsuccessful attempt to shield PD-L from Băsescu's unpopularity.

PMP | Partidul Mișcarea Populară | People's Movement Party — Băsescu's personal machine no. 2, created after his policies and deranged behavior infuriated not just the whole country but also PD-L.

USR | Uniunea Salvați România | Save Romania Union — an anti-corruption classical liberal party created out of Save Bucharest Union, a localist party. Together with Plus objectively the best most normal party in Romania, if only by the virtue of not swimming in bribes.
 

OTHER‌‌ PARTIES

RMDSZ (UDMR) | Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség | Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania — the beneficiaries of the votes of Hungarian minority since the revolution. Virtually always get somewhere between 5-7%. Christian democrats in theory, but really support whoever is more convenient and hands out more pork.

PRM | Partidul România Mare | Greater Romania Party
PUNR | Partidul Unităţii Naţionale a Românilor | Romanian National Unity Party
AUR | Alianța pentru Unitatea Românilor | Alliance for Romanian Unity
A trio of very similar far-right nationalist parties, of which PRM is best known for Gheroghe Funar, a Zhirinovsky-like lunatic at their helm who managed to get into second round in the 2000 presidential election. The parties are definitely politically closer to the Front family, but I decided to classify them separately because of their different histories (not descended from FSN).

PPDD | Partidul Poporului Dan Diaconescu | People's Party Dan Diaconescu — a nationalist and vaguely lefty populist party that did well in 2012 and promptly disappeared once Dear Leader got bored with politics.

Minorities — Romanian Constitution guarantees a variable number of seats (currently 17) in the Chamber of Deputies to ethnic minority parties. The only one of those parties relevant outside these seats is Klaus Iohannis' former party FDGR (Democratic Forum of Germans in Romania).

Others — some small parties that won seats in 1990 and 1992, when there wasn't a 5% threshold.

[Estrella]

Aaand here go the blocks!

There's a pretty interesting pattern here that has repeated three times so far:
1) a huge landslide victory for Front (1990, 2000, 2012)
2) a smaller Front victory with stronger liberal opposition (1992, 2004*, 2016)
3) Liberal victory and quick descent into unpopularity due to economic factors (1996, 2008, 2020?)

Note that the 1990, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004 elections were for both the executive presidency and legislature. Since then, Romania has had a parliamentary system and the elections went out of sync.

* Yes, Băsescu won the presidency, but I'm focusing on the legislature only, which might be a bit disingenuous tbh.


And one last thing — Romania's parliament is as megalomaniacally oversized as its building.

The huge spike in 2012 is because USL's landslide victory (59%, 42-point lead) caused a lot of what in saner systems would be called overhang mandates to keep the proportionality (actually, it was more complicated, but I don't pretend to understand it).

_{what do you think, RGM? is this analysis and stuff anywhere close to reality because i got most of this from wikipedia lol}

[RGM2609]

Well, that is some good work. It is pretty accurate, even through I have some different views on how to  best split the parties into blocks. Also, if you ever need some more nuanced-than-wikipedia information on Romania, feel free to PM me. I have a lot of free time now because of the national lockdown.

[Estrella]

Well, that is some good work. It is pretty accurate, even through I have some different views on how to  best split the parties into blocks. Also, if you ever need some more nuanced-than-wikipedia information on Romania, feel free to PM me. I have a lot of free time now because of the national lockdown.

Thank you!

I'd be interested to know how would you split the parties into blocks. No other questions come to mind right now, but if there's something you want to know about Slovakia or Hungary, you can feel free to PM me too (:

[RGM2609]

Well, that is some good work. It is pretty accurate, even through I have some different views on how to  best split the parties into blocks. Also, if you ever need some more nuanced-than-wikipedia information on Romania, feel free to PM me. I have a lot of free time now because of the national lockdown.

Thank you!

I'd be interested to know how would you split the parties into blocks. No other questions come to mind right now, but if there's something you want to know about Slovakia or Hungary, you can feel free to PM me too (:

I would split them based on ideology, with PSD at one corner of the spectrum and USR-PLUS at the other corner, with all other parties falling somewhere between.

Also if anyone wants to learn more about Romania, I recommend watching -DOCUMENTAR RECORDER. 30 de ani de democratie- on YouTube. It is very well done and fair, and it has english subtitles as well as it explains basically everything that happened in Romania since 1989. It is long, but you can watch it in pieces lol

[RGM2609]

Also, mainly out of sheer boredom, I decided to do kind of a historical chronology of Romanian governments. Enjoy!

All Romanian governments -

The First Petre Roman Government - FSN full control, 26.12.1989-28.06.1990

The Second Petre Roman Government, FSN majority government, 28.06.1990-16.10.1991

The Theodor Stolojan Government, Unity coalition majority government, 16.10.1991-19.11.1992

The Nicolae Vacaroiu Government, FDSN-PUNR minority government with PRM and PSM confidence-and-supply, 19.11.1992-11.12.1996

The Victor Ciorbea Government, PNTCD-PD-PNL-UDMR-PSDR majority government, 12.12.1996-30.03.1998

The Radu Vasile Government, PNTCD-PD-PNL-UDMR-PSDR majority government, 17.04.1998-22.12.1999

The Mugur Isarescu Government, PNTCD-PD-PNL-UDMR majority government, 22.12.1999-28.12.2000

The Adrian Nastase Government, PSD-PUR coalition minority government with UDMR confidence-and-supply, 28.12.2000-21.12.2004

The First Calin Popescu Tariceanu Government, PNL-PD-UDMR-PUR coalition majority government, 29.12.2004-04.12.2006

The Second Calin Popescu Tariceanu Government, PNL-PD-UDMR coalition majority government, 04.12.2006-05.04.2007 (initially they did not have a majority without PUR, but enough MPs left PSD for PNL and PD that they managed to gather one by the end of 2006)

The Third Calin Popescu Tariceanu Government, PNL-UDMR coalition minority government with PSD confidence-and-supply, 05.04.2007-22.12.2008

The First Emil Boc Government, PDL-PSD coalition majority government, 22.12.2008-01.10.2009

The Second Emil Boc Government, PDL minority government, 01.10.2009-23.12.2009 (this was never approved by Parliament, but I am listing every change in the political composition of a government as a different government)

The Third Emil Boc Government, PDL-UDMR-UNPR coalition majority government, 23.12.2009-09.02.2012 (UNPR was originally formed as a host for PSD and PNL MPs who wanted to join the government)

The Mihai Razvan Ungureanu Government, PDL-UDMR-UNPR coalition majority government, 09.02.2012-07.05.2012 (it lost its majority by the time it was ousted)

The First Victor Ponta Government, PSD-PNL-PC coalition majority government, 07.05.2012-21.12.2012

The Second Victor Ponta Government, PSD-PNL-UNPR-PC coalition majority government, 21.12.2012-05.03.2014

The Third Victor Ponta Government, PSD-UNPR-PC-UDMR coalition majority government, 05.03.2014-17.12.2014

The Fourth Victor Ponta Government, PSD-UNPR-ALDE coalition majority government, 17.12.2014-05.11.2015

The Dacian Ciolos Government, Technocratic minority government with confidence-and-supply from all parties, 17.11.2015-04.01.2017

The Sorin Grindeanu Government, PSD-ALDE coalition majority government, 04.01.2017-29.06.2017

The Mihai Tudose Government, PSD-ALDE coalition majority government, 29.06.2017-29.01.2018

The First Viorica Dancila Government, PSD-ALDE coalition majority government, 29.01.2018-27.08.2019

The Second Viorica Dancila Government, PSD minority government, 27.08.2019-04.11.2019

The First Ludovic Orban Government, PNL minority government with USR-PLUS, ALDE, PMP confidence-and-supply, 04.11.2019-14.03.2020

The Second Ludovic Orban Government, PNL minority government with PSD, USR-PLUS, PMP, UDMR confidence-and-supply, 14.03.2020-present

[RGM2609]

Even during the full-blown COVID-19 pandemic, PSD keeps trying to sabotage the activity of the Government and score electoral points. They and their allies from Pro-Romania are passing poorly written bills through Parliament at an alarming pace, which would radically increase spending even beyond the increases passed by PNL meant to help the economy survive the virus. Meanwhile, the PSD leader, Marcel Ciolacu, keeps threatening to throw the Government out of power again and weirdly asked people to go back to work.

As for the new measures against COVID-19, the emergency state was prolonged until 16th May, the local elections have been postponed from June until an unknown date, likely to be November and schools are likely to be re-opened in June, with the Summer holiday being delayed until the end of July.

[RGM2609]

New IMAS poll -
 
PNL - 33%
PSD - 25%
USR-PLUS - 16%
ProRomania - 8%
UDMR - 6%
ALDE - 4%
PMP - 3%

New CURS poll -

PNL - 34%
PSD - 29%
USR-PLUS - 14%
ProRomania - 7%
UDMR - 5%
PMP - 5%
ALDE - 4%

The threshold for entering the Parliament is 5%.

[Lechasseur]

New IMAS poll -
 
PNL - 33%
PSD - 25%
USR-PLUS - 16%
ProRomania - 8%
UDMR - 6%
ALDE - 4%
PMP - 3%

New CURS poll -

PNL - 34%
PSD - 29%
USR-PLUS - 14%
ProRomania - 7%
UDMR - 5%
PMP - 5%
ALDE - 4%

The threshold for entering the Parliament is 5%.

The threshold for entering Parliament is 5%.

Is this good or bad news for PNL?

[RGM2609]

New IMAS poll -
 
PNL - 33%
PSD - 25%
USR-PLUS - 16%
ProRomania - 8%
UDMR - 6%
ALDE - 4%
PMP - 3%

New CURS poll -

PNL - 34%
PSD - 29%
USR-PLUS - 14%
ProRomania - 7%
UDMR - 5%
PMP - 5%
ALDE - 4%

The threshold for entering the Parliament is 5%.

The threshold for entering Parliament is 5%.

Is this good or bad news for PNL?

Bad. They were at about 40% before the COVID-19 pandemic, even higher after Iohannis won the presidential election. They are basically collapsing, the only thing keeping them afloat in this polls is the fact that PSD is historically weak because of unrelated factors. The real question is whether this dynamic will continue in the next months or if they will stop collapsing/start growing after the pandemic is over.

[PSOL]

So what are each parties positions on fiscal policy, labor unions, LGBTQ+ rights, and foreign policy?

May you also give me a rundown of the Romanian left after 1989?

[RGM2609]

So what are each parties positions on fiscal policy, labor unions, LGBTQ+ rights, and foreign policy?

May you also give me a rundown of the Romanian left after 1989?

Okay, we will only go through the major parties. You will notice that their positions are not that different, their conflicts mainly being about things like vision and staying in power.

LGBTQ+ rights - As shown by the ridiculous turnout in the 2018 referendum, this issue is not a priority for the Romanian people. However, most parties are openly homophobic in an attempt to stay on the good side of the Romanian Orthodox Church, which they believe (not necessarily correctly) to be able to bring them votes. All parties are like this, except for USR, which went through painful conflicts between the liberal and conservative wing on this issue in 2017. They barely survived it without imploding so they are not eager to discuss it now.
However, a significant part of the population IS, in fact pro-LGBT (about 30-35%), so I guess that by 2025 there will be at least one openly pro-LGBT major party.

Foreign policy - HMM. Nominally, all parties are pro-EU and pro-NATO. However, most of the electorate of PSD-ALDE is not, and as such this parties are often going full-on into nationalism and conspiracy theories. No major party supports leaving EU or NATO, but PSD governments have a history of having conflicts with EU especially.

Fiscal policy - Romania has a flat tax rate, and PSD is the only party open to change that. PSD and its satellites are also the only ones open to raising taxes (not in electoral years through).

Labour unions - They used to be a big deal. Many of the labour union leaders were corrupt because they were co-operating with politicians for votes in exchange of influence and fought against any reforms, which made unions as a whole kind of distrusted and unpopular. Then, the Basescu-PDL government took a very hard line against them, and this combined with the economic crisis ending made them only a shadow of what they used to be. Do not get me wrong, they are still a thing and strikes still do happen from time to time, but they do not have much power anymore and no party or significant part of the population cares about bringing them back.

Romanian left... This is a complicated question. For me to do the rundown, tell me if you would consider PSD+ as left?

[PSOL]

Please differentiate between them, yes

[RGM2609]

Please differentiate between them, yes

Alright, so, it is important to understand that PCR was really unlike any European communist party. In fact it was more of a far-right nationalist party then a communist party. It was actually quite similar to the North Korean WPK, even through nowhere near as effective in convincing the population. As such, leftism in Romania became associated with nationalism, and all parties emerging from the former PCR were nationalist and conservative. PSD and its satellites were and are more of a weird combination between nationalism and conservatism then a truly social democratic modern party. Their main opposition party, which at some points in time was PNTCD, in others PDL, in others PNL, was always a mainstream conservative party, with some leanings towards populism in some cases.

As you can see, the scene in Romania is very heavily tilted towards the right, and it has always been this way. Even today, there are no truly leftist major parties. The most leftist party today is objectively USR, and even it would be best classified as right-leaning centrist. What is very interesting is that many people, especially young people, are social democrats ideogically. However, the left is identified in Romania with PCR and PSD and because of that, the actual leftists identify themselves as centrists or right-wingers. And the other way around, the Ceausescu-nostalgics and nationalist-conservative old people identify themselves as left-wingers. I think that this mess will continue to stay on as long as PSD (a really rightist party which pretends to be the major left-wing party) continues to be a very significant factor in Romanian politics. As proof of that, Demos, an activist and modern left-wing party which formed in 2018 failed to even get on the ballot.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, I recall accounts of how the RCP was both the biggest ruling party in the former Eastern bloc *and* the least "ideological". Presumably it was a bit more orthodox Marxist/Leninist in the pre-Ceausescu days?