IA State Fair kernel poll

[Holmes]

I agree Zaybay, although where did you get those 2015 numbers? The SOS site linked in the first page shows different results.

[Classic Conservative]

I agree Zaybay, although where did you get those 2015 numbers? The SOS site linked in the first page shows different results.

Those are two different polls. The SOS has their own and WHO-TV has their own, and the WHO poll is more popular.

[RI]

4. The participants can see who other people are voting for, and so can be exposed to outside psychological factors(I.E a Herding Effect)

This one isn't really an issue because the exact same thing happens at the caucuses.

[Tender Branson]

In the additional Iowa SOS's State Fair poll, about 2.000 people have voted so far:

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/statefair/strawpoll/statefairresults.aspx

Voting is also unscientific, but done on IPads and not by throwing corn kernels into glasses.

The results are not so different to the WHO-TV straw poll though.

Trump also gets some 96-97%, but gets far less votes than Republican Joni Ernst for Senate. In the Democratic Senate race, 2 women are clearly ahead:

Among U.S. Senate candidates, Theresa Greenfield leads the Democratic field with 45% of the vote. Kimberly Graham is second, with 35%.

For POTUS (D), it's:

Biden garnered 19% of the votes for Democrats during the first four days of the State Fair. Warren is close behind with 17%. Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are third and fourth, with 12% and 11%, respectively.

In the WHO-TV, poll it's 24% Biden, 16% each for Warren and Buttigieg, 11% Harris and 9% Sanders, with 30.000 votes cast.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

4. The participants can see who other people are voting for, and so can be exposed to outside psychological factors(I.E a Herding Effect)

This one isn't really an issue because the exact same thing happens at the caucuses.

But only on the Democratic site, right?
Isn't the Republican caucus merely a secret ballot act, where you have to be present at and where there are no voting boots?

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Is this a debate qualifying poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden or Bernie both have WWC appeal, Sanders isnt at 6% in IA, thats why he is ahead in NH and can win NV

[Holmes]

I agree Zaybay, although where did you get those 2015 numbers? The SOS site linked in the first page shows different results.

Those are two different polls. The SOS has their own and WHO-TV has their own, and the WHO poll is more popular.

This is confusing.

[Tender Branson]

Is this a debate qualifying poll

LOLno.

But good for publicity, for example for Pete.

[Tender Branson]

Pete rising !

Biden 23%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 16%
Harris 11%
Sanders 8%
Booker 4%
Gabbard 4%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 2%
O'Rourke 2%

[Tender Branson]

This might be a reason for his gain:



Pete has:

* stopped by the Kernel poll
* campaigned at the Fair yesterday
* unveiled a rural investment plan

BTW: ca. 35K votes have now been cast.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This might be a reason for his gain:

Pete has:

* stopped by the Kernel poll
* campaigned at the Fair yesterday
* unveiled a rural investment plan

BTW: ca. 35K votes have now been cast.

So, only for Biden and Mayor Pete a second jar has been needed?

[President Johnson]

I guess the winner of Iowa will get less than 30% on primary day, probably not even clearing 25%.

[Tender Branson]

With 38.000 votes, Biden dropping further and Rs overtake Ds:

[Tender Branson]

Here is the trendline:

https://twitter.com/RidgeKnapp/status/1161726773178044416

Biden has dropped from 35% when the Iowa Fair started to 23% now.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Here is the trendline:

https://twitter.com/RidgeKnapp/status/1161726773178044416

Biden has dropped from 35% when the Iowa Fair started to 23% now.

It's worth comparing these gains to the soapbox schedule:

Thu 8/8:  Joe Biden
Sat 8/10:  Elizabeth Warren
Sun 8/11:  Bernie Sanders
Mon 8/12:  Pete Buttigieg

Seems like Biden started out strong with the first speech and then others gained ground after it was their turn on the box.

[Tender Branson]

9am update with more than 40.000 kernels cast:



It seems the weekend vote leans Democratic, while the weekday vote leans Republican.

Democrats can hope to pull even or ahead again over the coming (final) weekend.

[Pollster]

The margins are probably not going to move much anymore. At a 40,000+ sample size, one candidate would need >400 kernels to move 1%. Will be interesting to watch the party margin, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It seems the weekend vote leans Democratic, while the weekday vote leans Republican.

But I thought all the Republicans would be too busy working

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I need my Butti

[GeorgiaModerate]

I need my Butti

Just think, if Jimmy Carter came out of retirement and ran again with Pete as his running mate, they would be Peanut/Butti.

(I'll get my coat...)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Trevor Noah provides us with some useful coverage of the the Iowa State Fair .
All the anti-Biden comments underneath the video are just hilarious and so true. 😂

Iteresting fun fact: Four years ago, Stephen Colbert compared both primaries in total to the Hunger Games. This year, Noah compares them to World War D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I need my Butti

Just think, if Jimmy Carter came out of retirement and ran again with Pete as his running mate, they would be Peanut/Butti.

(I'll get my coat...)

I'll leave with you, because I liked the joke.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I need my Butti

Just think, if Jimmy Carter came out of retirement and ran again with Pete as his running mate, they would be Peanut/Butti.

(I'll get my coat...)

And if Biden is to win, I hope he's gonna choose Maria Cantwell as his running mate so that they both would run as a "Biden/Cantwell" ticket.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I need my Butti

Just think, if Jimmy Carter came out of retirement and ran again with Pete as his running mate, they would be Peanut/Butti.

(I'll get my coat...)

And if Biden is to win, I hope he's gonna choose Maria Cantwell as his running mate so that they both would run as a "Biden/Cantwell" ticket.

Of all women, why Cantwell? She’s boring. I mean, I know you want a VP who doesn’t outshine you, but might as well pick someone like Cortez Masto who’s young and exciting enough to potentially succeed you.