What will it take to keep PA, WI, MI, OH and IA in the GOP column in 2020?

[sg0508]

IA was won going away, and OH was surprisingly anti-climatic in 2016.  The others were razor thin, and Hilary closed the gap on each post-Election Day.

We've talked a lot about how the Democrats can gain them back.  Let's think from the opposite end...what needs to happen to keep them in the Trump column again? We know minority and youth turnout was down, and that killed Hilary, and we don't know how it will be this time.

The talking of "jobs" was huge for Trump with the older moderates in '16. That proved to be a winner then.  What now?

[Politician]

Keep black turnout low and maintain strong numbers with the WWC.

[TML]

If the Democrats put up another corporate/establishment/neoliberal candidate, Trump could use the same campaign strategy from 2016 (campaigning against free trade, which these type of Democrats endorsed) to win these states again.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If the Democrats put up another corporate/establishment/neoliberal candidate, Trump could use the same campaign strategy from 2016 (campaigning against free trade, which these type of Democrats endorsed) to win these states again.

This strategy gets knee-capped if Trump's escalating trade war with China sends the economy into a recession. Rural and small-town Midwest will be the hardest hit region by China's retaliatory tariffs.

Otherwise, yes, he could play this card again. I'm not sure it will be enough to keep PA, WI, and MI in his column, but it would be enough for OH and IA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nominate Rubio as Veep instead of Pence

[DINGO Joe]

Probably massive fraud

[Badger]

If the Democrats put up another corporate/establishment/neoliberal candidate, Trump could use the same campaign strategy from 2016 (campaigning against free trade, which these type of Democrats endorsed) to win these states again.

This strategy gets knee-capped if Trump's escalating trade war with China sends the economy into a recession. Rural and small-town Midwest will be the hardest hit region by China's retaliatory tariffs.

Otherwise, yes, he could play this card again. I'm not sure it will be enough to keep PA, WI, and MI in his column, but it would be enough for OH and IA.

Correct answers all around.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump if he picks Rubio can peel off NH and NV, barring that Trump will lose

[R.P. McM]

If the Democrats put up another corporate/establishment/neoliberal candidate, Trump could use the same campaign strategy from 2016 (campaigning against free trade, which these type of Democrats endorsed) to win these states again.

This strategy gets knee-capped if Trump's escalating trade war with China sends the economy into a recession. Rural and small-town Midwest will be the hardest hit region by China's retaliatory tariffs.

Otherwise, yes, he could play this card again. I'm not sure it will be enough to keep PA, WI, and MI in his column, but it would be enough for OH and IA.

In relative terms, the trade war is much more damaging to IA's economy than the economies of MI/OH/PA/WI. Which may not be enough to flip the state, but it wouldn't surprise me if IA sees the biggest swing.

[ajc0918]

Michigan won't go to Trump again and I don't expect it will be particularly close. Dems were caught sleeping and they won't be in 2020. Plus, the new same day voting and no reason absentee voting will likely boost left leaning turnout.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Michigan won't go to Trump again and I don't expect it will be particularly close. Dems were caught sleeping and they won't be in 2020. Plus, the new same day voting and no reason absentee voting will likely boost left leaning turnout.

Do you mean same day registration?

[ajc0918]

Michigan won't go to Trump again and I don't expect it will be particularly close. Dems were caught sleeping and they won't be in 2020. Plus, the new same day voting and no reason absentee voting will likely boost left leaning turnout.

Do you mean same day registration?

Yes

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ohio? Nothing need be changed. Trump could say the n word and still win it. Iowa? Pretty much nothing except not crashing the economy. The rest? Doing something different that trump isn’t doing now, because right now whatever he’s doing is clearly not working

[Xing]

For Iowa or Ohio, avoiding a recession is probably enough for Trump to hold them. The other three will probably go the way of the nacional environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

279 is all the Dems need and IA and OH dont have competetive Senate races. Dems may well lose IA 1 and 2 and pickup IA-4

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Ohio will go Republican.  Iowa is a wild card.

Wisconsin and Michigan will go to the Democrats.

Pennsylvania is the wild card because it has become an energy state.  The Democrats have opposed fracking, and I believe that this issue is one that will bite the Democrats if the GOP exploits it.  A number of the WWC voters that have shifted to the GOP in PA are ENERGY workers, and hostility of the Democrats toward the Fossil Fuel industry isn't lost on them.

[Mr. Smith]

Doing the same things they already do and hope Joe Biden wins the nomination...he's the only one that could pull off such a defeat from victory's jaws again, and the only one that won't say much about voter suppression, roll purges, or seriously rally the young minority votes.

[LiberalDem19]

Ohio's 90% a given.

Iowa is probably leaning Trump's way, but he needs to stop the idiotic trade war and come up with a long term strategy for farmers.

WI, MI, and PA he needs to keep black voters home, so the Southern strategy only in the Midwest.

[DINGO Joe]

Ohio's 90% a given.

Iowa is probably leaning Trump's way, but he needs to stop the idiotic trade war and come up with a long term strategy for farmers.

WI, MI, and PA he needs to keep black voters home, so the Southern strategy only in the Midwest.

So, you're saying Iowa is safe D?

[Bojack Horseman]

Ramp up the racism to try and make up the difference among white people.