Who deserves more blame for the fall of the Virginia Republican Party

[OSR stands with Israel]

Its pretty hard to say cause under Bush , Virginia fell from being a Ruby Red State to a Bellwether state, then under Trump it has fallen from being a Bellwether to at least a Likely Dem state and on path to becoming Solidly Democratic. 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think they fell primarily due to factors beyond a President’s control. Bush and Trump only sped along the inevitable.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think they fell primarily due to factors beyond a President’s control. Bush and Trump only sped along the inevitable.

As President, you can change trends and you can create new ones. Look at Clinton for example as the trends what lasted for decades were changed. Reagan created a new coalition that allowed the Republicans do dominate politics from 1980-2008 as well

Things can also fall apart under a Presidency, just look at DFW suburbs under Trump(They stayed solidly GOP in 2008 and even Trended GOP in 2012).

[Oryxslayer]

The President certainly has the power to adjust their parties coalition at the margins, or at least adjust the direction of the party. However, local political parties can insolate themselves from these trends using local issues or long standing divides, see CT, NY, and MA. If the party is unable to adjust the margins even a little, then every election is going to match the nation, and the parties fate is out of their control.

So what happened to the VA Republicans? Well, 2008/2009/2010 unmaked the political systems of the south, permanently throwing out the rural white southern Dems who were still riding the fumes of their old Authoritarian system. It was good then for the VA Republicans to abandon their local arrangements and fully tie themselves to the national brand, just like every other non-Florida southern republican party. The problem for the VA Republicans is that VA was increasingly not a southern state. NOVA and other migrant metros are filled with transplants with more connections to the Northeast corridor rather than Dixie. The Republican parties of these regions rightly have spent generations building individual brands that shy away from the outright racism and emphasize their fiscal credentials. With the VA Republicans embracing the South, they abandoned the North, and with it they lost their ability to dominate the state. The Dems meanwhile have an easier time bridging this Gap, since the AAs in ROVA are lockstep Dems, leaving the party free to go after the northern aligned part of the state.

It will be hard for the VA Republicans to come back from this. States along the border of cultural regions naturally see one side of the divide come to dominate the parties, numbers simply force this. It's hard to see them winning purely based on Dixie without the advantages of a favorable environment. Arguably that's what is finally dragging Texas towards the center as well, the Southern Republican party increasingly isn't in line with the transplants booming in the metros.

[cvparty]

I think they fell primarily due to factors beyond a President’s control. Bush and Trump only sped along the inevitable.

As President, you can change trends and you can create new ones. Look at Clinton for example as the trends what lasted for decades were changed. Reagan created a new coalition that allowed the Republicans do dominate politics from 1980-2008 as well

Things can also fall apart under a Presidency, just look at DFW suburbs under Trump(They stayed solidly GOP in 2008 and even Trended GOP in 2012).

these were all long-term trends that were simply amplified by particular circumstances. suburbs have been trending D for the past several decades, but that doesn't mean they have to have trended D in every single election. for example, collin county did trend R in 2012, but it "only" leaned 36 points R compared to 2000 when leaned 49 points

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think they fell primarily due to factors beyond a President’s control. Bush and Trump only sped along the inevitable.

As President, you can change trends and you can create new ones. Look at Clinton for example as the trends what lasted for decades were changed. Reagan created a new coalition that allowed the Republicans do dominate politics from 1980-2008 as well

Things can also fall apart under a Presidency, just look at DFW suburbs under Trump(They stayed solidly GOP in 2008 and even Trended GOP in 2012).

these were all long-term trends that were simply amplified by particular circumstances. suburbs have been trending D for the past several decades, but that doesn't mean they have to have trended D in every single election. for example, collin county did trend R in 2012, but it "only" leaned 36 points R compared to 2000 when leaned 49 points

Well In 2000 you also had a Texan at the top of the ticket and back then candidates still had huge home state advantages . 2012 was still I believe relatively the best performance any non Texan Republican have performed with the possible exception of 72. If McCain was the nominee in 2000 and 2004 he probably gets similar numbers in Texas as Mitt in 2012 and not similar to Bush either time .

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

As someone who spent the majority of his life in Fairfax I can tell you that George Bush was much, much, much more popular than Donald Trump in the area of the state that's swung hardest against Republicans. The War on Terror played to a big military/national security focus in the state, "compassionate conservatism" didn't alienate voters who recognized their local economy's reliance on the federal government, and evangelical-focused culture wars issues (as opposed to white-grievance-based culture wars issues) played well to a state that still had a large contingence of family-values focused voters.

Virginia was trending blue and Obama was a phenomenal enough candidate to really accelerate that trend. But the state GOP was still doing well enough into 2015 - cakewalk gov race in 2009, fringe lunatic joke candidate almost winning a gov race in 2013, competitive in a Senate race against a state institution in 2014, and healthy majorities in the House of Dels padded by some R seats in ridiculously uncharacteristic areas of the state. That all stopped in 2016/2017.

If a Bob McDonnell-like candidate was still normal in the GOP of 2019 then Republicans would be competitive in every cycle. Instead Corey Stewart is the candidate who best resembles the national party and the ideology it represents is going to lose by double digits into the near future. This is of course inseparable from the rise of Trump and Trumpism in the GOP. Because VA has/had disproportionately many educated white-collar conservative voters Trump's reliance on working class voters with high tendencies for racial resentment it was an obvious choice to leave the list of states where the GOP could compete.

[cvparty]

I think they fell primarily due to factors beyond a President’s control. Bush and Trump only sped along the inevitable.

As President, you can change trends and you can create new ones. Look at Clinton for example as the trends what lasted for decades were changed. Reagan created a new coalition that allowed the Republicans do dominate politics from 1980-2008 as well

Things can also fall apart under a Presidency, just look at DFW suburbs under Trump(They stayed solidly GOP in 2008 and even Trended GOP in 2012).

these were all long-term trends that were simply amplified by particular circumstances. suburbs have been trending D for the past several decades, but that doesn't mean they have to have trended D in every single election. for example, collin county did trend R in 2012, but it "only" leaned 36 points R compared to 2000 when leaned 49 points

Well In 2000 you also had a Texan at the top of the ticket and back then candidates still had huge home state advantages . 2012 was still I believe relatively the best performance any non Texan Republican have performed with the possible exception of 72. If McCain was the nominee in 2000 and 2004 he probably gets similar numbers in Texas as Mitt in 2012 and not similar to Bush either time .

if you wanna split hairs, even in 1996 collin leaned 44 points republican (no texan candidate). it trended D not only in 2016 but in 2008 and 2004 (when bush was on the ballot!). you're right that in the last 40 or so years texas was only more republican in 1984 and 1972 than in 2012...but you have to discount the bush elections which comprise a majority of the modern political era. up to the 1990s texas had strong democratic roots in its rural areas because of democrats' regional southern strength. today's texas is not remotely the same as the 1980s texas. collin county barely cast 50,000 votes in the 1980 presidential election. in 2016 it cast several hundred thousand...

anyway the point is that it didn't take trump to make suburbs trend D. texas's suburbs are a poor example to use because they were all rural until relatively recently. it's better to look at the suburbs that have had relatively static populations (meaning they've actually been highly educated and suburban for a long time) like:
dupage co
1976: R+42 (relative to NPV)
1984: R+34
1996: R+19
2004: R+8
2016: D+13

montco
1976: R+18
1984: R+11
1996: R+1
2004: D+14
2016: D+19

norfolk co ma
1976: D+4
1984: D+11
1996: D+20
2004: D+24
2016: D+26

oakland co
1976: R+21
1984: R+16
1996: R+5
2004: D+3
2016: D+6

[Pericles]

Bush wasn't really responsible for Virginia's shift, he did win Virginia comfortably twice after all. Trump however has accelerated Virginia's trend and already done serious damage to the VA GOP. However most of the shift is not due to any one individual and also was partly accelerated by luck (if the polls weren't so off in 2014 or the GOP invested a bit more then Gillespie would have won and the GOP would still have a Sente seat in the state).

[S019]

Trump turned it from a tossup to Safe D, and made if unwinnable.

[Sestak]

George Allen

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bush wasn't really responsible for Virginia's shift, he did win Virginia comfortably twice after all. Trump however has accelerated Virginia's trend and already done serious damage to the VA GOP. However most of the shift is not due to any one individual and also was partly accelerated by luck (if the polls weren't so off in 2014 or the GOP invested a bit more then Gillespie would have won and the GOP would still have a Sente seat in the state).

Here's VA PVI since 1996:

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump turned it from a tossup to Safe D, and made if unwinnable.

Depends on what you mean by Safe D as I wouldnt call a state Safe D this far out unless its PVI was +7 D which VA isnt close to being yet. Its now in the Likely D column which is still bad though

[Pericles]

Bush wasn't really responsible for Virginia's shift, he did win Virginia comfortably twice after all. Trump however has accelerated Virginia's trend and already done serious damage to the VA GOP. However most of the shift is not due to any one individual and also was partly accelerated by luck (if the polls weren't so off in 2014 or the GOP invested a bit more then Gillespie would have won and the GOP would still have a Sente seat in the state).

Here's VA PVI since 1996:

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2

Fair, but I don't think Bush made much of a difference to it, while Trump has damaged the VA GOP (and that post makes things look better for Trump as a lot of the damage he has done is in his presidency, so after 2016).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bush wasn't really responsible for Virginia's shift, he did win Virginia comfortably twice after all. Trump however has accelerated Virginia's trend and already done serious damage to the VA GOP. However most of the shift is not due to any one individual and also was partly accelerated by luck (if the polls weren't so off in 2014 or the GOP invested a bit more then Gillespie would have won and the GOP would still have a Sente seat in the state).

Here's VA PVI since 1996:

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2

Fair, but I don't think Bush made much of a difference to it, while Trump has damaged the VA GOP (and that post makes things look better for Trump as a lot of the damage he has done is in his presidency, so after 2016).

I think Bush just overall incompetence led to VA going form Ruby Red to Tossup in just 8 years. Sure it was trending Blue but Bush made it trend much faster and did nothing to help stop it. If you had someone like McCain in the WH I think VA would have stayed Republican

[Pericles]

Bush wasn't really responsible for Virginia's shift, he did win Virginia comfortably twice after all. Trump however has accelerated Virginia's trend and already done serious damage to the VA GOP. However most of the shift is not due to any one individual and also was partly accelerated by luck (if the polls weren't so off in 2014 or the GOP invested a bit more then Gillespie would have won and the GOP would still have a Sente seat in the state).

Here's VA PVI since 1996:

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2

Fair, but I don't think Bush made much of a difference to it, while Trump has damaged the VA GOP (and that post makes things look better for Trump as a lot of the damage he has done is in his presidency, so after 2016).

I think Bush just overall incompetence led to VA going form Ruby Red to Tossup in just 8 years. Sure it was trending Blue but Bush made it trend much faster and did nothing to help stop it. If you had someone like McCain in the WH I think VA would have stayed Republican

Well Bush made the national environment shift so much to the Democrats in 2008, but I don't think he had much effect on how Virginia leans relative to the national environment, while Trump is a worse fit for Virginia than most states so he is actually shifting the lean of Virginia (so if 2020 is a strong Dem win then Trump would do more damage than Bush by shifting both the national environment and the state's lean).

[DINGO Joe]

It's the demographic shift and the steady stupidification and racialization of the GOP that make them unable to appeal to the new demographics.  Trump is the apogee of that shift.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dubya, due to Obama turning it to a purple staye, but Howard Dean's 50 state strategy has worked since 2006

[Gracile]

It's fruitless to try and pin the VA GOP's decline on a single person when the reality is the natural trends of the state mirrored the national trends toward the Democratic party - bringing in more college-educated whites into their coalition while being aided by increased turnout among non-whites.

[Indy Texas]

You could argue George W. Bush enabled them to "unlock" enough of the rural southern/Appalachian VA votes to very briefly enjoy state-level party dominance.

The issue was that they could only enjoy that very briefly in the 2000s before the growth of NoVA caused Democratic countervailing trends to overwhelm them.

More generally, now it's next to impossible for state parties to develop an identity separate from the national parties.

West Virginia and Arkansas Democrats can't separate themselves from AOC and Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders. California and New York Republicans can't separate themselves from Steve King and Donald Trump.

[windjammer]

Trump obviously.


But an another main factor is the VA republican party's extremism: nominating a ton of far right bigots (George Allen, Cuccinelli, Stewart,...) caused their downfall as well


The VA GOP is one of the most republican extremist party.

[Badger]

I think they fell primarily due to factors beyond a President’s control. Bush and Trump only sped along the inevitable.

Correct answer, with emphasis on Trump.

[One Term Floridian]

VA GOP deserves most of the blame for the fall of the VA GOP. Somehow managing to have an even worse record than the FL Dems (as of late) means there’s obviously an internal issue going on here

[NeverAgainsSock]

Write-in: The Virginia Democrats.

While I think Trump has certainly contributed to the post-2016 death of the VA GOP, the Virginia Dems are a super well-oiled voter turning and turnout machine. Since 2001, and even moreso in the later years of Dubya, the Virginia Dems have been able to so radically change the political landscape. Its one thing to have dynamic demographics (see Florida), its another thing to harness them to your advantage.

In less than 2 decades, the Virginia Democrats have gone from holding no statewide seats (US Senate, Governor, LG, AG), an 8-3 minority in the US House of Representatives, and by 2002 a near 2-1 deficit in the General Assembly. Today, we have ALL statewide elected posts, a 7-4 MAJORITY in the HoR, and are on the verge of flipping General Assembly for the first post-Dixiecrat Democratic trifecta (to my knowledge many of the late 80s-early 90s Democrats in the Gen. Assem. retired or switched parties by Clinton so I consider this the first Modern Democratic Trifecta).

Every election for VADEMS has been just pushing the needle a bit (and a lot more since 2016) each time to get to where we are today. The GOP has just been playing catchup ever since. They are stuck playing 20th Century politics in a 21st Century State.

They have no stars or top recruits. With luck (and a whlle lot of Democratic elbow grease), the VAGOP is destined to the dustbin of history.

[MT Treasurer]

Bob Dole