Seattle City Council Elections: Has the bell tolled for Kshama Sawant?
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  Seattle City Council Elections: Has the bell tolled for Kshama Sawant?
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Author Topic: Seattle City Council Elections: Has the bell tolled for Kshama Sawant?  (Read 586 times)
GeneralMacArthur
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« on: August 08, 2019, 03:41:10 AM »
« edited: August 08, 2019, 03:49:30 AM by GeneralMacArthur »

I'm on the ground here in the middle of one of the fiercest and most interesting battles in the country.

To get you acquainted:  The Seattle city council is composed of 9 members, and operate as the legislative branch to the mayor's executive branch.  Previously, all 9 seats were elected at large, but in 2015 we switched to 2 at-large and 7 district seats.  The current seats are:

D1:  West Seattle, mostly detached from the city and less afluent and with its own set of parochial issues.  Represented by Lisa Herbold.

D2:  Beacon Hill, SODO and South Seattle, most of the poorer and industrial areas of the city.  Represented by Bruce Harrell, who is retiring.

D3:  A fascinating mix of Capitol Hill, which is full of young LGBT people and political radicals, and areas like Volunteer Park, Madrona and Broadmoor, where most of the wealthiest millionaires and billionaires in the city live, including Howard Schultz.  Represented by Kshama Sawant.

D4:  University District and wealthier SFH areas.  This district is particularly interesting because of the tens of thousands of college students attending UW.  Represented by Abel Pacheco, who is retiring.

D5:  North Seattle, mostly less-affluent SFH areas where transportation is the key issue.  Represented by Debora Juarez.

D6:  The other fascinating district, Fremont + Ballard + Green Lake, essentially a collection of village enclaves surrounded by high-density neighborhoods.  Represented by Mike O'Brien, who is retiring.

D7:  All of Seattle downtown plus Magnolia, the wealthy, isolated, spacious SFH neighborhood.  Represented by Sally Bagshaw, who is retiring.

The two at-large seats are not up for re-election but are held by Teresa Mosqueda and Lorena Gonzalez.


The key issue in this race will be the city's response to homelessness.  The Seattle Is Dying documentary went very viral, but it was just the crystallization of a fierce debate that has been raging in the city for years.  Very few people would dispute that homelessness is a crisis.  Not only downtown areas such as Pioneer Square and the waterfront swarming with tents, but the tent sprawl extends out into the smaller neighborhoods, villages and SFH areas, with tents popping up along sidewalks and taking over sections of public parks.  Aside from tents, RVs are also a huge problem, and in particular have taken over most of D2.  Nearly half the parking spaces in SODO and Georgetown, the two primary industrial neighborhoods, are occupied permanently by RVs housing homeless individuals.  Narcotics, burglary, assault, unpredictable wild behavior, trash, disease and rodents are among the common complaints associated with the epidimic.

There are essentially two mindsets for this in the city.  On the one side is the argument that the main cause of homelessness is a lack of affordable housing, that the city provides inadequate shelters, and that it's unfair to enforce laws about homelessness without offering an alternative.  This is the current status quo, where the police have been prevented, via a series of ordinances, from enforcing existing laws.  The primary form of shelter the city wants to offer is a set of tiny-house villages planted on church parking lots and vacant land in neighborhoods scattered around the city; these villages have been extremely controversial due to the reduced quality of life in neighborhoods impacted.  Proponents of this POV also want to build a safe injection site and eradicate what little prevention does remain in the city -- "stop the sweeps" is the slogan, those "sweeps" being the removal of tent cities from SFH neighborhoods when they get too big.  In order to fix the problem in the long-term, they want to tax the rich to build affordable housing and dramatically upzone all city neighborhoods to allow for tall apartment complexes and townhome clusters.

On the other side is the law-and-order movement, largely organized through a series of Facebook groups such as the moderate Speak Out Seattle and the more conservative SAFE Seattle.  The argument here is that law enforcement needs to be allowed to do its job, laws should be enforced, tents should be removed entirely or aggregated into one particular area of the city, derelict RVs should be impounded or kicked out of their parking spots, and addicts or mentally ill people should be compelled into treatment programs.  In general, there is a prevailing belief that the homelessness crisis has been allowed to spiral out of control due to a network of grift organizations, such as SHARE and WHEEL, that are funded by the city council to construct and manage the tent cities and tiny-house villages and offer services.  This is what led to the first clash between these two groups, the head tax debate earlier in the year, where the council passed a $250 per-employee tax on business that would have gone to building affordable housing and further funding SHARE.  This was passed 9-0, but triggered an enormous political revolt backed by Amazon and other local businesses, and the council was cowed into repealing the tax by a 7-2 vote a few weeks later.

If we characterize these two groups as Status Quo (SQ) and Law-And-Order (LO) the current makeup of the council is approximately:

Lisa Herbold:  SQ
Bruce Harrell:  LO (retiring)
Kshama Sawant:  Extremist SQ
Abel Pacheco:  Lean LO (retiring)
Debora Juarez:  A little of both
Mike O'Brien:  Extremist SQ (retiring)
Sally Bagshaw:  A little of both (retiring)
Teresa Mosqueda:  SQ
Lorena Gonzalez:  A little of both


Primaries

Seattle has a top-two runoff primary system.  The primaries have drawn an extraordinary amount of spending on both sides, and in most cases it's pretty clear where the candidates stand on the homelessness issue.  The Seattle Times and The Stranger put out competing endorsements, and most of the endorsed candidates made the general election.

D1:
Lisa Herbold:  48.2%
Phil Tavel:  34.0%

Brendan Kolding:  17.8%

Other than Sawant, Herbold is the biggest target for the law-and-order movement.  She won the primary with strong results; problem is, Kolding was the conservative choice, and most or all of his voters will move to Tavel, making this a closer race than it might appear.

D2:
Tammy Morales: 44.9%
Mark Solomon: 24.7%

Ari Hoffman: 13.6%
Phyllis Porter: 6.2%
Chris Peguero: 5.2%
Omari Tahir-Garrett: 3.3%
Henry Dennison:  2.0%

Despite being the hardest-hit by the homelessness crisis, D2 seems most likely to elect a new status-quo extremist.  Tammy Morales is a staunch Sawant ally and identified herself as a socialist up until the election when she suddenly changed her mind.  Despite all supporters of the conservative Ari Hoffman likely moving to Solomon, he has his work cut out for him with Porter and Peguero both being more in the Morales mold, plus 5.3% of the vote going to joke candidate Tahir-Garrett (whose bio was essentially a racist screed in all-caps that included an endorsement for president of South Africa) and Dennison (a parody of communists who answered every question in the debate by talking about Lenin).  Morales lost a very close election to then-incumbent Bruce Harrell last D2 cycle and seems very well-placed to flip the seat.

D3:
Kshama Sawant: 32.8%
Egan Orion: 23.8%

Pat Murakami:  14.2%
Zachary DeWolf: 12.6%
Ami Nguyen: 9.5%
Logan Bowers: 7.1%

The district everyone is watching: will America's lone socialist elected official, Kshama Sawant, lose her seat?  Earlier this year leaked emails revealed that Kshama Sawant's votes are determined, and her speeches pre-written, by Socialist Alternative's central council in Brooklyn.  Sawant is made of teflon, though, and the scandal blew over with a quiet whimper.  She is extremely well-funded from out-of-state donations and has by far the most aggressive and active campaign crew.  In spite of all this, 32.8% is a very weak result for an incumbent.  The law-and-order choice was Murakami, whose votes are all likely to go to Orion.  The other three candidates are all quirky and enigmatic, and their voting blocs are up for grabs.  Anything could happen in America's most interesting city council race.

D4:
Alex Pedersen: 45.6%
Shaun Scott:  19.5%

Cathy Tuttle:  12.7%
Emily Myers: 11.5%
A vast field of nobodies:  7.6%

At first glance, it looks like establishment golden boy Alex Pedersen will easily defeat socialist Sawant-wannabe Shaun Scott.  In truth, this race is closer than it appears, as Tuttle and Myers voters are both likely to migrate to Scott's camp.  Furthermore, these primary elections are held in the summer when UW is out of session, but the general election will be held in November when tens of thousands of college students, who will obviously skew towards Scott, join the electorate.

D5:
Debora Juarez:  42.5%
Ann Davison-Sattler:  27.9%

John Lombard:  13.8%
Tayla Mahoney:  7.9%
Mark Mendez:  6.0%
Alex Tsimerman:  1.9%

Councilmember Debora Juarez is likely to survive with good numbers against a large and diverse pool of challengers.

D6:
Dan Strauss:  30.9%
Heidi Wills:  22.8%

Sergio Garcia:  14.6%
Jay Fathi:  13.7%
Field:  18%

Local paperboy Dan Strauss goes up against an old Seattle favorite, Heidi Wills.  Heidi will have a lot of financial backing plus tons of experience and policy expertise on her side.  On Strauss' side is the reason Wills is having to win her seat back in the first place -- strippergate, the corruption scandal that forced her out of office a decade ago.  D6 has been the most vocal law-and-order district, as extremist Mike O'Brien loved to make D6 a sandbox for "creative solutions" to homelessness, such as building RV lots and no-police-allowed tent villages on parking lots in the middle of his constituents' neighborhoods.

D7:
Andrew Lewis:  29%
Jim Pugel:  26.6%

Daniela Lipscomb-Eng:  10.4%
Michael George:  8.8%
etc.

This is really the only race I don't have a good read on.  Lewis was The Stranger endorsement, and Pugel the Seattle Times endorsement, but the race mainly seems to revolve more around local Magnolia issues than broader city issues and all candidates have been hazy about city-wide policy specifics.


In summary, the skew of the remaining members of the council is pretty heavily towards maintaining the status-quo response to homelessness, which the mayor Jenny Durkan is strongly opposed to, to the point that she explicitly endorsed Mark Solomon and urged D2 voters to vote against Tammy Morales.  A slew of close races will determine the future of the city on this issue.  Herbold, Juarez and Morales all seem like solid bets to win, while the D7 candidates both have unclear POVs on the issue, leaving the council with a 3 (SQ) 3 (??) balance.  Law-and-order types will have to carry Alex Pederson and Heidi Wills to victory, and help Egan Orion knock off Kshama Sawant, in order to create an even city council.  But it is entirely possible that Sawant and Strauss win the races where they're currently leading, which would create a strong majority and probably lead to passage of laws eliminating tent sweeps and legalizing camping in parks and the construction of safe injection sites.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2019, 04:35:33 AM »

The key issue in this race will be the city's response to homelessness.  The Seattle Is Dying documentary went viral, but it was just the crystallization of a fierce debate that has been raging in the city for years.

Lol what is that trash biased documentary. Every city in the US has homeless people, it should be a testament to the city's quality of life that even their homeless are reasonably satisfied.

Hilarious how they interview only red-state tourists whining about smells and dirt. That doc is just red-meat anti-dem propaganda.
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beesley
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2019, 01:43:22 PM »

Thanks for the interesting read.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2019, 05:21:08 PM »

The key issue in this race will be the city's response to homelessness.  The Seattle Is Dying documentary went viral, but it was just the crystallization of a fierce debate that has been raging in the city for years.

Lol what is that trash biased documentary. Every city in the US has homeless people, it should be a testament to the city's quality of life that even their homeless are reasonably satisfied.

Hilarious how they interview only red-state tourists whining about smells and dirt. That doc is just red-meat anti-dem propaganda.

https://q13fox.com/2018/04/10/new-homeless-camp-in-green-lake-neighborhood-frustrates-angers-some-residents/

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/homeless/seattle-neighborhood-is-split-is-licton-springs-tent-city-helping-or-hurting-drug-users/

these are two of the incidents in D6 that sparked the anti-O'Brien movement that led to his resignation.

The problem is many things, but normal is not one of them.
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Seattle
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2019, 06:58:11 PM »

First off, this should probably be in the WA general thread.

I don't really have time to write an in-depth critique, but your analysis misses the mark on a number of fronts and reveals your political slant (on the local level). Sure, homelessness is probably the number one issue, but you're missing nuance if you think that's what's powering all these results. Also, your characterization of status-quo and law-and-order is kind of bizarre. Most of the "SQ" candidates you've assigned that designation definitely do not want the status quo situation you've described. As it is, status-quo under Durkan has been to to do nothing to alleviate the cause of homelessness nor offer realistic or humanitarian solutions.... stuffing people on McNeil island or displacing homeless people from encampments isn't going to get people off the streets, it's just going to terrorize them (and for what- they're not going to disappear, as much as some candidates running seem to at best, endorse out of ignorance and at worst, prefer).

Mike O'Brien did not resign, you're thinking of Rob Johnson (Green heart, best city council member along with Teresa, future mayor & mama). He left after a threat of physical violence against not just him, but his family and the overall incredibly toxic political atmosphere at City Hall (so when an opportunity came, he jumped and I don't blame him). This isn't something he admitted but if you follow Seattle politics on Twitter, word got out from his surrogates.

On its face, the primary results reveal this: Seattle has a silent majority - a progressive one.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2019, 07:36:19 PM »

First off, this should probably be in the WA general thread.

I don't really have time to write an in-depth critique, but your analysis misses the mark on a number of fronts and reveals your political slant (on the local level). Sure, homelessness is probably the number one issue, but you're missing nuance if you think that's what's powering all these results. Also, your characterization of status-quo and law-and-order is kind of bizarre. Most of the "SQ" candidates you've assigned that designation definitely do not want the status quo situation you've described. As it is, status-quo under Durkan has been to to do nothing to alleviate the cause of homelessness nor offer realistic or humanitarian solutions.... stuffing people on McNeil island or displacing homeless people from encampments isn't going to get people off the streets, it's just going to terrorize them (and for what- they're not going to disappear, as much as some candidates running seem to at best, endorse out of ignorance and at worst, prefer).

Mike O'Brien did not resign, you're thinking of Rob Johnson (Green heart, best city council member along with Teresa, future mayor & mama). He left after a threat of physical violence against not just him, but his family and the overall incredibly toxic political atmosphere at City Hall (so when an opportunity came, he jumped and I don't blame him). This isn't something he admitted but if you follow Seattle politics on Twitter, word got out from his surrogates.

On its face, the primary results reveal this: Seattle has a silent majority - a progressive one.

Yeah, I wrote this pretty late at night so some of the terminology is a little loose.

I used "resign" for all the councilmembers who decided not to run for a second term.

I used "status quo" more to refer to the direction of the approach than the actual current framework.  In the same way that I would have called Clinton "status quo" of the Obama administration despite her wanting much more liberal shades of his policies.  Sawant + Herbold + Mosqueda would, I would say, want to continue the same approach of restraining law enforcement while trying to get funding for affordable housing.  May not be the most precise characterization, but that's the general approach city council has been taking for the last 5-6 years.
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