It's Menendez

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd have prefered Codey

Dave

[Galactic Overlord]

I think Kean has this one. He was already ahead in all of the polls against even the most popular of potential Dems and now hes running agains a mediocre dem.
About Pa... If Casey keeps going so negative it may hurt him as it did when he was supposed to beat Rendell by huge margins. (look at every piece of news on www.caseyforpa.com)

A Zogby poll last month put Kean at a 9 point lead over Menendez, which shows how fluid this race can get.  Defintely a toss-up.

[danwxman]

I don't see how, with NJ being a solid Democratic state, and Menendez slightly ahead in the polls, anybody can call this race "lean Republican"....that's called pessimism if it comes from a Democrat and idiocy if it comes from AuH20.

The Democrats are unlikely to take the senate in 2006, but they are even more unlikely to lose seats as some would suggest. I think the Democrats will hold every seat and pick up one or two.

[TheresNoMoney]

A Zogby poll last month put Kean at a 9 point lead over Menendez, which shows how fluid this race can get.  Defintely a toss-up.

The same poll showed Paul Hackett over Mike DeWine by 8% or 9%.

[Keystone Phil]

PoliticsNJ is saying that the official announcement will be on Friday (tomorrow).

[TeePee4Prez]

I think Kean has this one. He was already ahead in all of the polls against even the most popular of potential Dems and now hes running agains a mediocre dem.
About Pa... If Casey keeps going so negative it may hurt him as it did when he was supposed to beat Rendell by huge margins. (look at every piece of news on www.caseyforpa.com)

Check the recent polls.  They have Menendez beating Kean by 4-9.  As for Casey, he maybe in trouble because he really stands for nothing and is virtally the same as Santorum on social issues.  He needs to go negative because he is a bleh candidate with a namesake.  Chuck Pennacchio is equally as exciting, but hey I agree with him more; however, he sounds like a weenie and would get pulverized by Santorum.  DRAFT JOE HOEFFEL!

[AuH2O]

AuH2O here.

Nice to see you back.  Where have you been hiding lately?

Menendez is tremendously corrupt, but because he operates in an environment where that is largely tolerated, it's hard to be specific. He of course has been involved in all kinds of shady dealings...

I keep hearing this same line, but for some reason no one can site a specific instance.  With Corzine there were specific examples like, his loan to a former girlfriend and union boss. 

This is particularly devastating to Democrats because they already have a vulnerable open seat in MN. Add NJ, add a Chafee win against Laffey, add someone in FL taking out Harris in the GOP primary... and things could get very ugly very fast for Democrats in the Senate. At the very least, this eliminates the minimal chance Democrats had of retaking the Senate.

I wont argue MN because it will probably be the most competitive race of the year.  NJ, well, we'll just have to wait and see how the electorate reacts to Senator Menendez.  He will have a good 6-7 months to pump up his name ID and build his approval rating.  On top of that he has a ton of money in the bank w/ the potential to raise a lot more.  RI is tricky because at first everyone thought Laffey's run would be a joke, but it turns out he's dead serious.  He could potentially cripple Chafee financially and politically by the time the general election rolls around.  Add in Bush's abysmal approval rating in CT and you have the potential for an upset.  FL, two words: wishful thinking.  Harris is stuborn and she's made it clear she's not bailing out.  Good luck knocking her off in the primary.  She is currently polling like 40 point ahead of the field.

Santorum is on the ropes. Dewine, Chafee, and Talent are all vulnerable.  Add in a boatload of scandals including the Jack Abramoff scandal and the democrats look to be in pretty good shape.

A lot has yet to happen. My basic view at this point contends Democrats have essentially failed to capitalize on their opportunities. First of all, the economy is doing well. The Democrats invested pretty heavily in Bush's economic performance, and the tables are turning. Second, the US is going to start drawing down troops in Iraq. Dean's claim the US "can't win" was very damaging and there are many similar examples. Democrats appear weak on defense just as always. Domestically, Bush has improved on immigration somewhat, and Alito's probable confirmation will give him a solid accomplishment in the judicial area.

In any case, Democrats themselves are unpopular and Bush's numbers are rising. It's 11 months until the election; were that trajectory to remain, Democrats would be in trouble. So how the politics plays out in the interim will determine the final outcome.

[Keystone Phil]

Menendez has accepted Corzine's offer.

Official announcement - 2 PM at Liberty State Park


Thank you, Governor-elect Corzine. Thank you so very much.

[Smash255]

New Rasmussen poll shows Menendez up 38%- 34%, 9% others with 18% undecided. 

http://rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20Jersey%20Senate%20Dec%208.htm

Recent Quinnipiac poll shows Menendez up by 2.

I'm not aware of any otther recent polls (post them if you have them),, but the 2 recent polls I have seen on this race both show basically a toss-up with a small Menendez lead

[Virginian87]

God help us all.

Flyers, Phil has a point.  Kean has a most excellent chance of winning next year, for the same reason that Casey has a good chance winning in Pennsylvania.  And unless the greasy North Jersey politico Menendez is thrown out in the primary, than we might very well see a Senator Kean in 2007.

[Defarge]

I have confidence in a Menendez victory.  It will be within 5 points, but I have faith that Menendez will pull through.  Especially if Bush continues to flounder as time progresses.

[TeePee4Prez]

God help us all.

Flyers, Phil has a point.  Kean has a most excellent chance of winning next year, for the same reason that Casey has a good chance winning in Pennsylvania.  And unless the greasy North Jersey politico Menendez is thrown out in the primary, than we might very well see a Senator Kean in 2007.

NJ is now WAAAY to Democratic to elect Kean.  Mind you he is no hardcore conservative, but look at Corzine.  In most other states Forrester would have massacred him.  Not saying NJ is MA, but with the GOP's 2006 problems, it will be next to impossible for him to win despite the namesake.  Kean got in office when NJ was a Reaganomics Republican state and social issues were not as much on the table.  That is not the case today.

Considering how bad Santorum is now doing with approval ratings in PA, I am now convinced Joe Hoeffel would beat him if an election were held today.  I'm convinced very little that Casey's polling numbers are because of Casey, moreso Santorum f-ing up. 

[Ebowed]

NixonNow has a statement in response to Flyers that he wishes for me to post:

"Flyers, despite being outspent twelve to one, Bob Franks came within three percentage points of defeating Jon Corzine in 2000. The next year, Jim McGreevey won by 15 points. The year after that, Doug Forrester came within six points of Frank Lautenberg. I see no reason why it is so extreme to believe that a moderate son of the most popular governor in state history can't beat a man with so many ethical lapses."

[Alcon]

How you can tell Menendez is corrupt:  he's a Democrat.

[Smash255]

good thinking Flyers.

Now to get back on to the original  topic here.  As mentioned earlier a key factor in this race will be how Menendez does in his first 6-8 months in the Senate.  He doesn't need high approval #'s (because 1st year Senators will tend to have a little lower approvals due to higher undecided margins than the others, disapprovals will tend to be lower as well).  If Menendez's approvals are 5-10 points higher (especially if more) than his disapprovals he will be in pretty good shape. If his dsapprovals wind up being higher the race would lean towards Kean.  menendez's first 6-8 months in office will play a major role in this result

[Gustaf]

I think New Jersey is still sufficiently Democratic to reelect an appointed Democratic senator. The gubernatorial result certainly indicates that.

[Keystone Phil]

I think New Jersey is still sufficiently Democratic to reelect an appointed Democratic senator. The gubernatorial result certainly indicates that.

2002 - Lautenberg wins by eleven points.
2000 - Corzine wins by only three points.
1996 - Torricelli wins by ten points.
1994 - Lautenberg wins by only three points.
1990 - Bradley wins by only three points.


So, as we can see, Senate races in NJ over the past fifteen years have usually been close contests. 2000 is the perfect example as to how anything can happen.

Everyone is going on about Menendez's war chest. Remember Corzine's $70 million in 2000? That was a very good year for the Dems in NJ. He had the money, was a Dem running statewide and had a little known opponent as his main opposition. Guess what? It was a three point race. Menendez won't have those advantages. 1) He doesn't have as much money as Corzine did. 2) His opponent has a familiar name.  3) Menendez isn't exactly this "clean" candidate. The man is the face of NJ Dem corruption and many Dems even admit that.

Bottom line - Nothing is "indicated" here (that really goes in the Dems favor) in regards to the Senate race.