ScottRasmussen Daily Tracking poll thread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a Rassy tracking poll, other polls have Bernie closing gap, which I believe

[Terry the Fat Shark]

This is a Rassy tracking poll, other polls have Bernie closing gap, which I believe

Please note it's not "Rasmussen reports" though

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s Aug. 12-15:

link

Biden 28%
Sanders 14%
Warren 12%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 3%
O’Rourke 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Bennet 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%
Inslee, Williamson, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Bullock 0%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Biden number is very fluid but always seems to be in the 25-30% range.

[eric82oslo]

Yang at 5th place, it's happening.

[Mr. Morden]

August 13-16:

link

Biden 27%
Sanders 16%
Warren 12%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Bullock 0%

[Eraserhead]

Good to see Bernie bouncing back. Thought for sure that Warren was going to overtake him in this poll too after yesterday.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s their weekly aggregate, covering Aug. 9-16:

link

Biden 29%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
etc.

Which again, has such a large sample size that crosstabs are more meaningful:

age 18-34:
Sanders 29%
Biden 15%
Warren 7%
O’Rourke 7%

age 65+:
Biden 42%
Warren 14%
Harris 8%
Sanders 5%

white:
Biden 28%
Warren 14%
Sanders 13%
Harris 7%

black:
Biden 41%
Sanders 14%
Harris 9%
Warren 7%

Hispanic:
Sanders 24%
Biden 18%
O’Rourke 9%
Harris 7%
Warren 7%

Midwest:
Biden 31%
Sanders 15%
Warren 14%

Northeast:
Biden 26%
Sanders 16%
Warren 12%

South:
Biden 31%
Sanders 13%
Warren 9%

West:
Biden 24%
Sanders 19%
Warren 11%

urban:
Biden 27%
Sanders 17%
Warren 9%

suburban:
Biden 29%
Sanders 14%
Warren 13%

rural:
Biden 32%
Sanders 16%
Warren 9%

[Matty]

Hispanic:
Sanders 24%
Biden 18%
O’Rourke 9%
Harris 7%
Warren 7%

whoa

[Eraserhead]

Hispanic:
Sanders 24%
Biden 18%
O’Rourke 9%
Harris 7%
Warren 7%

whoa

What?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

8/19:
Biden - 27% (NC)
Sanders - 17% (+1)
Warren - 9% (-3)
Harris - 8% (+1)
O'Rourke - 4% (+1)
Buttigieg - 3% (-1)
Booker - 3% (+1)
Yang - 2% (NC)
Castro - 1% (NC)
Klobuchar - 1% (NC)
Gillibrand - 1% (NC)
Williamson - 1% (+1)
Bullock - 1% (+1)
Inslee - 1% (+1)
De Blasio - 1% (NC)
Steyer - 1% (NC)
Gabbard - 1% (NC)
Messam - 0% (NC)
Bennett - 0% (NC)
Ryan - 0% (NC)
Delaney - 0% (NC)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OK Scott, Warren is at 9%, dont believe it.

[Eraserhead]

Thank you, Scott!

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

YOWZA!!!  Great update for Senator Sanders!  Wine-drinking #woke suburbanites are gonna need a couple more bottles of rósè tonight to cope with the bad news.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls arent consistent with state by state polls showing Warren close to Biden. Scott still have flawed polls

[Terry the Fat Shark]

8/20:
Biden - 28% (+1)
Sanders - 17% (NC)
Warren - 9% (NC)
Harris - 7% (-1)
Buttigieg - 4% (+1)
O'Rourke - 3% (-1)
Booker - 3% (NC)
Yang - 2% (NC)
Castro - 1% (NC)
Klobuchar - 1% (NC)
Gillibrand - 1% (NC)
Gabbard - 1% (NC)
Inslee - 1% (NC)
Williamson - 1% (NC)
Ryan - 1% (+1)
Bullock - 1% (NC)
Messam - 0% (NC)
Delaney - 0% (NC)
Moulton - 0% (NC)
De Blasio - 0% (-1)

[Matty]

It’s funny

This poll seems accurate for every candidate except warren

Makes me undecided as to whether this is junk or not

[Eraserhead]

Boring update!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, the Warren surge has subsided since that Change Research poll in IA showed Warren ahead

[Mr. Morden]

On Monday, they also some numbers on 2-person head-to-head matchups, from interviews made from Aug. 16-18:

https://scottrasmussen.com/crosstabs-aug-16-18-two-day-totals/

Biden 44%
Sanders 38%

Biden 42%
Harris 38%

Warren 41%
Biden 39%

Sanders 42%
Harris 35%

Sanders 43%
Warren 37%

Harris 38%
Warren 33%

So yes, Warren loses to both Harris and Sanders, but Warren beats Biden, and Biden beats both Harris and Sanders.  Try to make sense out of that.

[izixs]

On Monday, they also some numbers on 2-person head-to-head matchups, from interviews made from Aug. 16-18:

https://scottrasmussen.com/crosstabs-aug-16-18-two-day-totals/

Biden 44%
Sanders 38%

Biden 42%
Harris 38%

Warren 41%
Biden 39%

Sanders 42%
Harris 35%

Sanders 43%
Warren 37%

Harris 38%
Warren 33%

So yes, Warren loses to both Harris and Sanders, but Warren beats Biden, and Biden beats both Harris and Sanders.  Try to make sense out of that.

A few possibilities:
- Soft support for multiple candidates such that if two favorites are put head to head they randomly pick one over the other as they actually don't have a preference.
- There's a faction that are anybody but these specific candidates which comes into play at different pairings. Say someone who is always against Biden and Sanders being undecided in a match up but going all in on Harris or Warren when they pop up, and so are in the undecided in some matchups but not others.
- The 'bernie bro' stereotype is larger than the fringe echoes suggest such that they are pro-Sanders in any matchup, support Harris over Warren because they see Warren as threat to Sanders, but are not enough to overcome the folks that prefer Biden over Sanders.
- The inverse of that above one: Folks that are never Sanders because socialism (or who never Harris because cop) who are warmer to Warren so will back her over Biden as she doesn't hit these specific buttons and they have reservations about Biden (just not as pressing). And in the other match ups they're overcome by more enthusiastic opposition numbers to not the deciding factor.
- People got tried of answering questions by the end so started going with what ever name was easier to go with.

[Mr. Morden]

August 18-21:

link

Biden 28%
Sanders 17%
Warren 10%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Gabbard 1%
Inslee 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bullock 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Messam, Moulton, Bennet, de Blasio, Sestak 0%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Warren, Harris, and O'Rourke went up 1%, Sanders and Biden unchanged

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren is gonna perform than than the Rassy polls indicate, the Change Research polls have given her leads in IA; Ca and MN state polls

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://scottrasmussen.com/three-day-democratic-primary-updates/

8/22:
Biden - 28% (NC)
Sanders - 17% (NC)
Warren - 10% (NC)
Harris - 7% (-1)
Buttigieg - 4% (NC)
O'Rourke - 3% (-1)
Booker - 2% (NC)
Yang - 2% (NC)
Castro - 1% (NC)
Klobuchar - 1% (NC)
Gillibrand - 1% (NC)
Gabbard - 1% (NC)
Williamson - 1% (NC)
Ryan - 1% (NC)
Bullock - 1% (NC)
Bennett - 1% (+1)
Steyer - 1% (NC)
The rest at 0%