Black vote for Nixon 1972 and Ford 1976
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  Black vote for Nixon 1972 and Ford 1976
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Author Topic: Black vote for Nixon 1972 and Ford 1976  (Read 1804 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: August 04, 2019, 06:07:34 PM »

Nixon got 18% of the black vote in 1972, and Ford got 16% in 1976. Pretty stunning numbers. Is it because McGovern was too liberal for the conservative black voters while blacks were turned off by Carter being a governor from the Deep South?

1976 was the last election in which a Republican got at least 15% of the black vote.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2019, 06:47:56 PM »

Nixon really got desegregation rolling and he did a lot for black small-business owners...even without considering McGovern.

Ford didn't really do much, and Carter was a reasonable fit in a lot of ways [questionable in some ways, but getting endorsed by The King Family put that to rest].
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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2019, 10:21:22 PM »

1976 was the last election in which a Republican got at least 15% of the black vote.

And the last one before Reagan came along proclaiming his support for “states’ rights”.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2019, 05:31:43 PM »

I'm curious the source of these numbers (18% and 16%). Gallup had 13% of the "nonwhite" vote going to Nixon and 15% to Ford. In Detroit's 8th, 22nd and 23rd Precincts, the vote for Nixon was 4.9%, 3.5%, and 4.2% while Ford's share was 4.9%, 4.1%, and 4.2% respectively (Reagan's 1980 share was just 1.7%, 1.6%, and 1.3%). Back then few Blacks lived in suburbs, and if anything white "stay-behinds" exaggerated Black Republicanism slightly.
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Wazza [INACTIVE]
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2019, 01:19:59 AM »

1976 was the last election in which a Republican got at least 15% of the black vote.

And the last one before Reagan came along proclaiming his support for “states’ rights”.

Oh please, Reagan got 14% of the AA vote in 80, which is only 2 less than Ford. Considering the inelasticity with the African American vote, generational turnover and Ford's appeal for being congressman who voted for the CRA, VRA, and AHA, thats not a shocking result.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2019, 06:31:04 AM »

I still find it insane even to this day that Eisenhower in 1956 is the last one to break at least 35 percent, but still lost it decisively by 22 points. When was the last time it was decided by less than 10
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2019, 09:05:29 AM »

I still find it insane even to this day that Eisenhower in 1956 is the last one to break at least 35 percent, but still lost it decisively by 22 points. When was the last time it was decided by less than 10

Likely when Hoover won it.  There is a reason the GOP became even more disenchanted with its support for civil rights in the ‘50s.
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mianfei
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2020, 07:42:54 AM »

Nixon really got desegregation rolling and he did a lot for black small-business owners...even without considering McGovern.
That’s interesting.

As a sidelight of sorts, in how many states did Nixon get a larger proportion of the black vote than McGovern did of the white vote?

I am almost absolutely sure that was the situation in all five Deep South states. It may possibly have been the situation in some of the Outer South states (NC and AR seem the most likely). Does anyone have details to confirm this?
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2020, 08:15:27 AM »

Nixon really got desegregation rolling and he did a lot for black small-business owners...even without considering McGovern.
That’s interesting.

As a sidelight of sorts, in how many states did Nixon get a larger proportion of the black vote than McGovern did of the white vote?

I am almost absolutely sure that was the situation in all five Deep South states. It may possibly have been the situation in some of the Outer South states (NC and AR seem the most likely). Does anyone have details to confirm this?
I feel pretty certain about Mississippi, though that would be hard to prove.

James Meredith's 1972 GOP Senate run would seem to indicate at least a fair number of Mississippi Blacks were still Republican in 1972. Black turnout was probably dismal in Mississippi that year, which may explain why fewer votes for President were cast in that state in 1972 than four years earlier. (In Jefferson County, McGovern received 55% of the PV, but about 1/4 fewer votes than Humphrey, who had received 63% of the PV, with 4% for Nixon and 33% for Wallace). However, when one looks at McGovern's percentages in places like George County (6.3%), Tishomingo County (9.5%), and Itawamba County (10.3%), it would appear McGovern's white vote percentage was almost certainly in the single digits, while Nixon's Black vote percentage may well have reached the low teens.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2020, 08:33:00 AM »

Nixon really got desegregation rolling and he did a lot for black small-business owners...even without considering McGovern.
That’s interesting.

As a sidelight of sorts, in how many states did Nixon get a larger proportion of the black vote than McGovern did of the white vote?

I am almost absolutely sure that was the situation in all five Deep South states. It may possibly have been the situation in some of the Outer South states (NC and AR seem the most likely). Does anyone have details to confirm this?
For historical reasons, it does make sense that in the 1970s, the Black vote in the Deep South may have been a bit more Republican than outside the South (though the 1968 results do not support this thesis). Perhaps this reasoning applies only to Black incumbents (Eisenhower in 1956, but not in 1952; Nixon and Ford in '72 and '76, but not Nixon '68 or Reagan '80). As late as 1992, I would say in the Jackson, MS area, Bush's Black vote percentage and Clinton's white vote percentage were probably similar. Hinds County in 1992 may have been the last Black-majority county to vote for Bush, and in adjacent Rankin County, which was 15% Black, Clinton got just 22.5%.

In Northern cities, Nixon and Ford appear to have gotten almost nothing from Black voters. In addition to the Detroit districts I cited earlier, Anacostia in Washington, DC voted 6.5% for Nixon in '72 and 4.1% for Ford in '76 (Reagan would get just 3.2% in 1980), while Roxbury and Mattapan in Boston gave Nixon around 10% in '72 and Ford less in '76. All of these percentages probably overstate the Black GOP vote slightly, because of white "stay-behinds".
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2020, 08:38:11 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 08:41:16 AM by STOP identity politics »

Nixon really got desegregation rolling and he did a lot for black small-business owners...even without considering McGovern.
That’s interesting.

As a sidelight of sorts, in how many states did Nixon get a larger proportion of the black vote than McGovern did of the white vote?

I am almost absolutely sure that was the situation in all five Deep South states. It may possibly have been the situation in some of the Outer South states (NC and AR seem the most likely). Does anyone have details to confirm this?
For historical reasons, it does make sense that in the 1970s, the Black vote in the Deep South may have been a bit more Republican than outside the South (though the 1968 results do not support this thesis). Perhaps this reasoning applies only to Black incumbents (Eisenhower in 1956, but not in 1952; Nixon and Ford in '72 and '76, but not Nixon '68 or Reagan '80). As late as 1992, I would say in the Jackson, MS area, Bush's Black vote percentage and Clinton's white vote percentage were probably similar. Hinds County in 1992 may have been the last Black-majority county to vote for Bush, and in adjacent Rankin County, which was 15% Black, Clinton got just 22.5%.

In Northern cities, Nixon and Ford appear to have gotten almost nothing from Black voters. In addition to the Detroit districts I cited earlier, Anacostia in Washington, DC voted 6.5% for Nixon in '72 and 4.1% for Ford in '76 (Reagan would get just 3.2% in 1980), while Roxbury and Mattapan in Boston gave Nixon around 10% in '72 and Ford less in '76. All of these percentages probably overstate the Black GOP vote slightly, because of white "stay-behinds".

Hinds was quite a bit whiter back in 1992. However since then it has gotten rapidly more black. In 2000 it was 61% black. Today it is 73% black. Even Trent Lott won Hinds in his 2000 senate election against the first black senate nominee.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2020, 08:40:54 AM »

Presidential elections are rare events, and Republicans tend to do better with the black vote when not running against a charismatic Black opponent or kicking off their campaign by giving a speech on states rights in Philadelphia, Mississippi.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2020, 08:47:32 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 09:05:02 AM by Calthrina950 »

Presidential elections are rare events, and Republicans tend to do better with the black vote when not running against a charismatic Black opponent or kicking off their campaign by giving a speech on states rights in Philadelphia, Mississippi.

I was just rewatching NBC News' Election Night Coverage from 1980, and it was mentioned by one of the anchors (Tom Brokaw) that "just about the only group" that Carter was doing well with that night were black voters. Carter won blacks 83-14-3% in 1980, performing better among them then he had in 1976, when he carried them 82-16% over Gerald Ford. Carter's improvement among black voters was probably a factor in keeping his losing margins so close throughout much of the South-especially in states like Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina-that year. And in 1984, Walter Mondale improved even further among black voters, winning them over Reagan 91-9%.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2020, 08:35:04 PM »

Presidential elections are rare events, and Republicans tend to do better with the black vote when not running against a charismatic Black opponent or kicking off their campaign by giving a speech on states rights in Philadelphia, Mississippi.

I was just rewatching NBC News' Election Night Coverage from 1980, and it was mentioned by one of the anchors (Tom Brokaw) that "just about the only group" that Carter was doing well with that night were black voters. Carter won blacks 83-14-3% in 1980, performing better among them then he had in 1976, when he carried them 82-16% over Gerald Ford. Carter's improvement among black voters was probably a factor in keeping his losing margins so close throughout much of the South-especially in states like Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina-that year. And in 1984, Walter Mondale improved even further among black voters, winning them over Reagan 91-9%.

And yet they got blown out, while Gore and Hillary both won the popular vote with less.

Tells a lot aout demographic shifts huh?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2020, 10:06:30 PM »

Presidential elections are rare events, and Republicans tend to do better with the black vote when not running against a charismatic Black opponent or kicking off their campaign by giving a speech on states rights in Philadelphia, Mississippi.

I was just rewatching NBC News' Election Night Coverage from 1980, and it was mentioned by one of the anchors (Tom Brokaw) that "just about the only group" that Carter was doing well with that night were black voters. Carter won blacks 83-14-3% in 1980, performing better among them then he had in 1976, when he carried them 82-16% over Gerald Ford. Carter's improvement among black voters was probably a factor in keeping his losing margins so close throughout much of the South-especially in states like Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina-that year. And in 1984, Walter Mondale improved even further among black voters, winning them over Reagan 91-9%.

And yet they got blown out, while Gore and Hillary both won the popular vote with less.

Tells a lot about demographic shifts huh?

This is correct. According to exit polls, Reagan won the white vote 56-36-8% against Carter and Anderson in 1980, and 66-34% against Mondale in 1984. In other words, in the 1980 election, he got about the same percentage of the white vote as Trump did against Clinton in 2016, and by almost the exact same margin (Trump won whites 56-37% over Clinton). Yet, while doing only slightly better than Trump among black and Hispanic voters, Reagan won by nearly 10% and carried 44 states, while Trump lost by 2% and barely eked out an Electoral College majority. The demographic changes-especially in Reagan's home state of California, which he won by 17% in both 1980 and 1984, have been massive.

Nevertheless, the black vote was already critical for Democrats by that point-without it, Carter would have lost Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina in 1976, and probably would have lost Alabama and North Carolina as well-to say nothing of Maryland, Delaware, and Missouri. And that would have cost him the election. And in 1980, Reagan would have won all of the Southern States he carried by more without the black vote.
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