Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.

[Xing]

Tate Reeves is a sweaty ginger and gives off Fat Pat vibes.

Jim Hood to pull a Joe Manchin?

I mean, I’m one of like three people on this forum who thinks he’s more likely to win than Beshear. It obviously won’t be easy, but I think people are underrating his chances.

You, me and IceSpear. Mississippi is a much more favorable state for Hood than KY is for Bevin. But whatever. Guess people didn’t learn from Mary Fallin

Actually, I guess that makes four of us, though it will be hard for Hood. Lean/Likely R.

[DaWN]

Tate Reeves is a sweaty ginger and gives off Fat Pat vibes.

Jim Hood to pull a Joe Manchin?

I mean, I’m one of like three people on this forum who thinks he’s more likely to win than Beshear. It obviously won’t be easy, but I think people are underrating his chances.

You, me and IceSpear. Mississippi is a much more favorable state for Hood than KY is for Bevin. But whatever. Guess people didn’t learn from Mary Fallin

Actually, I guess that makes four of us, though it will be hard for Hood. Lean/Likely R.

Five actually, although polling hasn't be great for Hood and I'm beginning to think it's too far a reach.

[pops]

GOP -
Tate Reeves 48%
Bill Waller 35%
Robert Foster 17%

DEM -
Jim Hood 53%
Robert Shuler Smith 32%
Others 15%

I'm pretty uncertain about the Dem primary, Hood could run away with it or it could go to a runoff. I think Republicans are looking at a runoff though.

I was essentially right on the GOP prediction, and I was very right to be uncertain about the Dem prediction. Rob Smith got *fourth*, probably making that my worst prediction since the 2018 MO GOP Senate primary.

Just going to predict the runoff here:

Reeves 53%
Waller 47%

[OneJ]

Now I know that Rankin County has a tradition in voting for Republican candidates who are less conservative in the primaries, but it really says a lot that Reeves couldn't even win this county as it is his home county. For the GOP Runoff, I'll predict 59% Reeves and 41% Waller.

[smoltchanov]

Now I know that Rankin County has a tradition in voting for Republican candidates who are less conservative in the primaries, but it really says a lot that Reeves couldn't even win this county as it is his home county. For the GOP Runoff, I'll predict 59% Reeves and 41% Waller.

My guess was 60-40, so we are very close. Republicans will, most likely, increase their margin in state Senate (their targets - 5, 8, 37, 48, Democratic - 22, and, may be, 9 and 10), but Democrats may gain a little in House (Republican targets being 122, 12, and, may be, 22 and 75, Democratic - 40, 102, 90, 64, 10, may be - 115 and 13) ..

[Del Tachi]

Runoff predictions (for now):

Reeves:  57%
Waller:  43%

A very underwhelming performance for Reeves, Waller will win more counties in the runoff than he did in the first round.

Fitch: 65%
Taggart:  35%

Fitch is going to bloody Andy in the AG runoff because she can attack him on his lukewarmness toward Trump. 

[smoltchanov]

Runoff predictions (for now):

Reeves:  57%
Waller:  43%

A very underwhelming performance for Reeves, Waller will win more counties in the runoff than he did in the first round.

Fitch: 65%
Taggart:  35%

Fitch is going to bloody Andy in the AG runoff because she can attack him on his lukewarmness toward Trump. 

Sincerely - can't explain logically how such disgusting person as Trump became an idol (no less) of Republican party...[/offtopic]

[DINGO Joe]

Runoff predictions (for now):

Reeves:  57%
Waller:  43%

A very underwhelming performance for Reeves, Waller will win more counties in the runoff than he did in the first round.

Fitch: 65%
Taggart:  35%

Fitch is going to bloody Andy in the AG runoff because she can attack him on his lukewarmness toward Trump. 

Sincerely - can't explain logically how such disgusting person as Trump became an idol (no less) of Republican party...[/offtopic]

Well, Mississippi is really really racist.

[terp40hitch]

My runoff prediction:
Reeves: 58%
Waller: 42%

Reeves walks out of the primary with underwhelming numbers and is beaten and bruised from the attacks from Waller and Foster. Reeves will still have the upper hand in the general election since it is an off-year and it is in the deep Republican south.

General Election: Lean/Tilt R

In the end, most likely the result will be:

Reeves: 55%
Hood: 44%
Other: 1%

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/GanucheauAdam/status/1162087509343576067

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Surprised that Foster endorsed Waller in the runoff, I am hoping for Waller since this GOP runoff is the real MS gov race now, Hood does not stand a chance. Reeves will still win though.

[Del Tachi]

Just messing around with some numbers in my head...

Waller's base is more motivated, so he get's 70% of his August 6 vote in the runoff.

Reeves' base is more marginal and he relied more on name recognition on August 6, so let's say he gets 55% of his August 6 turnoff.

40% of Foster's August 6 voters turn-out again for the runoff, and let's be generous and assume they break 60-40 for Waller.

Results:

Tate Reeves:  111,268 votes (51.9%)
Bill Waller: 103,240 votes (48.1%)

This is probably Waller's best case scenario.

[gespb19]

Just messing around with some numbers in my head...

Waller's base is more motivated, so he get's 70% of his August 6 vote in the runoff.

Reeves' base is more marginal and he relied more on name recognition on August 6, so let's say he gets 55% of his August 6 turnoff.

40% of Foster's August 6 voters turn-out again for the runoff, and let's be generous and assume they break 60-40 for Waller.

Results:

Tate Reeves:  111,268 votes (51.9%)
Bill Waller: 103,240 votes (48.1%)

This is probably Waller's best case scenario.

I think you're vastly underestimating turnout. In your scenario, turnout drops about 45%. I think it decreases by about 10-12%.

Waller's path, which is obviously a longshot, is 1) 100% of his voters show back up, 2) 80% of Reeves show back up, 3) 100% of Foster voters show back up and break 2-1 for Waller. That gets Waller to 50.1% and a win under 1,000 voters.



Of course, this gives you absurd results like Waller nearly winning DeSoto and Tate after doing very poorly there on 8/6. But it'll take something like that happening for him to win. That or massively overperforming there in Jackson (75% in Hinds/Madison, 60% in Rankin).

[walleye26]

Alright, the runoff is Tuesday? Any last second surprises anybody wants to predict?

[gespb19]

56-44 Reeves.

[Oryxslayer]

Alright, the runoff is Tuesday? Any last second surprises anybody wants to predict?

I think its fair that if Reeves comes anywhere close to losing everyone has a plate of crow.

[Tender Branson]

Reeves will lose 49-51.

[Oryxslayer]

With only a few more hours to go, who do you think the GOP would prefer? The more notable Reeves who can juice turnout among the McDaniel/Evangelical wing in this turnout driven state, or Waller who can deny Hood access to certain voters?

[OneJ]

Now I know that Rankin County has a tradition in voting for Republican candidates who are less conservative in the primaries, but it really says a lot that Reeves couldn't even win this county as it is his home county. For the GOP Runoff, I'll predict 59% Reeves and 41% Waller.

I'm sticking with a 59-41 Reeves win.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My runoff prediction

Reeves 55% - Waller 45%

[Matty]

Just to review, Waller is the guy who is liked by moderate suburban college repubs right?

[DINGO Joe]

Just to review, Waller is the guy who is liked by moderate suburban college repubs right?

Yes, therefore 70-30 Reeves!

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/27/us/elections/results-mississippi-governor-primary-runoff-election.html

We are live!

[DINGO Joe]

Supposedly super low turnout in the Memphis and Jackson areas.

[gespb19]

Reeves winning precincts that Taggart is winning doesn't bode well for Waller.