Danish Elections and Politics

[ingemann]

Calls for Løkke and Jensen to quit simultaneously



There is an now an increasing number of calls from Liberal councillors and local chairmen for both Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Kristian Jensen to quit. Their actions are called irresponsible and entrenching the party's division into two person-driven wings. Many of them mention a possible "dream ticket" to replace them with Jakob Ellemann-Jensen as leader and Stephanie Lose, Chairman of Southern Denmark Region & the Association of Regions, as deputy leader.

Are there any ideological differences between the mentioned wings (Jensen and Lokke)?

Not really, as the reasons for support from the members of the rest of the party for either are completely disconnected from their individual ideology and only build on personal like and dislike. The “national conservative” among the MPs really hate Jensen, and as such they support anybody else. But that’s more a case of personality crashing than anything else.

Honestly the entire thing is more a question about style, personalities  and personal gain than anything else.

Løkke is a corrupt and amoral person only looking out for number one, but he’s competent and incredible skilled at surviving,

Jensen is not personally corrupt, but he thirst for power only for the sake of power, and what’s worse, while he want to be a leader, he’s really only have skill set and competence to be a follower.

Ellemann-Jensen the likely alternative leader are competent, but he’s also mostly a unwritten book, which people can project their own hopes and goal on.

[ingemann]

How has the spat between Danish PM and Trump over Trump's crazy idea of buying Greenland gone over in Denmark.  Does it help PM or do a little shrug their shoulders and just say this is Trump being Trump?

Well it have gone over really incredible badly, and no while we understand this is just Trump being Trump, this also project on the rest of USA, it simply make it clear that a change Løkke made to Danish foreign policy have to continue. Danish foreign policy have since 1866 been about our relationship to Berlin, in this relationship we have always sought friendships which allowed us to keep independence from Berlin. It became clear with the Trump and the Brexit that USA and UK no longer served that purpose, so Denmark have begun seeking a closer relationship with France. Trump’s behavior have ensured that that line will be continued under the new government.

[ingemann]

What ever happened to Liberal Alliance? Can they bounce back or were they just a fad?

They acted in a bizarre way during the last term, was the main cause of the internal "Blue Bloc" squabbling and ended up as a laughing stock. They repeatedly said they would take down the Liberal government if they didn't get all the top tax cuts they wanted, despite nothing near a majority for these proposals. Once the crisis had escalated, they then instead dropped those demands and joined the government instead (which basically continued the policies of the previous Liberal government). Inside the government, they continued to create crises, e.g. threatening to vote against the government's own budget. So in addition to the "normal failure" of being a radical party going into a government which wasn't very radical, they were a common joke due to their intense and frequent threats without following up on any of them.
I think they should have a decent chance of a bounce back. The old leadership, Anders Samuelsen and Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, is gone, and the new leader Alex Vanopslagh seems like a good fit to reconnect with the young, liberal voters. Most of the internal troubles should be finished now that Ammitzbøll-Bille and his clique has left the party, but that did have some negative consequences in terms of party support as they are only three MPs now. 

I don’t think a bounce are impossible, but right now I don’t think it will happen, they seem to want to fight over the same voting segment as New Right and Conservatives. And both these parties have much greater credibility, New Right as more hardline and Conservative as pragmatic. I think LA would have been off moving to the position Ammitzbøl have taken, the problem is that Vanopslagh have moved to the place which fit his worldview. Of course Ammitzbøl is unlikely to really gain anything even without LA not competing for the same segment, thanks to his complete lack of charisma or credibility.

I predict that LA will either die by next election or only barely surviving. The only hope they have is that DPP kills New Right or New Right moving to the left on the economic issues to compete with DPP. I don’t see LA really being able to make a credible move away from there they stand anymore.

[ingemann]

Are there any plans to form a new party led by Stöjberg? All the speculation i've seen in danish media are about her either joining DF or NB.

Unlikely she have very little to gain by forming a new party and there is not really a open niche for her political platform. DF and NB would also love to get her, when most politicians make a new party, it’s either because they’re unwelcome in other parties or because they see a open niche for their party. If we look at Støjberg purely ideological there’s plenty of politicians in parliament who are pretty much the same place as her. Tesfaye is more economic left wing, but the main difference in integration politics is simply that he’s not a ***hole.

[ingemann]

The Independent Greens, the former Alternative establishment with Elbæk & co, are starting to speed up their collection of signatures a fair bit, and could be able to reach eligibility. The party was registrered on 08.06.2020 and have now collected 10 012 signatures. In order to become eligible for the general election, you need to collect 20 182 signatures, and a signature cannot be more than 18 months old. So this means 1 121 signatures a month with a linear pace, and it seems like they have been a bit above that pace in recent months.

It's really interesting, the rumors says that Siddique did a lot of reaching out to Islamic groups before the last election*, I wonder whether he have done so again and whether they have delivered the signature they can deliver. That would affect whether we can see a linear pace in new signature. We can also expect that Siddique Pakistan network (as we know from his election to the  Municipal Council of Copenhagen in 2005 that he's up to his neck in Pakistani client networks**) have delivered the signature they can.

*Not that Siddique is a Islamist to my knowledge, it seem more a result of Siddique promising them he would work for policies, which these group could deliver.

**Weekendavisen 37/2020 (Frontalangreb fra Nørrebro)

[ingemann]

It is possible to have a governing majority with alternative left parties, who do not agree with the analysis. In Denmark, the Social Democrats could attract DPP and Liberal voters across the middle, while accepting to bleed some cosmopolitan voters to the alternative left parties. Because the alternative left parties were willing to support Frederiksen as PM, and allow her to carry out the policies of the majority (both in parliament and the population) on immigration.

This is possible in Denmark, where there is an understanding that voting for any of the left-wing parties will get you a left-wing government. It would not be possible in, say, Germany, where all of the three left parties are completely independent and do not form any kind of natural unit.

It's more a result of the vioters tend to punish parties, which cause the other block to take gain power, which force some discipline on the parties. A major reason why the Social Liberals are trapped on the left block even through many think it fit better on the right is because its voters are far more leftwing than the party and mainly votes for the party based on it being "woke". It's also why it was so hard hit by revelation of the it's "party* culture".

*as in both meanings of the word party.

[ingemann]

Inger Støjberg received an unconditional sentence of 60 days. After a bizarre impeachment trial, which could only be followed via the writings of the Støjberg-hostile media, the former Immigration Minister received an absurdly tough sentence. I thought it would be a 20-6 majority for a sentence as the Liberal + Conservative judges were appointed before the two parties turned their backs on her, but it ended with a 25-1 sentence as the Liberals and Conservative judges followed the lead of their MPs who had voted to impeach her. So the outcome mirrored the impeachment vote in parliament with only DPP voting against (New Right + Lars Løkke weren't represented among the judges).

Now the same majority will vote to revoke her status as a MP, finalizing the deep state's charade. The first alternate for her is Gitte Willumsen, who ran as a Liberal in 2019, but has since changed to the Conservatives.

Now we await to see what she decides in relation to her future in politics. In the short term, there's soon a leadership election in DPP, so we will see whether she will want to involve her in that in any regard. I'm quite certain this sentence hasn't moved the needle much for DPP electors, but I'm less certain whether Støjberg wants to throw herself into the mix. Thulelsen Dahl just said that she could of course still become a good DPP leader.

Unsurprisingly I (and just everybody not voting DF or NB) don't agree with Diouf's take on this.
Støjberg was convicted for setting aside existing legislation and all the juridical judges (the full Supreme Court) agreed on her being guilding of ignoring Ministeransvarsloven (the law defining the limitations and responsibilities of ministers of the state). Only the civil judge from Dansk Folkeparti voted against. That is massive and a clear signal that Støjberg vent too far trying to separate underage married refugees.
The sentence is harsh, and some of the juridical judges didn’t support a prison sentence – but Støjberg insisting on she did noting wrong, in some way forced the court’s hand.
There is absolutely no “Deep State” in this. That is nothing but a conspiracy myth!
The wild thing is that Støjberg could have avoided all this if she had just admitted that she did something, she wasn’t allowed to do and accepted the “nose” from parliament and probably resigned as Minister for Integration (just to return later, like former PM Anders Fogh did, when he was caught being naughy as Minister of Taxation)

Interesting Leif Donbæk Thomsen, a expect in impeachment court, told in the Podcast “Udestuen” before the conviction that while he wouldn’t talk about whether Støjberg was guilty or not, if she was found guilty he would expect her to get a sentence like this.

I also agree that this impeachment wouldn’t have happened if Støjberg hadn’t provoked RFØ. The fact that she changed explanation several times and then suddenly found the note pretty much ensured this. I also found it rather clear from early on that she would be found guilty, when the civil servants didn’t back her up.

[ingemann]

Dear God, what niche would yet another party fill? How would a Støjberg party even differ from NB?

The entire Støjberg case remains absolutely scandalous (how the hell does a democratic country just "fire" an MP elected by the people and send her to jail for things she did as a minister that a parliamentary majority approved of at the time) and I sincerely wonder why there hasn't been more attention for it throughout Europe - probably because it doesn't fit the narrative of Denmark as anti-immigration nation.

A parliamentary majority doesn’t give her a right to break the law, and if you break the law you sometimes end up in prison and if a MP end up in prison the Danish parliament declare that person unfit to sit in parliament.

There are problems with the Danish rules on unfitness to sit in parliament, but that Støjberg after being impeached and convicted is forced to leave parliament is not one of them.

Of course you could raise the question about impeachment in Denmark, it’s a tool which is rarely used and in this case was mainly used because Støjberg kept openly and obviously lying to parliament, if she at any point had said “oops that was a mistake” or if she had been less obviously lying, she would likely not have been impeached.

[ingemann]

Are the social democrats to the right of Venstre on immigration?

A pretty good question, I was thinking long about it and I don’t think there’s a real answer.

The Social Democrats have put immigration into a Social Democratic ideological context, which mean their stand on the issue are much more coherent and because the policy have been put into a ideological context, it also translate far easier to UL and SPP even if don’t agree with it.

For Venstre, their opposition toward immigration run against their core ideology, as such for a big part of the more liberal members of the party the opposition to immigration is solely a populist policy, which they deep down feel ashamed over. Of course a big part of the party including most of their membership are not ideological liberals like the party, but conservatives and for them the a hard line on immigration fit well into their belief and many would like a even harder line.

I would say because the Social Democratic view is more ideological coherent and represent it voters (through not necessary members) pretty well, their implementation of the anti-immigration policies are less populist.

[ingemann]

Voxmeter's first poll with a whole week after Støjberg launching the party. Others at 10.1%, and since no other parties are remotely close to reaching the signature threshold, it should basically only be votes for Denmark Democrats. That would clearly make the party the third biggest in the Blue Bloc, and Liberals and Conservatives are only at 13.6% and 12.3% respectively as the two biggest parties. Of course this is after a week with massive focus on her, so not necessarily accurate about how an election result would be. But that position as the third biggest Blue party should certainly be possible to achieve. DPP all the way down at 2.2%, so very close to the treshold.

I wonder whether we will get many more polls in the next weeks. Normally, there isn't much polling during the summer holidays. So perhaps the next polls won't be until mid-/end august, where the early election campaign should basically already be starting.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FW0G-uLXwAA3HOt?format=jpg&name=900x900

Also worth mentioning that the Mink report has had no discernible effect on the Social Democrats poll numbers yet. The report was released halfway through the polling period but really there was massive talk about the report being damaging in the days leading up to it dropping.

I always saw the main risk for MF and the party to be whether it would end up with a impeachment. The truth is that I doubt many normal people really care about this, unless they already dislike MF.

[ingemann]

Rasmussen is willing to support the Red Bloc? That's... weird, right?

Not really, while Rasmussen is mainly driven by what’s best for number one, but as politician he has always been something of a technocrat. While the existing SocDem leadership is one of the more ideological than in decades, they also see power in a very similar way to Rasmussen than many liberals or conservatives. We should also not forget that Rasmussen is furious at his old party.

But in the end I expect he will support Pape as PM in Conservative, Liberal, Moderate (Social Liberal if the latter is stupid enough to be convinced to join such a government) government against Løkke getting some of the important ministries. Of course it’s not impossible that Sofie Carsten Nielsen will make the same mistake as Hilmar Baunsgaard (Social Liberal PM in 1968-71) and end up as PM for a short lived government.

[ingemann]

Rasmussen is willing to support the Red Bloc? That's... weird, right?

Not really, while Rasmussen is mainly driven by what’s best for number one, but as politician he has always been something of a technocrat. While the existing SocDem leadership is one of the more ideological than in decades, they also see power in a very similar way to Rasmussen than many liberals or conservatives. We should also not forget that Rasmussen is furious at his old party.

But in the end I expect he will support Pape as PM in Conservative, Liberal, Moderate (Social Liberal if the latter is stupid enough to be convinced to join such a government) government against Løkke getting some of the important ministries. Of course it’s not impossible that Sofie Carsten Nielsen will make the same mistake as Hilmar Baunsgaard (Social Liberal PM in 1968-71) and end up as PM for a short lived government.

Why do you think that what Baunsgaard did was a mistake? I'm not familiar with that era of Danish politics, but on the surface using a historic result to become the first Social Liberal PM in half a century even when he led the smallest party in his coalition doesn't seem half bad.

Because he got he position as PM, but he had to implement the Conservatives and Liberals politics. It’s better to get your politics through than becoming PM. Over the next decade the Social Liberal also almost completely collapsed. Politics is not about getting the big hat, it’s about implementing your politics in the long term and I think Baunsgaard weakened the Social Liberals for a decade. It’s the same reason I see Vestager as a failure as Social Liberal leader as she sought short term gain over long term gain.

[ingemann]

Such a government would require Støjberg to have a majority, at least according to that poll. Would RV work with her?

Diouf is almost certainly correct, but I don’t think it’s impossible in 2011 Rasmussen did offer the Social Liberal the position as PM and that would have been with DPP votes and DPP didn’t object, of course this was primarily tactic to weaken the SocDem and make the new government dysfunctional.

[ingemann]

The issue with a cross-bloc government is that it would likely be a death wish to any party that facilitated it. A right wing government with the support of Radikale would almost certainly need the support of the Denmark Democrats or a similar party. Either the latter sells out or Radikale backs a government that is worse on immigration and especially the environment than a Social Democratic one from their voters pov. If the Liberals backed a mostly Red government, then they would absolutely be overtaken by the Conservatives at the next election. Polling has shown a lot of voters like the idea of a cross-bloc government, but in reality they will kick off once they discover their favoured party has to work with party x and implement policies xyz.

I completely agree, but it’s pretty much part of the Social Liberal self-understanding that they’re the center of Danish politics and they can change side if they feel they can get more influence on the other side. Yes in reality it will mean their voters will rebel and they risk a lot of their MP leaving the party, but sometimes self delusion wins out. They will bring up their history in the 80ties, completely ignoring the fact that their cooperation with the right resulted in some of their worst elections ever.

I don’t expect it or see it as likely, but we should not ignore it could happen.

As for Red-Blue government I agree that won’t happen, the SocDem would have far greater interest in letting the right self-destruct and take power next election, than joining in the self-destruction.

[ingemann]

Why is there such an obsession with a cross-bloc government anyway? The Danish bloc system seems to function well enough and is good for democracy as voters have a better idea of what they will get.

Likely a mix of factors. Danish culture embrace consensus and dislike extremism (as in things falling outside the consensus). The social liberals are overrepresented among the cultural elite and among journalists and they fetishize cross-bloc compromises [1], so they love to sell this idea. The people (5-10%) who decides Danish election through shifting between the blocs also obvious loves the idea. So you have a culture who value broad compromises, strong voice in the public room who love the idea of cross-bloc coalitions and the most important voter segment who also like the idea, this gives the idea strength even while a clear majority is against it.

[1] the Social Democrats, Conservative and Liberals all like cross-bloc compromises, but they do so for pragmatic reasons, while the Social Liberals likes it for it own sake.

[ingemann]

New poll by Megafon for TV2 and Politiken regarding the party leaders.
For all the questions, respondents can give up to three answers.

Obviously some quite dismal numbers for Carsten Nielsen, and the format of the poll illustrates that the Social Liberals do no have many fans among other parties. While many voters are happy to also say something positive about party leaders in their bloc, and even about the centrist Løkke Rasmussen, then it seems from these numbers that very few other than Social Liberal voters are supportive of the Social Liberal leader. The right wing voters distrust the party on immigration and value questions, the left wing voters dislike them due to their economic policies and because they will no-confidence the government.

The stories about Pape has taken its toll. In the previous poll, he was clearly ahead in the trustworthy poll, but now he is just one of the four in a tight race for first spot. Lars Løkke overperforms his party by a lot, so its interesting whether he is able to utilize that once the campaign starts, and people will see him a lot in debates etc. I thought he did very well in the recent EU referendum campaign. Of course terrible numbers for Messerschmidt, even on competence where he would have probably scored high a few years ago as an eloquent speaker and debater. There is none of the cross-bloc appeal which Thulelsen Dahl had in his good years, and even the other Blue voters seem reluctant to get behind him. Støjberg is mostly on par with the three centre-right leaders. She perhaps benefits from both being able to get support from DPP and New Right voters, as well as a fair share of support from the centre-right.

Who is the most sympathetic party leader?

38% Pia Olsen Dyhr
35% Søren Pape Poulsen
30% Mette Frederiksen
25% Alex Vanopslagh
22% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
22% Inger Støjberg
22% Mai Villadsen
19% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
08% Pernille Vermund
08% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
05% Franciska Rosenkilde
04% Sikandar Siddique
04% Marianne Karlsmose
04% Morten Messerschmidt

Who is the most skilled politician?

46% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
45% Mette Frederiksen
31% Inger Støjberg
26% Søren Pape Poulsen
25% Alex Vanopslagh
21% Pia Olsen Dyhr
21% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
11% Morten Messerschmidt
11% Mai Villadsen
10% Pernille Vermund
06% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
02% Franciska Rosenkilde
01% Sikandar Siddique
01% Marianne Karlsmose

Who is the most trustworthy party leader?

32% Mette Frederiksen
31% Pia Olsen Dyhr
31% Søren Pape Poulsen
30% Alex Vanopslagh
26% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
26% Inger Støjberg
21% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
17% Mai Villadsen
14% Pernille Vermund
08% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
04% Morten Messerschmidt
04% Franciska Rosenkilde
03% Marianne Karlsmose
02% Sikandar Siddique

Ouch for Siddique, Messerschmidt and Carsten Nielsen. Rosenkilde and Karlsmose have the benefit that no one knows them and they can surprise positive in election, but those three are all well known and very active in the media and still get such dismal numbers. I think Carsten Nielsen is best off as she doesn’t carry the party on her own and the Social Liberals often take a honor in being unpopular (through the whole skilled rating have to hurt), but both Siddique and Messerschmidt mostly carry their party on their own.