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August 19, 2022, 03:10:09 AM
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Author Topic: Danish Elections and Politics  (Read 32091 times)
ingemann
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« Reply #375 on: August 05, 2022, 05:00:55 PM »

The issue with a cross-bloc government is that it would likely be a death wish to any party that facilitated it. A right wing government with the support of Radikale would almost certainly need the support of the Denmark Democrats or a similar party. Either the latter sells out or Radikale backs a government that is worse on immigration and especially the environment than a Social Democratic one from their voters pov. If the Liberals backed a mostly Red government, then they would absolutely be overtaken by the Conservatives at the next election. Polling has shown a lot of voters like the idea of a cross-bloc government, but in reality they will kick off once they discover their favoured party has to work with party x and implement policies xyz.

I completely agree, but it’s pretty much part of the Social Liberal self-understanding that they’re the center of Danish politics and they can change side if they feel they can get more influence on the other side. Yes in reality it will mean their voters will rebel and they risk a lot of their MP leaving the party, but sometimes self delusion wins out. They will bring up their history in the 80ties, completely ignoring the fact that their cooperation with the right resulted in some of their worst elections ever.

I don’t expect it or see it as likely, but we should not ignore it could happen.

As for Red-Blue government I agree that won’t happen, the SocDem would have far greater interest in letting the right self-destruct and take power next election, than joining in the self-destruction.
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crals
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« Reply #376 on: August 06, 2022, 02:23:49 PM »

Why is there such an obsession with a cross-bloc government anyway? The Danish bloc system seems to function well enough and is good for democracy as voters have a better idea of what they will get.
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ingemann
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« Reply #377 on: August 06, 2022, 03:56:05 PM »

Why is there such an obsession with a cross-bloc government anyway? The Danish bloc system seems to function well enough and is good for democracy as voters have a better idea of what they will get.

Likely a mix of factors. Danish culture embrace consensus and dislike extremism (as in things falling outside the consensus). The social liberals are overrepresented among the cultural elite and among journalists and they fetishize cross-bloc compromises [1], so they love to sell this idea. The people (5-10%) who decides Danish election through shifting between the blocs also obvious loves the idea. So you have a culture who value broad compromises, strong voice in the public room who love the idea of cross-bloc coalitions and the most important voter segment who also like the idea, this gives the idea strength even while a clear majority is against it.

[1] the Social Democrats, Conservative and Liberals all like cross-bloc compromises, but they do so for pragmatic reasons, while the Social Liberals likes it for it own sake.

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Diouf
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« Reply #378 on: August 08, 2022, 01:40:55 PM »

Newspaper Børsen asked some of the remaining MPs how they would vote if we end up with a Social Liberal motion of no-confidence on the 4 October if Mette Frederiksen has not called an election before that. Independent Greens will vote no-confidence, and also would have wanted the independent lawyer review of whether impeachment proceedings could start against Mette Frederiksen. Three of the ex-DPP MPs, Søren Espersen, Dennis Flydtkjær and Jens Henrik Thulesen Dahl, will also vote for no-confidence. Six of the other ex-DPP MPs have started a working group, Geese and Ganders, have not made up their mind yet. Independent MPs Jens Rohde and Naser Khader will vote against. Quite surprising with the latter, but maybe he would just want his remaining paychecks to last as long as possible.

Voxmeter published their first poll after Denmark Democrats became eligible. And they find Støjberg's party at 11.2%. Social Democrats are at 22.9%, their lowest in a Voxmeter poll since March 2015. As usual, Voxmeter has Moderates 1% or more lower than in other polls, so here they are at 1.9% and without seats. This means the poll has a Blue Bloc majority without Løkke.
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Diouf
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« Reply #379 on: August 10, 2022, 01:35:34 PM »

A collection of news:

Gallup released their first post summer holiday poll, and they are in a similar range as the others with Denmark Democrats at 10.2%, Social Democrats down at 23.5% and DPP at 1.8%. They are more positive on Løkke with the Moderates at 4.1% and the decisive seats. Now we only need a YouGov poll to have a complete set of polls from the all five pollsters with regular Danish polls.

With the election campaign expected soon, the parties are starting to present their major proposals for that campaign. The Liberals presented a housing plan where the key aim is that more people get the chance to enter the housing market. People who haven't yet bought a house will be able to get a deduction if they enter money into a housing savings account. They can save up to 50.000 a year in five years, and will then get a deduction worth 20% of that amount. There should be economic incentives for municipalities to build more owner-occupied homes and reduce the length of the permit process. They also want to reduce fees for buying cheap homes in rural areas, and reduce the livability demands of owner-occupied apartments in big cities, so more small and cheap apartments can be created.

The Social Liberals has presented an economic 2030 plan. It includes cutting taxes and fees for innovators, give companies deductibles for expenses on research and development, making the public sector more effective, removing the last parts of the efterløn early retirement scheme, remove the right to a municipial job for certain seniors, reduce the interest deductible for house owners, a higher in-work deductible, a higher limit for when you have to pay the top tax rate and more investments in education and green energy

The most woke Danish elected representative, MEP Karen Melchior, has finally left the Social Liberals. The party doesn't have the power to exclude members, but in May the party's executive committee urged her to resign as MEP. After repeated stories of harrassment of staff and eruptions of anger aimed at employees elsewhere, Melchior at first announced that she went on sick leave. However, she kept working as MEP during that so-called sick leave, which was the last straw for the Social Liberal leadership. Now she's left the party, but of course stays as MEP. I haven't seen anything yet about whether she can stay in the ALDE group. I've speculated previously that she might do something a bit special like joining Volt or a foreign party. For now she's an independent.

The socialdemocrat author Lars Olsen, who has been a big inspiration for the party's workerite turn, was interviewed in Jyllands-Posten, where he criticized the party's hesitation in staying on that line. "I'm afraid that Mette Frederiksen is trying to please everyone with a broad, diffuse project, which attempts to also embrace urban voters with focus on green issues and international leadership. There is a fear to challenge the privileged urban environments, and the whole budget is now spent on climate and weapons. Where is the focus on welfare and de-centralisation which was key in 2019?". He says the party shouldn't have changed course after the 2019 local elections, as the loss of voters was mostly due to the mink scandal. He says the party then became scared of losing more urban voters, which can be seen in dropping the attempt to cut university places. He also refers to the Laura Rosenvinge/normstormers case, and says the party risks being seen as a woke, secretarian party for wealthy people in Copenhagen if it does not reject her ideas. Those voters already have two (Social Liberal, Red-Green Alliance), if not three (SPP) good options to vote for. The Social Democrats should be the party to reach the broad working class around the country. Therefor Støjberg's Denmark Democrats will be a big challenge for them.

He also warns the party to lean into a Mette Frederiksen-centric campaign with her as the uniting force in a cross-bloc government, as this would give too big a focus on her negative sides which has become more evident as the mink scandal was revealed. He proposes that the party makes some significant policy suggestions, like an extra top tax rate on earning above 800.000 DKK and withdrawing from the retirement deal, where a majority of parties have decided to raise retirement age every five years if the life expectancy keeps rising.
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Diouf
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« Reply #380 on: August 11, 2022, 01:28:29 PM »

YouGov for BT published their poll, so we can now make the first average of the five usual pollsters post-Denmark Democrats. You can argue about where to put the Social Liberals. Could considering putting them alongside the Moderates once the election is called.
It sounds like Søren Pape will soon make an announcement on whether or not he is officially a candidate for PM. I assume he will declare himself a candidate, and the party's argument should probably be that the Blue PM candidate with the most seats supporting him should become PM. Whereas the Liberal argument would probably be the biggest party should get the post. Because right now it seems more likely that a majority of the other blue seats would end up supporting Pape, while it's on a knife edge which of the two becomes the biggest party.

Red Bloc
Social Democrats 23.7% 43 seats
Social Liberals 6.4% 11
SPP 8.4% 15
Red-Green Alliance 7.2% 13
Alternative 0.9% 0
Independent Greens 0.4% 0
Vegan Party 0.4% 0
SUM: 47.4% 82

Blue Bloc
Conservatives 12.6% 23
New Right 4.9% 9
Liberal Alliance 3.9% 7
DPP 2.3% 4
Liberals 13.1% 24
Denmark Democrats 11.0% 20
Christian Democrats 0.8% 0
SUM: 48.6% 87

Moderates 3.5% 6
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Diouf
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« Reply #381 on: August 15, 2022, 10:12:46 AM »

Pape wants to be PM

Today the Conservative leader Søren Pape announced that he aims to become PM after the upcoming general election. As expected, he said the he aims to form a "blue" government, and that he believes the blue PM candidate supported by the most seats should become PM if there's a blue majority. Polls in recent days have shown that voters support Pape as PM over Ellemann, both among all voters and among the Blue voters only.
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Diouf
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« Reply #382 on: August 15, 2022, 02:00:55 PM »

Liberals bring back popular figure from the EP.

The Liberal MEP Søren Gade will run for parliament in the upcoming general election. He says he expects to run in either Western or Southern Jutland. Gade is among the most popular figures in Danish politics. He was a MP from 2001-2010 and Minister of Defence 2004-2010. He then had a term as CEO of the Danish Agriculture and Food Council. He then ran for parliament again in 2015, where he received the fifth highest amount of personal votes in the country, and became parliamentary group leader for the Liberals. In 2019, he ran for the European Parliament and received 201 696 personal votes, the second highest tally. He will very likely be towards the top of the personal vote tally again. He has largely been seen as near the Støjberg wing of the party, so will likely be seen as a key figure in stopping the tide towards her new party.
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Jens
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« Reply #383 on: August 16, 2022, 04:09:42 AM »

Pape wants to be PM

Today the Conservative leader Søren Pape announced that he aims to become PM after the upcoming general election. As expected, he said the he aims to form a "blue" government, and that he believes the blue PM candidate supported by the most seats should become PM if there's a blue majority. Polls in recent days have shown that voters support Pape as PM over Ellemann, both among all voters and among the Blue voters only.
It is going to be interesting. Yesterdays Voxmeter poll showed a tied race between Venstre and Konservative, both at 24 mandates and Moderaterne (4) with the decisive mandates... And 7 right and centre right parties in parliament.

Voxmeter 15/8-22
A: 43 M
B: 11 M
C: 24 M
D: 10 M
F: 15 M
G: 0 M
I: 8 M
K: 0 M
M: 4 M
O: 4 M
Q: 0 M
V: 24 M
Æ: 17 M
Ø: 15 M
Å: 0 M
ABFØ: 84 M -7
CDIOVÆ: 87 M + 8

GQÅ combined at 0,8 % K at 1,0 %
https://voxmeter.dk/meningsmalinger/
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FRANCIS BACON-SHAKESPEARE
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« Reply #384 on: August 17, 2022, 10:50:15 AM »

What are DF doing to try and distinguish themselves from Støjberg and stay above 2%?
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Diouf
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« Reply #385 on: August 17, 2022, 12:47:41 PM »

A flurry of news each day now as all the parties are gearing up for the election.

Denmark Democrats announced their first 30 parliamentary candidates. The most notable names are all the ex-DPP MPs. 7 current MPs have joined Støjberg's party plus two other known DPP names, ex-MP Marlene Harpsøe and former DPP political consultant Susie Jessen. So the only two ex-DPP MPs not to end up with Støjberg is the pro-Russian Marie Krarup, and Liselotte Blixt who will not run again. There is also a lot of of former Liberals among the candidates, including 5 councillors. None of them really notable, although Charlotte Munch was the lead candidate for Liberals in Hvidovre in the recent local elections, but not a place where the Liberals are a big party. Also one Conservative ex-councillor among the names.

Denmark Democrats also made a new policy proposal. The party wants to increase parental leave with nine weeks. This should be paid for by reducing the development aid. This comes after a fairly unpopular deal made between the Red Bloc parties + the Liberals about how to implement the EU parental leave directive. The deal increased the amount of earmarked paternal leave from 2 to 11 weeks, while reducing the earmarked maternal leave from 14 to 11 weeks, and the shared leave from 32 to 26 weeks. So by increasing the shared leave with nine weeks, the mother will be able to have the same amount of leave as previously if the mother uses all the shared leave weeks.

The government has proposed a cap on rent increases for two years, so the rent can only be raised by max 4 % a year, instead of the 8-9% possible currently due to the high inflation. The government also proposed removing the age limit for legally changing your gender. Currently the age limit is 18 years for doing this, but the government proposes to remove that fully. Children below 15 would need parental consent though.

The Conservatives proposed a new tax plan which includes a removal of the top tax rate, lower property taxes, lower company taxes and a removal of the inheritance tax and the company generational handover tax. The proposal also includes lower fees on electricity and a higher employment deductible. This will be paid for by removing the government's new early retirement scheme, remove the last part of the efterløn early retirement scheme, cut the state broadcaster DR and the job centres. Finally the party also wants to increase productivity in the public sector, so the increased amount of sick and elderly persons can be treated without raising the public expenses.
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Diouf
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« Reply #386 on: August 17, 2022, 12:58:12 PM »

What are DF doing to try and distinguish themselves from Støjberg and stay above 2%?

Both DPP and New Right are quite a bit hampered by their year-long courting of Støjberg in public with repeated messages about how much they wanted her to join their party. Messerschmidt said he would pull his candidature as DPP leader if Støjberg wanted the job. So this makes them look a bit stupid by now criticizing her. New Right's Vermund has so far said that she "could understand if someone saw Støjberg as untrustworthy" after now becoming more Eurosceptic while she was in favour of the pro-EU side in the 2015 justice opt-in referendum. She also said Støjberg's term as Minister of Immigration only led to stop-gap measures, no real structural attempt to reduce immigration.
Messerschmidt has criticized Støjberg for not doing enough during the 2015 refugee crisis and for not wanting to leave the international conventions on refugees.
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