Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Morten Messerschmidt is running as leader of DPP in a bid with MEP Peter Kofod as deputy. The extraordinary congress in DPP is on 23 January, while Messerschmidt's EU fraud case is expected to take place in the High Court from 20 December to 24 February. The schedule could change if Messerschmidt's appeal to annul the Lower Court sentence is granted due to the expressed bias of the Lower Court judge who had liked Messerschmidt-critical posts on Facebook. Then the Lower Court case would have to run again.
Running with Kofod means that the latter can run the party if Messerschmidt gets a sentence which prevents him from doing it effectively.
However, both also say that if Inger Støjberg is willing to join DPP and run as leader, they will both withdraw their candidatures.

Among their political goals, they said they want referendums on the European Convention on Human Rights as well as one on EU membership. Also they say the party should do its utmost to join a government where there is a centre-right majority (Thulelsen Dahl was often criticized for not joining the government after the brilliant 2015 election).

Messerschmidt's sentence at the Lower Court has just been annulled due to the judge being explicitly biased in the case with FB-likes of critial Messerschmidt-posts before and after the ruling. A number of the critical posts btw written by the increasingly hysterical former Minister Søren Pind.

A significant win for Messerschmidt ahead of the DPP congress in January. The case will then have to go in front of the Lower Court again, which means the case, which started back in October 2015 with the EP investigations, will go on for many more months. He can hardly expect to get a more DPP-friendly judge the next time, but there are other aspects which might help him. While he will probably again face some sentence for a fake hotel bill, there should be a significant chance of the other part of the sentence being milder/not repeated. Since then, a sound file from the DPP congress emerged where Messerschmidt can be heard talking about the EU seminar the previous day. This could undermine the sentence from the original Lower Court sentence that there really was no EU seminar, which was explicitly based on the witness statements, mostly from his internal opponent, DPP parliamentary group leader Peter Skaarup.

[Diouf]

The Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen said she would not back another one-party government after the next election. She said the current government has shown an unprecedented power arrogance and implemented an unacceptable amount of top-down control of the government bureaucracy by virtue of no-one opposing the PM as all ministers are from the same party. She said a new government should be formed across the political centre, so likely some combination of the Social Democrats (+ maybe SPP), Social Liberals and then at least one of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, Liberal Alliance or Conservatives. I'm guessing that in practice, she would also accept just another Social Democrat-Social Liberal government, but unless such a government is based on at least one centre-right party as support party, the rhetoric will ring quite hollow.

Tonight the deadline to stand as candidate for DPP leader runs out, and it doesn't look like we will get more than the current 4 candidates. Inger Støjberg today said that she is not running as DPP leader (she hasn't even joined the party), but said she looked forward to becoming a part of parliament again, signalling that she will run again at the next election. Of the four candidates, Morten Messerschmidt seems to become a bigger and bigger favourite. 4 (+1 in himself) of the 16 MPs have announced their support for him, most noticably Financial Spokesperson René Christensen. And today Messerschmidt announced that when handing in his candidature, he didn't just hand in the necessary 15 delegate signatures, he handed in 400 delegate signatures which is around half of all the expected delegates (I don't believe the exact figure is known yet). That seems like an attempt to show so much strength that the leadership election is basically over already, and the others will not even put up a fight, but that hasn't happened yet. Departing leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl has clearly signalled his opposition to Messerschmidt by publicly attacking the proposed idea of a ticket with Messerschmidt + Kofod, and he said that the Messerschmidt EU fraud case was thé defining moment which started the party's downward turn. Martin Henriksen has also challenged Messerschmidt to a number of public duels, which Messerschmidt has so far rejected. Henriksen has the backing of one MP, Bent Bøgsted, while none have supported Merete Dea Larsen or Erik Høgh-Sørensen. None of the really big players in the parliamentary group have declared yet, but Pia Kjærsgaard is seen as a certain Messerschmidt supporter while Thulelsen Dahl and Skaarup are clearly opposed to him. Liselotte Blixt, who along with Thulelsen Dahl, Skaarup, Messerschmidt and Christensen, form the parliamentary group leadership, has said that she is disappointed that none of the candidates seem to have proposed ideas to polish the DPP's social profile, instead Messerschmidt in particular has talked about becoming a more stable part of the Blue bloc (i.e. less opposition to Blue economic policies). Of the most significant policy proposals so far, Messerschmidt has mentioned "3-strikes = life time penalty" for gang-related crimes, while Henriksen has proposed changing the Constitution so only Danish citizens can get any social benefits.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Liselotte Blixt, who along with Thulelsen Dahl, Skaarup, Messerschmidt and Christensen, form the parliamentary group leadership, has said that she is disappointed that none of the candidates seem to have proposed ideas to polish the DPP's social profile, instead Messerschmidt in particular has talked about becoming a more stable part of the Blue bloc (i.e. less opposition to Blue economic policies).

So, basically competing with NB?

[Diouf]

Liselotte Blixt, who along with Thulelsen Dahl, Skaarup, Messerschmidt and Christensen, form the parliamentary group leadership, has said that she is disappointed that none of the candidates seem to have proposed ideas to polish the DPP's social profile, instead Messerschmidt in particular has talked about becoming a more stable part of the Blue bloc (i.e. less opposition to Blue economic policies).

So, basically competing with NB?

There will be a hard competition with NB no matter what for the voters with immigration as the main topic. On economy, New Right has the most right-wing policies, and I don't see DPP getting near that. It's more that the DPP under Messerschmidt could be more willing to make Blue Bloc deals where Liberal Alliance and New Right get some of their preferred tax policies (e.g. cutting the top tax rate) in exchange for DPP wishes. A deal Thulelsen Dahl was famously unwilling to make when Løkke was PM, and directly asked about that Messerschmidt said "I'm more pragmatic". And just generally less direct cooperation with the Social Democrats, which the party did a number of times during the latest Løkke government.

[Diouf]

Tonight the deadline to stand as candidate for DPP leader runs out, and it doesn't look like we will get more than the current 4 candidates. Inger Støjberg today said that she is not running as DPP leader (she hasn't even joined the party), but said she looked forward to becoming a part of parliament again, signalling that she will run again at the next election.

Tonight, the tabloid Ekstra Bladet writes that Støjberg is working to create a new party. The article says her hope is to draw in profiles from DPP and the Liberals. Kristian Thulelsen Dahl and Peter Skaarup from the former is mentioned, while the Liberal MEP Søren Gade is also brought up.
Let's see if other sources can corroborate the story, and give more details of how far the proces actually is. The things mentioned in the article sounds like the very best case scenario, so could just be the dreams of those close to her. One can just look at how Løkke hasn't been able to attract any other politicians yet (although we should perhaps wait and see when the Moderates is (soon?) officially made eligible). Although Støjberg probably has a better personal relationship with many colleagues compared to Løkke who, partially due to his job of course, has probably burned more bridges with people.

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/stoejberg-arbejder-paa-nyt-parti/9073265

[DavidB.]

Dear God, what niche would yet another party fill? How would a Støjberg party even differ from NB?

The entire Støjberg case remains absolutely scandalous (how the hell does a democratic country just "fire" an MP elected by the people and send her to jail for things she did as a minister that a parliamentary majority approved of at the time) and I sincerely wonder why there hasn't been more attention for it throughout Europe - probably because it doesn't fit the narrative of Denmark as anti-immigration nation.

[JimJamUK]

The Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen said she would not back another one-party government after the next election. She said the current government has shown an unprecedented power arrogance and implemented an unacceptable amount of top-down control of the government bureaucracy by virtue of no-one opposing the PM as all ministers are from the same party. She said a new government should be formed across the political centre, so likely some combination of the Social Democrats (+ maybe SPP), Social Liberals and then at least one of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, Liberal Alliance or Conservatives. I'm guessing that in practice, she would also accept just another Social Democrat-Social Liberal government, but unless such a government is based on at least one centre-right party as support party, the rhetoric will ring quite hollow.

Is this seen more as an uncrossable red line or empty rhetoric to make the party seem moderate and relevant? The current government has been able to cut the Social Liberals out of many key policy agreements so it’s understandable they want one where they would have more influence and policy achievements, but of course the Social Democrats would presumably want to protect the status quo which has worked well for them. SPP and EL will also prefer the current government to the 2011-2015 one, so presumably they aren’t enthused by this proposal either.

[Diouf]

Dear God, what niche would yet another party fill? How would a Støjberg party even differ from NB?

The entire Støjberg case remains absolutely scandalous (how the hell does a democratic country just "fire" an MP elected by the people and send her to jail for things she did as a minister that a parliamentary majority approved of at the time) and I sincerely wonder why there hasn't been more attention for it throughout Europe - probably because it doesn't fit the narrative of Denmark as anti-immigration nation.

Well, I think I remember someone posting in the Danish thread years ago, that we could end up with a sort of Belgian system with doubling of parties. Just instead of the language barrier, it could be the barrier of tough immigration politics. That was back when it was rumoured that there would be a socialist anti-immigration party running, which didn't end up happening. But I think you could still use that mindset. So if you just look at economy, we have a centre-leftish party and a far right party on the anti-immigration side. Støjberg's party would then take the centre-right position where there would be some space.

In reality, people might not look that closely at all of a party's policies and go partly by the vibe and the personalities. While Messerschmidt and Vermund are really able and popular leaders, I would imagine that if Støjberg really gathered Gade, Thulelsen Dahl, Skaarup etc., that would be the biggest player, especially because they can appeal to a wider audience. I would think a Støjberg party would be closer to the most Eurosceptic parts of the Liberals + the Moderate DPP wing than the New Right. Støjberg still sees herself as the True Liberal. So the general economic policies would be fairly standard Liberal, with the differences being a stronger support for the agricultural sector + rural areas, less focus on climate change, more Eurosceptic (but not wanting to leave the EU, at least unless Britain ends up with some superamazing deal that could be copied) and very critical of the lack of sovereignty on the immigration question (ECHR, UN conventions etc). So still less revolutionary than New Right's wish to leave EU, significantly cut down the public sector and lower taxes greatly.

And yes of course fully agree with your point about the anti-democratic nature of being able to vote out another MP. Kudos to MP Rosa Lund from the Red-Green Alliance who actually argued against this action due to it being anti-democratic, in the same way as one of its constituent parties, the Left Socialists did back in 1983 when Progress Party leader Mogens Glistrup was voted out. But of course the leftist elite isn't very tolerant of dissent, so after Lund had been burned at the Twitter stake for 24 hours, she and the party withdrew its objection and voted along with expelling Støjberg as a MP.

[Diouf]

The Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen said she would not back another one-party government after the next election. She said the current government has shown an unprecedented power arrogance and implemented an unacceptable amount of top-down control of the government bureaucracy by virtue of no-one opposing the PM as all ministers are from the same party. She said a new government should be formed across the political centre, so likely some combination of the Social Democrats (+ maybe SPP), Social Liberals and then at least one of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, Liberal Alliance or Conservatives. I'm guessing that in practice, she would also accept just another Social Democrat-Social Liberal government, but unless such a government is based on at least one centre-right party as support party, the rhetoric will ring quite hollow.

Is this seen more as an uncrossable red line or empty rhetoric to make the party seem moderate and relevant? The current government has been able to cut the Social Liberals out of many key policy agreements so it’s understandable they want one where they would have more influence and policy achievements, but of course the Social Democrats would presumably want to protect the status quo which has worked well for them. SPP and EL will also prefer the current government to the 2011-2015 one, so presumably they aren’t enthused by this proposal either.

I think many see it as the party decisively choosing to go for the sensible, centrist government party route instead of the more woke, pro-immigration protest party route (which would probably give more votes). Carsten Nielsen explicitly acknowledges that no matter what, it will be difficult for the party to change Danish immigration policies very much. And as you point out, if the Social Liberals follow through on this route and the Social Democrats, as one would expect, really doesn't want the Social Liberals in their government, then there could be a massive stand-off between the two parties after an election if the Social Liberals has the decisive seats. The left wing, incl. Social Democrats, will try to say that it's a clear choice. You must quickly decide between Red and Blue Bloc and do you Social Liberals really wanna join a majority with DPP and New Right? While the Social Liberal argument will be that there are plenty of mainstream seats, when withdrawing Red-Green, DPP and New Right seats, so they want to build a broad centrist government and have the patience to reject any Bloc government until mainstream parties worth at least 90 seats come together across the middle.
 
And yes, the Red-Green Alliance is very unhappy, and has so far been clearly most vocal in their attacks on the Social Liberals, while Social Democrats have kept their powder dry. Just some qoutes from prominent Red-Green politicians on Twitter.
Pernille Skipper: "Now we know what it's all about for the Social Liberals: Getting to drive in a Minister's Car. Immigration policy, climate policy, welfare policy does not matter. They can renege on anything for fancy titles."
Mai Villadsen: "We used to stand side-by-side with the Social Liberals, fighting for a more humane and fair immigration policy. Now they are willing to vote for inhuman policies - in exchange for Minister Cars. A sad day in Danish Politics"

[JimJamUK]

I think many see it as the party decisively choosing to go for the sensible, centrist government party route instead of the more woke, pro-immigration protest party route (which would probably give more votes). Carsten Nielsen explicitly acknowledges that no matter what, it will be difficult for the party to change Danish immigration policies very much. And as you point out, if the Social Liberals follow through on this route and the Social Democrats, as one would expect, really doesn't want the Social Liberals in their government, then there could be a massive stand-off between the two parties after an election if the Social Liberals has the decisive seats. The left wing, incl. Social Democrats, will try to say that it's a clear choice. You must quickly decide between Red and Blue Bloc and do you Social Liberals really wanna join a majority with DPP and New Right? While the Social Liberal argument will be that there are plenty of mainstream seats, when withdrawing Red-Green, DPP and New Right seats, so they want to build a broad centrist government and have the patience to reject any Bloc government until mainstream parties worth at least 90 seats come together across the middle.

It seems impossible that the Social Liberals would join a government reliant on hardline anti immigration parties, and even forming a government with the ‘mainstream’ of the Blue Bloc looks like something their voters would not be remotely happy about (in addition to not really being a centrist government, it’s not a certainty they’d want to be in government with the Social Liberals, and it probably wouldn’t have a majority anyways). Therefore, the Social Liberals don’t seem to realistically be able to threaten the left of centre parties with an alternative government, but rather just stop any government being formed. In that case, the left can wait it out and claim the Social Liberals should be responsible and support the continuation of the current government rather than prolong a messy cross bloc negotiation, and threaten another election where the Social Liberals would be squeezed if they don’t.

Would you say this is a fair analysis or have the Social Liberals fallen out with the left enough that they would be willing to go fully right or at least stand their ground and never allow a left only government regardless of how long it takes?

[Diouf]

It seems impossible that the Social Liberals would join a government reliant on hardline anti immigration parties, and even forming a government with the ‘mainstream’ of the Blue Bloc looks like something their voters would not be remotely happy about (in addition to not really being a centrist government, it’s not a certainty they’d want to be in government with the Social Liberals, and it probably wouldn’t have a majority anyways). Therefore, the Social Liberals don’t seem to realistically be able to threaten the left of centre parties with an alternative government, but rather just stop any government being formed. In that case, the left can wait it out and claim the Social Liberals should be responsible and support the continuation of the current government rather than prolong a messy cross bloc negotiation, and threaten another election where the Social Liberals would be squeezed if they don’t.

Would you say this is a fair analysis or have the Social Liberals fallen out with the left enough that they would be willing to go fully right or at least stand their ground and never allow a left only government regardless of how long it takes?

Well, as we both write it will be a standoff between mainly the Social Democrats and Social Liberals. How strong a pressure either of them would face to stand down will depend on many things in the context.
How will the Social Liberals look after an election, in terms of voters, MPs? My standard assumption will be that they are cut down in size, and especially those voters who wants certainty for a left-wing government will leave during an election campaign or already before, as they are attacked for not ensuring a pure left-wing government. Will that be perceived as a loss for this strategy and see the party forced to crawl back on their knees to the left wing party, or will it strengthen their resolve and see them fear less the loss of leftwing voters by standing strong?
Is the Social Liberals the only centrist party, or do Christian Democrats and/or Moderates make it into parliament as well, creating a strong centrist bloc?
How does the left wing parties look? Do they all get good election results or will there be a strong swing towards the right? Will it only be Social Democrats, SPP and Red-Green Alliance, or will a more extreme party like Independent Greens or the Vegan Party get in, which could make the Social Democrats less willing to to rely only on the left.
How does the right wing parties look? Will the Liberals get smashed to the degree that a weakened Ellemann is willing to consider being a minor partner in a Social Democrat-led government?
What is the political context? Are there any major crises (financial, immigration, foreign policy etc.) which creates a demand for a stable government, and who does that demand hit the hardest?

So in conclusion, I think there are too many uncertainties at all fronts currently to predict with much certainty how such a possible standoff would end after an election. The Social Democrats do have the advantage that the current government is a Social Democrat minority government, and even if a vote of no-confidence gets a majority, it will still be the caretaker government until another government is ready. So this could eventually give way to talking points about how bad can they really find a Social Democrat minority government, when it seems to have worked fine for X months as a caretaker government. In theory, the Social Liberals could try to remove them of that advantage by getting an agreement with the Blue parties to install an independent caretaker government while negotiations are ongoing, but that might be too much of a clever TV move to become reality

[Diouf]

No signal of the big coming together behind Messerschmidt yet. Today MP Marie Krarup said that "unfortunately" she cannot support him as leader. She says he has weaknesses as a leader, shown by the fiascos of his leadership of the EP delegations he led, in both terms a DPP MEP colleague left the group largely due to personal disagreements with him. She also said he let down the party by not withdrawing as DPP deputy leader after getting his sentence in the Lower Court.
She said that while she has disagreements with Martin Henriksen, he is "a man you can trust, and who doesn't claim to be anything more than what he is".
Ex-MP Jeppe Jakobsen has left the party as he doesn't trust any of the leadership candidates. Messerschmidt has "had his hands in the money jar" so isn't a worthy leader. Also he is a hypocrite who demands absolute loyalty towards his own person, but has done nothing but attacking the current leader from behind. Martin Henriksen is too far from his own line politically, "we shouldn't enter a arms race with NB to say things the roughest possible way or change the constitution". Erik Høgh-Sørensen represents the absolute fringe of the party, and Merete Dea Larsen doesn't have the personal qualities to lead such a big organisation.
Pia Kjærsgaard has, as expected, endorsed Messerschmidt and again attacked Martin Henriksen. Henriksen now says that there will be no room for either of them in the leadership of the party if he wins.

In other news, the leader of the Defence Intelligence Service has been jailed and charged with leaking highly classified information. I guess there could be some political effects of such a scandal.

[Diouf]

The Vegan Party has gotten a rare mention as the party today threw out co-founder and ex-leader Henrik Vindfeldt. The party says he's thrown out due to offensive behaviour (non-sexual) towards party members. Their political spokesperson Michael Monberg says: "Henrik is a hard worker. But we can no longer turn the blind eye to the way he treats his colleagues. It tears our organisation apart".
Vindfeldt himself rejects the accusation, and says that he wanted offensive behaviour by another in the party leadership investigated, but due to nepotism it didn't happen. Vindfeldt believes his exclusion is due to political differences: "There are two wings in the party. I belong to the moderate wing, which likes to talk policy proposals, and wants to lay the foundation for an agrictultural reform. The other wing wants to focus on shaming the lifestyle of meat eaters. This political difference has been evident for some time, and has now turned into a nasty showdown".

[JimJamUK]

If the political divisions are true, then its very hard to see the Vegan's making the 2% next election (not that they had much chance anyways). The number of hardcore animals rights/vegan activists is a tiny share of the population, so any animal rights party needs to be able to appeal a wider audience of animal lovers who like tougher animal welfare standards, sign e-petitions against x animal cruelty practice etc, and want to vote for a party that will deliver these policies and generally embody a compassionate ethos towards animals.

[Diouf]

The ante keeps getting upped in DPP, where MP Marie Krarup said yesterday that "if Morten Messerschmidt becomes leader, there is a good chance that the part of the parliamentary group, which doesn't find that a good idea, will break out and form a new party". Another Messerschmidt-opponent in the parliamentary group, Bent Bøgsted, said he wouldn't rule out leaving the party and that he was certain that a majority of the group does not support Messerschmidt's project.

Lars Løkke has teased that the Moderates could officially become an eligible party on the 18 January, which would be exactly one year after the first meeting in his "political meeting place", which has worked at the foundation of the new party.

[Diouf]

Each day as we inch towards the extraordinary congress on 23 January, there seems to be a new dramatic development in the DPP leadership race.
Today Ekstra Bladet revealed an audio file from an internal DPP parliamentary group meeting from october 2019. In the audio file, Messerschmidt strongly criticizes Pernille Vermund and ends off with calling her "a first class mean b*tch". Pia Kjærsgaard loudly backs him. Messerschmidt then goes on to say that "if anyone is willing to gamble all of the Blue Bloc unity for a small profit for oneself, then it's that shrew from Helsingør". Kjærsgaard later calls her "a snake".
Kijærsgaard later in the audio file goes off about another New Right MP, Mette Thiesen, calling her as thick as two short planks.
https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/messerschmidt-amok-i-lydfil-vermund-er-en-led-kaelling/9080534

Lars Løkke gave an interview to Weekendavisen where he revealed parts of the Moderates' political program. He wants to introduce a new "citizen's duty" of six months for all youngsters. Youngsters will live together and carry out tasks, this could be within environmental protection, cultural activities, civil society organisations etc. as well as a more standard conscription in the army. He argues it's necessary to ensure unity and cohesion by mixing people from different layers of society, so people get an understanding of others' way of life. The party also wants to convert parts of the study grant to a loan (with a deduction once you graduate to ensure more students, particularly foreign ones, stay and work in Denmark). They have a comprehensive proposal for a new tax reform: The point at which you start paying the top tax rate will be raised, a new top-top tax rate for the very high earners, lower taxes on entrepreunership, stocks and investments, a CO2 tax and a higher job deduction. Løkke says he will be more "pragmatic" on immigration policy; he attacks the government for being to slow to bring home Danish citizens (children of ISIS terrorists) from camps in Syria plus wants more foreign labour. He mirrors the recent Social Liberal criticism of the Mette Frederiksen government as too self-willed and patronizing. He won't point towards a specific PM candidate, but says that he wants a majority government with a long-term reform programme.
https://www.weekendavisen.dk/2022-2/samfund/et-halvt-aar-for-danmark

Another big Liberal name leaves their parliamentary group. Karsten Lauritzen, who has been a MP for 15 years, leaves parliament to become leader of the transport section in the Confederation of Danish Industry. Lauritzen received 18 335 personal votes in Northern Jutland in 2019, the 14th highest of all. So now 4 of the 6 highest Liberal vote getters in 2019 have all left the parliamentary group. Lauritzen had a high position as parliamentary group leader, and was a fairly popular Minister of Taxation from 2015-2019. He has been a quite loyal support of Ellemann's project, so another blow for the Liberal leader's ambition to build a strong team around him.

In other news, the leader of the Defence Intelligence Service has been jailed and charged with leaking highly classified information. I guess there could be some political effects of such a scandal.

This one keeps developing. Today it was made public that the police also wants to charge MP, and former Minister of Defence, Claus Hjort Frederiksen with the same crime. It requires parliament to lift his immunity.

[JimJamUK]

Lars Løkke gave an interview to Weekendavisen where he revealed parts of the Moderates' political program. He wants to introduce a new "citizen's duty" of six months for all youngsters. Youngsters will live together and carry out tasks, this could be within environmental protection, cultural activities, civil society organisations etc. as well as a more standard conscription in the army. He argues it's necessary to ensure unity and cohesion by mixing people from different layers of society, so people get an understanding of others' way of life. The party also wants to convert parts of the study grant to a loan (with a deduction once you graduate to ensure more students, particularly foreign ones, stay and work in Denmark). They have a comprehensive proposal for a new tax reform: The point at which you start paying the top tax rate will be raised, a new top-top tax rate for the very high earners, lower taxes on entrepreunership, stocks and investments, a CO2 tax and a higher job deduction. Løkke says he will be more "pragmatic" on immigration policy; he attacks the government for being to slow to bring home Danish citizens (children of ISIS terrorists) from camps in Syria plus wants more foreign labour. He mirrors the recent Social Liberal criticism of the Mette Frederiksen government as too self-willed and patronizing. He won't point towards a specific PM candidate, but says that he wants a majority government with a long-term reform programme.

That’s a real hodge podge of policies. Lower taxes for the highest earners but higher taxes for the very highest earners stands out as a tough sell. I suppose it can be labelled technocratic/non-ideological pragmatism, but it doesn’t stand out as a platform that would attract a lot of interest from voters (basically knock off centre right social liberalism for which there are multiple alternatives and many more who have failed) so the party will be relying on Lokke’s popularity to sell it. Is there an expectation that the proper launch of the party will see a substantial and sustained polling increase, because so far the limited polling doesn’t look great?

[Diouf]

Is there an expectation that the proper launch of the party will see a substantial and sustained polling increase, because so far the limited polling doesn’t look great?

Most commentators sound fairly certain that he will get in, but not with a bang. So I think an average guess might be around 3%. Even if the Moderates should fall just below 2% nationally, there is an expectation that he will at least win a constituency seat and draw a MP or three with him into parliament that way (in 2019, he personally received 7.8% of all votes in the Zealand constituency, which had a threshold around 4% for gaining a constituency seat)
Whether that's a substantial and sustained polling increase, depends somewhat on which polls you look at. YouGov already includes the party in the polls and has had it at around 4%, while Gallup which does the same have them down at around the 2% threshold. Voxmeter, who takes up a lot of the polling space with their weekly polls, does only include eligible parties, and after a short rise for "others", it has now been only at around 1% recently.

When I see what journalists and commentators write/say around Løkke and the party, there are two potentially negative narratives for Løkke flowing. One is that he can't attract any other prominent candidates, and that the party is basically only a "Løkke list". So if there aren't a couple of big names presented fairly soon, that is an angle that will increase. The other is that the journalists are simply annoyed about the protracted process. Løkke has used a drip drop model, where he has slowly given a tiny piece of information or hint, and then waited a week or two before another tiny bit etc. So they feel he is trying to gain an "unfair" amount of media attention, hoping for a new headline each week. So to me, it seems like a good amount of media are almost now deliberately undercovering him. Example of that sentiment in a tweet like this from the editor of a big politics website: "The Moderates will (perhaps) launch January 18, @larsloekke informs in a video on Facebook. Perhaps telling that the news has not really spread, and it's now 15 hours since it was posted. The interest in the many intermediate steps have run out #dkpol". We will see how they will cover him, once it does becomes an official party, but is perhaps worrying that so many media already seem to focus on not giving him "too much" airspace. Maybe the problem will not be as big due to the big reach of his social media accounts.

[Diouf]

The least likely winner of the DPP leadership race, Erik Høgh-Sørensen, has withdrawn from the race. He says that Messerschmidt does not have the necessary qualities to lead the party, and hopes that the two remaining non-Messerschmidt candidates will now form a united, strong leadership team. Two additional MPs revealed their preferences, with Liselotte Blixt going for Merete Dea Larsen and Hans Kristian Skibby endorsing Martin Henriksen. So the tally is now 5+himself for Messerschmidt, 3 for Henriksen, 1 for Dea Larsen with 6 who haven't announced. More of those endorsing a non-Messerschmidt candidate has publicly stated their doubts about remaining in the party under his leadership. Thulesen Dahl has covid so won't be present at the extraordinary congress. Bizarrely, it sounds like it won't be possible to vote remotely, so he apparently won't be able to vote for his predecessor.

It seems like we will still have to wait some months for the Moderates being officially registrered as a party, and therefore test their support in all polls. It sounds like it won't officially register as an eligible party for the next general election yet. Instead they will wait to do that until their foundational party congress on 5 June (unless an early election is called before then).
They have announced the party logo and created a new home page. And policy-wise Løkke has presented policy proposals in 9 areas, most which are mentioned previously in the Weekendavisen interview. Of additional measures, the party wants a new benefit (the possibility to choose a lower cash benefit without any job centre demands for persons out of employment for years), a more de-centralized public sector with more independent institutions (e.g. powerful school boards) and abolishing the Regions and create a new structure to run the health care service. The party opposes the government's proposed "welfare law" with automatic increases in welfare spending as the demographic changes, this would eat up the state funds and make it almost impossible to find the proper funds for green policies. There is also what seems like a quite controversial proposal that there should be a new agreement on labour market pensions, so workers not only save up for their retirement benefits but also save up to pay for some of their elderly care. Finally to attract foreign labour, anyone from an OECD-country with a contract worth at least the collective agreement minimum wage can come freely. For anyone else, the limit one must earn to get a work permit should be drastically lowered from 37.000 kr. a month to 27.000 kr. a month.

https://moderaterne.dk/politik/

[Diouf]

Christian Democrat ace not running again

In the 2019 general election, the Christian Democrats were 200 votes from winning a constituency seat in Western Jutland which would have seen the party enter parliament with 3/4 MPs. That succes was in large part due to the popularity of Kristian Andersen, who after 20 years as head of a Christian continuation school, now leads the family section of the Danish Lutheran Mission. Andersen received 10 890 personal votes, more than half of the 17 016 votes the party received in the constituency. In the 2021 local elections, he kept building on his popularity in the Ringkøbing-Skjern municipality, where he led the party to 19.5% of the votes and 3 494 personal votes, the highest of all. A Liberal - Social Democrat alliance again kept him away from the mayor's office though.

In 2019, his great performance also affected the Liberals, who for the first time since 1988 didn't get a MP elected in Ringkøbing. The Liberals now have a more well-known candidate, Mads Fuglede, who has moved to the area with his family. So even if the Liberals lose 1/2 of their current five seats in the constituency, there should be a good chance of them getting a candidate from the area elected.

Kristian Andersen said he has made the decision to focus on his job and role in local politics, but it could also be a sign that he is less supportive of the party's new profile, where the abortion and christian values have been moderated and less emphasized, instead focusing on branding itself as a constructive, green, centrist force on the borgerlige side of politics. I doubt the party has another candidate who could draw in so much local support. So this probably makes it less likely that the party could take the backdoor into parliament via a regional constituency MP instead of hitting 2% nationally.
Party leader Isabella Arendt has moved from the Eastern Jutland constituency to Copenhagen, partly because that's where she lives, but also to increase the party's support in a weak area with many voters (they only won 0.7% there in 2019). I have yet to see where the party's sole MP, Jens Rohde will run. In 2019, he ran for the Social Liberals in Copenhagen, but he surely won't run there again. It would have been obvious for him to take over the Eastern Jutland constituency, but without Andersen running, there is a chance he could opt for Western Jutland (where he lives in Viborg). In a best case for the party, they can reduce their losses in the western part of the constituency and Rohde give them enough support in the eastern part of the constituency to get them across the finish line anyway.

[Diouf]

Government agrees labour market deal with "Boomer"-reform of unemployment benefits



Today the government agreed a labour market reform package with DPP, SPP, Social Liberals and Christian Democrats. The headline of the deal is an agreement to change the balance of the unemployment benefit system. The parties agreed to cut the level and the lenght of the benefits for graduates, while the level of benefits is raised in the first three months for persons who have worked two of the last three years. There is a slight alleviation for persons in education as they raise the amount you can earn while studying without getting your student grant reduced. The parties raise the labour union deduction while you can now only get a deduction for a private unemployment benefit scheme if you are also part of a unemployment fund which forms the backbone of the public system.
The parties also agreed to raise the maximum amount you can get in job deduction, lowering the household energy tariff and removing the household pension reduction. This meant that if one person worked and earned a fine salary, there would be a reduction in their partner's pension, both retirement and early retirement pensions. Also retired persons will be able to work a bit more without getting their pension reduced. Finally, the parties wants to change some of the business support schemes in a more green direction + removing some to raise investments in welfare educations + higher educations.

The government also wanted to attract more foreign labour due to the lack of workers. However, DPP opposed this being a part of the deal. Instead, the government agreed with SPP, Social Liberals and Christian Democrats to make a law proposal which will be presented to parliament, and they then bet that some of the Blue parties will vote for in the chamber, as this is something Liberals, Liberal Alliance and Conservatives have often demanded. The law proposal will for two years reduce the limit one must earn to get a work permit from 37 000 DKK to 31 000 DKK.

[Diouf]

So today is the big day in DPP, where a new leader will be elected. Two additional MPs chose sides, so the final tally is 5 (+1) supporting Messerschmidt, 4 supporting Henriksen and 2 supporting Dea Larsen. Of the remaining 4 MPs, it seems certain that Thulelsen Dahl, his brother + Skaarup are opposed to Messerschmidt.
Thulelsen Dahl has been in a direct confrontation with predecessor and co-founder Pia Kjærsgaard, saying that it's a bad idea with her stated plans to re-enter the leadership after a Messerschmidt victory, while Kjærsgaard has blamed Thulelsen Dahl for letting the leadership contest run off the rails with MPs from the anti-Messerschmidt wings threatening to leave the party.

The extraordinary party congress starts at 13.00 (CET), the candidate speeches start at 13.45, and then the voting starts at 14.30. If no one gets a majority of the delegates in the first round of voting, the two top candidates continue to a decisive vote. You should be able to follow in the usual places, e.g. at dr.dk + tv2.dk

[Diouf]

Morten Messerschmidt wins the leadership contest in the first round.
He received 499 delegate votes (60.5%), while Martin Henriksen got 219 votes (26.5%) and Merete Dea Larsen received 107 votes (13.0%). A comfortable win for Messerschmidt, who has for long been the heir apparent in the party. The year-long fraud case, and the resulting court case against him, which will now run again at the Lower Court, has damaged him, but still a significant win.
Now we will see in the coming days and weeks how the anti-Messerschmidt wing reacts, and whether we will get significant defections from the parliamentary group, where a majority is currently opposed to him.

[JimJamUK]

It seems certain that Thulelsen Dahl, his brother + Skaarup are opposed to Messerschmidt.
Thulelsen Dahl has been in a direct confrontation with predecessor and co-founder Pia Kjærsgaard, saying that it's a bad idea with her stated plans to re-enter the leadership after a Messerschmidt victory, while Kjærsgaard has blamed Thulelsen Dahl for letting the leadership contest run off the rails with MPs from the anti-Messerschmidt wings threatening to leave the party.

Kjaersgaard has insinuated that they knew more about Messerschmidt's EU fraud case than they are letting on, not exactly a sign of things being deescalated.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2022-01-23-pia-k-sender-alvorlig-anklage-mod-thulesen-dahl

[ingemann]

Dear God, what niche would yet another party fill? How would a Støjberg party even differ from NB?

The entire Støjberg case remains absolutely scandalous (how the hell does a democratic country just "fire" an MP elected by the people and send her to jail for things she did as a minister that a parliamentary majority approved of at the time) and I sincerely wonder why there hasn't been more attention for it throughout Europe - probably because it doesn't fit the narrative of Denmark as anti-immigration nation.

A parliamentary majority doesn’t give her a right to break the law, and if you break the law you sometimes end up in prison and if a MP end up in prison the Danish parliament declare that person unfit to sit in parliament.

There are problems with the Danish rules on unfitness to sit in parliament, but that Støjberg after being impeached and convicted is forced to leave parliament is not one of them.

Of course you could raise the question about impeachment in Denmark, it’s a tool which is rarely used and in this case was mainly used because Støjberg kept openly and obviously lying to parliament, if she at any point had said “oops that was a mistake” or if she had been less obviously lying, she would likely not have been impeached.