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January 21, 2021, 07:19:08 AM

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Diouf
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« Reply #125 on: November 18, 2020, 01:21:47 PM »

Mogens Jensen resigns after mink debacle



Mogens Jensen, Minister for Food, Fishery, Equality & Minister for Nordic Cooperation, today resigned after his handling of the order to kill all mink. The support parties no longer had confidence in him after a report from his own Ministry showed that Jensen already received information in mid-September about the lack of a legal basis for an order to kill all mink. The same information was mentioned in a government document for a 1 October meeting with six key ministers, but the aspect does not seem to have been discussed at the meeting. There is also severe criticism of the head of the ministry, who was clearly informed about the illegality of the order on the day the order had been made, but only told the minister three days later.

Blue Bloc claims the rot goes to the top and want the whole government to resign. However, the support parties are satisfied with Jensen resigning. Now the question is how big an investigation the support parties will want into the process; the Blue Bloc parties are of going for the most exhaustive option possible.

On Monday, the Red Bloc parties agreed on a law which will make the killing of all mink legal. There are still negotiations on-going about the financial support for mink farms and associated businesses.
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Diouf
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« Reply #126 on: November 19, 2020, 02:41:52 PM »

Mini-reshuffle announced to replace Mogens Jensen



Today, Mette Frederiksen announced an expected mini-reshuffle after Mogens Jensen's resignation yesterday. Jensen's unorthodox portfolio of Food, Fishery, Equality & Nordic Cooperation is divided out between others. Peter Hummelgaard, Minister of Employment, gets the Equality add-on to his title. The ministry of Food and Environment, which has had two ministers, is split up into two different ministries. Lea Wermelin is now the sole minister in the Ministry of Environment, while Rasmus Prehn (right in the picture), hitherto Minister for Development Cooperation, becomes the new Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries. Finally, Flemming Møller Mortensen (left in the picture) is a new face in the cabinet as Minister of Development Cooperation and Nordic Cooperation. Møller Mortensen has been a MP for Northern Jutland since 2007. He was a nurse and then a charge nurse for a couple of years before entering the pharmaceutical industry. He was a salesperson at AstraZeneca and then Head of Sales at Novartis before becoming a MP.
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Diouf
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« Reply #127 on: December 04, 2020, 04:57:50 PM »

Conservative MP leaves party amid handling of sexual harassment allegations



Conservative MP Orla Østerby today decided to leave the party to become independent. He states that its due to the party's handling of the sexual harassment allegations against him. In October, Østerby had all his spokesperson roles withdrawn after allegations of sexual harassment by fellow Conservative MP Brigitte Jerkel. Østerby had already had clashed with the leadership of the party previously when he criticized another fellow Conservative MP Mette Abildgaard for her stunt of bringing her baby into the parliamentary chamber.
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« Reply #128 on: December 07, 2020, 07:47:04 AM »

Has the overtone window on immigration policy shifted since the new goverment got into power and the Virus hit ?
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Diouf
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« Reply #129 on: December 07, 2020, 04:29:53 PM »

Has the overtone window on immigration policy shifted since the new goverment got into power and the Virus hit ?

No, I don't think there have really been much change since the election. The shift was in the previous term, where the Social Democrats full-fledgedly entered the same position as the Liberals on immigration; a very tough rhetoric and the toughest policies possible which respect international conventions. Deals on immigration, police and justice will often still have the core of the Social Democrats + the Blue Bloc parties. Then the government will have to make minor concessions in negotiations; like opening for quota refugees.
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Diouf
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« Reply #130 on: December 07, 2020, 05:05:00 PM »

Majority parties agree on Budget 2021 - including several green deals



Yesterday, the government finalized an agreement with the Social Liberals, SPP, Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative on the 2021 Budget. The parties have had a significant focus on green issues in the promotion of the budget. The parties agreed to spend 888 million DKK from 2021-2024 on a big nature package with the introduction of 13 new national parks as well as a significant increase of the "untouched nature" areas. The parties also agreed a plan with the aim to get 770.000 "green cars" on the roads in 2030. It is mainly based on lower fees for the green cars, and higher fees for fossil fuel cars plus a new road toll for lorries. Also the parties will work for the possibility in EU law for a ban on fossil fuel cars in 2030. Additionally, but unrelated to the Budget, a few days ago a broad political alliance with the government, Liberals, DPP, Social Liberals, SPP and Conservatives agreed to stop oil extraction in the North Sea in 2050 at the latest, although in practice oil extraction past that date might not have been very profitable anyway.

The Budget deal also includes additional funds for elderly care, starting minimum pedagogue quotas in nurseries and kindergartens from 2024 instead of 2025, rolling back parts of the planned cuts for the state broadcaster DR, taking 500 quota refugees in 2021 and increased funding of high schools, social and health care educations and vocational educations. There is very little on funding, but it seems mostly to be based on deficit spending (either directly or via unused funds from Covid help packages) and funds from the new EU recovery facility.
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Diouf
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« Reply #131 on: December 14, 2020, 03:02:54 PM »

Critical commission report creates dilemma for two major parties



Today an investigative commission released a critical report about Inger Støjberg's handling of the seperation of under-age asylum seeker spouses in her term as Minister of Immigration. Støjberg is deputy leader of the Liberals, and one of the most well-known, popular and divisive politician in the country, particularly due to her strong views on immigration. In 2019, she received 28 420 personal votes, the 4th highest in the country. Støjberg was Minister of Immigration from 2015-2019, and the investigative commission has looked closer at her actions in February 2016. Back then she announced in a press release that all asylum seeker spouses under the age of 18 should be seperated from their over-18 spouses. However, international conventions dictate that there should be case-by-case judgment of the cases; not a blanket ban on sub-18 asylum seekers lliving with their older spouses.

The investigative commission was established shortly after the 2019 general election. The Blue Bloc parties had refused such an investigation, but the Red Bloc decided to go ahead with it after the majority changed. Today the commission concluded that Støjberg's press release in February 2016 was illegal, that she was orally warned that a blanket ban could not legally happen, that she externally and internally in the Ministry said she wanted a blanket ban, that it should have been clear for her that there was a significant risk that the relevant authorities would administrate based on her press release, and that this illegal administration happened from February to July 2016. Støjberg herself has referred to an internally approved Ministry note, which seems to accept a case-by-case judgment, as what she expected to be the basis of the authorities' administration, and that it was "political communication" when she made the clear statements on the ban in public without mentioning the case-by-case method.

Now the question is what consequence parliament will take after the critical report. The New Right and DPP has been clear in their support of Støjberg and again today cheered on her handling of the case. The non-Social Democrat left has been vocal about how serious they see the criticism of Støjberg. I believe that only the three ex-Alternative independents have already stated that Støjberg should be impeached, but it would be very surprising if not all non-Social Democrat parties in the Red Bloc ends up with that conclusion shortly. Then the question is about the remaining parties. The Conservatives and Liberal Alliance have been very quite today, which suggests that their backing of Støjberg is less certain. Both groups certainly have sections, who would very much prefer to join in DPP and New Right's choir, and the leadership of both parties are probably very aware of how popular Støjberg is among centre-right voters. On the other hand, certain members have talked strongly about the rule of law and mght be able to benefit electorally if there is a sense of scandal around the Liberals.

And then of course, it is crucial what the Social Democrats and Liberals decide to do; the two parties have 90 seats and thereby a majority together. Again several aspects are in play. One is the general issue of immigration policy, where the Social Democrats have done so much to move towards the right on immigration. Will they then risk that by impeaching Støjberg, who claim to have simply saved young innocent girls from their old forced-marriage husbands? Also the recent mink scandal seems very similar with illegal actions by at least Mogens Jensen and perhaps other ministers as well, so a vote to impeach could make it harder to protect their own ministers, although they might expect to hold onto power for the five years until those cases are legally out of date. You would think the Liberals would just back Støjberg unconditionally, but she is also somewhat controversiel inside the party. In 1993, when Conservative Erik Ninn-Hansen was impeached (and later sentenced) for his actions as Minister of Justice, the Conservative (and Liberal) group was divided and ended up with a free vote and 7 Conservative and 7 Liberal MPs joining the left-wing and the small centrist parties in voting for impeachment. However, back then all the traditional parties had much more lenient immigration policies, so that aspect, which seems important today, had little effect back then. I'm really not sure about how it will end, but I will probably lean towards no impeachment.
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Diouf
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« Reply #132 on: December 15, 2020, 07:18:46 AM »

Liberal Alliance announces that they support impeachment of Støjberg!
Quite a blow for Støjberg despite the party only having 3 MPs. With a Blue Bloc party supporting impeachment, it should become quite a lot easier for Social Democrats to support it without much criticism. And maybe a indication that Conservatives and/or Liberals could end up with at least a free vote.
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Diouf
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« Reply #133 on: December 17, 2020, 01:34:13 PM »

Social Liberals, the sole Alternative MP and independent Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille have all, as expected, come out for impeachment. The other parties are taking legal counsel about the commission report, and what the options and likelyhoods for sentencing will be in the special court after a potential impeachment. The remaining parties are expected to announce their position in early January.

The special court, which would adjudicate after impeachment, consists of 30 persons. 15 judges from the Supreme Court, and 15 persons appointed by the parties proportionally. After the 2019 election, the Red Bloc parties have appointed 8, while the Blue Bloc parties have appointed 7. Many are former MPs or MEPs, prominent lawyers, or people with some legal background and a position in the party's administraton or important committees.
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Diouf
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« Reply #134 on: December 23, 2020, 02:04:51 PM »

A graph of the polling in 2020 by Erik Gahner Larsen for politologi.dk.
The Social Democrat got their big corona boom, which then slowly faded until october/november, where they rebounded as cases started rising faster and restrictions tightened again.

More or less steady decline for the Liberals. The party's divides are shining through on many questions with Ellemann largely seen as a weak leader, who a number of times has had the unfortunate combination of initial cosmopolitan leanings on issues before being put in his place by the more nationalconservative and agricultural part of the party base. The potential Støjberg impeachment has all the potential to divide the party further. The politicization of covid amid the mink scandal also didn't help as other Blue Bloc parties attacked harder, while Social Democrats lambasted them for risking public health by not unconditionally supporting the mink slaughter.

The minor Blue Bloc parties have largely gained from the Liberal challenges. The Conservatives are now solidly bigger than the other mid-sized parties, and their increase means that rumblings about Pape as PM candidate continue. New Right has rocketed up into mid-sized status as DPP continues to struggle and Vermund's clear and uncompromising style has brought in much support. Even the Liberal Alliance, in recent months, have moved a bit away from the 2% threshold abyss.  

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Diouf
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« Reply #135 on: December 29, 2020, 04:42:11 AM »

The war has begun in the Liberals. On Sunday, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen said in an interview that if the legal counsel agrees that there is evidence enough for impeachment, the Liberals would support impeachment: "We are a party of law and order, and the law should be abided by. That is true for everybody. That is true for the PM in the mink scandal, and for us here. I won't do a horse-trade, where the Liberals and the Social Democrats agree to protect each other from impeachment". The Ekstra Bladet newspaper today announced that Ellemann asked Støjberg to step down as deputy leader in a meeting shortly before Christmas eve, but that Støjberg refused. Støjberg has responded to Ellemann's interview by saying: "I'm very surprised. I didn't know he would do that interview, and I completely disagree with his conclusion". It is hard to see them continue to co-exist as the leadership of the party, and perhaps Støjberg would even leave the party if her MP colleagues vote to impeach her and want her gone as deputy leader.
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Diouf
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« Reply #136 on: December 30, 2020, 05:56:57 AM »

Støjberg forced to resign as deputy leader

After a meeting in the Liberal executive committee yesterday evening, Inger Støjberg was forced to resign as deputy leader of the party. Ellemann got support from a majority of the committee to make Støjberg resign. In a public comment, Ellemann stated that: "Our partnership simply does not work any longer. We have been humming different tunes for quite a while now. It is untenable with the party being in a situation, where the leader cannot lead with support from his deputy leader."
Støjberg seemed to suggest that she was considering leaving the party this morning, when she said that she "needed to think things over" to a question about whether she would stay in the party.

Prominent Liberal MPs like Kristian Jensen and Ellen Trane Nørby as well as a number of mayors have come out in support of Ellemann's decision, but in also seems clear that there is a significant Støjberg-wing. MP Hans Christian Schmidt has stated his support for Støjberg, and yesterday a mail from MP Thomas Danielsen to the rest of the party was leaked. Danielsen here states that "our party has now in public made it clear that we are no longer the party of both truck mechanics from Western Jutland (Danielsen's own background) and lawyers from Frederiksberg (the background of the most socialliberal MP in the Liberals, Jan E. Jørgensen). Our so-called leadership must believe that this will benefit us. Let's hope there are enough lawyers in Frederiksberg..."
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Diouf
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« Reply #137 on: January 01, 2021, 05:11:59 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2021, 02:25:21 AM by Diouf »

Lars Løkke Rasmussen leaves the Liberals



The Liberals have certainly not had a calm Christmas time, and tonight another bomb exploded in the crisis-ridden party. Former PM and Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen has announced that he is leaving the party after 40 years' membership. Løkke says that he wants cooperation around the political centre, where politics can be free from the demands of the furthest right and left wings. The right wing is making ultimate demands about extreme measures on immigration, and the left wing making similar pressures for extreme rises in state expenses. Løkke makes this mission statement:"We need to release ourselves from the politics of symbolic measures, professionalized communication and ultimative demands. Denmark should be freer, richer, fairer and more sustainable. We need to make constant adjustments to ensure we get quality for our tax money, that it pays to work and that we take care of the weakest. We are open to immigrants who can and want to contribute, and need to be tough against those who won't. We should transition our country to a green and sustainable future without destroying our ability to compete on international markets. We need to have the confidence to engage fully in international cooperation". Løkke also emphasizes the method of negotiations and compromises in the political centre instead of parties having to cater to the furthest wings of politics.

Ever since he was ousted as party leader, there have been rumours about Løkke making his own new centrist party. However, there haven't been any concrete steps taken, and many wondered whether he would leave politics completely. He says now that he will continue as a MP. It will be interesting to see in the coming days whether it seems like a new party is on its way, and whether he has gained other prominent supporters. There have been speculation about specific MPs from the right-wing of the Social Liberals and the left-wing of the Liberals.

Løkke was leader of the Liberal Youth 1986-1989, he was a councillor in his local municipality Græsted-Gilleleje from 1985-1997 and deputy mayor in the last three of these years, he was a regional mayor in Frederiksborg from 1998-2001, he has been a MP since 1994, Minister of Health and the Interior from 2001-2007, Minister of Finance 2007-2009, Prime Minister 2009-2011 and 2015-2019, deputy leader of the Liberals from 1998-2009 and leader of the Liberals from 2009-2019.
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Diouf
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« Reply #138 on: January 08, 2021, 12:31:49 PM »

The parties have received their legal counsel about the Støjberg potential impeachment case. As expected, SPP and the Red-Green Alliance was quick to join the Alternative, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance + 4 independents (3 ex-Alternative + 1 ex-LA)  in favour of impeachment. The DPP and New Right are against. And then we still wait for the big players, Social Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives + 2 independents (Løkke + ex-Conservative). They are expected to make an announcement within the next week.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen today announced that he has started a so-called "political network" on a new homepage. When asked what the point of such a network is, he said: "It is a meeting place. If I was younger, I might call it a movement. It is an attempt to get into direct contact with Danes, who have the same basic values as me. You should join the network if you can see yourself in the values I have announced". When asked whether the network will evolve into a new party, he answered: "Maybe, but that fully depends on the level of interest. My sense is that many believe that we need to look at politics from a new angle. If enough people agree, that might lead to a new party".
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #139 on: January 08, 2021, 03:30:00 PM »

The parties have received their legal counsel about the Støjberg potential impeachment case. As expected, SPP and the Red-Green Alliance was quick to join the Alternative, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance + 4 independents (3 ex-Alternative + 1 ex-LA)  in favour of impeachment. The DPP and New Right are against. And then we still wait for the big players, Social Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives + 2 independents (Løkke + ex-Conservative). They are expected to make an announcement within the next week.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen today announced that he has started a so-called "political network" on a new homepage. When asked what the point of such a network is, he said: "It is a meeting place. If I was younger, I might call it a movement. It is an attempt to get into direct contact with Danes, who have the same basic values as me. You should join the network if you can see yourself in the values I have announced". When asked whether the network will evolve into a new party, he answered: "Maybe, but that fully depends on the level of interest. My sense is that many believe that we need to look at politics from a new angle. If enough people agree, that might lead to a new party".
A "network". Cringe.
Next he will say that his movement is "not left, not right, but forward".
This is basically the template for "somebody starts an outfit they think is the next En Marche".
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Diouf
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« Reply #140 on: January 09, 2021, 05:16:58 PM »

A "network". Cringe.
Next he will say that his movement is "not left, not right, but forward".
This is basically the template for "somebody starts an outfit they think is the next En Marche".

Yes, the Macron template is one, several politicians have tried leaning into. We of course had an attempt to establish a party literally called Forward by independent MP Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, and the Social Liberals have used clear references to En Marche in their adverts for a while.
Løkke is also trying to build a new centrist vehicle, but surely he is much more defined as a politician with his long track-record as centre-right party leader and PM than Macron was.

First poll after Christmas by Voxmeter has Liberals down at 13.9%, but without significant rises for the other Blue Bloc parties. Conservatives "only" at 10.5%. So in this poll, it looks like a lot of Liberal voters have jumped on the fence, but not decided for another party. But we will see whether other polls paint the same picture
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Diouf
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« Reply #141 on: January 11, 2021, 03:48:33 PM »

Five candidates have announced a run for leader of the Alternative.

By far the most prominent of them is Franciska Rosenkilde, the current Mayor of Culture and Leisure in Copenhagen. Rosenkilde was elected a Copenhagen councillor in 2017 with 1 893 personal votes, and after Niko Grünfeld had to resign in 2018, she was chosen as the party's new Mayor of Culture and Leisure.
Another candidate who is slightly known is Troels Jakobsen; the former head of the Alternative Copenhagen association. While many Alternative candidates focus on green issues, he has focused most on his attention on job centers. As a playwriter, he once made a play about the treatment of unemployed in job centers, and he has talked extensively about his own experiences as unemployed. However, his very outspoken style has also created some conflicts; he was criticized for his nasty campaign against the former Social Liberal Mayor of Employment and Integration, and was very scornful of the Alternative party leadership, when they chose the Culture mayorship over the Employment and Integration one. Jakobsen was a candidate for councillor in Copenhagen in 2017, winning 754 votes. It was not enough to be elected, but after a number of retirements, he will now serve the last months of the term as a Copenhagen councillor.
The three remaining candidates are Jan Kristoffersen, a Deloitte consultant, who won 2 417 votes nationwide as a European Parliament candidate in 2019, Thor Clasen Jonasen, an assistant professor in Aarhus who won 203 personal votes when running as a candidate for councillor there in 2017 and Thomas Due Nielsen, who has been a part of the local party board in Randers.

The five candidates now have to get 100 signatures from party members in order for them to finalize their candidature before the extraordinary party congress on 7 February. Rosenkilde and Jakobsen have already collected the 100 signatures, while the other three candidates have yet to reach that threshold. The former two looks like the big favourites for the party leadership, but whoever wins have a difficult job on their hands.
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Diouf
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« Reply #142 on: January 13, 2021, 03:11:21 PM »

Lars Løkke will vote against impeaching his former minister Inger Støjberg. He says" A united parliament should adopt a criticism of Støjberg and her giving wrong information to parliament, but an impeachment will set the future barrier for such cases far too low". It sounds like Social Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives could make their decision tomorrow.

Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh is suffering from stress, so will play a lesser role in the coming months.
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« Reply #143 on: January 14, 2021, 07:29:43 AM »

In a group meeting in Venstre this morning, the party leadership has made it clear, that the party (most likely except a handful of defectors) will vote for starting an impeachment case against Støjberg. A similar message about the Social Democrats supporting the impeachment has come in a press release from Mette Frederiksen. So it looks like the impeachment is supported by a broad range of parties in the Folketing.
Støjberg herself is - with her own words - "not agreeing, disappointed, reflecting" that her chairman, Ellemann-Jensen, makes this move, but she doesn't use the word "surprised". She will now (even more) think about her political future.
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Diouf
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« Reply #144 on: January 14, 2021, 11:26:59 AM »

The Conservatives also ended up supporting impeachment, and apparently not even with freedom for individual members, so hard core Støjberg supporters Marcus Knuth and Naser Khader will apparently vote for impeaching her!
Independent Orla Østerby also for impeachment.
The Liberals is for impeachment, but has made it a free vote. 9 Liberals MPs (incl. Støjberg) will vote against impeachment. Støjberg called Ellemann's decision to go for impeachment "the biggest declaration of no confidence one can get from one's own party leader" and that she was "disappointed that it's my own leader who has invited the rest of parliament to impeach me" with reference to his public comments in the Christmas holiday. So it doesn't exactly sound like someone who would love staying in the party; it wouldn't be surprising to see her leave the party or perhaps continue to rile up the rhetoric until she is suspended or thrown out.

The timeline for the special court case will be clearer in the coming days. The expectation today seems that the court might start the case in Q3 of 2021, and then make its decision around December.
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Diouf
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« Reply #145 on: January 18, 2021, 01:45:47 PM »

YouGov poll for BT with Liberals at 9.2%, behind New Right on 11.8% and Conservatives on 12.9%. DPP is up to 8%, so combined the Blue parties are actually up to 81 seats (+2 compared to 2019 election), and that's even in a poll where they don't count seats to Christian Democrats on 1,9%, which is very likely to be enough for them to win seats.

Voxmeter's weekly poll is less bad for Liberals (13,0%), but much worse overall for the Blue parties. Very little of the Liberal decline goes to other parties, so combined the Blue parties only have 72 seats.
So it seems like two quite different ways of distributing doubting Liberal 2019 voters.
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« Reply #146 on: January 18, 2021, 01:58:01 PM »

YouGov poll for BT with Liberals at 9.2%, behind New Right on 11.8% and Conservatives on 12.9%. DPP is up to 8%, so combined the Blue parties are actually up to 81 seats (+2 compared to 2019 election), and that's even in a poll where they don't count seats to Christian Democrats on 1,9%, which is very likely to be enough for them to win seats.

Voxmeter's weekly poll is less bad for Liberals (13,0%), but much worse overall for the Blue parties. Very little of the Liberal decline goes to other parties, so combined the Blue parties only have 72 seats.
So it seems like two quite different ways of distributing doubting Liberal 2019 voters.

The YouGov poll looks really really bad for the Liberals, their worst result ever if it materialized. Could Jakob Ellemann-Jensen be toppled over the abysmal polling?

Also, doesn't Voxmeter usually overestimate the Red Bloc? Their last poll in 2019 had it on 58% and they were the only pollster to predict a Red government in 2015.
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Diouf
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« Reply #147 on: January 18, 2021, 02:41:24 PM »

The YouGov poll looks really really bad for the Liberals, their worst result ever if it materialized. Could Jakob Ellemann-Jensen be toppled over the abysmal polling?

Also, doesn't Voxmeter usually overestimate the Red Bloc? Their last poll in 2019 had it on 58% and they were the only pollster to predict a Red government in 2015.

Right now it's the perfect storm for the Liberals with Løkke leaving and Støjberg maybe leaving, and tearing in to the party from both sides. I think a majority in the party, both among MPs and the local association representatives, is hoping for some calm now and support Ellemann firmly for the moment. A minority of Støjberg supporters would probably like for him to go. But the question is how quickly the Støjberg situation will be resolved, and whether Liberals will rebound once/if has been resolved. If they remain below 15% for a sustained time and gets hammered in the local and regional elections in November, there will likely be serious questions marks about his position.

Below is the average deviation per party for the final poll in the 2019 election. Here YouGov were by some distance furthest away from the final result, largely due to them overestimating both DPP, New Right and Hard Line. But you are right that Voxmeter generally have better results for the Red bloc parties. They had them favoured in the 2015 election, but clearly underestimated especially DPP. They did indeed have the Red Bloc on 58,8% two days before the 2019 election, but I looked in the polling collection, and they actually saved themselves somewhat by a final poll on the day before the election where the Red Bloc parties "only" got 55%. Which is why their result below does not look that poor. To their defense, there probably was a lot of doubters, although it should have been visible that it was primarily 2015 Blue voters, who broke late and mostly for Liberals and Conservatives.

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