Danish Elections and Politics

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Early April status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.
The three most interesting parties are:

Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 14 375 (+ 1 989 since early March)
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 14 034 (+ 1 341)
Fremad (Forward) is at 2 553 (+106)

Christian Democrats now with the most signatures, and still safely on their way towards eligibility. The Vegan Party remains in the grey zone, where eligibility certainly is possible. They could be helped somewhat by the complete implosion of the Alternative, and must hope that the Free Green Voices will not amount to a real party. Forward is still a dead-end.

What about the bigger parties? Are they bothering to submit signatures this early?

[MaxQue]

Early April status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.
The three most interesting parties are:

Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 14 375 (+ 1 989 since early March)
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 14 034 (+ 1 341)
Fremad (Forward) is at 2 553 (+106)

Christian Democrats now with the most signatures, and still safely on their way towards eligibility. The Vegan Party remains in the grey zone, where eligibility certainly is possible. They could be helped somewhat by the complete implosion of the Alternative, and must hope that the Free Green Voices will not amount to a real party. Forward is still a dead-end.

What about the bigger parties? Are they bothering to submit signatures this early?

If you get 2% in the last election, you are automatically registered.

[Diouf]

What about the bigger parties? Are they bothering to submit signatures this early?

Parties, who entered parliament at the last general election and still have at least one MP, are automatically eligible to run in the next general election. That's one of the reasons why it's crucial that the Alternative, so far, still has one MP, Torsten Gejl, and therefore remains eligible for the next general election. So the signature collection is only necessary for new parties trying to break into parliament. While the demands to run are quite a lot higher than in most countries, eligibility also has much more of an advantage in Denmark with secured participation in all major debates and election programs.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will the Alternative leave any lasting legacy? Have the government or any of the other parties adopted any of their manifestos?

[Diouf]

Will the Alternative leave any lasting legacy? Have the government or any of the other parties adopted any of their manifestos?

On climate change, they certainly seem to have pushed the direction towards more ambitious goals. In the winter of 2017, they announced the specific goal of a 70% reduction of green house gas emissions in 2030 compared to 1990. At first, they were alone with such an ambitious target. During the 2019 election campaign, they convinced the Red-Green Alliance, SPP and the Social Liberals to form a climate pact about the 70% target. And then during the government negotiations, the target became a part of the governing agrement. In december 2019, the target made it into the agreement on the Climate Law, which Liberals, Conservatives and DPP were also a part of. So in a few years, it went from being an quite extreme position to one shared by the large majority of parliament. And in general, their existence probably helped pushed the parties towards more ambitious goals.

They have also promoted the idea of cannabis for medicinal purposes, where an agreement was made in 2016 to start tests. Finally, they managed to get a majority for the stupid idea of citizen proposals. A citizen proposal comes before parliament if it gets 50.000 signatures. Thankfully, none of these proposals have been accepted. In Denmark with so many different parties in parliament, the reasons for things not being done is basically never that they aren't proposed in parliament, but that there isn't a majority to approve them. Predictably, this has just been a tool for interest groups (student associations, climate change organizations etc.) to push their ideas, which they could easily have done in better ways. It has been sad to see people throw a lot of energy into this futile idea of collecting signatures, and then become mad at politics, when it was predictably voted down. And it is outright bizarre to often see some parties cheer this on, when they could just themselves walk 10 steps and put the proposal before parliament.

[Diouf]

The monthly status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.

Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 15 909 (+ 1 534 since early April)
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 15 003 (+ 969)

A slight slowdown for both parties; probably as COVID-19 makes collecting signatures more difficult. It is likely mostly digital signatures, which have been collected. Parties have generally used markets and town fairs as places to collect signatures in the summer, but those will of course not take place this year.  Christian Democrats are still with the highest total and the biggest rate of increase, and on their way towards eligibility again as they are now more than 3/4 there. The Vegan Party started earlier and collected signatures in the months before last years general election, so they will likely have signatures running out soon. So they are in the grey zone, but need a few stronger months soon. Towards the end, the momentum of "almost being there", might help pace things up a bit.

[Diouf]

Polling average based on the most recent polls from Voxmeter, YouGov, Megafon, Epinion and Gallup compared to their last polls before the COVID-19 crisis.

Social Democrats 33.9% (+7.8%)
Social Liberals 7.1% (-1.2%)
Conservatives 7.3% (-0.5%)
New Right 3.4% (-0.7%)
Citizens List 0.5% (+0.1%)
SPP 7.0% (-1.0%)
Liberal Alliance 2.0% (-0.1%)
DPP 7.8% (-0.7%)
Tough Line 1.2% (-0.1%)
Liberals 20.3% (-2.2%)
Red-Green Alliance 7.5% (=)
Alternative 0.7% (-1.3%)
Others 1.1% (-0.1%)

So a massive Social Democratic boost, while basically all the other parties decline a bit. The Alternative collapse is visible as they have fallen a lot considering their already tiny size.

[CumbrianLefty]

Polling average based on the most recent polls from Voxmeter, YouGov, Megafon, Epinion and Gallup compared to their last polls before the COVID-19 crisis.

Social Democrats 33.9% (+7.8%)
Social Liberals 7.1% (-1.2%)
Conservatives 7.3% (-0.5%)
New Right 3.4% (-0.7%)
Citizens List 0.5% (+0.1%)
SPP 7.0% (-1.0%)
Liberal Alliance 2.0% (-0.1%)
DPP 7.8% (-0.7%)
Tough Line 1.2% (-0.1%)
Liberals 20.3% (-2.2%)
Red-Green Alliance 7.5% (=)
Alternative 0.7% (-1.3%)
Others 1.1% (-0.1%)

So a massive Social Democratic boost, while basically all the other parties decline a bit. The Alternative collapse is visible as they have fallen a lot considering their already tiny size.

What's the left/right balance there compared to the last election?

[Diouf]

What's the left/right balance there compared to the last election?

52.1% - 47.7% in the election, with the seat distribution favouring the left a fair bit more due to three right wing parties missing the threshold.

52.0% - 46.8% in the average before COVID-19 with others at 1.2%, which are primarily Christian Democrat, so right wing in this split.

56.3% - 42.6 now with others at 1.1%, which are primarily Christian Democrat, so right wing in this split.

[Diouf]

From the cities and the gold coast to the periphery: Agreement on municipal redistribution reform



Today the government, Liberals, Social Liberals, SPP and Alternative reached agreement on a new municipal redistribution system. The agreement increases the state funding of the municipalities with 1.7 billion DKK and increases the internal redistribution between the municipalities. Some of the most significant changes are increased funding for municipalities with a high proportion of sick and elderly citizens and with higher unemployment, and lowered compensation for municipalities with many immigrants. The agreement includes incentives for municipalities with high taxes to lower them to offset the expected tax increases in other municipalities. If municipal taxes still rise overall, there will be a general state tax reduction of a similar amount.

The agreement mainly seems to have been reached between the two major municipal parties, Social Democrats and Liberals, who have agreed that one of them cannot make a new municipal redistribution reform without the other. SPP are always there to support the Social Democrats, and both they and the Alternative highlighted the redistribution and increased funding as the main reasons for supporting the deal. It might seem a little stranger that the Social Liberals are there as they are redistributing money away from many of their voters in wealthy, urban areas, but they focused on the good old Socialliberal mantras of "taking responsibility" and "securing a broad agreement across the centre of politics". Conservatives, Liberal Alliance and New Right are not in the agreement due to the increased redistribution, while Red-Green Alliance and DPP left the negotiations as they did not think there was enough increased welfare spending guaranteed.

The map below shows the changes per year per citizen based on current figures. The blue municipalities gain money, while the red lose it.

[Diouf]

Rasmus Nordqvist joins SPP



MP Rasmus Nordqvist today joined the SPP after two months as a Free Green Voice. Nordqvist ran for the Alternative leadership earlier this year as the Elbæk-continuity candidate, but failed to even get among the two final candidates. Nordqvist played a major part in the Alternative throughout its existence, and was elected to Parliament in 2015. For long stretches he had the prominent role as political spokesperson, but never gained a wider public traction, and was only fairly narrowly elected in both 2015 and 2019. He was the party's lead candidate for the 2019 EP election, where he did decently and lead the party to 3.4% of the votes.
Nordqvist's decision to join SPP suggests that there isn't any grand new Green party coming from Elbæk and his gang. There is still up to three years left of the term, and life as an independent without any influence probably isn't all that fun. It will be interesting to see what the three other former-Alternative MPs, Elbæk, Zimmer and Siddique decide to do.

[Elcaspar]

Given how close the Christian Democrats got to entering parliament in 2019, do you see any potential of them getting  in the next general election? Or was 2019 a lost chance for the Christian Democrats?

[Diouf]

Given how close the Christian Democrats got to entering parliament in 2019, do you see any potential of them getting  in the next general election? Or was 2019 a lost chance for the Christian Democrats?

I think it's probably most likely that they regress a bit again towards the 1.0% mark, where they landed in previous elections. There were some things breaking right for them in 2019 with Isabella Arendt as a new, fresh thing in the TV debates and the existing centre-right bloc in disarray with DPP + LA collapsing. Perhaps they had also had more of a chance in that it was not a close election at all; in a tighter election voters might have been a bit less likely to vote for a party around the treshold.
I still think they seem too internally conflicted to communicate clearly; Isabella Arendt is a former Social Liberal whose focus is on climate and immigration, while Kristian Andersen, who almost got them elected in Western Jutland, sounds more like a Liberal on many issues and clearly attracted many Liberal voters. I think the latter strategy is much more likely to succeed. A strong focus on improving small towns and building strong local communities aimed towards voters, who aren't scared of the "Christian" part in the name, unlike the socially liberal voters Arendt seem to court. And with the new Liberal leader Jakob Ellemann-Jensen being seen somewhat as a urban, slightly soft leader, then there should be an even bigger potential. But I don't think they will pick that route.

[Diouf]

Do you feel lucky? Ex-MP starts new party without ideology



Yesterday, ex-MP Rene Gade introduced his new party Lykkepartiet (the Happiness Party), which aims to transform the way of doing politics. Gade was a MP for the Alternative from 2015-2019, but his new party is to be devoid of any ideology. Instead the party's aim is to change the constitutional foundation of Danish democracy and introduce a better and more honest communication into the political sphere. There will be no common political line, and all candidates and MPs would be allowed to vote any way they want in the parliamentary votes. Instead the party is based on 20 ideas for a better democracy, ranging from the fairly common to the outright bizarre.

The PM should be a non-political figure with leadership experience, whose aim is to implement the government agreement in the best and least politicizing manner. A minister cannot simultaneously be a MP. The PM proposes three candidates for each ministerial role, which is then put to a vote in parliament. Election should take place on a fixed date every four years with no possibility for early dissolution. Politicians' salaries and pensions should be decided by an independent committee. Political proposals should be honestly communicated with openness about downsides and potential negative affects. If a minister is deemed to have lied to parliament or kept it from doing its role, a no-confidence vote only needs 33% of the votes to remove the minister. The emergency legislative procedure can only be used in situations of national emergency, and such legislation must have 2/3 approval and include a sunset clause with a maximum of one year. Parliamentary immunity should be removed.

Technological participation in debates and votes should be made possible. A MP can participate in at most two foreign committee trips a year, unless the MP pays for its own participation. Any MP should take at least a three week internship a year in an area relevant for its spokesperson roles. MPs and ministers shall participate in at least one of two new cross-party development workshops a year. If any media article is based on contact with a party, MP or minister, this should be stated in the article. There should be a large parliamentary library and expert department, which serves all members, so smaller parties are not disadvantaged compared to larger parties and the government. Party funding should be reduced. There should be strict rules for the registration of all meetings with lobbyists. There should be an increased opportunity to get public access to ministerial documents. There should be strict registrations of all donations to political parties and candidates. Associations and companies, which are part of state committees with advisory or decision-making abilities, should be fully transparent about ownership and economy.

It seems pretty obvious that Gade should have made "The Association for a Better Democracy" or "The Assocation for a New Constitution" instead of forming a party. When the party only has something to say about the process of politics, it probably shouldn't be a party. If one is to trust Gade's announcements, it's more like a common list for independents. But why not just try to change the electoral system to make it easier for independents to be elected? Do voters really want to vote for one of the party's "independent minds" with the big risk that the vote will instead help elect another "independent mind" with the complete opposite political views? Of course, in practice the party could very well turn out to be another soft centre-left, green party where most candidates are in large political agreement. But this kind of goes against the no-ideology ethos, and would make it even more frustrating that they don't have an official common party line, so they can participate in political negotiations. Thankfully, this project seems very unlikely to succeed as a party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hmmm, the track record of these "beyond ideology" parties isn't exactly stellar.

[Diouf]

The monthly status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.

Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 17 307 (+ 1 398 since early May)
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 15 397 (+ 394)

A slight further slowdown for the Christian Democrats, but this months haul is still clearly above the monthy haul needed to collect the necessary signatures. With this tempo, they will likely reach eligibility towards the end of the summer. However, for the Vegan Party it's starting to look bad. An addition of less than 394 signatures this month is clearly too little. It could very well be that the party is starting to hit the point, where some of their first signatures have reached their expiry date + they are finding it difficult to get enough new signatures. They are still at such a high level that a wind of momentum, perhaps through an event with significant media attention, could carry them across the line, but the current trend certainly looks negative.

[PSOL]

How are the Red-Greens standing as of now?

[Diouf]

How are the Red-Greens standing as of now?

In the polling average I posted in early May, they were the only party in parliament not to lose votes in the Corona situation amid the Social Democratic boom. And their 7.5% result in that average was already up, compared to the 6.9% in the election. Since then, we have only had the weekly tracking polls from Voxmeter, where they are at 8.0%, 7.8% and 9.0% and a Yougov poll which had them a 6.6%. So just averaging these two pollsters suggest they are still around that 7.5% mark. One should perhaps note that the Red-Greens have basically polled above their eventual election result throughout all of the last two terms. I'm not entirely sure what has caused this; perhaps a few of their younger urban voters does not actually turn up, perhaps they are a very clear opposition vehicle during a term but voters might choose another leftwing party in the campaign. In 2015, they were likely also hampered by the Alternative emerging.

[Diouf]

Agreement on Corona-stimulus, New Right bigger than DPP in poll



The government, the Liberals, the Social Liberals, SPP, the Red-Green Alliance, the Conservatives and the Alternative has agreed on a Corona stimulus package. The biggest part is to pay out part of the retirement holiday funds early. Due to a change in the holiday fund system, the plan was that five weeks of holiday funds earned up this holiday year were only to be paid out at retirement. However, the parties agreed that three weeks worth of holiday funds will be paid out this year, at latest in October. For someone earning 200 000 DKK a year before taxes, this would means a holiday payout of 9 000 DKK. All persons getting public benefits or pensions will receive a check of 1 000 DKK. The unemployment period will be extended with two months. 700 mio DKK will go to a summer package, boosting tourism on islands and in rural and nature areas. 10 billion DKK for a fund to act as investor of last resort if significant, major companies are in danger of collapsing. 500 mio DKK for an export fund with focus on boosting green technology.

DPP and New Right left the negotiations because the 1 000 DKK check will also go to foreign citizens on public benefits. Liberal Alliance were generally opposed to further funds for persons on public benefits, believe the help packages will go on for too long, and are opposed to the state investor fund.

A YouGov poll for BT for the first time had New Right (7.7%) bigger than DPP (6.6%) in a poll. However it should be said that YouGov has generally polled New Right very high; during the election campaign they often had them at 4% and above, but only received 2.4%. Voxmeter also polled New Right higher than usual, but only at 3.4% (compared to 6.6% for DPP).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How much lower can Dansk Folkeparti sink before Thulesen Dahl is forced out?

[Jens]

How much lower can Dansk Folkeparti sink before Thulesen Dahl is forced out?

Given the history of DPP, don't expect him to leave anytime soon. There is no tradition for any opposition in DPP - as a party, is was basicially founded to have a rightwing party with no internal democracy. The ghost of the chaos of Progress Party is still very strong, even with the younger leaders who wasn't even born when Pia Kærsgaard left PP.
But if DPP suffers a heavy defeat in next years local elections, the internal pressure for a new leadership will be heavy. But Thulesen Dahl will probably resign before he is challenged.

[Diouf]

Elbæk's final reply

Uffe Elbæk has posted an article called "the final reply" with his view on the developments in the Alternative, and particularly the battle with Josephine Fock. There is not much self-reflection in the text, but it is a story of a comically inept party leader.

Elbæk's story starts out the day after the 2015 election. In the Eastern Jutland constituency, which includes Aarhus and would therefore surely grant the party at least one seat if they were elected to parliament, Elbæk and his allies had supported Niko Grünfeld, but Josephine Fock ended up winning the party's seat quite comfortably (3775 to 2876 personal votes). So upon learning about the personal vote tallies, Elbæk calls Fock and congratulates her on winning the seat, but also strongly advises her to ensure a reconciliation with Grünfeld and his allies to avoid the Aarhus division of the party being split from the start. Fock was strongly provoked by this, and according to Elbæk, started an angry rant to the extent that Elbæk ended up hanging up on her.

The party leadership after the election became Elbæk, Rasmus Nordqvist and Josephine Fock. Elbæk said the cooperation among them was plagued by conflicts and divisions, culminating in the summer of 2017. Nordqvist and Fock, without Elbæk's knowledge, carried out an evaluation of the work environment among the members of the Alternative secretariat in parliament. Shortly after Elbæk telling them off for this, Fock started her own investigation of a case, where the party's head of secretariat (and political advisor to Elbæk) had re-hired a former secretariat employee, who had been sacked after a sexual harrassment case, to a new international project. Elbæk sees this as undermining his own leadership, and therefore decides to ask the parliamentary group to sack Fock and elect a new parliamentary group leader (and thereby member of the leadership). But then, apparently to Elbæk's surprise, 6 of the 10 MPs voted against Elbæk. He then describes the situation as being basically under administration for the rest of the term. The majority only accepted Fock resigning if Nordqvist resigned as well, and the two replacements were from the anti-Elbæk majority. Additionally Elbæk said the majority started "snipering" his close employees in the party administration with sackings and leaks. A battle that also spilled over into the Copenhagen branch, where Elbæk-ally Niko Grünfeld was lead candidate in the 2017 local elections, but didn't last long. He chose the less influential mayor post as Mayor of Culture instead of e.g. Mayor of Employment and Integration, and soon stories started about his resume and excessive expenses for decorating his alternative mayor's office. Grünfeld resigned in october 2018. Around the same time Fock left parliament for a job in the Danish Refugee Council, according to Elbæk because he didn't want to give a her a bigger public role.

Elbæk blames the alternative majority for his party's woes for the bad election result in 2019, but he said the result gave him new hope. Cause only one member of the alternative majority was elected, while Elbæk and Nordqvist were both re-elected along two new MPs who supported Elbæk and Nordqvist. So Elbæk said the party was on the right course again, and he was calm in resigning the party leadership towards the end of 2019. He didn't expect Fock to run, since she had recently left and because she would not have much support in the parliamentary group. He said there were discussions about coming out in public with the Elbæk gang's opposition to Fock, but he himself did not want to be seen as interfering, so only allies with a lower public profile went public. And Fock won the election, with Nordqvist only finishing third.

As I said there is little self-reflection from Elbæk. The incompetence is staggering; trying and failing to get your favourite candidate elected in the second most-important constituency and then putting the responsibility on healing on the other candidate, allowing a toxic environment to be created in the party secretariat without interfering, trying to consolidate his power base in the leadership without having any idea that a majority of a 10 MP group is opposed to him, not being prepared for Fock running as leader or knowing that she could have enough support to be elected, and not interfering in an election he must have predicted would destroy the party when an Elbæk intervention could probably have swayed many.

Elbæk said this article was the final reply from him in regards to the Alternative. And then teases that something new might come: "With this text, I have put an end to an important chapter in my political life. And thereby I'm ready to start a new one". In recent weeks Elbæk and fellow ex-Alternative MP Sikandar Siddique have been very vocal in the discussion about race and racism, with Siddique using his time in the prestigious "end of season" debate in parliament on a minute silence for George Floyd. Elbæk then called Siddique the first "100% authentic voice for the brown, diverse Denmark, which apparently previous MPs with an immigrant background had not been. So could this be the emphasis of a potential new initiative; a "diversity party" or something in that mould? We will see if Elbæk tries his hand as political entrepreneur again, and whether he has learned anything from his long list of failings in the Alternative.

[Diouf]

A YouGov poll for BT for the first time had New Right (7.7%) bigger than DPP (6.6%) in a poll. However it should be said that YouGov has generally polled New Right very high; during the election campaign they often had them at 4% and above, but only received 2.4%. Voxmeter also polled New Right higher than usual, but only at 3.4% (compared to 6.6% for DPP).

Three other pollsters have now also shown New Right high and close to DPP.
Gallup with New Right at 5.8%, DPP at 6.1%
Megafon with New Right at 6.2%, DPP at 6.1%
Voxmeter with New Right at 5.3%, DPP at 5.4%

The upswing seem to coincide with the increased prominence of discussions about race and discrimination after BLM protests, where the New Right has played a significant role.

[Diouf]

The monthly status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.

Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 18 487 (+ 1 180 since early May)
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 17 613 (+ 2 216)
Fremad (Forward) is at 3 301 (+ 691)
Lykkepartiet (Happiness Party) 359 (new)

Another fairly steady month by the Christian Democrats, who are now only 1 695 signatures away from eligibility, so they seem like they will reach eligibility some time during August. The Vegan Party had an amazing haul after a few less than average months. One major reasons seem to be the support of reality stars Linse Kessler and the Pitzner Family, who both encouraged their Instagram followers (500 000 and 350 000 respectively) to sign for the party. Linse Kessler is the sister of former boxer Mikkel Kessler, and has been a familiar face since the reality show about the family started in 2011. She has been convicted of several offences related to drugs, violence, threats etc, has run several brothels, but is quite popular due to an seemingly authentic Copenhagen working class style. She has previously voiced support for animals, and was the poster girl of a nationwide campaign to boost reuse of plastic. The Pitzner family is a family, which has made its fortune on diamonds, and which have also had a popular reality show the last couple of years. With this boost, the animal party is now only 2 569 signatures away from eligibility, and I would guess that the reality hype could still boost signatures, so the last ones could come in fast. They might almost reach eligibility at the same time as the Christian Democrats.
After several months of complete standstill, Forward finally managed to get a bit of traction, but there's still a long way to go. The party leader and MP Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille has railed hard against Inger Støjberg and her actions as the hearings have started in the investigative commission, which is to look at what happened in her time as Minister of Immigration when all married asylum seeker couples with one person below 18 were divided at asylum centres, contrary to international conventions which require individual case treatment.
Luckily, not exactly a lot of support early on for the Happiness Party.

[Diouf]

Christian Democrats secure their spot on the ballot, Vegan Party soon to follow

The monthly status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.

Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 20 257 (+ 1 770 since early July)
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 20 011 (+ 2 398)
Fremad (Forward) is at 3 504 (+ 203)

The Christian Democrats have secured their spot on the ballot for the next general election. The party last entered parliament at the 2001 election, but they were of course very close in 2019 where they missed out by 200 votes with a new young leader in Isabella Arendt. The party still needs to apply officially for eligibility, and might collect a few extra signatures in case some are ruled non-valid at the final count, but they should be officially eligible in August.
The Vegan Party had another super month, perhaps still reaping the benefits of the reality stars' endorsement. They are less than 200 signatures short at the moment, so it seems likely that they could officially reach eligibility towards the end of August.
Forward is the party with the highest number of signatures after the top two, but they are far from the 20.000, and their pace is nowhere near high enough.