Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Three candidates have announced their intention to become Alternative leader so far. The favourite, MP Rasmus Nordqvist, regional councillor Rasmus Foged from the Central Jutland region and Mette Rahbek, who was a candidate for the party in Funen at the general election. Candidates need support from 100 members to take part in the contest, and the deadline is 16 January.

Klaus Riskær Pedersen has announced that his party Klaus Riskær Pedersen will change its name to Borgerlisten (Citizens' List). The party is still eligible to run until spring/summer 2020, and would then have to collect signatures again to regain its eligibility.

The government, Liberals, DPP, Social Liberals, SPP, Red-Green Alliance, Alternative and New Right has made an agreement to limit payday loans. The agreement sets the maximum APR (annual percentage rate) for these loans at 35%, loans with an APR above 25% or loans directly to gambling can't be advertised, and extra charges for late payment are limited so the total amount paid back (repayments, interest rates + charges) can't not be more than twice the amount loaned. Also some money is dedicated to debt counseling and more education about household economy in schools.

[Diouf]

Another candidate has joined the Alternative leadership contest, and she looks like Nordqvist's hardest challenger so far. Theresa Scavenius is a social science scientist, whose ph.d was about climate politics, and ran as a candidate in the general election 2019. Here she ran in Northern Zealand and won 1267 personal votes, ahead of the incumbent MP Christian Poll, but the party lost its seat in the constituency. A few days ago, she wrote a scathing review of the 2020 budget, which Alternative supported. She denounced it as "symbol policies and greenwashing" and with the "fossil fuel elite" having the deciding influence. She claims the government has left climate policies to the industry itself with a too big emphasis on short-term jobs and growth. Therefore it seems her style would be less the happy-go-lucky attitude of Elbæk (and Nordqvist) which praises other political parties and accepts small steps and compromises, and more angry Greta-like attacks on the other parties and refusal to accept less radical policies.
Below the pictures, some words on each of the two top candidates from Morten Reimar, who has recently written a biography about Uffe Elbæk



"Despite living in Copenhagen, she decided to run in Northern Zealand because she believed it would be easier to beat the other candidates there. The incumbent MP, Christian Poll, was windbreaker and round-toe shoes, while she was Burberry glasses and Mulberry purses. She didn't engage with local activists, but ran her own campaign with paid employees. Not exactly the Alternative spirit, but it helped her beat Poll. Some in the party found it too calculated and unsympathetic, especially since some of it was financed by big donors with a Goldman Sachs past. But she is one of the party's strongest cards on green issues, with an ethos- and pathosfilled argumentation."



"With Grünfeld out of the running, Nordqvist is now alone in the positions as Elbæk's lieutenant, protegé and likely successor. He has been a good friend of Elbæk before he formed the Alternative, and is in many ways a 'Mini-Uffe' as an urban, gay, male entrepreneur. But many have doubts about his charisma, and whether he will be able to make the party grow. He puts a lot of effort into his subject areas, and knows his stuff. Some wonder whether his plan was to get into the EP, and then return on a later point as leader, when the Elbæk comparisons were less obvious."

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/forfatter-bag-ny-bog-om-uffe-elbaek-her-er-fem-bud-paa-hans-efterfoelger

[PSOL]

Pushback from farmers as plans to redevelop peat bogs in place

...

 Peat may seem like a fringe issue in the battle against climate change, but according to a recent study by Aarhus University, flooding cultivated former peatlands could cut Denmark’s emissions by 1.4m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year – about the same amount produced by the capital city of Copenhagen. With Denmark now committed to the world’s most ambitious climate goals, these savings are in the spotlight.

The ruling Social Democrats struck a deal this month with supporting and opposition parties to enshrine these climate goals in law. “It’s the most ambitious climate law in place at the moment,” says professor Katherine Richardson at Copenhagen University. “This has been a social tipping point. Nobody in Denmark a year ago dreamed we could be in a situation like this now.”

...

Denmark’s political parties agreed at the beginning of this month to spend over the next decade 200m Danish kroner (£23m) a year on buying up land for reflooding, and work is likely to begin in 2020.

[Diouf]

An end of the year polling average, based on the most recent polls from Voxmeter, Gallup, Epinion & Megafon (change compared to the 2019 election). There is a slight movement towards the right, but nothing significant. And with the Liberal Alliance slipping just below the threshold, the combined right wing parties would probably lose a seat or two. The Liberals have not gotten an Ellemann bounce yet, and instead it seems like the Conservatives have profited off the disagreements in the other parties (+gaining the popular MP Marcus Knuth). With Tough Line and Citizen List losing its eligibility during spring/summer 2020, there is around 2.0% "free", which should mainly be picked up by the other opposition parties.

Social Democrats 25.3% (-0.6%)
Social Liberals 8.5% (-0.1%)
Conservatives 7.8% (+1.2%)
New Right 3.0% (+0.6%)
Citizen List 0.6% (-0.2%)
SPP 8.0% (+0.3%)
Liberal Alliance 1.9% (-0.4%)
DPP 8.9% (+0.2%)
Tough Line 1.6% (-0.2%)
Liberals 23.0% (-0.4%)
Red-Green Alliance 7.5% (+0.6%)
Alternative 2.5% (-0.5%)
Others 1.4% (-0.4)

Government + support parties + Alternative: 51.8% (-0.3%)
Opposition (centre-right to right wing): 46.8% (+0.8%)
Others (primarily Christian Democrats) 1.4% (-0.4%)

And a fifth candidate has announced her wish to become Alternative leader. The local councillor from Skanderborg, Mira Issa Bloch, has joined the race.

[Diouf]

Early January status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 109 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.
The three most interesting parties, who seem to stand a chance are:

Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 10 454 (+ 1 492 since early december)
Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 8 942 (+ 2 153)
Fremad (Forward) is at 2 143 (+550)

In December there are several holidays, so the numbers are probably a bit lower than for an usual month. As expected, the Christian Democrats still seem safely on course towards becoming eligible. The Vegan Party also remains on a level that is likely to make them eligible if they can keep it up. One could wonder whether they will have a slight effect on the Alternative leadership election; maybe more people will go for a radical like Scavenius to better fight off the Vegan Party, which I would think could win some of the more radical Alternative voters. A poor month for Forward, which is quite far from the pace needed to become eligible. Ammitzbøll-Bille does not have many easy ways to get attention as his vote is unlikely to be needed in any majority formation, and he doesn't seem to be invited to negotiations as the party isn't eligible yet. And perhaps also a sign of the lack of much organisation so far.

[jaymichaud]

What ever happened to Liberal Alliance? Can they bounce back or were they just a fad?

[Diouf]

What ever happened to Liberal Alliance? Can they bounce back or were they just a fad?

They acted in a bizarre way during the last term, was the main cause of the internal "Blue Bloc" squabbling and ended up as a laughing stock. They repeatedly said they would take down the Liberal government if they didn't get all the top tax cuts they wanted, despite nothing near a majority for these proposals. Once the crisis had escalated, they then instead dropped those demands and joined the government instead (which basically continued the policies of the previous Liberal government). Inside the government, they continued to create crises, e.g. threatening to vote against the government's own budget. So in addition to the "normal failure" of being a radical party going into a government which wasn't very radical, they were a common joke due to their intense and frequent threats without following up on any of them.
I think they should have a decent chance of a bounce back. The old leadership, Anders Samuelsen and Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, is gone, and the new leader Alex Vanopslagh seems like a good fit to reconnect with the young, liberal voters. Most of the internal troubles should be finished now that Ammitzbøll-Bille and his clique has left the party, but that did have some negative consequences in terms of party support as they are only three MPs now. 

[ingemann]

What ever happened to Liberal Alliance? Can they bounce back or were they just a fad?

They acted in a bizarre way during the last term, was the main cause of the internal "Blue Bloc" squabbling and ended up as a laughing stock. They repeatedly said they would take down the Liberal government if they didn't get all the top tax cuts they wanted, despite nothing near a majority for these proposals. Once the crisis had escalated, they then instead dropped those demands and joined the government instead (which basically continued the policies of the previous Liberal government). Inside the government, they continued to create crises, e.g. threatening to vote against the government's own budget. So in addition to the "normal failure" of being a radical party going into a government which wasn't very radical, they were a common joke due to their intense and frequent threats without following up on any of them.
I think they should have a decent chance of a bounce back. The old leadership, Anders Samuelsen and Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, is gone, and the new leader Alex Vanopslagh seems like a good fit to reconnect with the young, liberal voters. Most of the internal troubles should be finished now that Ammitzbøll-Bille and his clique has left the party, but that did have some negative consequences in terms of party support as they are only three MPs now. 

I don’t think a bounce are impossible, but right now I don’t think it will happen, they seem to want to fight over the same voting segment as New Right and Conservatives. And both these parties have much greater credibility, New Right as more hardline and Conservative as pragmatic. I think LA would have been off moving to the position Ammitzbøl have taken, the problem is that Vanopslagh have moved to the place which fit his worldview. Of course Ammitzbøl is unlikely to really gain anything even without LA not competing for the same segment, thanks to his complete lack of charisma or credibility.

I predict that LA will either die by next election or only barely surviving. The only hope they have is that DPP kills New Right or New Right moving to the left on the economic issues to compete with DPP. I don’t see LA really being able to make a credible move away from there they stand anymore.

[Diouf]

Another major contender has joined the Alternative leadership race, taking the total tally to six candidates. Josephine Fock is a former MP, who co-founded the party and played a leading role in the party until leaving parliament in the fall of 2018 to take up a position in the Danish Refugee Council.

She represents the pragmatic "Realos-wing" in the party, and her main pitch in the leadership race is that the party should seeks a closer cooperation with the government and that the party should have clearly supported Mette Frederiksen as PM and joined the negotiations about her majority after the election. So three major candidates each seem to advocate different approaches to the party's strategic choices; Scavenius' oppositional style, Fock prefers a closer relationsship with the government, and Nordqvist is somewhere in between in what looks like a continuation of Elbæk's style.

[Diouf]

Kristian Jensen stripped of all committee posts and spokesperson roles after solo proposal

Kristian Jensen, the former Liberal deputy leader, has tonight had all his committee posts and spokesperson roles removed by the party after his solo proposal which will be on the front page of the Jyllands-Posten daily tomorrow. Jensen proposes a set of wide-ranging 2030 reforms which should be decided with the Government, the Social Liberals and the Conservatives. Of possible reforms to be included, Jensen mentions a taxation reform with higher taxes on CO2-emissions and lower taxes on income and reforms to reduce unemployment benefits for graduates, remove the senior job program which guarantees a municipal job or benefit for those close to the "efterløn" early retirement age whose unemployment benefits have run out, a reformed state education grant (i.e. lower at least for some groups) and a job centre reform (likely privatisation or increased involvement of private companies. The proposal was not cleared with anyone in the current Liberal leadership, which is probably why they're so furious with him. I'm not sure they are actually opposed to many of the specific details, although they might go a big too far considering the welfare line of the party, but the strategic element is interfering with what should be the leader's element. Also the plan about a big formalized cooperation about big reforms does not really seem likely; obviously the Social Liberals are over the moon with this proposal but both the Social Democrats and Conservatives are much more wary. The Social Democrats would certainly not like those cuts in social spending and benefits nor the taxation reform which would probably increase inequality, and I would also think the Conservatives would generally prefer a much more oppositional role towards the government. And while many reforms will end up being made with fairly big majorities, it isn't normally in such a wide-ranging common cooperation.
Jensen only had a fairly minor role in public after his resignation, being the party's spokesperson for Arctic Affairs, but without membership of any committees, there isn't a lot to do politically as a MP. And it is symbolically a big blow for a man, who was Minister of Finance some months ago.

[Diouf]

The deadline has passed to become a candidate for Alternative leader, and six candidates managed to get the necessary 100 backers before the deadline expired. Parliamentary candidate Mette Rahbek did not manage to gather the 100 backers, but Sascha Faxe, another parliamentary candidate, managed to reach the threshold despite a late announcement. Faxe finished second among the Alternative candidates in the Zealand constituency with 1 192 personal votes, only beaten by Rasmus Nordqvist who won the seat with 1 499 personal votes.
So the six candidates are:

Josephine Fock (54 years), MP 2015-2018
Rasmus Nordqvist (44), MP 2015-
Theresa Scavenius (35), parliamentary candidate
Mira Issa Bloch (39), local councillor Skanderborg
Rasmus Foged (41), regional councillor Central Jutland
Sascha Faxe (48), parliamentary candidate

The extraordinary party congress will be held on 1 February, and the election will take place in up to three rounds. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the top 4 candidates will proceed to the second round. If no candidate gets more than 50% in the second round, the top 2 candidates will proceed to the third and final round. Fock, Nordqvist and Scavenius look like the three strongest candidates, but this is the first leadership election in a quite new party, so it can be hard to predict. Nordqvist should be able to get to the final two as the heir apparent and only current MP, but I think it counts against him that he is the status quo candidate + I imagine many would like a female leader.

[Diouf]

With the extraordinary party congress and leadership election in the Alternative on Saturday, the knives are starting to come out.
First, 12 of the 20 party members with a committee role in the party's Northern Zealand branch attacked Theresa Scavenius, who was a parliamentary candidate in that constituency and received the most personal votes there at the election. The members accused her of lacking empathy and humility. They said she stepped on the toes of many members during the campaign, and showed no sign of wanting to make amends as she did not show up for the campaign evaluations. They also raised the issue of big donations from a former Goldman Sachs investor. As a response, Scavenius posted on Facebook: "I understand someone has accused me of lacking empathy, so here's the link to a cat video" with a link to a kitten being bottle fed.
Then former MP Ulla Sandbæk came out with a hard attack against another leading candidate, Josephine Fock. Sandbæk describes her as unpleasant and mainpulative, and said "despite spending most of a parliamentary term with her, I can't think of one positive experience with her". However, Sandbæk's comments were then strongly opposed by another former MP Christian Poll, who described Fock as the anchor in the party and said that her attempts to stick to the agreed-upon plans and decisions were too often undermined by rash late night decisions by Uffe Elbæk and the small group around him.

[Diouf]

DPP flex their power by saving the government's housing agreement - Social Liberals angry and humiliated



In the dramatic end state of the negotiations about the government's housing bill, the DPP decided to make an agreement with the Government, SPP, the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative. Just a few days before, the Housing Minister Kaare Dybvad had called off the negotiations as he was unable to find a majority for the government's proposal.

The main point of disagreement concerned the rules regulating how and when housing owners can raise the rent after improving the standard of the housing. The government and three of its support parties proposed a ten-year waiting period for rent increases after housing improvements by a new housing owner, with an exception for improvements which have a large energy efficiency benefit. During the negotiations, they loosened their demand to a seven-year waiting period, but would not renege on including a waiting period as they argue that rents are rising too fast in urban centers, and that too many shortsighted investors have bought up apartment blocks to make profits by making housing improvements and introduce significantly higher rents. However, the Social Liberals and the Blue Bloc parties argue that such a waiting period would strongly decourage improvements of the privately-owned housing stock, and could see urban centers return to the poor quality from a few decades ago. Also they argue it could significantly reduce the share value for owners of an apartment in a housing cooperative apartment as the value of the housing would decrease with less interest from investors.

The Social Liberals had largely been blamed by Dybvad for the break-down in talks, but after his announcement, the party decided to conduct their own negotiations with all the Blue Bloc parties, which together could form a majority without the government. However, shortly before the agreement between those parties were meant to be finalized, the DPP decided to contact the Minister and conduct separate negotiations. They settled on an agreement with a five-year waiting period for rent increases and easier energy efficiency exceptions, which DPP would then provide the decisive votes for.

An interesting negotiation process, which have again laid bare the special situation for the Social Liberals and DPP in relation to the other parties in their bloc, as their economic positions might converge easier with the other bloc of parties. So this could be a dress rehearsal for how things might unfold in the negotiations about the government's biggest prestige project, the differentiated retirement age. So far the government does not seem worried about frustrating the Social Liberals, but if it continues like this, the resentment could build to unsustainable levels.

[Diouf]

Today the Alternative choose their new leader at the extraordinary party congress in the Amager Bio concert hall in Copenhagen.
The party congress can be followed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVqOj4EoOqo

The programme in CET.

16:15 Speech by departing leader Uffe Elbæk

Presentation by candidates:
16.20 Sascha Faxe
16.25 Josephine Fock
16.30 Rasmus Nordqvist
16.35 Mira Issa Bloch
16.40 Rasmus Foged
16.45 Theresa Scavenius
16.50 Debate between the candidates

17.45 1st round of voting
18.30 Results
18.40 Potential 2nd round of voting
19.00 Results
19.10 Potential 3rd round of voting
19.40 Results

If no candidate gets more than 50% in the first round, the top 4 candidates proceed to the second round. If no candidate gets more than 50% in the second round, the top 2 candidates proceed to the third and final round.

[Diouf]

Result of the first round of votes

Josephine Fock - 567/33,5%
Theresa Scavenius - 451/26,6%
Rasmus Nordqvist - 403/23,8%
Sascha Faxe - 216/12,7%
Mira Issa Bloch - 29/1,7% (eliminated)
Rasmus Foged -29/1,7% (eliminated)

The three expected frontrunners are in front, but the race looks quite tight. The two eliminated candidates, Bloch and Foged, did not get a lot of votes, so the big question in the second round is whether other votes are movable. Faxe was a relatively distant fourth, so if her 216 voters want some influence over who reaches the final two, they could be decisive. Fock looks very likely to make the final round, but the race for the second spot between Scavenius and Nordqvist looks very open.

[Diouf]

Result of the second round of votes

Josephine Fock - 599/37,0%
Theresa Scavenius - 443/27,3%
Rasmus Nordqvist - 418/25,8% - eliminated
Sascha Faxe - 160/9,9% - eliminated

Nordqvist, the only current MP in the race, is eliminated alongside Sascha Faxe. Fock's vote count progressed, while Scavenius actually lost a few votes. That does not bode well for Scavenius in the final round. Nordqvist and Fock had their disagreements when in parliament together, with Nordqvist close to Elbæk on a more idealistic, dreamy way. However, the question is whether that will make Nordqvist voters move in large portions to Scavenius, who, although very idealistic, is quite radical and has criticized the party's compromises.

[Diouf]

Josephine Fock new leader of the Alternative



Josephine Fock - 936/58,4%
Theresa Scavenius - 668/41,6%

Fock wins by a relatively comfortable margin. She has encouraged a closer cooperation with the government, but the question is of course whether they will be able to have a distinct profile in this cooperation. Especially, if the Vegan Party becomes eligible for the next general election as a more radical alternative. Also the Alternative will now have a leader, who is not in parliament, and which had quite some disagreements with members of the current five-MP group. Her and Nordqvist had to both step down from their leadership posts during the 2015-2019 term because of disagreements between their two wings. And with Elbæk on the Nordqvist wing, it is interesting whether the personal relations between them will be less explosive now.

[Diouf]

Early February status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.
The three most interesting parties are:

Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 11 547 (+ 1 093 since early January)
Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 10 608 (+ 1 666)
Fremad (Forward) is at 2 347 (+204)

There was a bit of a post-Christmas slowdown for all the parties. However, the Christian Democrats are still safely moving towards becoming eligible again. Whether the Vegan Party will make it is more doubtful, but these numbers are no catastrophe. If they can pick up speed again, they still have a decent shot. Forward made very little progress, and does not currently look like they have much of a chance.

[Diouf]

The Alternative has been below the threshold in the two recent polls as the party's two main fractions have entered into an all-out war after the election of Josephine Fock as leader. Megafon's poll for TV2 and Politiken has them at 1.7%, and Voxmeter's running poll has them at 1.5%. After Fock was elected leader, against the wish of the ancient regime with Uffe Elbæk and Rasmus Nordqvist, there have been attacks flowing back and forward. Former MPs and party officials have openly attacked each other, both in heated discussions on social media and in a briefing war in the newspapers. The Fock supporters describe her as trying to create a bit of stability and decency in a completely unstructured Elbæk-led party with an unhealthy sexualized party culture, while Elbæk's wing describe her as a brutal and cynical figure who would frequently abuse MPs and employees. An article in the Information newspaper even described accusations of Fock physically shaking employees. The current MPs and Fock have only been slightly more concealed in criticizing each other, with Elbæk making a point of the parliamentary group distributing its spokespersons posts itself without influence of Fock and making comments that was intended to confirm some of the accusations against Fock. Fock openly said that Elbæk and Nordqvist seemed less interested in cooperating with her than the three other MPs.

It seems like the relationship between the Fock and Elbæk/Nordqvist camps is completely unworkable. Fock could hope that Elbæk or Nordqvist accept their defeat and withdraw as MPs, because their two replacements, Carolina Magdalene Maier and Sascha Faxe, seem to be in Fock's camp and could give her someone to trust in the parliamentary group.

[Diouf]

Early March status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.
The three most interesting parties are:

Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 12 693 (+ 1 146 since early February)
Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 12 386 (+ 1 778)
Fremad (Forward) is at 2 447 (+100)

Christian Democrats remain on their high pace towards eligibility and will likely be the party with the most signatures at the start of April. The Vegan Party is still in the grey zone, where eligibility looks possible but not certain. Forward still not moving much.

The Vegan Party might be helped by the meltdown in the Alternative. Niko Grünfeld, the party's former Mayor of Culture in Copenhagen and belonging to the Elbæk inner circle, has left the party due to Fock's leadership and will be an independent in Copenhagen City Council, on the other hand the party's only real mayor, Sofie Valbjørn in Fanø, has said that she can't see herself remaining in the party if Fock is toppled as leader. On Saturday the party's executive committee will meet and take evidence about the reports of abuse by Fock, something which Uffe Elbæk has publicly said he will give. The party's executive committee seems like it's split as well, so the outcome of that meeting could go in many directions.

[Diouf]

Epinion poll for Altinget and DR of leader popularity.
People were asked whether they know the party leader, and then whether they are positively, neutrally or negatively disposed towards the leader.

Søren Pape Poulsen (Conservative) 8% don't know, 45% positive & 23% negative (+22)
Mette Frederiksen (Social Democrats) 4% don't know, 50% positive & 29% negative (+21)
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (Liberals) 9% don't know, 43% positive & 26% negative (+17)
Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 11% don't know, 38% positive & 27% negative (+11)
Pernille Skipper (Red-Green) 10% don't know, 38% positive & 30% negative (+8)

Kristian Thulelsen Dahl (DPP) 7% don't know, 32% positive & 39% negative (-7)
Morten Østergaard (Social Liberals) 11% don't know, 27% positive & 38% negative (-11)
Alex Vanopslagh (Liberal Alliance) 40% don't know, 8% positive & 31% negative (-23)
Pernille Vermund (New Right) 11% don't know, 19% positive & 51% negative (-32)
Josephine Fock (Alternative) 33% don't know, 4% positive & 41% negative (-37)
Simon Emil Ammitzbøl-Bille (Forward) 9% don't know, 13% positive & 55% negative (-42)
Klaus Riskær Pedersen (Citizen's List) 10% don't know, 10% positive & 57% negative (-47)
Rasmus Paludan (Tough Line) 5% don't know, 5% positive & 81% negative (-76)

Fock with terrible numbers as most of those who have heard of her, have mostly heard about Elbæk and other prominent names in the party attacking her + accusations of abusive behaviour. Pape's great numbers are a part of the explanation, why his party has continued to rise in the polls. Right now he is seen as a credible and serious centre-right leader. Ellemann's numbers are also quite good, but the other centre-right parties haven't really committed to him yet. Could Pape end up as a potential PM candidate? DPP and New Right probably like him better due to tougher immigration policies, and LA might be encouraged by more right-wing economic policies. If the Conservatives climb higher, maybe that's in play. Good numbers for the PM, and decent numbers for SPP and Red-Green Alliance, who have been playing it relatively nice as support parties so far. Østergaard is more divisive and will have some left-wing voters despising him as well.

[Diouf]

The Alternative's Executive Committee yesterday declared their confidence in Josephine Fock as leader, but the decision was only taken with a 10-7 majority, which illustrates the fatal divisions in the party. After the declaration, the party's Copenhagen Constituency Committee announced that it "expects the constituency's MP, Uffe Elbæk, to work loyally with the members and the party leader. We have written a letter to Elbæk, declaring that he should actively and openly announce his support for the Executive Committee's decision. If he fails to do that, it would be an incurable breach of trust, which would mean his candidacy could no longer be supported by the constituency". It seems quite likely that the party will continue to fracture. Could some or all of the party's five MPs leave the party and start their own thing, and will the Fock majority in the party start expelling some from the ancien regime leadership circle?

[Diouf]

Elbæk and three MPs leave the Alternative



Uffe Elbæk and three of his fellow MPs, Rasmus Nordqvist, Susanne Zimmer and Sikandar Siddique, today left the Alternative. And the only remaining MP, Torsten Gejl, has so far only said that he won't leave the party without consulting his constituency party members. This incredible meltdown mainly seems the result of deep personal animosity between two wings of the party, whose leaders Uffe Elbæk and Josephine Fock were the two major founders back in 2013 (where the above picture is from). The party, which presented itself with a foundation in values such as empathy, generosity, humor and humility, has seen the most brutal, nasty power struggles and frequent cases of abuse and over-the-top behaviour. Several other high-standing members and party employees have left the party, and the party's youth wing has said that they currently wont participate in party committees. This must of course be the death blow for the Alternative; Josephine Fock isn't the most charismatic of party leaders and without a presence/with just a single MP in parliament, the relevance of them in the public debate will be very low. They are eligible to run in the next general election, but the question is whether they will last. Certainly the red bloc can hope so, so they avoid some wasted votes for the party. The question is what Elbæk and the other MPs will do; will they try to form a new party, simply sit out the term or leave parliament in the coming months? Elbæk has by far the biggest profile, and could perhaps get some people behind him for a new project, although his profile must also be tarnished quite a bit after this. Before the election, I mentioned the possibility that Sikandar Siddique, with his background as formerly having Hizb-ut-Tahrir links and was a 9/11-conspiracy believer, could maybe end up creating a Danish DENK. His profile in public is not very big, but he was centerpiece in the outreach the Alternative started to minorities in the Copenhagen environs before the election.

[Diouf]

Uffe Elbæk announced today that he and his three fellow ex-Alternative MPs will work together as the Free Green Voices in parliament with common group meetings and representing each other in votes and negotiations. He says that it's not a party yet, but that he is open to everything. He adds that he had decided that this was his last term, and he still feels that way currently.

[Diouf]

Early April status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 182 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.
The three most interesting parties are:

Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 14 375 (+ 1 989 since early March)
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 14 034 (+ 1 341)
Fremad (Forward) is at 2 553 (+106)

Christian Democrats now with the most signatures, and still safely on their way towards eligibility. The Vegan Party remains in the grey zone, where eligibility certainly is possible. They could be helped somewhat by the complete implosion of the Alternative, and must hope that the Free Green Voices will not amount to a real party. Forward is still a dead-end.