Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Less than a year after their marriage, Søren Pape is getting divorced from Josue Medina Vasquez. This comes following several revelations about untruths Pape has said in public about Medina Vasquez' heritage and religion, some which Pape have stated are do to being told wrong things by his husband while others were blamed on misunderstandings. Previously Medina Vasquez had been in the limelight after a DUI sentence in early 2018. Also, he was the victim of assault in May 2018, while out partying late. The Slovak citizen, who was sentenced, claimed it was to fence off Vasquez' overtures, while Medina Vasquez portrayed it as a hate crime.

[Diouf]

Uffe Elbæk encourages Green cooperation

Uffe Elbæk, the Independent Green MP and co-founder of both the Alternative and the Independent Greens, have today encouraged the three Green parties to unite. Elbæk says that "If we are to solve the climate crisis, then the Alternative and the Independent Greens should be able to find common ground". This goes directly against what the Independent Greens leader Sikandar Siddique said just two days ago, where he clearly rejected the idea. Siddique called the Alternative "a centrist party" and rejected Green Alliance as a "borgerlig party which is in favour of economic growth".
Elbæk also criticizes his own party's recent campaign, where they show leading CEOs in bad situations and name them as "anti climate activists". Elbæk says that "Everybody who knows me, know that I have strong principles to always go for the ball, not the man. You need to respect your opponents, no matter who they are".

Both the Vegan Party and the Greens have accepted the merger, so there is now officially an eligible party called the Green Alliance. And while Siddique has been very opposed, both of the leaders in the Green Alliance sound open to a united Green front, and it sounds like they could enter negotiations with the Alternative.

Elbæk has now taken the logical consequence, and is shifting back towards the Alternative. He says he is doing it because he wants the green voices to unite, and the Independent Green leader  Sikandar Siddique has been very clear in his rejection of that idea. Elbæk says that he is very concerned about the prospect of a Blue bloc government with Støjberg and New Right in important positions. He even directly states that he hopes his position as one of the most prominent green politician means that others will follow him in throwing their weight behind the Alternative. It does seem quite likely that we could see most of the others from the progressive, climate-focused part of the Independent Greens follow Elbæk, so the Independent Greens become a more pure minority party. Elbæk says his current plan is to maintain his decision not to run for parliament again.

In the Jyllands-Posten/Politologi.dk weighted average, the Alternative is currently at 1.0%, while the Independent Greens are at 0.6%. The Green Alliance is at 0.3%, but it sounds like there is progress in the negotiations about them running on the Alternative list. This fusion and Elbæk's return should help push the Alternative higher, and if they start polling close to 2.0%, there should be enough tactical voting from  other Red bloc voters to push them over the threshold.

[Diouf]

A spyr.fo poll from the Faroe Islands from late August, shows the two parties, who won seats in 2019, maintaining their seats. Those two parties are supporting the Social Democrats and the Liberals respectively in parliament. It will be a bit more unpredictable if either of the two big pro-independence parties, Republic or People's Party, get a seat, but the former is socialist and the latter conservative, so it would be normal to see them join those respective sides in a government formation as well.

Social Democratic Party 31.5%
Union Party 23.7%
Republic 19.1%
People's Party 16.5%
Progress 5.3%
Centre Party 3.9%

[Mike88]

Any idea when the election date will be announced?

[Diouf]

Any idea when the election date will be announced?

No, just somewhere before or on the 4th October. So if she wants the biggest scene and the most build-up tension, she waits all the way to the opening of Parliament on 4th October. Then she can name the date at the end of her opening speech.

[Diouf]

New poll by Megafon for TV2 and Politiken regarding the party leaders.
For all the questions, respondents can give up to three answers.

Obviously some quite dismal numbers for Carsten Nielsen, and the format of the poll illustrates that the Social Liberals do no have many fans among other parties. While many voters are happy to also say something positive about party leaders in their bloc, and even about the centrist Løkke Rasmussen, then it seems from these numbers that very few other than Social Liberal voters are supportive of the Social Liberal leader. The right wing voters distrust the party on immigration and value questions, the left wing voters dislike them due to their economic policies and because they will no-confidence the government.

The stories about Pape has taken its toll. In the previous poll, he was clearly ahead in the trustworthy poll, but now he is just one of the four in a tight race for first spot. Lars Løkke overperforms his party by a lot, so its interesting whether he is able to utilize that once the campaign starts, and people will see him a lot in debates etc. I thought he did very well in the recent EU referendum campaign. Of course terrible numbers for Messerschmidt, even on competence where he would have probably scored high a few years ago as an eloquent speaker and debater. There is none of the cross-bloc appeal which Thulelsen Dahl had in his good years, and even the other Blue voters seem reluctant to get behind him. Støjberg is mostly on par with the three centre-right leaders. She perhaps benefits from both being able to get support from DPP and New Right voters, as well as a fair share of support from the centre-right.

Who is the most sympathetic party leader?

38% Pia Olsen Dyhr
35% Søren Pape Poulsen
30% Mette Frederiksen
25% Alex Vanopslagh
22% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
22% Inger Støjberg
22% Mai Villadsen
19% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
08% Pernille Vermund
08% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
05% Franciska Rosenkilde
04% Sikandar Siddique
04% Marianne Karlsmose
04% Morten Messerschmidt

Who is the most skilled politician?

46% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
45% Mette Frederiksen
31% Inger Støjberg
26% Søren Pape Poulsen
25% Alex Vanopslagh
21% Pia Olsen Dyhr
21% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
11% Morten Messerschmidt
11% Mai Villadsen
10% Pernille Vermund
06% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
02% Franciska Rosenkilde
01% Sikandar Siddique
01% Marianne Karlsmose

Who is the most trustworthy party leader?

32% Mette Frederiksen
31% Pia Olsen Dyhr
31% Søren Pape Poulsen
30% Alex Vanopslagh
26% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
26% Inger Støjberg
21% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
17% Mai Villadsen
14% Pernille Vermund
08% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
04% Morten Messerschmidt
04% Franciska Rosenkilde
03% Marianne Karlsmose
02% Sikandar Siddique

[ingemann]

New poll by Megafon for TV2 and Politiken regarding the party leaders.
For all the questions, respondents can give up to three answers.

Obviously some quite dismal numbers for Carsten Nielsen, and the format of the poll illustrates that the Social Liberals do no have many fans among other parties. While many voters are happy to also say something positive about party leaders in their bloc, and even about the centrist Løkke Rasmussen, then it seems from these numbers that very few other than Social Liberal voters are supportive of the Social Liberal leader. The right wing voters distrust the party on immigration and value questions, the left wing voters dislike them due to their economic policies and because they will no-confidence the government.

The stories about Pape has taken its toll. In the previous poll, he was clearly ahead in the trustworthy poll, but now he is just one of the four in a tight race for first spot. Lars Løkke overperforms his party by a lot, so its interesting whether he is able to utilize that once the campaign starts, and people will see him a lot in debates etc. I thought he did very well in the recent EU referendum campaign. Of course terrible numbers for Messerschmidt, even on competence where he would have probably scored high a few years ago as an eloquent speaker and debater. There is none of the cross-bloc appeal which Thulelsen Dahl had in his good years, and even the other Blue voters seem reluctant to get behind him. Støjberg is mostly on par with the three centre-right leaders. She perhaps benefits from both being able to get support from DPP and New Right voters, as well as a fair share of support from the centre-right.

Who is the most sympathetic party leader?

38% Pia Olsen Dyhr
35% Søren Pape Poulsen
30% Mette Frederiksen
25% Alex Vanopslagh
22% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
22% Inger Støjberg
22% Mai Villadsen
19% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
08% Pernille Vermund
08% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
05% Franciska Rosenkilde
04% Sikandar Siddique
04% Marianne Karlsmose
04% Morten Messerschmidt

Who is the most skilled politician?

46% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
45% Mette Frederiksen
31% Inger Støjberg
26% Søren Pape Poulsen
25% Alex Vanopslagh
21% Pia Olsen Dyhr
21% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
11% Morten Messerschmidt
11% Mai Villadsen
10% Pernille Vermund
06% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
02% Franciska Rosenkilde
01% Sikandar Siddique
01% Marianne Karlsmose

Who is the most trustworthy party leader?

32% Mette Frederiksen
31% Pia Olsen Dyhr
31% Søren Pape Poulsen
30% Alex Vanopslagh
26% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen
26% Inger Støjberg
21% Lars Løkke Rasmussen
17% Mai Villadsen
14% Pernille Vermund
08% Sofie Carsten Nielsen
04% Morten Messerschmidt
04% Franciska Rosenkilde
03% Marianne Karlsmose
02% Sikandar Siddique

Ouch for Siddique, Messerschmidt and Carsten Nielsen. Rosenkilde and Karlsmose have the benefit that no one knows them and they can surprise positive in election, but those three are all well known and very active in the media and still get such dismal numbers. I think Carsten Nielsen is best off as she doesn’t carry the party on her own and the Social Liberals often take a honor in being unpopular (through the whole skilled rating have to hurt), but both Siddique and Messerschmidt mostly carry their party on their own.

[Diouf]

The Green Alliance and the Alternative have reached an agreement to unite ahead of the upcoming general election. The Green Alliance, which is a month-old fusion of the Vegan Party and the Greens, will join the Alternative. In their press release, there is nothing about the details of the agreement. However, it seems like the decision has caused some division inside the Green Alliance. The Greens leader Jonas Holm writes that he supported the decision of the Green Alliance to join the Alternative to avoid wasting Green votes. However for him the green transition and growth go hand-in-hand, so he (and the other the Greens board members in the Green Alliance) won't join the Alternative, where those liberal economic policies aren't reflected. In relation to the Vegan Party, it is a bit remarkable that just some months ago, the losing wing of the Vegan Party civil war joined the Alternative, and now the winning wing of the Vegan Party will do the same.

Two interesting things to ponder is whether the Green Alliance received any policy confessions, and where the Green Alliance leader will run.

In the 2019 general election, the Alternative won five seats. The first seat was a constituency seat won in Copenhagen. The main candidate this year in Copenhagen is Alternative party leader Franciska Rosenkilde. Their second seat was a compensatory seat in Eastern Jutland, where the party's MP Torsten Gejl will run this year. These two are their safests seats, and will go to the two most well-known party figures. The next seats are less certain. In 2019, their third seat was a compensatory seat in the large Zealand constituency, which could likely be the case this year as well. The former Vegan Party leader Michael Monberg is currently one of the candidates there, so I think the party would like to keep his enemy, the Vegan Party co-founder and leader, Henrik Vindfeldt away from that constituency. It seems more likely that Vindfeldt could then run somewhere else, where he hopes the fourth or fifth seat will end. In 2019, those two seats were won in the Copenhagen Environs and Northern Jutland. But without Sikandar Siddique's immigrant votes in the Environs this year, it's certainly possible that this fourth seat could instead end in Northern Zealand or as a 2nd seat in Copenhagen.

EDIT: Apparently Vindfeldt isn't running either at the upcoming election! So neither of the two Green Alliance leaders will run. So it will now be quite surprising if any Green Alliance candidate is elected to parliament. The Alternative bench isn't exactly long, but I still think the few names they have will then take all the seats. So more or less a straight surrender by the Green Alliance, which didn't seem to have any chance of getting into parliament on its own. Vindfeldt says he has a lot of confidence in the Alternative. He says he isn't running because he has had four tough years since becoming a known face, and that he needs to protect his marriage and take a break.

[Diouf]

Broad agreement on emergency 'winter deal'

This morning the government concluded an emergency 'winter deal' with the Liberals, SPP, Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance, Conservatives, Denmark Democrats, Alternative and the Moderates. The deal includes a reduction of the electricity tax to the EU minimum level for the first six months of 2023, the child benefits will be increased by 660 kr. per child in 2023, the funds allocated to support the roll-out of district heating is increased and the fees on heat pumps are reduced. Also the parties agree to introduce a loan option for those who cannot pay their incresed electricity and heating bills. From november and up to twelve months forward, consumers can choose not to pay the part of their bills which is above the price level in january this year. After those twelve months, customers can wait up to 12 months before starting to pay off their debt. The debt must then be paid off with in four years. Energy companies will manage the loan option, but the state will loan the energy companies the necessary funds and cover the expenses of those defaulting on their loans. There will be a similar loan option system for companies, but with a complicated web of exceptions and loan caps. The deal is partly financed through a postponement of some road and rail projects, a 1% reduction in the state civil service plus an introduction of a dividend tax on foreign states benefiting from their ownership of Danish stocks and shares.

https://twitter.com/jyllandsposten/status/1573234254255132672

[Diouf]

Lars Løkke has further signalled his discomfort about supporting Frederiksen to remain as PM. In a radio show on DR, he said that if he is to support a Frederiksen-led government there must be a independent lawyer review of Mette Frederiksen's role in the Mink Scandal (i.e. decide whether there is a basis to launch impeachment proceedings). So again Løkke clearly signals to the Social Democrats that if they want his support, they better ditch Frederiksen as PM candidate.

[Diouf]

Parliament opens next week, and this is of course the date which the Social Liberals has set as the deadline for Frederiksen to call a new election.

Parliament opens 4 October at 12.00. The parliamentary session starts with the election of the speaker, the 4 deputy speakers, and the 4 members of the parliamentary secretariat. Then the PM gets to make her speech opening parliament. The expected outcome is that at the very end of that speech, she will announce that an election has been called, and for which date.

The opening session should be shown live on basically all Danish news websites. Parliament TV will show the opening session on this link: https://www.ft.dk/aktuelt/webtv/video/20221/salen/1.aspx

If she does not call the election at the end of her opening speech, some have speculated that she could call it on 5 October. There is no open parliamentary business that day, only the election of committee members. But she could then choose to call the election from the PM residence in Marienborg, or some other symbolic location.

If she has not called an election on the 4 or the 5th October, there is a parliamentary session on the 6 October at 09.00, where a motion of no confidence will be tabled and likely get a majority.

[Diouf]

The PM has just held her opening speech to parliament. She didn't call an election at the end of the speech, so if she is to avoid a vote of no confidence, she will have to call it tomorrow or Thursday before the motion is tabled. She started her speech with a celebration of three experienced MPs who won't run in the upcoming election, Social Liberal Marianne Jelved, Liberal Bertel Haarder and Social Democrat speaker Henrik Dam Kristensen. In the speech itself she laid out her positions on what she deemed the four key issues: economy, welfare, climate and safety.

[Diouf]

The Alternative has made another slight consolidation of the green parties. The micro-party Momentum has now joined the party as well. The party was nowhere near being eligible for the election with 1.406 signatures collected, but it does have a leader with some credibility within the Green movement. The party was led by climate scientist Theresa Scavenius, who was previously a leadership candidate in the Alternative. She was among the last two candidates for leader in the Alternative's tumultous leadership election in February 2020, but then left the party along with many others a few weeks after Josephine Fock's win. She founded Momentum, and led the party in the 2021 Copenhagen local elections, where the party got 2.967 votes (1.0%) as a part of a green electoral alliance. In today's interview, Scavenius says she is willing to stand for parliament now for the Alternative.