Danish Elections and Politics

[BlueSwan]

Voxmeter's first poll with a whole week after Støjberg launching the party. Others at 10.1%, and since no other parties are remotely close to reaching the signature threshold, it should basically only be votes for Denmark Democrats. That would clearly make the party the third biggest in the Blue Bloc, and Liberals and Conservatives are only at 13.6% and 12.3% respectively as the two biggest parties. Of course this is after a week with massive focus on her, so not necessarily accurate about how an election result would be. But that position as the third biggest Blue party should certainly be possible to achieve. DPP all the way down at 2.2%, so very close to the treshold.

I wonder whether we will get many more polls in the next weeks. Normally, there isn't much polling during the summer holidays. So perhaps the next polls won't be until mid-/end august, where the early election campaign should basically already be starting.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FW0G-uLXwAA3HOt?format=jpg&name=900x900

Also worth mentioning that the Mink report has had no discernible effect on the Social Democrats poll numbers yet. The report was released halfway through the polling period but really there was massive talk about the report being damaging in the days leading up to it dropping.

I always saw the main risk for MF and the party to be whether it would end up with a impeachment. The truth is that I doubt many normal people really care about this, unless they already dislike MF.

Agreed.

[Diouf]

Denmark Democrats have chosen the party letter Æ in their application to become eligble.

[BlueSwan]

New poll today from Megafon gives Denmark Democrats 10%+ while Social Democrats for the first time see a substantial decline after the Mink debacle. Also, the "blue" parties has a rare slim majority in that poll, but it would be a nightmarish coalition to control.

[JimJamUK]

New poll today from Megafon gives Denmark Democrats 10%+ while Social Democrats for the first time see a substantial decline after the Mink debacle. Also, the "blue" parties has a rare slim majority in that poll, but it would be a nightmarish coalition to control.

Megafon is one of the more blue friendly/Social Democrat unfriendly pollsters, but still perhaps a more ‘expected’ result given a couple of weeks of negative coverage of the government.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A-S&D: 22% (-3)
C-EPP: 13% (-4)
V-RE: 13% (-2)
Æ-*: 11% (new)
F-G/EFA: 9%
Ø-LEFT: 8%
B-RE: 7%
I→RE: 5% (+1)
D~NI: 4% (-5)
M-*: 4%


Sorry for copying from EuropeElects, but can you spot which party is missing?



That's right, it's O (the DPP) who have drifted below the threshold.

[Diouf]

Denmark Democrats now officially represented in parliament as Peter Skaarup has been approved by Inger Støjberg to join the party. Skaarup was one of the co-founders of DPP in 1995, and has been a MP since 1998. From 1998 - 2012 he was the party's deputy leader, and from 2012 - 2022 the party's parliamentary group leader.
Skaarup was one of the safest bets to join the party. A quite non-controversial figure and with a long experience in founding a party, as well as being involved in the leadership. We will see in the coming weeks how many of the other ex-DPP MPs end up being approved. The pro-Russian Marie Krarup can probably be ruled out, but most of the others should have a decent chance. The only question is whether taking in basically all the ex-DPP MPs will paint the party a bit too much as purely DPP 2.0. Still Støjberg need some qualified candidates fast with polls predicting around 18-20 MPs, and a short time to the election.

[Mike88]

And just a few hours ago, the Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen announced what the party has decided. The party says it will not support an independent lawyer review. However, she states that the party demands that the PM calls a new election, before parliament opens again on 4th October. She says the report has shown the ugly sides of the goverment's self-willed and stubborn style, and that it's urgent with a new multiparty government. She adds that the mink case has poisoned the waters beween the governing majority and the opposition parties to the degree that a fast election is needed. The party has said if it doesn't happen, it will vote for a vote of no confidence and the fall of the government, so it should be fairly certain with an election within a few months. But Mette Frederiksen should quite easily be able to live with that. It was probably already a quite likely option that she would call an election in the fall.

Has this dialed down or is it still in play?

[Diouf]

And just a few hours ago, the Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen announced what the party has decided. The party says it will not support an independent lawyer review. However, she states that the party demands that the PM calls a new election, before parliament opens again on 4th October. She says the report has shown the ugly sides of the goverment's self-willed and stubborn style, and that it's urgent with a new multiparty government. She adds that the mink case has poisoned the waters beween the governing majority and the opposition parties to the degree that a fast election is needed. The party has said if it doesn't happen, it will vote for a vote of no confidence and the fall of the government, so it should be fairly certain with an election within a few months. But Mette Frederiksen should quite easily be able to live with that. It was probably already a quite likely option that she would call an election in the fall.

Has this dialed down or is it still in play?

Very much in play. I think the mast vajority of people expect this threat to be valid, so the speculation is mostly about when Frederiksen will call the election. Perhaps some time in late August/early September, to be held at the end of September.

[Diouf]

A minor rift in the Social Democrats might start to get a bit more attention. After the party lost droves of voters in the urban centers in the 2021 local and regional elections, the party signalled it might want to course-correct somehow to maintain a position with strength across the country. So far this has mostly been rhetorical overtures, except perhaps for an even stronger focus on climate issues.

However, a concrete subject from Copenhagen and Aarhus seem to have brought the rift a bit more into the open. Both city councils have, with Social Democrat support, purchased courses in "norm-critical teaching regarding gender and sexuality" for kids from 4-10th grade from the far-left organization Normstormers. Both councils and the organization itself have refused to grant right of public access to the materials used in the courses, which have coursed some concerns about the content of the teachings from an organization, which have adopted all the worst aspects of American identity politics. Just in recent public statements, the organization described the government as being "continually ethonationalist" and described the Danish Federation of Sports as "transphobic" for refusing to let physical males compete in women's sports. The political spokesperson for the Social Democrats in Copenhagen, Laura Rosenvinge, used the McAuliffan argument to defend the use of this organization and the secrecy about it by stating that "When it comes to raising our children with the beliefs that there is no normality with regards to gender and sexuality, and that it's okay to be who you are, then that task is too important to be left to parents. This is the task of the public schools. I will not risk just leaving that task to parents".

A year ago, you would have imagined some of the grown-ups in the party to smack down such stupidity hard and quick, but the silence has been deafening. A major newspaper a few days ago wrote the article "Silence after the normstorms" where several of those MPs, who have normally been very critical of these types of statements, were twisting and turning, and very reluctant to say anything. This illustrates how the party might now be a bit afraid of seen as hostile to the left wing voices in urban centers. However, even the neutral stance from those high-ranking MPs was apparently not enough for Rosenvinge, who today published an op-ed where she states that "an anti-urban, anti-identity politics and anti-woke current has emerged in my party, and which I, as a progressive Copenhagener, has an increasingly difficult time understanding". She accuses this movement in her party as "wanting to please keyboard warriors on Facebook instead of showing empathy towards those things one might not understand". Finally, she escalates fully by saying this movement has made her consider "whether there's still room for people like me in the party".

We will see whether this provocation finally gets leading party members to distance themselves from those unpopular views, or whether they will still prefer to try to keep quiet and hope it passes. The Blue parties will of course try to make the latter option difficult.

[Mike88]

Interesting. The Danish Soc Dems have stood out, compared with their European sister parties, mainly around their immigration policies, and maybe this position may be losing them votes in urban areas, and now they seem to be trying to correct course, like you said, but it seems to be backfiring.

Do you think this benefits the Conservatives? Polls show Venstre, after their spectacular colapse, and the Conservatives neck and neck on who leads the Blue side, but the Cons seems to have the upper hand.

An election also on 25th September? It might be.

[Diouf]

Interesting. The Danish Soc Dems have stood out, compared with their European sister parties, mainly around their immigration policies, and maybe this position may be losing them votes in urban areas, and now they seem to be trying to correct course, like you said, but it seems to be backfiring.

Do you think this benefits the Conservatives? Polls show Venstre, after their spectacular colapse, and the Conservatives neck and neck on who leads the Blue side, but the Cons seems to have the upper hand.

An election also on 25th September? It might be.

Yeah. As I say it's still a minor issue, but one that's been growing during the summer. Mostly interesting for indicating where the problems can come with the divide. And with a renewed provincial challenge from the Denmark Democrats, there isn't a lot of wiggle room away from their current policies.
I think several of the Blue Bloc parties will try to challenge the Social Democrats if they show a bit of weakness on issues like this.
Conservatives proved the strongest Blue party in urban areas in the recent local elections, where they made significant gains. Some of that is perhaps just the general upturn for the party, but it's also because they are the greenest Blue Bloc party. On value questions, they are still very blue, and the Conservative Mathilde Kastbjerg has been the leading opposition voice on this in the Copenhagen City Council.

Late September general election is very possible, although general elections are normally not in the weekends. All elections since 1943 have been Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday. This also means that us poor souls who have to set up (day before) and/or poll work, count and re-count (the day after) the votes do not have to be called in on the weekends.

[DavidB.]

Has Kjaersgaard spoken out about the collapse of "her" DF? If so, what does she say?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Has Kjaersgaard spoken out about the collapse of "her" DF? If so, what does she say?

As a matter of fact, there was an interview with her on the DR (Danish Public Service) website today.

She's basically saying that she feels disappointed and betrayed and blames the MP:s who have left the party for the current issues and that she still believes in and support Messerschmidt as party leader and think he can turn things around.

[Diouf]

Vegan Fusion - more palatable name underway

Today the Vegan Party announced that its leadership has made an agreement with de Grønne (the Greens) to fusion and create a common new party - Green Alliance. Both parties will now call a congress, and if they approve the fusion, the new party will be formed. The new party will continue on the Vegan Party license, and therefore be eligible to run at the next election. The Greens should not be confused with the Independent Greens, which is the Alternative splinter with 4 MPs led by Sikandar Siddique. The Greens is a micro party, which has tried to gather enough signatures to get on the ballot, but hasn't come remotely close. Right now their signature tally is on 676. The Greens have promoted itself as the liberal green party, which maybe was/is a niche worth hunting, although both Social Liberals and Conservatives have fairly strong green profiles if one wants a green focus + centre-right economics.

I think i said from the beginning that the Vegan Party name, although precise, was probably unnecessarily narrow, when they could have chosen a broader Animal Welfare Party name. And it does now seem like both the name and a lot of the extremism will disappear from the party, if the congress approves the change. The leader of the Greens, Jonas Holm, was asked about whether there would still be a demand of veganism from members, and he said it wasn't the case: "I'm not vegan. I eat meat, fish, eggs, cheese and milk, but mostly organic and less than previously. Green Alliance will be a climate responsible, environment responsible, animal friendly, economically responsible and socially liberal party".

Still, despite the new name and a more normal party, there is still three small parties competing for the "most green" brand plus many of the mainstream parties with a significant focus on climate issues. And in most of the polls, the Vegan Party has barely crossed 0.0%, so it still looks very difficult for them.

[Diouf]

Today, we got the first poll after the summer holidays. And the Epinion poll for DR + Altinget mirrors the last poll before the break from Megafon. A tight race between the Blocs, the Moderates potentially with the decisive seats, and Denmark Democrats with a strong start.

Social Democrats 24.2% 45 seats
SPP 8.1% 15
Red-Green Alliance 7.3% 13
Social Liberals 5.8% 11
Alternative 1.3% 0
Independent Greens 0.8% 0
Vegan Party 0.4% 0
Red Bloc 47.9% 84

Liberals 14.2% 26
Conservatives 11.5% 21
Denmark Democrats 10.8% 20
New Right 4.4% 8
Liberal Alliance 3.8% 7
DPP 2.1% 4
Christian Democrats 1.0% 0
Blue Bloc 47.8% 86

Moderates 3.1% 5

[Mike88]

Rasmussen is willing to support the Red Bloc? That's... weird, right?

[MaxQue]

Rasmussen is willing to support the Red Bloc? That's... weird, right?

He is not. I think the whole thing is that he wants a cross-block government.

[ingemann]

Rasmussen is willing to support the Red Bloc? That's... weird, right?

Not really, while Rasmussen is mainly driven by what’s best for number one, but as politician he has always been something of a technocrat. While the existing SocDem leadership is one of the more ideological than in decades, they also see power in a very similar way to Rasmussen than many liberals or conservatives. We should also not forget that Rasmussen is furious at his old party.

But in the end I expect he will support Pape as PM in Conservative, Liberal, Moderate (Social Liberal if the latter is stupid enough to be convinced to join such a government) government against Løkke getting some of the important ministries. Of course it’s not impossible that Sofie Carsten Nielsen will make the same mistake as Hilmar Baunsgaard (Social Liberal PM in 1968-71) and end up as PM for a short lived government.

[Estrella]

Rasmussen is willing to support the Red Bloc? That's... weird, right?

Not really, while Rasmussen is mainly driven by what’s best for number one, but as politician he has always been something of a technocrat. While the existing SocDem leadership is one of the more ideological than in decades, they also see power in a very similar way to Rasmussen than many liberals or conservatives. We should also not forget that Rasmussen is furious at his old party.

But in the end I expect he will support Pape as PM in Conservative, Liberal, Moderate (Social Liberal if the latter is stupid enough to be convinced to join such a government) government against Løkke getting some of the important ministries. Of course it’s not impossible that Sofie Carsten Nielsen will make the same mistake as Hilmar Baunsgaard (Social Liberal PM in 1968-71) and end up as PM for a short lived government.

Why do you think that what Baunsgaard did was a mistake? I'm not familiar with that era of Danish politics, but on the surface using a historic result to become the first Social Liberal PM in half a century even when he led the smallest party in his coalition doesn't seem half bad.

[ingemann]

Rasmussen is willing to support the Red Bloc? That's... weird, right?

Not really, while Rasmussen is mainly driven by what’s best for number one, but as politician he has always been something of a technocrat. While the existing SocDem leadership is one of the more ideological than in decades, they also see power in a very similar way to Rasmussen than many liberals or conservatives. We should also not forget that Rasmussen is furious at his old party.

But in the end I expect he will support Pape as PM in Conservative, Liberal, Moderate (Social Liberal if the latter is stupid enough to be convinced to join such a government) government against Løkke getting some of the important ministries. Of course it’s not impossible that Sofie Carsten Nielsen will make the same mistake as Hilmar Baunsgaard (Social Liberal PM in 1968-71) and end up as PM for a short lived government.

Why do you think that what Baunsgaard did was a mistake? I'm not familiar with that era of Danish politics, but on the surface using a historic result to become the first Social Liberal PM in half a century even when he led the smallest party in his coalition doesn't seem half bad.

Because he got he position as PM, but he had to implement the Conservatives and Liberals politics. It’s better to get your politics through than becoming PM. Over the next decade the Social Liberal also almost completely collapsed. Politics is not about getting the big hat, it’s about implementing your politics in the long term and I think Baunsgaard weakened the Social Liberals for a decade. It’s the same reason I see Vestager as a failure as Social Liberal leader as she sought short term gain over long term gain.

[crals]

Such a government would require Støjberg to have a majority, at least according to that poll. Would RV work with her?

[Diouf]

Such a government would require Støjberg to have a majority, at least according to that poll. Would RV work with her?

Yeah, the lack of seats is the main problem with imagining any cross-bloc majority without the Social Democrats. Social Liberals would then have to be the cross-bloc party, and their existence in a majority would almost guarantee that DPP, New Right and Denmark Democrats are not in such a majority. So it would either require Liberals, Conservatives, Moderates, Social Liberals (+ perhaps Liberal Alliance) to gain 19 seats compares to this poll (if Liberals get a Faroese seat), or some surprising agreement/toleration between Social Liberals and at least one of the three right wing parties, which would likely anger both parties' supporters. I'm not even sure how much a big economic + energy crisis would make that relationsship easier to be agreed to.

In theory, Social Democrats could allow such a government. But that really would take something special. Maybe something like an underwhelming Social Democrat result, a very chaotic parliamentary situation, a economic + energy crisis underway. Then they choose the "responsible way" and allow such a government, and then wait to rebound in the polls and find the right moment to pull the plug on the government.

Where as if you take Social Democrats, Social Liberals and Moderates as the starting point, then you could on current polls have a majority or be very close to one with either Liberals or Conservatives. In this Epinion poll, there would just be a majority with the Liberals if Social Democrats get one seat from each of Faroe Islands and Greenland + Liberals one on Faroe Islands. Such a majority negotiation would also be difficult, but I would rate it more likely than the Social Liberals + Denmark Democrats one.

[Diouf]

Epinion poll for Altinget + DR on the ministers in the Frederiksen cabinet.
The polling asked whether the respondents knew the minister, and then if yes, whether they have a positive, negative or no/neutral impression of the minister.

Below, the ministers are listed according to approval ratings + information on how many respondents did not know the minister. I have divided them into two groups. One for the well-known ones, where less than 25% of respondents don't know them, and for the less well-know ones.

The well-known ones
+24, Magnus Heunicke, Minister of Health, 9% don't know
+08, Mattias Tesfaye, Minister of Justice, 14% don't know
+05, Nicolai Wammen, Minister of Finance, 19% don't know
+01, Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil, Minister of Children and Education 13% don't know
+01, Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister, 0% don't know
-01, Astrid Krag, Minister of Social and Elderly policies, 16% don't know
-02, Morten Bødskov, Minister of Defence, 24% don't know
-05, Jeppe Kofod, Minister of Foreign Affairs, 14% don't know
-11, Dan Jørgensen, Minister of Climate and Energy, 19% don't know
-29, Trine Bramsen, Minister of Transport and Equality, 20% don't know

Magnus Heunicke got a lot of attention during the covid pandemic, and the pandemic is widely seen to have been handled very well with swift lockdowns, an extensive, well-functioning testing and vaccination system, a quick rollback of the draconian measures which other countries kept for long or still keep. And the one bad part of the handling, the illegal mink cull, has barely affected him negatively at all, since all the illegalities were concentrated in the Prime Ministry, the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries.
No surprise to see Mattias Tesfaye high, maybe even expected higher. Mostly known from his time as Minister  of immigration, so with the government's tough migration policies, he must surely receive at least some positive/neutral response from Blue voters. Although perhaps also negative reviews from Red Bloc voters.
Mette Frederiksen, who had a great approval rating in the first year or so of covid, has now become quite polarizing, with perhaps the mink cull and the handling of that case turning Blue and some swing voters against her. But the intensity of Social Democrat approval of her seems almost stronger than ever.
Tbh surprised to see Astrid Krag hit almost even, as she is totally insufferable to me. But she must keep almost perfect approval from Red voters.
Both Ministers of Climate + Environment a fair bit under water. None of them can count on much Blue support, and then the greenest part of the Red Bloc probably thinks they are doing too little too slowly.
No surprise to see Trine Bramsen at rock bottom. Her stint as Minister of Defence was completely hopeless. She handled the case about the Defence Intelligence Service horribly, which ended up with as an embarrasing case for the government and in the relations with other countries. She was very unpopular in the Defence, for example due to her continous humiliations of the leader of the Defence. She stated that his role should be just the same as heads of agencies in other ministries, and wouldn't allow him to conduct an interview without her. The Afghanistan withdrawal was a mess while she partied away, and a pirate-deterring mission went wrong as there was no idea about what to do when catching pirates.

The less-known ones
-01, Ane Halsboe-Jørgensen, Minister of Culture, 47% don't know
-03, Flemming Møller Mortensen, Minister of International development and nordic cooperation, 63% don't know
-04, Kaare Dybvad, Minister of Immigration, 43% don't know
-04, Jesper Petersen, 54% don't know
-06, Simon Kollerup, Minister of Business, 40% don't know
-07, Christian Rabjerg Madsen, Minister of Housing and the Interior, 62% don't know
-08, Peter Hummelgaard, Minister of Employment, 40% don't know
-08, Rasmus Prehn, Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries, 38% don't know
-09, Lea Wermelin, Minister of Environment, 35% don't know
-11, Jeppe Bruus, Minister of Taxation, 53% don't know

Not that much to say about most of these. Suprised that Peter Hummelgaard is not more well-known. He carried through the government's trademark legislation, the early retirement scheme, and is widely seen as among the most likely Mette Frederiksen successors. Other than that, it's mostly newly appointed ministers or those in ministries with very little attention.

[ingemann]

Such a government would require Støjberg to have a majority, at least according to that poll. Would RV work with her?

Diouf is almost certainly correct, but I don’t think it’s impossible in 2011 Rasmussen did offer the Social Liberal the position as PM and that would have been with DPP votes and DPP didn’t object, of course this was primarily tactic to weaken the SocDem and make the new government dysfunctional.

[JimJamUK]

The issue with a cross-bloc government is that it would likely be a death wish to any party that facilitated it. A right wing government with the support of Radikale would almost certainly need the support of the Denmark Democrats or a similar party. Either the latter sells out or Radikale backs a government that is worse on immigration and especially the environment than a Social Democratic one from their voters pov. If the Liberals backed a mostly Red government, then they would absolutely be overtaken by the Conservatives at the next election. Polling has shown a lot of voters like the idea of a cross-bloc government, but in reality they will kick off once they discover their favoured party has to work with party x and implement policies xyz.