Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

Minister of Transportation forced to resign after withholding CO2 numbers

Today, Benny Engelbrecht was forced to resign as Minister of Transportation after the Red-Green Alliance announced that they had lost confidence in him. The controversy rests on the information provided in the negotiations about the big infrastructure package agreed in June 2021. At the time, the Minister said to the parties that there weren't calculations of the CO2 effect of building the new infrastructure projects, and that it wasn't needed because the climate models estimate continued progress and building projects. Instead, the infrastructure package was packaged in the positive green light that it would be CO2 neutral in terms of traffic changes. However, in recent days a magazine has received a lot of material in a Freedom of Information request, which shows that the Ministry had in fact made calculations of the CO2 effect of building the infrastructure projects over several months, but that these calculations were removed from the proposal presentations in the weeks up to the negotiations.
Engelbrecht tried to defend himself by saying that the calculations were way too imprecise to use, and therefore they had been dished from the final material. However, that didn't convince the Red-Green Alliance.

If Mette Frederiksen wants a larger reshuffle before an election, this could be the time to do it. But the mainstream expectation seems to be only a tiny move, either a direct 1-1 replacement or a minor reshuffle with one new person joining cabinet and a few others changing jobs.

[Diouf]

Mette Frederiksen opted for a minor reshuffle to replace Benny Engelbrecht. The Minister of Defence, Trine Bramsen, is demoted to the position as Minister of Transportation. She has been receiving a lot of criticism, and has been quite unpopular in many parts of the Defence organisation. She was seen as humilating the Chief of the Defence by insisting that he is just a head of an agency, like in all other ministries, and shouldn't have any special role. She is also criticized for her handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, the recent embarassing retreat from Mali, the handling of Pirates on the West African coast as well the way she has tackled the ongoing sitation with the Head of the Defence Intelligence and a former Minister of Defence charged with leaking classified information.
To replace her, Frederiksen opted for Morten Bødskov, hitherto Minister of Taxation, while the party's political spokesperson Jeppe Bruus enters cabinet as Minister of Taxation.

[Diouf]

The Vegan Party has gotten a rare mention as the party today threw out co-founder and ex-leader Henrik Vindfeldt. The party says he's thrown out due to offensive behaviour (non-sexual) towards party members. Their political spokesperson Michael Monberg says: "Henrik is a hard worker. But we can no longer turn the blind eye to the way he treats his colleagues. It tears our organisation apart".
Vindfeldt himself rejects the accusation, and says that he wanted offensive behaviour by another in the party leadership investigated, but due to nepotism it didn't happen. Vindfeldt believes his exclusion is due to political differences: "There are two wings in the party. I belong to the moderate wing, which likes to talk policy proposals, and wants to lay the foundation for an agrictultural reform. The other wing wants to focus on shaming the lifestyle of meat eaters. This political difference has been evident for some time, and has now turned into a nasty showdown".

The Vegan Party will have an extraordinary party congress on Sunday. The Vindfeldt Wing of the party has gathered the necessary 50 signatures to call the congress. On the agenda is two points. Should the exclusion of Vindfeldt be annulled, and then there will be a vote to determine whether the members have confience in the current board of the party. Extraordinarly, the media has been banned from attending.

[Diouf]

The Vegan Party extraordinary congress became a comfortable victory for the Vindfeldt wing.
His exclusion of the party was annulled with 120 members voting for, and 29 voting against.
The extraordinary party congress also expressed no confidence in the 10-man leadership with the votes 92 - 43.
The main main behind Vindfeldt's exclusion, Michael Monberg, is stepping down from the party's most prominent role as political spokesperson. When asked whether he would leave the party, he said "details details. I'm not sure I want to do that effort to save those 269 kr. I think others should join the party to save the animals".
Now a new leadership will be elected + a new political spokesperson. It seems quite obvious that Vindfeldt will be back as political spokesperson.

[JimJamUK]

Pernille Vermund has said she supports the governments lower pension age for worn out workers and would block a future blue government from getting rid of it as most of them want to. Given the original similarities between her party and Progress, are Nye Borgerlige already going down the DPP route of pandering to their anti-immigration but not particularly free market voters?

[Diouf]

Pernille Vermund has said she supports the governments lower pension age for worn out workers and would block a future blue government from getting rid of it as most of them want to. Given the original similarities between her party and Progress, are Nye Borgerlige already going down the DPP route of pandering to their anti-immigration but not particularly free market voters?

I don't see a shift. Already, when the deal about the pension was made, she said she favoured the principle of early retirement for those who starting working earlier. Their proposed policies are still mostly around where Liberal Alliance are or further right in terms of economic impact.
I just looked at the New Right's Facebook, and their latest post is one bemoaning how the cost of the tax collection authority has risen dramatically in recent years. In the same link, it says they want to cut taxes with 137 billion DKK towards 2035, so I don't think they can really be excused of hiding their plans. But it's not like they are generally proposing to cut a lot of very popular things, and the earlier retirement age for those who have started work earlier is quite popular. They have always had the argumentation about helping the lesser off; in the early days the party went quite hard in to support a couple of cases with handicapped citizens complaining about the lack of support from their municipality etc. The savings they say they want to make are on immigration, bureaucracy, job centres, state broadcaster DR etc.

They have listed all the proposals in their 2035 economic plan here: https://nyeborgerlige.dk/politik/planen_for_et_borgerligt_danmark/

https://www.raeson.dk/2020/pernille-vermund-dfs-alliance-med-venstreflojen-om-arne-pensionen-skader-det-borgerlige-projekt/

[JimJamUK]

I don't see a shift. Already, when the deal about the pension was made, she said she favoured the principle of early retirement for those who starting working earlier. Their proposed policies are still mostly around where Liberal Alliance are or further right in terms of economic impact.
I just looked at the New Right's Facebook, and their latest post is one bemoaning how the cost of the tax collection authority has risen dramatically in recent years. In the same link, it says they want to cut taxes with 137 billion DKK towards 2035, so I don't think they can really be excused of hiding their plans. But it's not like they are generally proposing to cut a lot of very popular things, and the earlier retirement age for those who have started work earlier is quite popular. They have always had the argumentation about helping the lesser off; in the early days the party went quite hard in to support a couple of cases with handicapped citizens complaining about the lack of support from their municipality etc. The savings they say they want to make are on immigration, bureaucracy, job centres, state broadcaster DR etc.

Thats a fair explanation and it certainly seems like the party is still comfortably right wing on economics. Still, it does seem notable that she would go to a trade union event and announce she would block a key policy of the other major right wing parties, and she has been attacked by LA as the 'New Social Democrats' (which is mostly politicking tbf, but does suggest Vermund wants her party to be seen as less dogmatically right wing than some of the competition).

[Diouf]

Thats a fair explanation and it certainly seems like the party is still comfortably right wing on economics. Still, it does seem notable that she would go to a trade union event and announce she would block a key policy of the other major right wing parties, and she has been attacked by LA as the 'New Social Democrats' (which is mostly politicking tbf, but does suggest Vermund wants her party to be seen as less dogmatically right wing than some of the competition).

Yeah, LA will tend to have a argumentation that is more idealogical and economist-sounding (and therefore probably more consistent), while New Right will tend to argue somewhat more populist. But I think that puts New Right quite neatly on the position of the Progress Party, which made its arguments in a quite similar fashion with quite wide-reaching economic proposals.

[Diouf]

Martin Henriksen has left DPP as he says he cannot continue in the party with Messerschmidt as leader. He stays as councillor in Stevns, now as an independent. Henriksen leaving the party means that ex-MEP Anders Visitisen will replace him in the party board, where Messerschmidt now has a majority. The parliamentary group, however, still has a majority opposed to him, which was made visible when the party's MP voted on the remaining members of the parliamentary group leadership. For the role as parliamentary group leader, Messerschmidt's candidate, Rene Christensen, got 7 votes while Peter Skaarup got 8 votes with one blank. For parliamentary group secretary, Hans Kristian Skibby got 10 votes while Messerschmidt-supported Dennis Flydtkjær only got six votes. So it seems clear now that Messerschmidt can only count on the support of the five MPs who supported him in the leadership race, while 10 of 16 are mostly opposed to him. Not an easy way to run a group. No defections from the parliamentary group yet, although Marie Krarup has been very aggressive in her criticism of Pia Kjærsgaard (and thereby also Messerschmidt), so Krarup seems first in line to leave. 
Most of the administrative top staff of the party in parliament has left their roles, and is to be replaced by Messerschmidt-supporters.

[JimJamUK]

Had a play about with the Epinion vote transfer polling since 2019. The numbers listed below are for an average of their 7 2021 polls, its less up to date but does minimise the large margin of error of any individual poll.

SD - Very good vote retention of about 85%. Small losses to all the usual suspects and interestingly NB (though i suppose it does chime with NBs surprising strength among manual workers).
Venstre - Horrible vote retention of course. About 25% of their 2019 vote is going Conservative (representing 6% of all voters) as well as 8% to NB and 6% to SD.
DF - Like Venstre only holding onto about 50% of their 2019 vote. 1/5 going to NB, about 1/10 going both SD and KF (though the trend is the former down and latter up).
RV - Slightly better vote retention than previous 2 parties. About 15% going SD, and close to 10% KF. Also ~5% gains by Venstre, SF and interestingly EL (not something that would have happened in previous times).
SF - About 70% vote retention. The normal 15% loss to the SDs. While small, a fairly consistent 3% loss to NB which is surprising.
EL - About 75% vote retention. High single digits loss to SD and SF (and unusually the former seems to be if anything growing).
KF - Vote retention in the early 80s (expected it a bit higher given their surge). Losses are fairly scattered, the biggest being 5% to NB and 4% to SD.
A - An utterly awful vote retention of 20%. Biggest gainers are EL on 23% and then in descending order of a few % each time, SF, RV, SD and the Vegans. Only 4% for their FG splitters in the December poll.
NB - Almost 80% vote retention with the rest scattered.
LA - 55% vote retention (though looking a bit better recently). Losing just under 20% to KF and about 10% to Venstre.
SK - No vote retention as not eligible. Close to half going NB as a consequence (though only about 40% in more recent polls), near 20% going DF, and about 15% going 'Other' (which for SK voters will likely mean a lot of non-voters). Also an absolutely hilarious 15% of the December poll going FG (essentially people who think the other pro-immigration parties don't call their opponents racist often enough). LOL.
KD - A modest 60% vote retention. About 20% of their voters are going KF, and interestingly about 10% are going SD (which is 3 times as many as there are going for Venstre, where a plurality of their gains came from in 2019).
KRP - No longer a registered party so no vote retention. A plurality of 20% are going KF, with SD and LA either side of 15%. The last couple of polls have seen KF and SD surging while LA are in single digits (small samples of course).

In absolute terms the 6 largest vote transfers are Venstre to KF (6%), Venstre to NB (1.9%), DF to NB (1.8%), Venstre to SD (1.4%), RV to SD (1.2%), and SF to SD (1.2%).

[Diouf]

Polling average of the most recent polls from Gallup, YouGov, Voxmeter and Megafon.
The pollsters treat the Moderates differently. Some include them as a specific option, while others doesn't since they haven't registrered yet and therefore aren't eligible for a election yet. I have summed it all in Others, but counted it as a party for the distribution of seats. Of course, not every single vote in the others will be for Moderates, but for me it's the best solution until Løkke register the party after the founding party congress in June.

Results compared to 2019

Social Democrats 26.1% (+0.2%) 47 seats (-1)
Social Liberals 6.2% (-2.4%) 11 (-5)
Conservatives 17.0% (+10.4%) 31 (+19)
New Right 7.0% (+4.6%) 12 (+8)
SPP 8.5% (+0.8%) 15 (+1)
Vegan Party 0.5% (new) 0 (new)
Liberal Alliance 2.6% (+0.3%) 5 (+1)
Christian Democrats 1.4% (-0.3%) 0 (new)
DPP 5.4% (-3.3%) 10 (-6)
Independent Greens 0.3% (new) 0 (new)
Liberals 12.3% (-11.1%) 22 (-21)
Red-Green Alliance 8.9% (+2.0%) 16 (+3)
Alternative 0.9% (-2.1%) 0 (-5)
Others 3.2% (+0.5%) 6 (new)

Governing majority 49.6% (+0.5%) 89 (-2)
Governing majority + minor Greenleft 51.2% (-0.9%) 89 (-7)
Centre right to right wing 45.6 (+0.5%) 80 (+1)
Centre right to right wing + Others (likely mostly Moderates) 48.8% (+1.0%) 86 (+7)

[Diouf]

Four DPP MPs leave the party in protest against Messerschmidt

This evening, four of the sixteen DPP MP decided to leave the party as a result of Messerschmidt accession to the throne as DPP leader. Karina Adsbøl, Lise Bech, Liselotte Blixt and Bent Bøgsted have all decided to quit the party. Bøgsted and Bech supported Henriksen in the leadership contest, while Adsbøl and Blixt supported Dea Larsen. Blixt has been a MP since 2007 and the party's spokesperson on health ever since, establishing her as a fairly well-known name on an important issue. Bøgsted has been even more of a hallmark of the party. He became a MP back in 2001 and has been the personification of the former Social Democratic worker moving to DPP. The former shipyard worker has been the party's spokesperson on employment throughout his term.

Last month, tabloid BT wrote that the Social Democrats were trying to lure in Blixt, Bøgsted and Adsbøl. It would be a historic, symbolic triumph for the party if several ex-DPP MPs joined the party.

https://www.bt.dk/politik/socialdemokratiet-lurer-paa-tre-vrede-top-dfere-det-ville-vaere-et-rent-scoop

For Messerschmidt, it's now 6-6 for/against him in the parliamentary group, but I would be amazed if Marie Krarup doesn't leave the party as well. There have of course also been rumours about Skaarup and the Thulelsen Dahl brothers being interested in joining a possible Støjberg party.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Last month, tabloid BT wrote that the Social Democrats were trying to lure in Blixt, Bøgsted and Adsbøl. It would be a historic, symbolic triumph for the party if several ex-DPP MPs joined the party.

https://www.bt.dk/politik/socialdemokratiet-lurer-paa-tre-vrede-top-dfere-det-ville-vaere-et-rent-scoop

How controversial do you think that'd be within the Social Democrats?

[Diouf]

Last month, tabloid BT wrote that the Social Democrats were trying to lure in Blixt, Bøgsted and Adsbøl. It would be a historic, symbolic triumph for the party if several ex-DPP MPs joined the party.

https://www.bt.dk/politik/socialdemokratiet-lurer-paa-tre-vrede-top-dfere-det-ville-vaere-et-rent-scoop

How controversial do you think that'd be within the Social Democrats?

Not that controversial. But it will also require the potential new members to comply with the party line. None of those are mostly known on immigration policy, so in that relation it would be more about the symbol of them being ex-DPP, which I think only a tiny minority of their parliamentary group and base would really complain about. It might be more controversial with say Bøgsted's strong Euroscepticism, which he will have to renege on a lot. I'm not sure if someone like him wants to do that. There is, at the most, 16 months left of the parliamentary term, and we are now at the point, where the election could really come any day. And Bøgsted has said he won't run anymore, so for him it would just be to spite DPP. Some of the others might want to continue in politics, but it will be harder to get a good district and they will have less time to prove their credentials to their new party's voters.

Btw. it seems like Hans Kristian Skibby didn't get the memo about a common DPP exit, so he waited until today to leave the party, so we're now up to 5 MPs leaving. So now a 6-5 majority loyal to Messerschmidt in the group, and then the question is how many of the 5 will stay.

There are now 9 independent MPs, the highest ever, beating the record of 8 from previously in this term.

[JimJamUK]

Not that controversial. But it will also require the potential new members to comply with the party line. None of those are mostly known on immigration policy, so in that relation it would be more about the symbol of them being ex-DPP, which I think only a tiny minority of their parliamentary group and base would really complain about. It might be more controversial with say Bøgsted's strong Euroscepticism, which he will have to renege on a lot. I'm not sure if someone like him wants to do that. There is, at the most, 16 months left of the parliamentary term, and we are now at the point, where the election could really come any day. And Bøgsted has said he won't run anymore, so for him it would just be to spite DPP. Some of the others might want to continue in politics, but it will be harder to get a good district and they will have less time to prove their credentials to their new party's voters.

How strict would you say the party line is in the Folketing, particularly for defectors? Off the top of my head Venstre split over the Stojberg impeachment and in the last Parliament a Social Democrat voted against some immigration policies yet remained in the party so there seems some room for manoeuvre. On the face of it the Danish electoral system (personal votes by constituency) would reward parties for putting up candidates who don’t completely follow the party line and allow candidates to be elected who represent only a minority of a party’s voters. If the Social Democrats are serious about winning over DF voters then having a few candidates who are a bit more anti-immigration doesn’t seem too much of an ask (assuming they vote with the government on the vast majority of other issues/when they agree with the direction on immigration).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are the social democrats to the right of Venstre on immigration?

[JimJamUK]

Are the social democrats to the right of Venstre on immigration?

They’re about the same (though I’m not sure the Social Democrats would accept the characterisation of their immigration policy as ‘right wing’). Venstre are more supportive of economic migration (the government’s new immigration proposal is being attacked by most of the right for not lowering the thresholds enough) while the Social Democrats are de facto a bit more supportive of refugees as their support parties made some demands eg; accepting UN quota refugees. There’s also uncertainty about how anti-refugee/failed asylum seeker Venstre would be if they got the chance to form a right wing government (they obviously wouldn’t have collaborated with NB with Lokke as leader, but the parties seem closer these days).

[ingemann]

Are the social democrats to the right of Venstre on immigration?

A pretty good question, I was thinking long about it and I don’t think there’s a real answer.

The Social Democrats have put immigration into a Social Democratic ideological context, which mean their stand on the issue are much more coherent and because the policy have been put into a ideological context, it also translate far easier to UL and SPP even if don’t agree with it.

For Venstre, their opposition toward immigration run against their core ideology, as such for a big part of the more liberal members of the party the opposition to immigration is solely a populist policy, which they deep down feel ashamed over. Of course a big part of the party including most of their membership are not ideological liberals like the party, but conservatives and for them the a hard line on immigration fit well into their belief and many would like a even harder line.

I would say because the Social Democratic view is more ideological coherent and represent it voters (through not necessary members) pretty well, their implementation of the anti-immigration policies are less populist.

[Diouf]

Another MP leaves the DPP. Marie Krarup, as expected, exits the party. She has for weeks been the toughest Messerschmidt and Kjærsgaard critic, but in recent days her position in the party became even more untenable. Her pro-Russian viewpoints were severely critized by many in DPP. In her resignation, she even says that the part of the explanation is her wish to 'stand freely' in the debate about Russia, NATO and Ukraine

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How has ø reacted to Ukraine?

[Diouf]

How has ø reacted to Ukraine?

Mostly quite tough, but its opposition to NATO + small pockets of pro-Soviet nostalgics blurs the picture somewhat.
A few weeks ago, Mette Frederiksen announced the beginning of negotiations with the US about a closer military relationsship, including the possibility of American soldiers and material on Danish soil. This came at the same time as the Russian build-up of troops around Ukraine.

16 February, the Red-Green international committee, alongside the Communist Party, started arranging a demonstration in front of the American embassy. The timing caused an uproar, and most MPs + other high-ranking members denounced this move at a time of Russian agression. The party's execusive committee met, and voted 4-3 against being a part of the demonstration.

Another significant moment on 24 February. Parliament debated about increasing the current Danish contribution to the NATO troops at the moment, including sending two additional figher planes to Poland + other material and troops to the Baltic countries. Red-Green Alliance voted against as the only party, something which caused quite a lot of criticism. The party said that "Military build-up in the Baltics risks starting military encounters which spiral out of control. In the worst case, a world war between nuclear powers".
https://jyllands-posten.dk/politik/ECE13773696/enhedslisten-forsvarer-natonej-efter-haard-kritik/

The party has supported and demanded the strongest possible sanctions against Russia + sending weapons directly to Ukraine. That seems almost unanimous amongst party MPs, with only objections from a smaller minority of councillors or party officials.

[Diouf]

Løkke finally sent in the official application for the Moderates to be eligible for the next general election. The party will get the party letter M. A fairly obvious party letter considering the party name, and also the same letter used by Centre Democrats for the first 15 years of its existence (1973-1988). The letter was used the last time in 2005 when the Minority Party ran and received 0.3%.
Once the application is approved in a number of days, all pollsters will start including the party in their polls, so we can get a somewhat better picture of the party's standing.


A few more stories running about the Red-Green Alliance + Russia/Ukraine. It was revealed that the party's executive committee only supported giving weapons to Ukraine with a 12-9 vote. Later MP Christian Juhl disowned that decision, and said Ukraine had "carried out a undesirable politics towards the minorities in Eastern Ukraine, allowing the Russians to fish in stormy waters". Executive Committee member, and Russian history scholar, Mikael Hertoft went even further, and said "It takes two to fight a war. That Ukraine has failed to respect the Minsk agreement, and therefore carry significant responsibility for the conflict leading up to the war." Also rejecting the notion of Ukraine as a national state, and saying that "national borders are changed all the time". Party leader Mai Villadsen and many others in the top of the party has been quick to denounce both of them.

[Diouf]

Agreement on support for Ukrainian refugees with big Defence agreement expected to follow

The government, Liberals, SPP, Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance, Liberal Alliance and Christian Democrats has made a deal to help Ukrainian refugees coming to Denmark. The deal exempts those fleeing from Ukraine from the standard procedures of applying for asylum, and instead creates an express track where they will get almost immediately a temporary residence permit, so they are able to work, study and get health care. Those Ukrainians already in Denmark on work permits will also be able to apply for this permit.
DPP and New Right are against the deal because it includes everyone with a legal stay in Ukraine, i.e. including refugees/migrants from the Middle East and North Africa. The Conservatives had the same opposition, so weren't a part of the deal when presented. However, the party's spokesperson in these negotiations, hard core immigration-sceptic Marcus Knuth, might have gone too far. The party has been barraged with attacks from the media and the other mainstream parties. Local councillors have spoken against it as well, and it seems obvious that several MPs were very uneasy with it. So now it sounds like, the Conservatives will end up backing the deal as well.

At the same time, express negotiations have started about a new defence settlement. Three main things seem to be under consideration. The first is an immediate increase in defence spending, the second is making a concrete plan to reach 2% GDP defence spending in 2030, and the third is a referendum on the Danish EU opt out from defence cooperation.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Agreement on support for Ukrainian refugees with big Defence agreement expected to follow

The government, Liberals, SPP, Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance, Liberal Alliance and Christian Democrats has made a deal to help Ukrainian refugees coming to Denmark. The deal exempts those fleeing from Ukraine from the standard procedures of applying for asylum, and instead creates an express track where they will get almost immediately a temporary residence permit, so they are able to work, study and get health care. Those Ukrainians already in Denmark on work permits will also be able to apply for this permit.
DPP and New Right are against the deal because it includes everyone with a legal stay in Ukraine, i.e. including refugees/migrants from the Middle East and North Africa. The Conservatives had the same opposition, so weren't a part of the deal when presented. However, the party's spokesperson in these negotiations, hard core immigration-sceptic Marcus Knuth, might have gone too far. The party has been barraged with attacks from the media and the other mainstream parties. Local councillors have spoken against it as well, and it seems obvious that several MPs were very uneasy with it. So now it sounds like, the Conservatives will end up backing the deal as well.

Hard to accept that that their opposition to immigration is entirely non-racial given their actions here.

[JimJamUK]

The government, Liberals, SPP, Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance, Liberal Alliance and Christian Democrats has made a deal to help Ukrainian refugees coming to Denmark. The deal exempts those fleeing from Ukraine from the standard procedures of applying for asylum, and instead creates an express track where they will get almost immediately a temporary residence permit, so they are able to work, study and get health care. Those Ukrainians already in Denmark on work permits will also be able to apply for this permit.
DPP and New Right are against the deal because it includes everyone with a legal stay in Ukraine, i.e. including refugees/migrants from the Middle East and North Africa. The Conservatives had the same opposition, so weren't a part of the deal when presented. However, the party's spokesperson in these negotiations, hard core immigration-sceptic Marcus Knuth, might have gone too far. The party has been barraged with attacks from the media and the other mainstream parties. Local councillors have spoken against it as well, and it seems obvious that several MPs were very uneasy with it. So now it sounds like, the Conservatives will end up backing the deal as well.

Just to clarify, they are opposed to the deal because non-western migrants legally living in Ukraine are allowed to seek asylum in Denmark? I can’t imagine this would apply to many people in practice so it seems an odd hill to die on given the sympathy for Ukrainian refugees atm.