Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

As expected, Sophie Løhde and Karsten Lauritzen join Ellemann-Jensen and Støjberg in the parliamentary group leadership. Løhde will be political spokesperson, while Lauritzen will be parliamentary group deputy leader (Ellemann himself has chosen to become parliamentary group leader, although in practice I guess Lauritzen will do many of the tasks).

https://twitter.com/venstredk/status/1176482496910909440

In other news, Henrik Sass Larsen, who long looked like the next Finance Minister, is resigning as MP to become CEO of the Association of Venture and Capital Funds. Quite a move for a Social Democrat, who has been very critical of corporate greed and the immoral behaviour of banks and similar financial institutions.

DPP is still confused after their election defeat. In relation to the Social Democratic wish for a differentiated pension age, I think their strategy is completely bonkers. They are attacking the Social Democrats for broken promises, making a counter of time elapsed since the proposal etc, but the Social Democrats are actually working on it and will surely make a real proposal. And then DPP might have talked themselves into a corner, so they almost have to agree to it without many demands. Instead, it would have been an obvious strategy to talk about the idea in broadly positive tones, but say that in order to fund such a model, surely savings on immigration is needed so we need more tighetnings there to vote for it. On climate change, the party has now publicly pondered to support the government's goal of 70% reduction in 2030 compared to 1990, which seems weird and a complete change of attitude compared to the election. And these measures could become unpopular once they are concrete.

[Diouf]

Today, we had the official start of the parliamentary season with Mette Frederiksen's opening speech. It was a quite gloomy speech which focused on the erosion of trust and lack of confidence in the future among the population in several areas. She mentioned immigration as the issue on which there had been the biggest trust crisis, and vowed to continue a tough immigration policy with new tough laws on gang crime, Syria fighters and hazardous driving as well as reiterating her ambition to create a new asylum system without the possibility for seeking asylum on a European basis. She also talked about a lack of trust in police action against crimes, and wanted to continue the strengthening of the police. Additionally, she talked about lack of trust in the welfare state with increasing retirement age and a lower quality of welfare services, which she wants to reverse by introducing a differentiated pension age and hiring more nurses. She also mentioned the government's large ambitions on climate policy and a wish to de-centralize power and remove bureaucracy. The socialiberal daily Politiken's commentator called it "the least hopeful speech since Donald Trump's inauguration speech", Avisen Danmark, which produces the pages with national news in many regional newspapers, said that "she tried to put the platform on fire by talking up the country's problems, so her solutions will seem more pressing and necessary", while centre-right daily Jyllands-Posten praised her for her lines on immigration and decentralization and for acknowledging her party's previous wrongs on those issues, but bemoaned the lack of concrete plans and her lack of  foreign policy focus.

[Diouf]

Socialliberal wing of Liberal Alliance starts deserting



Former MP and political spokesperson Christina Egelund has left the Liberal Alliance because she thinks the party has become too nationalconservative. She argues that the party isn't standing up for international cooperation, that she has disagreements with the party on European policy and immigration, and that the party should defend liberal values like the rule of law (pointing to particularly to the debate about Syrian fighters with Danish passports). Egelund is closely associated with current MP Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, who was deputy leader under the previous regime and Minister of Economy and the Interior. Former MP and Minister of Culture Mette Bock has also backed Egelund's messages today. Former leader Anders Samuelsen will probably have a hard time leaving the party he founded, and I'm less sure that he is so far towards the socialliberal wing. So it will be interesting to see how many of the party's prominent names will leave the party, and of course in particular whether Ammitzbøll-Bille will leave the party. A MP leaving will not necessarily mean much politically due to the party's lack of influence during this term, but it will cost them quite a lot economically as parliamentary groups below 4 MPs gets significantly lower funding. An MP deserting would also send an even stronger message of division. Egelund says she is not joining another party, but it will be interesting to see whether some of them end up in the Social Liberals or other parties.

Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh has rejected Egelund's criticism. He says the party under his leadership has acknowledged that it made some mistakes in terms of going along with symbolic immigration policies like the remote island, the burqa ban and the mandatory handshake at citizenship ceremonies. However, he insisted that it wasn't liberal to have a costly mass-migration from Northern Africa and the Middle East with people, who believe less in liberal values. So Denmark should stop the ability to apply for spontaneous asylum in Denmark, and be able to throw out criminal immigrants. In terms of justice policies, he said the party has kept a liberal line and opposed the government's proposal to increase camera surveillance and that while it supported taking away passports from Syrian fighters, it wanted more judicial checks of the proposed proces. Finally, he argued that the party's EU policies were balanced and liberal with support of freedom, free trade and the free movement of people, but opposed bureaucracy and federalizing ideas which undermined freedom. And even acknowledged that the party might change its stance on Denmark changing its position on EU justice policies from a total opt-out to an opt-in (which LA opposed before the 2015 referendum, that ended with a no).

[Diouf]

Ammitzbøll-Bille leaves Liberal Alliance



MP Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille has left the Liberal Alliance, reducing the party's parliamentary group to three. In a Facebook post, he writes that he is leaving because the disagreements in the party are too big, and he didn't agree with the party line. He says his ambition was for the party to be "a modern, positive, liberal party, which fights for personal freedom with a big appreciation of international cooperation, an immigration policy based on fairness and justice and a serious approach to tackling climate change. We should be Jakob Ellemanns's best friend, whenever he disagrees with Inger Støjberg"

A majority in the party's executive committee had sent an internal letter to the party leadership complaining about Ammitzbøll-Bille's lack of work for the party since the election and his divisive and uncoordinated statements about the party's policies in the media. They suggested that if he didn't start to act in a more constructive manner, he should leave the party.

Ammitzbøll-Bille, a bachelor in social science, became a MP for the Social Liberals in 2005. In 2008, he left the party due to its entrenchment in the Red Bloc and lack of cooperation with the centre-right parties in addition to some personal disputes. At first, he founded his own party, Borgerligt Centrum (Civic Centre), but in 2009 he joined Anders Samuelsen in Liberal Alliance, which looked like a dead project after the collapse of its predecessor New Alliance. But Samuelsen and Ammitzbøll managed to increase the party's fortunes, and get the party into parliament in 2011. In the recent term, Ammitzbøll-Bille was Liberal Alliance's main coordinator in government as Minister of Economy and Interior with Samuelsen frequently out of the country as Foreign Minister.

[Diouf]

New Party Like It's 2007



Today, MP Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille and his former Liberal Alliance colleague, Christina Egelund, founded the new party Fremad (Forward). Ammitzbøll-Bille says that Denmark needs a centrist party with liberal values, which insist on due process and fairness in immigration policies and a stronger European engagement. In terms of immigration, this means opposition to the recent law which allows the Minister of Integration to remove the Danish citizenship from Syrian fighters with double citizenship as well as to the burqa ban and the mandatory handshake at citizenship ceremonies. In terms of the EU, the party wants to remove the Danish opt-outs, except the Euro opt-out.

Their message largely seems like a echo of the 2007 foundation of New Alliance, with opposition to the nationalconservative parts of the Blue Bloc. However, unless the party manages to attract some big names, they will likely have a hard time making as big a splash as the New Alliance. Also Ammitzbøll-Bille's reputation might be quite tarnished by his frequent party changes. While the party's values are undoubtedly reflecting a significant portion of the elite, and therefore might get additional air time, the question is how many voters are on the look for what is basically a copy of the Social Liberals who just wants a Liberal PM instead. At the last election, Klaus Riskær Pedersen, in an idiosyncratic way, tried to make this pitch and got 0.8%. The Christian Democrats, who won 1.7% and were 200 votes away from a constituency seat and thereby entering parliament, also positioned themselves in the Blue Bloc with soft immigration policies.

For the Blue Bloc overall, another new party is probably not what many hoped for after a recent election with five minor centre-right to right wing parties around the threshold, and three failing to get into parliament. Also Forward broadens the span of policy that a Blue Bloc would cover on immigration policy, although with a cooperative Social Democrats the problem might not be that big. Also, we still need to see how many of the minor Blue parties will actually be running at the next election (and whether any new Red parties will emerge). Tough Line and Klaus Riskær Pedersen are both currently eligible to run, since the parties achieved eligibility less than 18 months ago. Klaus Riskær Pedersen has been very critical of the new Social Democrat government, and has therefore changed his mind and wants to run again. However, both parties could have significant difficulties in getting the necessary 20.109 signatures with double approval. The Ministry of Interior has closed the loophole the two parties used last time to get the signatures really fast without double approval, and both parties seem to have little organization and might be considered tiny fads. Tough Line probably has the best shot as immigration is always a hot topic, and there might be events which put Rasmus Paludan in the limeline again. The Christian Democrats are very well-organized and looks very likely to regain their eligibility. They have already collected 3 531 signatures in very short time and must have an easier path after being so close to getting into parliament. We will then see whether Forward is able to build an organization and collect signatures. A new party called Grøn Kurs (Green Course) which wants to build a Greenliberal party has received a little attention, but the founding IT entrepreneur is completely unknown and the party has only collected 287 signatures so far. Perhaps a fusion with Forward could be an option.

On the Red side, there seems to be less new party energy currently. However, Veganerpartiet (the Vegan Party) has actually collected 7 568 signatures, although I belive most of them were before the loophole closed and in a pre-election frenzy. But it would certainly be further bad news for the Alternative if they managed to get on the ballot. There is also Fiskerlussing (A Fisherman's slap on the cheek), founded by a humanist Fisherman from Western Jutland who once had a viral Facebook video by attacking DPP and anti-immigration parties but in a funny Western Jutland dialect, with 1 501 signatures and Feministisk Initiativ with 809 signatures, but neither seem to be realistically getting on the ballot. Finally, there is a pensioner's party Borgernes Folkeparty (The Citizens' Party) which is at 2 206 signatures, and looks unlikely to make it as well.

[Diouf]

Liberal immigration hardliner moves to the Conservatives



Today MP Marcus Knuth announced that he is leaving the Liberals and joining the Conservatives. He says that his top priority is saving Danish culture and values:"If we do not manage to stand our ground, we will end up like Sweden. We must insist that Denmark is based on free, Christian values". He says that in the Conservatives those values are uniting the party, not dividing it. He also talks about the necessity of better conditions for business and agriculture, and states that the inheritance tax on businesses should be removed. An issue which is critical for Conservatives and gets a fair amount of attention right now as the government hopes to re-raise the inheritance tax on businesses from 5 to 15%.

For me, this was a quite unexpected move. Knuth has been a loyal supporter of Inger Støjberg, and she is after all deputy leader of the party now. But Knuth himself only became Spokesperson for Greenland. So I would think personal ambitions have a fair bit to do with this. Because the immigration argument is not totally clear cut. When I listen to some of the newly elected MPs in the Conservatives, mostly middle-aged business woman, they to me sound like the same minority of softliners on immigration which are present in the Liberals. The Conservatives are somewhat to the right of the Liberals on immigration, recently they joined with New Right and DPP in urging the government to do anything within the Constitution, i.e. disregarding international conventions, to avoid foreign fighters returning. However, I'm not sure whether there is much evidence yet that that has changed much during the last years or months. But definitively a poor sign for Jakob Ellemann-Jensen that a fairly well-known figure like Knuth is leaving the party, and blaming the migration question. It doesn't exactly show him as successful in uniting the party. In 2019, Knuth won 9 523 personal votes in the Zealand multi-member constituency, the second best among the Liberal candidates in that constituency.

Knuth, who became a MP in 2015, is also a councillor in Copenhagen. He is the youngest son of the count of Knuthenborg in Lolland, where the noble family has established a popular safari park close to the castle. Knuth has been a captain in the army and served in Afghanistan, he has worked as a Associate at Lehman Brothers and as in the Danish Foreign Ministry as an advisor on Afghanistan, Syria and as embassy coordinator for EU embassies in the areas.

[Diouf]

Five and a half months after the general election, one of the pollsters finally managed to make a poll, which actually included the parties, which are currently eligible to run. Voxmeter is not the best pollster, 4th out of the 5 with an election day poll published, but at least it is a poll. Voxmeter makes weekly polls, whereas the other pollsters have had max a poll a month since the election, and most fewer than that. Others is at 1,9% which explains a significant part of why, the centre-right to right wing parties are down 3,0%. The Christian Democrats are currently not eligible to run, so their voters will make up a lot of the others portion. The poll does not show a lot of change; mostly the centre-left to left-wing parties + DPP are a bit higher than their election results, but this was more or less where Voxmeter had their errors before the election.

In terms of eligible parties, the status is published in the beginning of each month, so we can compare today's figures to last month's for the interesting parties. 20 109 signatures with double approval are needed by the parties, and a signature is valid for 18 months.
Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 8 962 (+ 1 394)
Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 6 789 (+ 3 258)
Fremad (Forward) is at 1 593 (new)

The Christian Democrat party machine is collecting signatures at a high level, enthused about how close they were to beating the threshold. As expected, it seems very likely that they will be eligible again for the next election. The Vegan Party made a quite nice increase with a pace that would be enough to become eligible if maintained. They seem to have been fairly active with demonstrations and meetings at universities, and if they are clever they can probably get some headlines for some stunts/protests in this meat-heavy Christmas time. I'm still not sure they will be able to make it, but it actually looks like they will have a fair shot. The new party Forward is at 1 593 signatures after receiving quite a bit of attention in their first week. Maybe they should have been able to gain a bit more signatures with all that early attention, but on the other hand, they also have a lot to do organizationally at the moment. None of the other mini-parties look like they are close to eligibility right now. Klaus Riskær Pedersen and Tough Line's eligibility runs out in the summer and fall of 2020 respectively, and then afterwards we will see whether they can collect the necessary signatures again, without cheating the state IT system this time.

[Diouf]

Agreement on 2020 Budget: Higher taxes fund increased welfare spending and climate change initiatives



The government, the Social Liberals, SPP, the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative agreed on the 2020 budget last night. One of the big headlines in the deal is SPP's achievement of increased funding for child care staffing with the aim of achieving the so-called "minimum staffing quota" of one adult per three kids in nurseries and one adult per six kids in day care in 2025. There is also increased funding for psychiatry, schools, nurses and elderly care, while there will be a repeal of the 2016 "double education law", which restricts persons from entering full-time, state-funded higher education if those persons have already completed a state-funded higher education on a similar or higher level. In relation to climate change, the parties are simultaneously negotiating a new climate law. In order to meet the high 2030 targets, the parties have created a climate fund with risk coverage of 0,25 billion DKK a year to ensure green investments of 25 billion DKK a year. The Social Liberals ensured some wins on foreign workers by adding additional lower-educated jobs to the "positive list" that allows companies to bring in non-EU workers, removing the fees for Danish education for foreign workers, and by starting a campaign to attract EU-workers in Britain. Additionally, Denmark will take up to 500 UN quota refugees next year and the planned cuts in cultural institutions will be stopped.

These plans are funded by existing funds and by: An increase in the inheritance tax for businesses from 5 to 15%, a significant cut in the state's use of private consultants, more expensive deed registrations, higher duties on cigarettes, plastic bags and PVC, higher taxes on company-paid cellphones and online casinos, a repeal of the "parent tax break" when buying property for their children and a repeal of the tax benefits for stable investors who have owned a large part of shares in the same company for 25 years+.

[Diouf]

Parliament just agreed on a binding climate law, almost all parties is part of the agreement,except Liberal Alliance and Nye Borgerlige
The parties commits to a 70 % reduction of emissions in 2030, in Denmark, no buying quotas and yearly evaluations. Looks decent and a really good thing that almost all parties is committed

https://twitter.com/DanJoergensen/status/1203060921272274944

DPP had been making noises that the would back the deal, so not that surprising now that they are a part of the majority. But I still see it as a quite weird move for the party. It makes them look quite untrustworthy, so shortly after an election where they denounced those voters choosing the centre-left parties as "climate fools". Also, there will still surely be a significant part of the voters opposed to some of the measures, that will follow from this law. But I guess they are very eager to join such a broad agreement and look like a palatable government-ready party, and then perhaps the can renege from supporting the unpopular, concrete measures later.

[Diouf]

What are actual differences between Ø and SF other than genesis/institutional roots of both parties?

SF is very pro-European, particularly as expressed by their MEP Margrethe Auken, and accepts NATO membership, while Ø is against both of these. And then in general, Ø is still more about revolutionary visions with SF as more reformist steps towards increasing the welfare state; it is after all only a few years since SF was in government. But in practice, they will of course largely draw the government in the same direction.  In terms of organization, Ø maintains a special style without an official party leader, a powerful executive committee, and closed party lists for the general elections, which are decided on at the party congress. SF is more like a normal party with a party leader, which largely decides the line, and open lists for the general elections.

[Diouf]

What are actual differences between Ø and SF other than genesis/institutional roots of both parties?

SF is very pro-European, particularly as expressed by their MEP Margrethe Auken, and accepts NATO membership, while Ø is against both of these. And then in general, Ø is still more about revolutionary visions with SF as more reformist steps towards increasing the welfare state; it is after all only a few years since SF was in government. But in practice, they will of course largely draw the government in the same direction.  In terms of organization, Ø maintains a special style without an official party leader, a powerful executive committee, and closed party lists for the general elections, which are decided on at the party congress. SF is more like a normal party with a party leader, which largely decides the line, and open lists for the general elections.

And what about the economic issues?

Red-Green's political vision is more radical with nationalisations, workers' influence on boards etc. But again, in practice I think it would be rare with an economic negotiation, where the two parties would not largely draw in the same direction.

[Diouf]

Alternative leader Uffe Elbæk resigns - can a new leader save the party?



The Alternative leader Uffe Elbæk today announced that he is resigning as leader of the party. Elbæk founded the party in 2013, and it has largely been an one man army in public since. Despite an increasing focus on green issues among the voters and the media, the party's fortunes have declined to the extent that they are now close the to the electoral threshold. A new leader will be elected at an extraordinary party congress on 1 February, and will have the difficult job of securing the party's survival. Elbæk will remain a MP.

Elbæk founded the Alternative after he had left the Social Liberals in 2013. He was Minister of Culture 2011-2012, but resigned after the Ministry held several expensive arrangements at an organization, where he had been actively involved before and where his husband was working. Against the odds, he managed to build a successful party, which entered parliament with 4.8% and 9 seats in 2015. However, during the recent term things soured in the party with increasing internal divisions, a over-sexualized internal culture with cases of sexual harassment and a poor way of handling the party's influential position in the Copenhagen City Council after the 2017 local elections. In an attempt to get some new wind for the party, they launched the idea of Elbæk as the next PM, and wanted to be shown as a party in their own Green bloc. However, it seemed to deepen the crisis as nobody really believed the idea, and some left-wingers might fear that he wasn't a safe vote for a centre-left PM. The party declined to 3.0% and 5 seats in the 2019 election, wasn't a part of the negotiations about a new government and in the most recent polling average the Alternative is down to 2.3%, just above the threshold.

The heir apparent is political spokesperson Rasmus Nordqvist. The fashion designer was among the party's first batch of MPs in 2015, and quickly came to play an influential role in the party as political spokesperson. He was a part of the internal battle, and had to resign that position in an internal compromise at one point during the recent term. However, in 2018 he returned to the post. In 2019, he was the party's lead candidate in the EP elections 2019 and did quite well as he led the party to 3.4% in its first EP election, which was not enough to win a seat. A few days after, he was re-elected as a MP with 1 499 personal votes in the Zealand multi-member constituency. Nordqvist has already received the support of fellow MP, Sikandar Siddique.
Niko Grünfeld for long looked like another potential heir to the throne. He helped found the party, and had worked with Elbæk previously in some cultural projects. Grünfeld failed to get elected as a MP in 2015, but was the party's lead candidate in 2017 for the Copenhagen City Council. The party won 10.5% with 4 005 personal votes for Grünfeld, who was immediately in a position of significant power as the party had the 4th pick among the mayors in Copenhagen. Grünfeld and the party chose the post as Mayor for Culture and Leisure, which caused quite a backlash as the position is largely seen as a lightweight position compared to particularly Employment and Integration, which instead was chosen by Liberals in 5th position. And things became worse shortly into his term, when he received a lot of criticism over purchases of expensive (and avantgarde) furniture to his mayor's office and revelations about untruths in his CV. This caused him to resign in 2018, and probably takes him out of the running.
Other potential candidates could be Grünfeld's replacement as Mayor of Culture in Copenhagen, Franciska Rosenkilde, or the mayor of Fanø, Sofie Valbjørn. Some former MPs has left the party, partly due to criticism of Elbæk's leadership, but there might be a candidate or two there. None of the two other current MPs really look like leadership contenders. Perhaps councillors or regular party members will run as well. The party has (had) a lot of support in the urban cultural elite, so perhaps some semi-famous personality from that circle could be a contender.

[Diouf]

Three candidates have announced their intention to become Alternative leader so far. The favourite, MP Rasmus Nordqvist, regional councillor Rasmus Foged from the Central Jutland region and Mette Rahbek, who was a candidate for the party in Funen at the general election. Candidates need support from 100 members to take part in the contest, and the deadline is 16 January.

Klaus Riskær Pedersen has announced that his party Klaus Riskær Pedersen will change its name to Borgerlisten (Citizens' List). The party is still eligible to run until spring/summer 2020, and would then have to collect signatures again to regain its eligibility.

The government, Liberals, DPP, Social Liberals, SPP, Red-Green Alliance, Alternative and New Right has made an agreement to limit payday loans. The agreement sets the maximum APR (annual percentage rate) for these loans at 35%, loans with an APR above 25% or loans directly to gambling can't be advertised, and extra charges for late payment are limited so the total amount paid back (repayments, interest rates + charges) can't not be more than twice the amount loaned. Also some money is dedicated to debt counseling and more education about household economy in schools.

[Diouf]

Another candidate has joined the Alternative leadership contest, and she looks like Nordqvist's hardest challenger so far. Theresa Scavenius is a social science scientist, whose ph.d was about climate politics, and ran as a candidate in the general election 2019. Here she ran in Northern Zealand and won 1267 personal votes, ahead of the incumbent MP Christian Poll, but the party lost its seat in the constituency. A few days ago, she wrote a scathing review of the 2020 budget, which Alternative supported. She denounced it as "symbol policies and greenwashing" and with the "fossil fuel elite" having the deciding influence. She claims the government has left climate policies to the industry itself with a too big emphasis on short-term jobs and growth. Therefore it seems her style would be less the happy-go-lucky attitude of Elbæk (and Nordqvist) which praises other political parties and accepts small steps and compromises, and more angry Greta-like attacks on the other parties and refusal to accept less radical policies.
Below the pictures, some words on each of the two top candidates from Morten Reimar, who has recently written a biography about Uffe Elbæk



"Despite living in Copenhagen, she decided to run in Northern Zealand because she believed it would be easier to beat the other candidates there. The incumbent MP, Christian Poll, was windbreaker and round-toe shoes, while she was Burberry glasses and Mulberry purses. She didn't engage with local activists, but ran her own campaign with paid employees. Not exactly the Alternative spirit, but it helped her beat Poll. Some in the party found it too calculated and unsympathetic, especially since some of it was financed by big donors with a Goldman Sachs past. But she is one of the party's strongest cards on green issues, with an ethos- and pathosfilled argumentation."



"With Grünfeld out of the running, Nordqvist is now alone in the positions as Elbæk's lieutenant, protegé and likely successor. He has been a good friend of Elbæk before he formed the Alternative, and is in many ways a 'Mini-Uffe' as an urban, gay, male entrepreneur. But many have doubts about his charisma, and whether he will be able to make the party grow. He puts a lot of effort into his subject areas, and knows his stuff. Some wonder whether his plan was to get into the EP, and then return on a later point as leader, when the Elbæk comparisons were less obvious."

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/forfatter-bag-ny-bog-om-uffe-elbaek-her-er-fem-bud-paa-hans-efterfoelger

[Diouf]

An end of the year polling average, based on the most recent polls from Voxmeter, Gallup, Epinion & Megafon (change compared to the 2019 election). There is a slight movement towards the right, but nothing significant. And with the Liberal Alliance slipping just below the threshold, the combined right wing parties would probably lose a seat or two. The Liberals have not gotten an Ellemann bounce yet, and instead it seems like the Conservatives have profited off the disagreements in the other parties (+gaining the popular MP Marcus Knuth). With Tough Line and Citizen List losing its eligibility during spring/summer 2020, there is around 2.0% "free", which should mainly be picked up by the other opposition parties.

Social Democrats 25.3% (-0.6%)
Social Liberals 8.5% (-0.1%)
Conservatives 7.8% (+1.2%)
New Right 3.0% (+0.6%)
Citizen List 0.6% (-0.2%)
SPP 8.0% (+0.3%)
Liberal Alliance 1.9% (-0.4%)
DPP 8.9% (+0.2%)
Tough Line 1.6% (-0.2%)
Liberals 23.0% (-0.4%)
Red-Green Alliance 7.5% (+0.6%)
Alternative 2.5% (-0.5%)
Others 1.4% (-0.4)

Government + support parties + Alternative: 51.8% (-0.3%)
Opposition (centre-right to right wing): 46.8% (+0.8%)
Others (primarily Christian Democrats) 1.4% (-0.4%)

And a fifth candidate has announced her wish to become Alternative leader. The local councillor from Skanderborg, Mira Issa Bloch, has joined the race.

[Diouf]

Early January status of collected signatures for parties trying to become eligible for the next general election. 20 109 signatures with double approval within 18 months are needed by the parties.
The three most interesting parties, who seem to stand a chance are:

Veganerpartiet (Vegan Party) is at 10 454 (+ 1 492 since early december)
Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats) is at 8 942 (+ 2 153)
Fremad (Forward) is at 2 143 (+550)

In December there are several holidays, so the numbers are probably a bit lower than for an usual month. As expected, the Christian Democrats still seem safely on course towards becoming eligible. The Vegan Party also remains on a level that is likely to make them eligible if they can keep it up. One could wonder whether they will have a slight effect on the Alternative leadership election; maybe more people will go for a radical like Scavenius to better fight off the Vegan Party, which I would think could win some of the more radical Alternative voters. A poor month for Forward, which is quite far from the pace needed to become eligible. Ammitzbøll-Bille does not have many easy ways to get attention as his vote is unlikely to be needed in any majority formation, and he doesn't seem to be invited to negotiations as the party isn't eligible yet. And perhaps also a sign of the lack of much organisation so far.

[Diouf]

What ever happened to Liberal Alliance? Can they bounce back or were they just a fad?

They acted in a bizarre way during the last term, was the main cause of the internal "Blue Bloc" squabbling and ended up as a laughing stock. They repeatedly said they would take down the Liberal government if they didn't get all the top tax cuts they wanted, despite nothing near a majority for these proposals. Once the crisis had escalated, they then instead dropped those demands and joined the government instead (which basically continued the policies of the previous Liberal government). Inside the government, they continued to create crises, e.g. threatening to vote against the government's own budget. So in addition to the "normal failure" of being a radical party going into a government which wasn't very radical, they were a common joke due to their intense and frequent threats without following up on any of them.
I think they should have a decent chance of a bounce back. The old leadership, Anders Samuelsen and Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, is gone, and the new leader Alex Vanopslagh seems like a good fit to reconnect with the young, liberal voters. Most of the internal troubles should be finished now that Ammitzbøll-Bille and his clique has left the party, but that did have some negative consequences in terms of party support as they are only three MPs now. 

[Diouf]

Another major contender has joined the Alternative leadership race, taking the total tally to six candidates. Josephine Fock is a former MP, who co-founded the party and played a leading role in the party until leaving parliament in the fall of 2018 to take up a position in the Danish Refugee Council.

She represents the pragmatic "Realos-wing" in the party, and her main pitch in the leadership race is that the party should seeks a closer cooperation with the government and that the party should have clearly supported Mette Frederiksen as PM and joined the negotiations about her majority after the election. So three major candidates each seem to advocate different approaches to the party's strategic choices; Scavenius' oppositional style, Fock prefers a closer relationsship with the government, and Nordqvist is somewhere in between in what looks like a continuation of Elbæk's style.

[Diouf]

Kristian Jensen stripped of all committee posts and spokesperson roles after solo proposal

Kristian Jensen, the former Liberal deputy leader, has tonight had all his committee posts and spokesperson roles removed by the party after his solo proposal which will be on the front page of the Jyllands-Posten daily tomorrow. Jensen proposes a set of wide-ranging 2030 reforms which should be decided with the Government, the Social Liberals and the Conservatives. Of possible reforms to be included, Jensen mentions a taxation reform with higher taxes on CO2-emissions and lower taxes on income and reforms to reduce unemployment benefits for graduates, remove the senior job program which guarantees a municipal job or benefit for those close to the "efterløn" early retirement age whose unemployment benefits have run out, a reformed state education grant (i.e. lower at least for some groups) and a job centre reform (likely privatisation or increased involvement of private companies. The proposal was not cleared with anyone in the current Liberal leadership, which is probably why they're so furious with him. I'm not sure they are actually opposed to many of the specific details, although they might go a big too far considering the welfare line of the party, but the strategic element is interfering with what should be the leader's element. Also the plan about a big formalized cooperation about big reforms does not really seem likely; obviously the Social Liberals are over the moon with this proposal but both the Social Democrats and Conservatives are much more wary. The Social Democrats would certainly not like those cuts in social spending and benefits nor the taxation reform which would probably increase inequality, and I would also think the Conservatives would generally prefer a much more oppositional role towards the government. And while many reforms will end up being made with fairly big majorities, it isn't normally in such a wide-ranging common cooperation.
Jensen only had a fairly minor role in public after his resignation, being the party's spokesperson for Arctic Affairs, but without membership of any committees, there isn't a lot to do politically as a MP. And it is symbolically a big blow for a man, who was Minister of Finance some months ago.

[Diouf]

The deadline has passed to become a candidate for Alternative leader, and six candidates managed to get the necessary 100 backers before the deadline expired. Parliamentary candidate Mette Rahbek did not manage to gather the 100 backers, but Sascha Faxe, another parliamentary candidate, managed to reach the threshold despite a late announcement. Faxe finished second among the Alternative candidates in the Zealand constituency with 1 192 personal votes, only beaten by Rasmus Nordqvist who won the seat with 1 499 personal votes.
So the six candidates are:

Josephine Fock (54 years), MP 2015-2018
Rasmus Nordqvist (44), MP 2015-
Theresa Scavenius (35), parliamentary candidate
Mira Issa Bloch (39), local councillor Skanderborg
Rasmus Foged (41), regional councillor Central Jutland
Sascha Faxe (48), parliamentary candidate

The extraordinary party congress will be held on 1 February, and the election will take place in up to three rounds. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the top 4 candidates will proceed to the second round. If no candidate gets more than 50% in the second round, the top 2 candidates will proceed to the third and final round. Fock, Nordqvist and Scavenius look like the three strongest candidates, but this is the first leadership election in a quite new party, so it can be hard to predict. Nordqvist should be able to get to the final two as the heir apparent and only current MP, but I think it counts against him that he is the status quo candidate + I imagine many would like a female leader.

[Diouf]

With the extraordinary party congress and leadership election in the Alternative on Saturday, the knives are starting to come out.
First, 12 of the 20 party members with a committee role in the party's Northern Zealand branch attacked Theresa Scavenius, who was a parliamentary candidate in that constituency and received the most personal votes there at the election. The members accused her of lacking empathy and humility. They said she stepped on the toes of many members during the campaign, and showed no sign of wanting to make amends as she did not show up for the campaign evaluations. They also raised the issue of big donations from a former Goldman Sachs investor. As a response, Scavenius posted on Facebook: "I understand someone has accused me of lacking empathy, so here's the link to a cat video" with a link to a kitten being bottle fed.
Then former MP Ulla Sandbæk came out with a hard attack against another leading candidate, Josephine Fock. Sandbæk describes her as unpleasant and mainpulative, and said "despite spending most of a parliamentary term with her, I can't think of one positive experience with her". However, Sandbæk's comments were then strongly opposed by another former MP Christian Poll, who described Fock as the anchor in the party and said that her attempts to stick to the agreed-upon plans and decisions were too often undermined by rash late night decisions by Uffe Elbæk and the small group around him.

[Diouf]

DPP flex their power by saving the government's housing agreement - Social Liberals angry and humiliated



In the dramatic end state of the negotiations about the government's housing bill, the DPP decided to make an agreement with the Government, SPP, the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative. Just a few days before, the Housing Minister Kaare Dybvad had called off the negotiations as he was unable to find a majority for the government's proposal.

The main point of disagreement concerned the rules regulating how and when housing owners can raise the rent after improving the standard of the housing. The government and three of its support parties proposed a ten-year waiting period for rent increases after housing improvements by a new housing owner, with an exception for improvements which have a large energy efficiency benefit. During the negotiations, they loosened their demand to a seven-year waiting period, but would not renege on including a waiting period as they argue that rents are rising too fast in urban centers, and that too many shortsighted investors have bought up apartment blocks to make profits by making housing improvements and introduce significantly higher rents. However, the Social Liberals and the Blue Bloc parties argue that such a waiting period would strongly decourage improvements of the privately-owned housing stock, and could see urban centers return to the poor quality from a few decades ago. Also they argue it could significantly reduce the share value for owners of an apartment in a housing cooperative apartment as the value of the housing would decrease with less interest from investors.

The Social Liberals had largely been blamed by Dybvad for the break-down in talks, but after his announcement, the party decided to conduct their own negotiations with all the Blue Bloc parties, which together could form a majority without the government. However, shortly before the agreement between those parties were meant to be finalized, the DPP decided to contact the Minister and conduct separate negotiations. They settled on an agreement with a five-year waiting period for rent increases and easier energy efficiency exceptions, which DPP would then provide the decisive votes for.

An interesting negotiation process, which have again laid bare the special situation for the Social Liberals and DPP in relation to the other parties in their bloc, as their economic positions might converge easier with the other bloc of parties. So this could be a dress rehearsal for how things might unfold in the negotiations about the government's biggest prestige project, the differentiated retirement age. So far the government does not seem worried about frustrating the Social Liberals, but if it continues like this, the resentment could build to unsustainable levels.

[Diouf]

Today the Alternative choose their new leader at the extraordinary party congress in the Amager Bio concert hall in Copenhagen.
The party congress can be followed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVqOj4EoOqo

The programme in CET.

16:15 Speech by departing leader Uffe Elbæk

Presentation by candidates:
16.20 Sascha Faxe
16.25 Josephine Fock
16.30 Rasmus Nordqvist
16.35 Mira Issa Bloch
16.40 Rasmus Foged
16.45 Theresa Scavenius
16.50 Debate between the candidates

17.45 1st round of voting
18.30 Results
18.40 Potential 2nd round of voting
19.00 Results
19.10 Potential 3rd round of voting
19.40 Results

If no candidate gets more than 50% in the first round, the top 4 candidates proceed to the second round. If no candidate gets more than 50% in the second round, the top 2 candidates proceed to the third and final round.

[Diouf]

Result of the first round of votes

Josephine Fock - 567/33,5%
Theresa Scavenius - 451/26,6%
Rasmus Nordqvist - 403/23,8%
Sascha Faxe - 216/12,7%
Mira Issa Bloch - 29/1,7% (eliminated)
Rasmus Foged -29/1,7% (eliminated)

The three expected frontrunners are in front, but the race looks quite tight. The two eliminated candidates, Bloch and Foged, did not get a lot of votes, so the big question in the second round is whether other votes are movable. Faxe was a relatively distant fourth, so if her 216 voters want some influence over who reaches the final two, they could be decisive. Fock looks very likely to make the final round, but the race for the second spot between Scavenius and Nordqvist looks very open.

[Diouf]

Result of the second round of votes

Josephine Fock - 599/37,0%
Theresa Scavenius - 443/27,3%
Rasmus Nordqvist - 418/25,8% - eliminated
Sascha Faxe - 160/9,9% - eliminated

Nordqvist, the only current MP in the race, is eliminated alongside Sascha Faxe. Fock's vote count progressed, while Scavenius actually lost a few votes. That does not bode well for Scavenius in the final round. Nordqvist and Fock had their disagreements when in parliament together, with Nordqvist close to Elbæk on a more idealistic, dreamy way. However, the question is whether that will make Nordqvist voters move in large portions to Scavenius, who, although very idealistic, is quite radical and has criticized the party's compromises.